Strait of Hormuz Closure: Daily Cost Shocks Global Economy | WION

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]With every day of the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue, the global impacts on the economic fallout are on the rise. The fate of the world economy now depends on how on whether and when a real ceasefire emerges, the stalemate holds or the conflict widens.

[00:00:20]A World Bank and International Monetary Fund research shows that 15% of global oil supply still blocked at the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:00:29]That runs up to 15.8 million barrels per day.

[00:00:33]That roughly translates to 62,000 barrels per day of jet fuel, which is also blocked at the Strait.

[00:00:41]Global GDP losses currently stand at $590 billion or over 0.5% of world GDP if the conflict ends now.

[00:00:51]In the most likely scenario that is based on the current back and forth between the US and Iran is a phantom ceasefire. Under this scenario, the global GDP loss is estimated at $3.57 trillion if the if the war continues for another month.

[00:01:09]The scarcity and supply crisis is reflected in the difference between the physical oil price of over $140 per barrel and benchmark Brent crude futures trading at around $110 a barrel.

[00:01:24]The over $30 premium confirms the physical market scarcity.

[00:01:28]The world's most critical energy choke point has stranded approximately 75% of Gulf countries and Iraq energy exports.

[00:01:38]That has triggered the largest supply disruption since the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

[00:01:45]As a result, Gulf Gulf producers face revenue collapse, unable to export. On the other hand, economies reliant on Gulf energy face severe energy import cost shocks with no domestic alternatives.

[00:01:59]Increasing energy and fertilizer costs directly translate to rising consumer prices across the globe.

[00:02:06]Rising prices alongside slowing growth is a central macroeconomic risk as of now.

[00:02:12]According to the International Monetary Fund, stagflation is no more a prediction but a stark reality today.