One Of The Strongest El Nino's On Record Is Coming...

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:01]one of the strongest El Nino on record will continue to build in the coming months. So, we're going to take you through some of the short range guidance as well as some of the longer range guidance to give you a overall snapshot of what to look for. So, let's take a look at the overall sea surface temperature anomalies out there in the Pacific. And it's plenty warm, guys. It continues to rapidly intensify and the deepening reds start to get a little bit more enhanced. You can definitely see the trend as we've come out of the leninia and well on our way to an El Nino. And in fact, one of the stronger El Nino, anything above 0.5° Celsius is essentially classified as an El Nino.

[00:00:46]And you can definitely see the latest parameter is almost right at about one already. So, we're trending upward and we will continue to trend upward in the coming months. In fact, here are the latest kenship guidance. If you take you, you know, walk you all the way fast forward through into into December. Now, look at the deepening reds that are really building out there that is fueling that subtropical jetream. And you can see the trend in the overall guidance as this continues of the percentages of the probability of it becoming strong if not very strong or a very high likely probability especially as we head towards fall and into the winter months. And if we take a even extend it beyond that I mean this is the latest CFS B2 guidance and it's pretty much off the chart guys. I mean, the strongest El Nino on record is right around 2.7 2.9 range and it's got plenty of parameters putting a lot higher than that. So, I mean, if it even comes close to these numbers, it's going to be one of the strongest El Nino on record. And one of the things that's going to fuel this is the Pacific. I mean, we are expecting a lot of storms out there in the on the Pacific side. In fact, it hurricane season already kind of started out there on May 15th and and as of right now, the June 2nd time frame, we've got a 90% probability of our first potential tropical system of the season.

[00:02:19]And then back behind that, we already have another 40% probability. So we are well on our way to an an active season out there in the Pacific compliments of all these just extremely warm waters that will continue to build in the coming months. And also if you we if we expand it even further than that if you take a look at what's happening out there in the Pacific on the shorter range we're looking at a massive jet extension folks. And this extends and this what this is going to do is going to be, you know, pushing those temperatures upward in the coming weeks ahead. A lot of warm air is going to be filtering in into the United States and also it's actually going to spark severe severe weather season back into the plains. So this is likely going to intensify not just the heat but across the middle part of the country for the plains severe weather. And if you look at the latest uh you know supercell composite parameter guidance for the next couple of weeks, this week we start to see the trend continuing to build across the plains as much of the you know yellows and the deepening reds will likely extend well north because all that warmer air is going to be well north in fact well into Canada. So areas like Nebraska back in through the Dakotas through areas f even further than that into southern Canada should be very active for severe weather and it likely only continues into the following week for next week. This will be the second week of June. Most of the parameters are pretty bullish on an active week ahead for that second week of June. really extending from Kansas to Nebraska through South Dakota, North Dakota, and again well up into Canada with pieces of it pushing into Missouri and back into Iowa and glimpses as well as into Illinois. But it doesn't really end there, folks. that with that Pacific jet alive and well pulling in all those warmer anomalies, that just sets the trough out west and that puts most of the higher probabilities of severe weather back into the plains again across one of some of the same regions.

[00:04:35]This time maybe Texas might be included through Oklahoma, but mostly going to be Kansas, Nebraska, back into the Dakotas, through through North Dakota, as well as pieces of it getting into Wyoming. And there's the temperatures for the next in the 6 to 10 day outlook showing that that Pacific jet is going to be alive and well. And the warmest anomalies would likely be across the central and high plains with the warmest air actually push pushing in well into Canada. So most of the lower 48 will continue to be on the warm side, you know, other than areas across the Pacific Northwest and across the lower areas of the southern plains because of the more active subtropical jetream pushing in all those uh you know well above average uh precipitation rates are going to be likely to fall in the weeks ahead. complements of this more active subtropical jetream with fueling and the intensifying El Nino that will continue to build. So we'll have these upper level lows that will traverse across the subtropical uh you know subtropical jetream and push and take advantage of some of the Gulf moisture and lift it upward. So that's do expect a lot of rainfall in the coming weeks ahead and especially on the the latest European ensemble guidance kind of hints at above average rains pushing into much of a good part of Florida back into areas of Alabama as well as into Mississippi, Louisiana for sure and Arkansas into Oklahoma, much of Texas and even into New Mexico. And then you swing northbound into Missouri into Kansas.

[00:06:19]those areas into Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, and of course much of southern Canada will likely get into the action and overall below average, you know, precipitation for much of the Northwest and below average for much of the Northeast. And we'll have to be watching out there in the Gulf with the more active subtropical jetream.

[00:06:42]This will likely fuel especially areas along the coast with a lot of heavy rainfall uh in the weeks ahead and that's going to help with the drought.

[00:06:51]Right. This is the latest seasonal outlook of what uh uh what what was updated just a couple of days ago and you can definitely see the trend of the more active subtropical jetream starting to eat away or if not almost erode it completely. So there's definitely going to be areas in the weeks ahead that's going to be completely erasing the drought altogether. But there's going to be a lot of areas they're going to be uh you know really uh making a major dent in the drought if not eroding it all together. And one of the transitions we are expecting a more active monsoon season this year and eventually I do feel going to take a little bit more time but areas into Arizona into Utah those areas will start getting some of the bigger rains that I foresee with the building El Nino. And of course the areas across the Pacific Northwest in the northern tier with the El Nino, those tend to favor on more or less the drier side. So if we look at the extended range even on the climate prediction center for the the latest update on the 3 to four-week guidance kind of hints at that continued trend as the El Nino will likely continue to build a more drier air pushing in into the Pacific Northwest and those areas across the West. And eventually like I mentioned Arizona will likely get in the action with some rain above average rains pushing back in the picture for them. And I think that only deepens as you get into the summer months and we'll have some above average rains that push through areas of the east coast as well as into portions of the Ohio Valley. But once we get deeper into summer, El Nino typically doesn't really show its cards.

[00:08:32]It typically relaxes for the summer months. And I think most of the planes will be above average rains for the next couple of weeks, but then start to trend on the drier side as the ridge will likely start building across the middle part of the country. And then I think again with the more active uh El Nino, I think the with with the uptick on the Pacific storms out there, we'll start to see an above average monsoon season. And so we'll see above average rains across the four corners regions as we get deeper into the summer months. And that's exactly what the latest update from the Climate Prediction Center is kind of hinting at as you're start to dry out as we get into the July and August and the heart of summer across the middle part of the country. and the above average rains with the active monsoon season will be likely highlighted across the four corners regions, but this time getting into Wyoming and would likely eventually, especially as we get into September for those areas into Southern California.

[00:09:38]And if we take it a step further and kind of break it down, here's the latest updates from the European seasonal guide guidance hinting at the more active subtropical jetream. So, we'll start to see the trend of it pushing back into El Nino type status once we get into likely the second half of September. And that will likely only deepen as we get into the fall months as the subtropical jetream will be alive and well and really kind of getting a boost, especially as it gets as strong as a lot of the guidance says it's getting going to get. And if we average it out over the next uh you know those three months, we're talking September, October as well as in November. I mean, this is pretty pronounced, guys, across the top. Less active polar jet in the Pacific Northwest, much of the northern tier states, and then a well above average, you know, uh, you know, average rains across the southern plains and much of the south, and eventually California will likely start getting into the action with these, uh, with systems coming in one after another. So, we're expecting a lot of rain, especially as we get into the fall months. And it likely it doesn't end there. Of course, it really even enhances even further as we get into the some of the winter months. So, let's just kind of glance at this. Obviously, this is a long ways out, but it kind of gives you the idea of the trend of what we're looking for.

[00:11:04]And I think by then, California will be in a deluge of a lot of rainfall and you'll be begging for it to stop uh once it starts out there. And it doesn't end there. And as we transition into January, and that's likely when we're going to be near the peak of El Nino.

[00:11:22]Yeah. I mean, pretty much the entire state of California just gets doused with heavy rainfall. Nevada back into Arizona. And it could be even strong. It I mean, it's one of those things with the uh with it being strong, it push it could push the subtropical jet even further south. So, it could put some of the some of even the heaviest rains well into Florida and actually well into some of these islands and back into Cuba, believe it or not. And it and if that continues and even into, you know, January and back into February, you can see where the trend is going. I mean, that's that puts well well above average rains well well south with the very strong subtropical jet uh you know that we're anticipating getting into the winter months. So guys, I appreciate you watching. Do like this video. Definitely hit the subscribe button and catch the next update while I protect you before and after the storm.