Europe Is Destroying Itself Faster Than Any Enemy Could | Prof. Jiang Xueqin

追加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Okay, so today I want to talk about Europe and I know a lot of you are focused on Iran right now, on Trump, on the war, and we will come back to all of that. But today I want to argue something that I think is very important and that most people are not seeing clearly. And the argument is this, Europe is not being destroyed by Russia.

[00:00:18]Europe is not being destroyed by America. Europe is not being destroyed by Trump. Europe is destroying itself and it is doing it faster and more completely than any external enemy could ever do. Okay, so let's think about this carefully. I want to start with a thought experiment, okay? So imagine you have a person, let's call him George, and George has a good job, a stable family, a house. He is not rich, but he is comfortable. Now one day George gets into a fight with his neighbor. The neighbor is bigger and stronger, so George is nervous. George is scared.

[00:00:51]What does George do? A smart George says, "Okay, I need to be careful here.

[00:00:54]I need to understand what this neighbor actually wants. I need to protect what I have. I need to negotiate from strength, but also from intelligence." But a stupid George, a stupid George does something very different. A stupid George sells his house to buy a gun. He stops paying his bills because all his money goes on weapons. He stops talking to his other neighbors because the first neighbor told him not to. He picks more fights than he can win. And then one day George looks around and realizes he no longer has a house. He no longer has savings. His family is angry. His other neighbors don't trust him. And the first neighbor is still there, bigger and stronger than ever. Okay, that stupid George is Europe today. Let me explain what I mean because I use game theory.

[00:01:34]And in game theory, the first question you always ask is, "What is the goal?

[00:01:38]What are you actually trying to achieve?" So what is Europe's goal? If you ask European leaders, they will say, "We want security. We want prosperity.

[00:01:46]We want democracy. We want a stable and peaceful continent for our people."

[00:01:50]Okay, those are reasonable goals, right?

[00:01:53]Now here's the second question in game theory. Is your strategy actually achieving those goals? And the answer for Europe right now is a very clear no, not even close. Let me show you why. Let me start with the economy because this is where Europe's self-destruction begins, and I want to be very precise about this. For decades, Europe had something very valuable, and that thing was cheap Russian energy, natural gas, oil flowing through pipelines directly into European factories, European homes, European power plants, and this cheap energy was the foundation of European in industrial competitiveness. German manufacturing, the strongest in the world, was built on this foundation.

[00:02:31]German chemicals, German cars, German machinery, all of it competitive because of cheap Russian energy. Now, what happened? Europe cut itself off from Russian energy, not because Russia cut the pipeline. Europe chose to do this.

[00:02:43]Europe sanctioned Russian energy. Europe blew up Nord Stream, and we all know who actually did that, even if no one in the Western media wants to say it clearly.

[00:02:53]Europe chose to replace cheap Russian gas with expensive American LNG, liquefied natural gas from America that costs three to four times more than Russian pipeline gas. And the result, German industrial output has collapsed.

[00:03:06]BASF, one of the greatest chemical companies in the world, the backbone of German industry, is shutting down facilities in Germany and moving production to China and the United States. Volkswagen, the symbol of German manufacturing, is closing factories in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history. ThyssenKrupp, the great German steel company, is cutting tens of thousands of jobs. This is not a recession, this is a deindustrialization. And Europe did this to itself. Russia did not do this to Europe. Europe chose to cut itself off from cheap energy and then act surprised when its industry dies. Now, think about this from a game theory perspective. You remember I said the goal is prosperity and security for European people. Is deindustrializing your economy achieving that goal? Of course not. It is doing the exact opposite, okay? So, now let me come to the second way Europe is destroying itself. And this is what I called in my 2026 predictions, the irrational re-militarization of Europe.

[00:04:06]Now, I want to be very careful here because I want to be precise. Defense spending is not always bad. Every country has the right to protect itself.

[00:04:13]I am not saying Europe should be defenseless. What I am saying is this, Europe's current military spending is irrational, and here is why. Europe is spending hundreds of billions of euros on rearmament. Germany has changed its constitution, something it has not done since World War II, to allow unlimited defense borrowing. France is spending more on military than at any point since the Cold War. The EU has created something called Re-arm Europe, which is a massive program to rebuild European military capacity, okay? So, where is all this money going? And more importantly, why? What is the strategic logic? The argument from European leaders is that Russia is an existential threat, and Europe must defend itself.

[00:04:57]Okay, let me examine this argument seriously because I use structural analysis and game theory, not emotion.

[00:05:04]First, Russia just fought a three-year war in Ukraine, and it was extremely difficult. Russia spent enormous resources. Its military has taken very heavy casualties. Russia's military capacity after this war is significantly diminished, not stronger. A country that has just fought a grinding attrition war for three years does not immediately turn around and attack NATO, which has a combined GDP 30 times larger than Russia and a population seven times larger.

[00:05:30]This is not a serious threat assessment.

[00:05:33]This is a political narrative. Second, and this is very important, Europe has no path to victory in the Ukraine war. I said this in my 2026 predictions, and I will say it again. Russia controls the territory it has taken. Russia's economy has adapted to sanctions. Russia is producing more ammunition and more weapons than Europe and America combined right now. The battlefield reality is that Ukraine cannot take back the territory that Russia holds. Sending more European money and more European weapons into Ukraine is not going to change the military reality. It is just going to extend the suffering while draining European economies. So, Europe is spending money it does not have on a war it cannot win to counter a threat that is being exaggerated for political purposes. And while it does this, its industries close, its debts grow, and its people become poor. This is self-destruction, not by an enemy, by its own leaders. Now, let me go even deeper because I want to explain why this is happening using the structural model of how the world works. Remember, we have talked about this before. At the center of the global system is the empire, America, and the finance, Wall Street, the City of London. And then around this, you have the multilateral organizations, the EU, NATO, the WTO, which create the appearance of fairness and rules while actually serving the empire's interests. Now, what is Europe in this system? Europe is a subordinate of the American empire. It is not an equal partner. And historically, this worked okay for Europe because in return for subordination, Europe got protection, access to American markets, and most importantly, it got to rebuild itself after World War II using American investment and the stability of the American-led order. But, that deal has changed, and this is critical. America under Trump is no longer offering Europe protection in exchange for subordination. America is now demanding that Europe pay for its own military, buy American weapons, buy American LNG, reduce its trade surplus with America, and still remain politically loyal and strategically subordinate. In other words, America wants Europe to pay all the costs of subordination and get none of the benefits. And what does Europe do? Does it push back? Does it negotiate? Does it explore alternative relationships? No, Europe crawls. Europe begs. Europe increases its military spending exactly as America demands, buys more American weapons exactly as America demands, pays higher prices for American gas exactly as America demands, and calls itself independent while doing all of this. I want to give you an analogy here. Think about an employee.

[00:08:11]You have an employee who has worked for a company for 30 years. The company used to pay him well and give him good benefits. Then new management comes in and says, "You know what? We're cutting your salary, we're cutting your benefits, but we still need the same loyalty and same work." A smart employee looks for a new job, but this employee, this is Europe. This employee works even harder, accepts lower pay, and thanks management for the opportunity to serve.

[00:08:37]Okay, that is not dignity, that is not strategic thinking. That is what I call strategic capture, where a subordinate becomes so dependent on the dominant power that it cannot even imagine alternatives, even when the dominant power is actively harming it. Okay, now let me talk about the political dimension, because this is where the self-destruction gets very personal for European citizens. I want to ask you a simple question. What is the approval rating of European leaders right now? Do you know? Germany's Chancellor recently had an approval rating around 15% to 20%. France's Macron was at 20%. Most European governments are deeply unpopular. Some are barely in the single digits among their own people. And why?

[00:09:18]Because the European people understand something that their leaders pretend not to understand. The European people understand that cutting off cheap Russian energy made them poorer. They understand that sending money to Ukraine did not make them safer. They understand that their industries are closing and their living standards are falling while their leaders talk about values and democracy and the rules-based order. The German people are protesting in the streets against remilitarization. The French people are protesting against economic decline. The Italian people elected a government that was supposed to push back against Brussels, but then quickly fell back into line because Brussels controls the money. The Hungarian leader, Viktor Orban, is the only European leader who says out loud what millions of Europeans think privately. And the entire EU establishment treats him like a criminal for doing so. Now, here is the game theory insight. When a government consistently acts against the interests of its own people, what happens? One of two things. Either the people eventually change the government through elections, and we are starting to see this across Europe with the rise of what they call populist or far-right parties, or the government maintains its position by suppressing the alternatives by calling anyone who disagrees with the mainstream narrative a Russian agent or a useful idiot. And this is exactly what we are seeing in Europe. The political system is becoming more authoritarian precisely because the mainstream policies have failed, and the leaders know it. They cannot win the argument on substance, so they try to win it by delegitimizing the opposition. This is how democracies destroy themselves from within, not through external invasion, but through internal failure of governance. Now, I want to come to what I think is the most important insight about Europe's situation. And this comes from structural history. So, let me ask you a question. Can you think of an empire in history that tried to maintain control of a subordinate by making that subordinate poorer and weaker and more desperate? And can you tell me how that worked out? Actually, let me give you some examples. The British Empire in the 19th and early 20th century tried to maintain control of its colonies by extracting their wealth and keeping them dependent. And what happened? The colonies became poor and resentful, and they eventually broke free because you cannot maintain loyalty through exploitation. The moment people have an alternative, they take it. Rome tried to maintain control of its provincial allies by demanding tribute while providing less and less protection. And what happened? The provincial allies started looking for better deals. Some went to Rome's enemies. The empire fragmented from the outside because it had already lost the loyalty of its partners from the inside. Now apply this to Europe. America is demanding more and more from Europe, more military spending, more LNG purchases, more political loyalty while providing less and less in return, less security, less market access, less diplomatic support.

[00:12:16]And European people are getting poorer as a result. The structural prediction from history is very clear. This situation is not stable. It will either end with Europe finding a new strategic direction, which requires new leadership with the courage to break from American strategic capture, or it will end with Europe continuing to decline until the political pressure becomes unmanageable and the system breaks in a disorderly way. And right now Europe is on the second path, not because Russia is attacking it, because its own leaders cannot think independently. Okay? Now let me be very precise about what Europe should be doing instead because I do not just want to criticize, I want to give you the game theory analysis of the better strategy. The correct European strategy from a pure self-interest perspective, using game theory, is what I call strategic diversification. Here is the principle. In game theory, you never want to be fully dependent on one partner because full dependence means the partner can exploit you. The more options you have, the more leverage you have. The more leverage you have, the better deal you can negotiate. So what does strategic diversification look like for Europe? It looks like this. Europe reopens energy discussions with Russia, not because Russia is a friend, but because cheap energy is in Europe's economic interest and geography makes Russia the natural supplier. Europe also develops its own energy capacity, renewables, nuclear, to reduce dependence on any single source. Europe maintains its relationship with America, but negotiates from strength, not from fear. And Europe builds its own independent industrial and technological capacity rather than hollowing it out.

[00:13:49]Now, you might say, "But isn't this what Europe always intended to do? Strategic autonomy?" Yes. European leaders talk about strategic autonomy constantly. But talking about strategic autonomy while doing the exact opposite, increasing dependence on American weapons, American gas, American political direction, is not strategy. It is theater. The reason Europe cannot execute real strategic autonomy is the same reason that subordinates in any hierarchical system struggle to break free. Because real autonomy requires short-term cost for long-term benefit. And European leaders are not thinking 20 years ahead. They are thinking about the next election cycle, about what Washington says today, about what will keep them in power for the next four years. This is the tragedy of European leadership right now. They are intelligent people making catastrophically stupid choices because their incentive structures push them toward American approval rather than European prosperity. Let me now bring everything together because I want to give you the predictive framework, not as prophecy, but as structural analysis.

[00:14:52]I have been saying for a long time now that the American empire is in decline.

[00:14:56]And what I want you to understand is that an empire in decline does not fall alone. It drags its subordinates down with it. And right now Europe is being dragged down by the declining American empire faster than any external enemy could ever drag it down. Here is the pattern I see playing out. One, Europe continues to spend on military it cannot afford while its industrial base continues to shrink. This creates more fiscal pressure, more debt, more austerity for ordinary people. Two, the political pressure from declining living standards continues to build.

[00:15:29]Alternative political movements, what the mainstream calls populists, continue to grow across Europe. Three, at some point there is a political breaking point. A government in a major European country, France, Germany, Italy, shifts direction. Not because of ideology, because the economic situation forces a different approach. Four, when that happens, the entire European strategic posture shifts rapidly because the current European policy is not based on genuine popular support. It is based on elite consensus. And when that elite consensus breaks, it will break fast.

[00:16:02]How fast? I cannot tell you when exactly. Empires and their subordinates do not fall on a schedule, but I can tell you from structural history, the trajectory is clear. The Roman Empire's provincial allies did not break away all at once on a specific date. But once the process started, it moved very quickly.

[00:16:20]The British Empire did not decolonize on a schedule, but once India left in 1947, the rest followed within decades. Once the first major European government breaks from the current strategic direction, others will follow. And when it happens, the narrative in Europe will change completely. What today is called pro-Russian appeasement will tomorrow be called strategic realism. What today is called dangerous populism will tomorrow be called common sense policy. This is how these things always work. The mainstream narrative shifts to justify the new reality. Okay, so let me leave you with the big picture, the structural insight, the thing I want you to carry away from today's lecture. Europe's problem is not Russia. Europe's problem is not Trump. Europe's problem is much simpler and much older than any of these specific figures or conflicts. Europe's problem is this, it forgot what empire means. Empire means someone uses you for their benefit, not yours. And when your interests and the empire's interests align, things are fine. But when they diverge, as they are diverging now, very sharply, you have a choice. Do you serve the empire, or do you serve your people?

[00:17:26]Right now, European leaders are choosing the empire, and their people are paying the price. And that is why I say Europe is destroying itself faster than any enemy could. Because no external enemy could convince Germany to shut down its own factories. No external enemy could convince France to spend money it doesn't have on a war it cannot win. No external enemy could convince the European Union to pay three times more for energy, and call it a strategic choice. Only bad leadership can do that.

[00:17:54]And that is what Europe has right now.

[00:17:56]But history is very clear about this.

[00:17:58]Bad leadership does not last forever.

[00:18:01]The question is only how much damage is done before it changes. Okay, so that is my analysis for today. Remember, this is not prophecy. I am using structural history and game theory to analyze the patterns. Question everything I say.

[00:18:14]Test it against the evidence, and keep your minds open.