💰 Silver Boom! New All Time Highs This Quarter, $180 Silver & $6800 Gold Next | David Hunter Gold

本站添加: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]My GDX target is 180, my GXJ target is 250, my SIL, which is a large-cap silver miners, is at 220, and my SILJ, which is a junior miner silver miner, is at 90. So, those are big runs in in the silver cases, certainly juniors, you know, it's it's a triple.

[00:00:24]Um so, and I think that happens this year. So, it's you know, these are aggressive moves if they happen. Uh gold and oil oftentimes they're somewhat tied at the hip cuz you know, during times of crisis both may move up. Gold did not move in tandem with oil though.

[00:00:42]Uh but it has been Yeah, go ahead. Gold gold and silver are basically risk-on trades right now. I mean, they're they're not so concerned about um oil and and inflation as they are just risk-on trades. And so, when well, you know, they obviously we had the big sell-off in in February uh after the big run-up in in gold and silver in January. Um but then they started to go again, and then the war hit. You can see it pretty easily.

[00:01:15]You know, first day of March they rolled right over and they went to lower lows. Um that's all the risk-off trade.

[00:01:22]You know, same thing happened. They tracked really the stock market more than they tracked anything else at that point cuz they were both risk-off trades.

[00:01:30]And we've started to build it back.

[00:01:33]Whereas equity markets have gone to new highs, I think there was more damage done to the metals. It's taken more, you know, investors are still pretty skeptical about where it's going. So, but I'm you know, I I think you're going to see new highs in both gold and silver this quarter. So, in the second quarter.

[00:01:54]>> Wow.

[00:01:55]Um so, we'll see you know, today is you get some sell off because of um, you know, the the nervousness about I think the the war sharing didn't help at all, but I think also, you know, it's the whole negotiation over in Iran or over in Pakistan. So, um, we'll see if they hold here somewhere in here. I think they'll resume probably later this week. If they don't hold here, it may have to take some time to kind of rebuild it again.

[00:02:25]Interesting. Here's silver as well.

[00:02:27]Silver is a lot lower off its all-time high um, at $77 compared to $120 uh, few months back. So, you think there's a real shot of silver, you mentioned gold, but also silver making an all-time high this quarter? Yeah, I'm and if not this quarter, this summer, I am I raised, I guess after we talked last time, um, with that run up in silver in January and then the the first sell off down to the mid-60s and try to think what I what I put out there.

[00:02:59]>> 95 now. It's at 95, yeah.

[00:03:02]>> Yeah, no, my my GDX target is 180, my GXJ target is 250, my SIL, which is the large cap silver miners, is at 220 and my SILJ, which is the junior miner, uh, silver miner is at 90. So, those are big runs in in the silver cases, certainly [snorts] juniors, you know, it's it's a triple.

[00:03:27]So, and I think that happens this year.

[00:03:30]So, it's, you know, these are aggressive moves if they happen.

[00:03:34]Um, and then and then I think along with the stock market, you've got big downside on the other side of this. So, this is kind of the end of a move, not the beginning of anything.

[00:03:46]You know, looking at these mining stocks indices, you know, No, haven't really Yes, they've sold but given like a hundred We've We've been over a hundred dollar oil um many days throughout the course of last 50 days or so. And even at $88 oil, I mean, the the input costs you would anticipate to go up significantly for these mining stocks, but they pretty much kept pace with the price of their respective metals. They haven't really underperformed in any significant way.

[00:04:16]Um >> Yeah, I think the miners this time around it not only that, but in past cycles, when you've had a move like this in the metals, you saw all kinds of M&A activity, right? They These companies always went out and tried to get bigger and buy other companies and they they thought, you know, they almost acted like retail investors. They bought at the top.

[00:04:37]This time around they've shown much more discipline and they're much more focused on their operations, I think. So, um you know, you don't capture all of that spot move in in silver and gold. Obviously, they have contracts that have to run over time, but but their obviously their selling prices have moved up a lot because of metals have moved up a lot.

[00:05:00]And so, they've got they've got room to absorb the, you know, the increased costs from oil, etc. Well, uh let's uh shift over to the bond market here. I know we have a big uh hearing today with Fed Chair pick Kevin Warsh, but before we get into some of the politics going on there, let's get your take on uh yields. This is a TNX, the 10-year bond yield, the US 10-year yield. And it looks like we've just been moving We've been hitting our heads on this 4.3% number for a while now. Uh where do where do yields want to go here, David?

[00:05:37]>> Yeah, if you look at that, there's a lot of people that see that as a um you know, uh a kind of a base built for higher rates. I see it as a big top, basically two and a half to three year top in in rates.

[00:05:54]And I think we exit out of this on the downside, not the upside. So, we're kind of we're kind of in the trading range, I'd say between kind of low fours and and the mid fours um in terms of the 10-year. I think we're going to see very shortly um it move down under four. Once we get under four, I think we're we're heading for 3%, maybe even 2 and 1/2% this year.

[00:06:22]Under 3%? Yeah, I What I you know, right now the kind of narrative out there or the uh the consensus forecast out there, I think, for the economy is that it's you know, it's moving along.

[00:06:36]It's not It's not robust, but it's not recession, either.

[00:06:39]And inflation's heading higher uh is what people I think the consensus is. I think as we move along here, we're going to see the economy slower than we expect. Whether it's in recession or not, it's pretty you know, it's moving in that direction.

[00:06:54]Uh and I think inflation once if oil rolls over here, I think the inflation will move back into a we're trending down, not trending up type of situation.

[00:07:03]So, um both of those things, a slower economy and and better news on inflation, I think are going to help the bond market um and and I think as we move into the fourth quarter of this year, I think the economy will be clearly slowing and maybe slowing quite a bit.

[00:07:21]Interesting.

[00:07:22]So, bullish bonds in this case cuz again again, guys, lower bond yields imply bond buying.

[00:07:30]Um bullish bonds and stocks is uh Yep.

[00:07:34]Is that the call? Interesting.

[00:07:35]>> Yeah, definitely bullish bonds and stocks. And I think surprisingly bullish on both of those. I mean, far outside expectations of of the consensus uh even the balls and bullish metals. So you're going to have all three major markets. I think [clears throat] moving together.

[00:07:50]It does happen. It doesn't happen all that often, but it does happen.

[00:07:55]Interesting. When did it ever happen before?

[00:07:58]Usually when you usually see that is early in a coming out of a recession.

[00:08:03]You know, usually like coming out of 82 or coming out of 2008 9 you had metals moving up. You had bonds moving up and you had the old stocks moving up. So it's it's funny cuz we're at in my opinion. We're at the end of a cycle. So this is rare to see all of those moving and what else is rare is I think we're going to see in this final rally in the stock market a broadening in the market where you know both small cap and large cap play tech plays but also financials play and industrials play etc. So it's unusual again as you move towards a major top normally you're you're seeing narrowing of a market.

[00:08:47]We had that a couple years ago as you know when we had the mag 7 dominating everything. Mhm. But I said consistently since then that the market would broaden out and we've seen that in the Russell the Russell's in new all-time highs.

[00:09:00]Nobody thought they'd see that.

[00:09:03]So my forecast in terms of the Russell is that we're going to 3100.

[00:09:08]You do the math on that and that out performs the NASDAQ. It outperforms the S&P from here outperforms the Dow. So yeah, it's kind of a a little different setup than if people are basing their forecast on president.

[00:09:23]I don't think they'd get here.

[00:09:25]Is is the forecast dependent upon like some sort of QE or like they inject a bunch of liquidity into the market and so like every market kind of gets a bit up in the process or is or not? No.

[00:09:38]Yeah, I'm I'm pretty I've been pretty consistent saying I don't My forecast this bullish forecast was not based on expectations of big QE. In fact, I've said part of the reason we'll have a bust is because they'll be slow to introduce QE again or slow to get to a right-size policy because of what they did in 2008-9 and and 2020.

[00:10:02]And you know, Powell's been consistently saying we aren't going back there. I think Kevin Warsh has been consistent in saying he wants to shrink the balance sheet, not grow it. Um so that may be their you know, their intention or their desire, but ultimately when the bust hits, there's only one thing they can do and that is print money like there's no tomorrow. So it will come, but it'll come late and that's why you'll have a bust is because almost because of what happened before, they're fighting the last war, they're they're reacting to what they realized was a mistake last time and saying we don't want to make that same mistake.

[00:10:40]And this time around they're going to need to.