Why Everything's Going Right for Péter Magyar

追加: 2026-06-04

[00:00:08]Hello and welcome to the World Leader Leader Board, the podcast where we rank world leaders. Uh I'm Ben and today I'm joined by Rory.

[00:00:15]>> Hello Ben.

[00:00:15]>> And Zach.

[00:00:16]>> Hello.

[00:00:17]>> How you both doing?

[00:00:18]>> Yeah. Really, really good.

[00:00:20]>> Yeah.

[00:00:20]>> Good. Okay.

[00:00:22]>> No explanation.

[00:00:23]>> I don't want to recycle a bit. So, um I should probably start by saying that uh we have moved some people since people watching may have uh last tuned in because we do the last uh move podcast after each edition which you can get if you sign up to TLDDR party. So, in the last move last week, we moved uh Rob Jettton, the Dutch prime minister down, uh MBZ down as well and uh Bola Tinibu uh Nigeria's president up. So, we'll be moving some other figures, you know, not on this main podcast, but on the last move at the end of this. So, if you're a member of TLDDR Party, you can find that over on TLDDR Party and tune in after this episode. But, uh, in this podcast, we're going to be going through the winners, then we'll do the audience suggestion, we'll do the losers, and then we'll move on to the mechanism at the very end. So, let's get straight into it.

[00:01:16]Okay, so let's start this week with the winners of the week. So, Zach, who's your winner?

[00:01:23]>> My winner of the week is going to be Hungary's He's He is the prime minister now, isn't he? Yeah. Uh Hungary's new prime minister, Peter Maguya. He is obviously well, he came onto the board because he won the election and by a surprisingly large margin of victory um against Victor Orban and his incumbent Fedesh party. But he's going up for I mean actually for a couple of reasons. I think the first is that he has successfully negotiated the sort of unblocking of something like 13 billions or at least most of something like 13 billion euros worth of EU funding that had basically been blocked before. You know, the EU had denied it to Orban's government mainly over rule of law concerns. Um but he has since negotiated its release and that's just great news for Hungary, right? That is a non-trivial amount of money in you know from the Hungarian perspective as it were. Um but the other thing is well actually maybe before we go into that he's also just done a tour of like European capitals where he has been sort of very warmly received and I think it was sort of a bit of an open question as to what stance other European leaders would take towards him because you know and this something we've covered on on the main channel like he's not like a liberal darling right like he is still in lots of ways like a nationalist conservative he is >> clearly sort of more less obstructionist than Victor Robband but you know it's not like he's a sort of you know macronesque super pro- European dude. Um, and I think it was always a bit of an open question as to how other European politicians would thus react to him and relate to him. Um, but he's been received very very warmly um by, you know, people like Macron and he did a tour of like uh must have been sort of neighboring central European countries.

[00:03:00]He was very warmly received by Donald Tusk over in Poland. Um, and yeah, and I think that is partly just because there's like such a relief that all bands gone, right? and and because actually one of Magiel's first moves was to sign off on that joint debt for Ukraine, right, which was being very very wellreceived in in Europe. Very the last thing is just that his poll numbers are sort of North Korea levels of astonishing right now. Like he won something like 55% of the vote at Hungary's last election. Um but the most recent polls put his party on something like uh you know when it comes to voting intention. You know, it's a bit of a weird way of asking that question because like obviously election is not going to be held today, but you know what I sort of voting intention polls put his teacher party on like 65 70% of the basically the vote um which is insane and I think I mean that's great news in of itself but I also think it's really good news because and this has lots of parallels of what happened in Poland here mag's first big job is to sort of unpick the network of corruption that developed under Orban and that is a legal process it's a constitutional process but it is al also in lots of ways fundamentally a political process right And the speed and extent to which he can make progress on that front does really depend on like how popular he is, how much political momentum he has. And if he can maintain that momentum, his odds of sort of like uh rejuvenating Hungary's democracy are just a lot higher, right? Does that make sense?

[00:04:28]>> Yeah. So, just going back to something you said a little earlier, you were talking about his sort of trip around Europe and being well received by European leaders. Hungary's been seen for a little while as sort of like a bit of a problem within the EU blocking, you know, certain funding for Ukraine, things like that. Is it now looking that under Majar they that sort of perception might be shifting that they're going to be less of a problem to the EU? Is is that is that a big part of it? I think basically yes. I think for one other reason right which is that when Orban was in power I mean Orban I think is obstructionist almost by nature in lots of ways but it's also because his politics were just very different to sort of consensus politics in Europe at the time whereas you know Maguar sure he's a self-styled nationalist conservative but it is worth noting that in most big European countries domestic politics is moving that direction as well right so it' be a lot easier for Magua to cooperate with let's say you know Vardella if he wins In France, it' be a lot easier to probably sort of policy issues. Does that make sense? Like I think in a, you know, this is an oversimpl over oversimplified framing, but it is more easier for Magua to cooperate with the EU given that the EU is sort of moving right. It's moving towards Magguiar's own politics than it was for Orban when the sort of central political gravity in Europe was more liberal, right? Or more leftwing. Again, very simplistic frame. You see my point?

[00:05:52]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:05:52]>> Yeah. So Rory, have you got anything to add here?

[00:05:55]>> The only thing I was going to add, just a very small thing off what Zach just said, is that I think um Tisa Maguar's party, I think it's in within the European People's Party, the EP, which is the the sort of party of you know Mertz, I think Donald Tusk's party might be part of it as well, like and underline like that is that is the mainstream conservative European party.

[00:06:17]So he's not >> he he's within that tent. So he's uh yeah, very friendly face for them. Okay, so we'll move on and we'll move on to your winner of the week, Lori. Uh, who is it this week?

[00:06:28]>> Um, staying in Europe for this one. It's Meta Frederickson, the uh, Prime Minister of Denmark, who has just been renewed in that job, starting her third term, which is uh, you know, for European leaders these days, that's a really quite impressive um, stint in power. Um, so she just clinched a coalition deal to form a new government after I think 69 days of negotiations, which is the longest ever post-election formation period in Danish history. Um, this new government is a sort of center-left one. It's a minority government and the fact that it's center left is a shift from the government she led before, which was this three party sort of across the center left to center right. Um, which proved to be quite unpopular. Um, so it is just a it does mark a return to Den Denmark's traditional left block, right block politics.

[00:07:21]But the caveat to that is that this party includes the moderates which is this uh well unsurprisingly moderate but probably more like centerright party that has become the kingmaker in Danish politics recently by not aligning with either of the blocks and uh sort of forcing neither block to be able to win a majority and then each block has to go to the moderates and say uh you know >> come and support us let us form a government. Um during that long period of negotiations, Meta Frederickson tried a first attempt forming a government but failed. Then the the task went to the sort of centeright opposition leader who tried and also failed. Went back to Meta Frederickson and she succeeded on that that third time or her second time. Um and what's interesting and I think particularly good for her with this new government is that it's minority government. So 82 seats uh within the for the government. um you need 90 seats for a majority but she has got the support sort of uh parliamentary support of I think it's called the red the red green alliance and the smaller party called the alternative which are on the left um and also some Greenlandic and I think Faries MPs as well so she can rely on those to to get to that 90 plus vote threshold when necessary but because she struck deals with multiple other parties so red green lines and the alternative It means that if one of those parties doesn't support her on whatever measure she might be trying to get through, she can look to the other one or to some some MPs from the the autonomous territories as well. So, she has multiple routes to sort of keeping that majority um in parliament. Um so, yeah, it's it's very good for her. I mean, oh, how long I guess 70 days ago, 71 days ago now, she won the election, but with like a historically low vote share. So, this is a I guess a nice sort of uh positive news for her. But I think it is it is remarkable that I think the Social Democrats won something like 21 22% of the vote and were the largest party and now she's still prime minister. But that is such a low vote share to win an election with and it just goes to show how fragmented Danish politics has become.

[00:09:32]>> And uh >> in the UK you won a little parliamentary super majority.

[00:09:35]>> Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Largest majority since Blair. Um, so you mentioned there that it's it's minority government.

[00:09:41]They're a few seats short of no majority. Um, but she's managed to come to an agreement where there's multiple parties there. Do you think that there is longevity in that sort of setup for a government? I know that you'd sort of mentioned that there were two parties.

[00:09:56]If one drops out, they might still be able to get their business through parliament, but does this look like it's going to sort of hold? I think it should do because these two parties that are supporting her um outside of the government are parties on the left. Um the Red Green Alliance is the furthest left party in >> elected Danish politics and the alternative is a sort of environmental focused leftwing party.

[00:10:17]>> Um they have no, you know, they however much they disagree with the government on things going forward, >> they don't really have any incentive to bring the government down because, you know, they're not going to support a right-wing government.

[00:10:28]>> Um >> also gives you a lot of influence. Yeah.

[00:10:30]they within this coalition deal, they managed to secure a few things. Even though they're outside the coalition, there are a few things that they got within that coalition deal. Um, so I think expanding free dental care to all Danish people eventually was one of them and some things like animal welfare and sort of environmental farming practices were like these promises that got um made by uh Frederickson's government to keep these other parties on side. So yeah, I don't think there's any reason to think it's not going to be a >> a sort of stable government. I mean, the fact that it's four parties, I think, is one of the is on the higher end of of previous Danish governments. So there is, I guess, more potential for in intracoalition uh sort of disputes. Um, but again, I think really it would only be the the moderates within the coalition that are the >> Yeah, >> that they're the ones who are the the most um who fit in the least within that sort of centerle coalition, I suppose.

[00:11:33]So, I guess keeping them on side is the is the the main challenge.

[00:11:38]>> And Zach, do you agree? Do you agree that she's a winner this week?

[00:11:41]>> I think she's definitely a winner. I do think it's just sort of musing music of what we said. a second ago. I do think Denmark's a really interest less >> such an But the um I do think Denmark is a really interesting test case because I mean clearly it's politics is incredibly fragmented. But and that's happened lots of other European countries and in most other European countries it's it's sort of chalked down to I don't know concerns about immigration, economic stagnation.

[00:12:12]Denmark doesn't have either of those excuses as it were, right? Like Denmark has had a very strict immigration policy for a very long time. It's Metro Frederickson's sort of political innovation actually. Um, and the Danish economy has actually just done really well for quite a long time. You know, Danish productivity levels are basically like one of the few, it's one of the few countries that by basically any metric keeps pace with the US in terms of productivity growth. Um and yet yeah apparently faith in sort of established parties is waning still and you know you're still seeing the sort of political fragmentation we see in other countries. And I do think it's interesting because it does tentatively suggest that actually you know like what we're seeing in the UK for instance is not actually about economic stagnation or immigration. It's it's probably as much to do with anything about sort of um institutions and institutional um like erosion. And that's probably I mean I'm guessing this is massively speculative and plausibly wrong but you know if you want an informed commentary you go somewhere else. Um it's probably you know social media and phones and all that sort of thing right like if even Denmark is seeing its politics fragment that does suggest that it's >> phones you know travel something more universal.

[00:13:24]>> Yeah I I I mean just on sort of the policy focus I do find it quite interesting they mentioning that smaller parties are getting into government first. I mean the sort of things that they're trying to push is like dental care >> across that. I quite like that.

[00:13:38]>> Interestingly at the election everyone you know before the election was thinking is this going to be Greenland is going to dominate Trump Greenland all that and it didn't really some of the issues that came through were ones that you just I mean maybe Danish people expected this but to the outside observer it seemed kind of surprising.

[00:13:53]There was a lot of talk about like the pig industry because I mean that's a massive industry in Denmark, but animal welfare within the pig industry. Uh water quality was another big issue and sort of things that you would think here we're so used to just arguing about tax rates and immigration and I don't know Brexit whatever that that those seems like unusual dominant themes of elections. Yeah, that was exactly it.

[00:14:16]Almost feels like it's it's going back to how how elections sort of used to be when you're sort of debating the key policies rather than just talking points that have been on the media for the last 10 years.

[00:14:25]>> That would be nice.

[00:14:26]Can you imagine?

[00:14:27]>> You know, I was thinking more the dental care, but sure. I mean, pig welfare as well. Uh would be good. Anyway, u before we get down another rabbit hole, let's uh let's move on. And um we'll get to uh the audience suggestion in just a moment. Before we do that, we do need to plug uh the latest edition of Too Long, which we're actually going to be receiving the first print copies of today at some point. Um, but the the writing for it is all done and it will be shipped out to people, I imagine, quite soon. Um, so it's all been edited.

[00:14:57]It's all ready to go. Um, I think it's another another good issue. I'll pat ourselves on the back on that one. But, as I often do with these promos, um, do either of you have any uh articles? They can be your own, Zack. I think last time we did this you did >> Rory was quite gracious and said somebody else's and you sort of shouted your own out.

[00:15:15]>> No, I another BK's book.

[00:15:17]>> Oh, you did actually again. When globalization fails by James McDonald.

[00:15:21]>> A promo within a promo. Good. Maybe don't buy that by the the magazine first and then look into that. But yes, Rory, uh >> I think so. It's difficult when we do this weeks in a row and gradually run out of recommend. But so this isn't like a specific article, but a new section in this this edition of the magazine is the book recommendation section. Funnily enough, >> please don't shout out. Funnily enough, Zach didn't have a section of that, but we know what book he would have recommended, I suppose. But I think myself, uh, Jack and Alex have all recommended a book and done very little >> reason for the the recommendation. I think it's just a fun little feature.

[00:15:58]>> See what we've been reading, see what's interesting us. Um, so it makes it feel more like a cultural magazine. You know, >> this reminded me of one piece I did really like there by the way, which is George did a piece on Mongolia's foreign policy.

[00:16:11]>> And I actually found that really, really interesting. You sort of forget what a sort of central position occupies literally geographically, right? Like sandwiched in between Russia and China.

[00:16:20]>> I'm 90% sure this is the case, but this is the addition with your World War I >> article. Yes, cuz that was that was really interesting as well. And >> I like that. You love a lot of history.

[00:16:29]But it's it's also it's also the fact that you clearly got into some something of a rabbit hole with World War One history because you you brought this up in the office a couple years.

[00:16:37]>> Yeah, I've got I got really obsessed.

[00:16:38]It's not good. It's actually really hurt my my script out normally because normally I'm reading about things that are contemporary and I just go home and and read like various histories of the preWorld War I era.

[00:16:47]>> It comes all Zach.

[00:16:49]>> I'm I've got a kid and I'm reading about World War I. I'm basically a step away from the grave. So basically if if if this uh podcast is too current affairsy for you, there is some uh there's some history for a change in there. Uh so if you are interested in that magazine, if that wasn't enough to sell you, um we have got a promotion on at the minute.

[00:17:08]Uh so if you use code summer 26 uh and subscribe, you can get £3 off your first copy. So just another great book. You would love it. Is >> we can't keep promoting by Christopher Clark. It's not a hot take, but it is incredible. Okay, go on.

[00:17:23]>> Well, maybe before buying that, have a look into uh too long. So, too long.

[00:17:27]News uh and you can get £3 off your first copy with summer 26. Okay, now we've, you know, uh done what we need to do on that and Jack's happy. We can move on to that. He's probably not that happy in fairness, but that's fine. He's not here, so it's fine. He he won't see this. Um so, we'll move on to the audience suggestion.

[00:17:49]Okay, so the audience gestion this week is Sirill Ramposa. So the South African president. So who wants to jump in on that? Is he a winner this week or is he a loser?

[00:18:01]>> I I can you can you >> you go first. You go first.

[00:18:05]>> Um I think he's going to be a loser. Uh I think this corruption scandal is still rumbling on. We talked about it a while ago. It's quite funny. What's it called?

[00:18:13]It's called Farmgate. Um, and it's about the fact that someone he's been keeping millions of dollars worth of banknotes in his sofa in his farm. And >> it's like farmgate is quite a quaint way of refer there's so many different angles you can take.

[00:18:30]>> Gate Buffalo gate. There are loads because anyway, the reason it's called could be called Buffalo Gate is because when they got nicked, he didn't want to report to the police cuz obviously like they were going to ask why have you got millions of pounds worth of, you know, banknotes in your sofa? And so he went to his sort of private security first and then when he did report to police he understated how much had been stolen and then when they said he I mean he understated it but it was he still claimed it was like the equivalent of $500,000 and that's still quite a lot of money to have in a sofa and then he said oh no I made it from the sale of buffalo and that's also that's a bit of a tough sale isn't it?

[00:19:05]>> Yeah.

[00:19:05]>> Um so anyway the amount of buffalo you'd have to sell to earn that amount of money. You'd assume they're not paying cash. And I think I'm right about this in that the buffalo was still there. So they were so these were these were sort of like you was paying in advance.

[00:19:17]Someone paid a lot of money in advance for >> again keeping in the sofa. It's just so suspicious that >> Yeah.

[00:19:23]>> Um so that corrupt gun is rumbling on.

[00:19:25]And I think someone mentioned this in the maybe in the comments suggesting my proposal maybe this was another week but he the ANC also lost I think this is the equivalent like a bi-election in a a a township um that is sort of predominantly black basically and they lost at the Democratic alliance which has it's historically been the main opposition party in South Africa but it's also historically been seen as like the white party in lots of ways right whereas the ANC Ramos's party has been seen as the black party and has been politically dominant since basically uh apartheid or the end of a part time rather um that was quite something and I think goes to suggest sort of two things first that the democratic alliance this is actually a long-standing project for them that's sort of waxed and waned but they have made good progress on sort of shedding that label right sort of like repositioning not like the white party but like the competent party right um it's something they've been trying to do for for ages yeah with limiting with varying degrees of success um but I also think the other thing is that it does tensionably suggest that the coalition agreement between the ANC and the DA at the moment is actually paying off more for the DA than the ANC. Right? Because the coalition agreement has worked surprisingly well. Um, but what I think it's done is I think the DA have been able to take credit for most of the competence and it's also sort of normalized the idea of of Democratic Alliance government. Do you see what I mean? Right? because they're now in government at the national level and that's I think that has helped sort of there's sort of a sort of I say like a taboo on on democratic alliance you it's just >> that was an interesting noise >> um I'm just going to leave >> I would have lost my train if I made that noise it normalized the the idea of democratic alliance government um >> yeah and I think it's just maybe more more open to voting for M Rory.

[00:21:20]>> Yeah, I I agree with that. Was very comprehensive.

[00:21:23]>> Okay, >> so I think he's a he's a loser this week.

[00:21:26]>> Okay, so uh that's Siliposa moving down on the board. So we will uh move on to the next section which is the other losers this week.

[00:21:38]So we will start with Zach. Who's your loser this week?

[00:21:43]>> I'm doing Provo Subto, aren't I?

[00:21:44]>> Yes.

[00:21:45]>> Yes. Yeah, that's what I've got.

[00:21:46]>> There we go. Indonesia's president provo who is going down for economic reasons, we've just covered this over on uh TLDDR global channel, but I think the the TLDDR of that video is that for the past 20 years or so, Indonesia has actually been a really quite incredible economy and it has been really well managed. you know, despite some quite tumultuous politics on the surface, you know, a lot of Indonesia essentially economic management was was um handed over to technocrats and very very competent technocrats. And you know, Indonesia run ran like very very manageable budget deficits. Debt to GDP ratio never really went above 40% which is pretty unusual for a developing economy, right? If you compare that to, you know, let's just say like similly developed economies in Asia and Africa, that is quite impressive. um and and consistently posted really quite solid growth rates, right? Sort of 5% yearonear. Um that has sort of changed since Subanto has come to power in must been late 2024 I think. Uh and it was a gradual process. You know, I think he sort of showed a bit more disdain for those technocrats I mentioned. um and prove more willing to like put pressure on them and introduce some very very expansive government programs that always be quite difficult to fund. But that process has really accelerated in the past let's say like couple of weeks right maybe a couple of months but basically his attitude to economic management has pro some anxiety in the markets and that that prompted like a slight selloff especially in the the currency which is the Indonesian rupia and he has reacted to that this is the most important thing I think he's reacted to that selloff by imposing some really draconian capital controls which are basically about like making get then allowing the government to get its hands on the foreign currency floating around the economy, right? So, it can then use that currency to to defend the rupee, right? So, essentially spend that currency buying up rupee on foreign exchange markets which sort of artificially inflates the value of the rupia.

[00:23:50]You saw this a couple of months ago first when he he introduced this sort of requirement for commodity exporters um said that they have to hold some of their foreign currency in stateowned banks. This is actually very similar to by the way to what the Kremlin did um after the invasion of the of Ukraine.

[00:24:05]They they said all exporters have to hold their currency in state owned banks. And it means that like nominally you can get the currency out at some point maybe. But what it does in the short term is it gives the state control over that currency which it can then use to defend its own currency. Right?

[00:24:20]There's control of the foreign currency which it can then use to defend the other currency.

[00:24:24]>> Um and yeah that that was the first step that actually obviously spooked the markets more than it convinced that it sort of like calmed them. So then the self accelerated and then last week he gave the speech where everyone basically expected to be about it was supposed to be an attempt to calm the markets right um because there's also been this additional anxiety that Indonesia is is due to run a relatively large budget deficit larger than 3% of GDP and it has this law called the state finance law that was introduced in the early 2000s that prohibits um deficits above 3% of GDP. it's supposed to be sort of like a guarantee for fiscal prudence. And he was given this speech and everyone thought it was going to be where he said, "Okay, I'm going to cut this program. I'm going to raise taxes here to make sure it's still 3% GDP." And he didn't say that. He said, "I'm actually creating a new agency which is going to take near total control over commodity exports." So now for I can't remember exactly what it is. It's it's some lithium products. I think it's tin, maybe copper. Um but for a couple of raw commodities essentially exporters no longer sell it direct to the markets.

[00:25:28]They have to sell it to the state first and the state will sell it to the market and then give you your money you know.

[00:25:33]Um and unsurprisingly this looks pretty I mean dodge is not the right word but it's it's very invasive right >> are there suggestions that the state are then taking some of that money when when the money is sort of going through them.

[00:25:45]Is that is that the suggestion here?

[00:25:47]That's not just from the government, right? What the government's argument is, >> I imagine it probably isn't from the government.

[00:25:51]>> But the government's argument is that what the issue here is that these commodity exporters are selling their commodities at below market prices to subsidiaries in Singapore, Switzerland, whatever, which then sell it for real market prices onto the rest of the market. And they're doing that to avoid paying taxes, right?

[00:26:07]They say, "Oh, look, we only made, you know, £100,000 off this nickel, but actually then they the subsidiary will then sell it on for 200,000, whatever it is." Um but and I don't think there is necessarily suggestion the government is going to start skimming stuff off. I mean it's going to tax it and and you know tax it at what it deems the correct rate but I think it's more about what the same mechanism I just articulate described which is that like they're just trying to get their hands on as much foreign currency as possible.

[00:26:33]Right. Sure, nominally that means they have to give the foreign currency back to the exporter at some point. But the the plan is more to make sure that at any one time the government has like enough foreign currency in its sort of bank in its or in the state adjacent banks, right? That it can use that to defend the rupeer, right? Does that make sense? Yeah.

[00:26:50]>> Sort of about sort of like taking control over more of the flow of foreign currency rather than sort of like um >> but the implication there is that they'll use it if they ever need to.

[00:27:00]Yes.

[00:27:00]>> Which is then presumably not going to be handed back. Well, no, but the implication is that there's going to be enough flowing back in. Do you see what I mean? That they can always make good on their obligations to those exporters.

[00:27:09]But I agree with you, >> but it's not uncertainty, right?

[00:27:12]>> Exactly. There is a degree of uncertainty there and and obviously if they run out of foreign currency, all of a sudden it's going to be exporters left holding the bag as it were. Right.

[00:27:19]>> Yeah.

[00:27:19]>> Um totally agree. Yeah. Yeah. That's that's why it's a bit risky and that's why everyone's a bit scared of it.

[00:27:23]>> Do you think it'll work? Do you think this is this is >> So I actually So I'm going to say two things. This is this is very boring.

[00:27:30]You've asked a boring question. You're going to get a boring answer. Um I do think like this kind of thing.

[00:27:35]>> I think that >> no it will not work in Indonesia's case but I think that is actually for Indonesia specific reasons because I think it's the way he's gone about it.

[00:27:45]He's gone not in a rude way to Mr. Proo.

[00:27:47]He's gone about like a madman. You know what I mean? He goes around saying like crazy stuff like he said that um you know when someone pointed out the exchange rate he said that it's okay because villagers don't use dollars >> and I was like well is that that's not really the point is it mate? you know, >> and um you know, and he and he gives very sort of bellose performances on the podium. Um you know, when that speech, for instance, he basically said, "The markets are wrong. I'll be fine. I my deficit will come under the 3% thing."

[00:28:15]Um you know, his ministers have he's sacked some of the more reputable ministers and replaced them with, you know, less orthodox ones. For instance, there was a bit of a fiasco must been a couple of months ago now where one of his ministers someone pointed out that he's going to miss his deficit target and the minister said, "You don't even have a PhD, mate." And the guy was like, "Well, that's not really the point, is it?" You know, and yeah, so they're just they're just a bit a bit sassy and I think that has spooked the markets. But I think the general principle of governments reverting back to what are known as capital controls, right? to basically take more control over the domestic economy to make them less vulnerable to like international capital flow, right?

[00:29:01]Which is when like all the rich people just suddenly pull their money out of an economy. That's something that everyone is worried about and that everyone is going to be be guarding against more and more, right? You see it I mean it's not the same thing necessarily, but you see it to a similar extent in the UK. There was a whole lot of talk about Brit ISIS.

[00:29:15]Remember that? Remember that? Yeah. That is not quite the same thing. It's not like a strict capital control per se, but it is nonetheless like an attempt to redirect some of your sort of domestic money and keep it in the domestic economy as it were. And I think that's, you know, it's on the same path as what's happening in Indonesia. And I think that if he'd gone about it a bit more tactfully, he might have actually gotten away with it.

[00:29:38]>> Yeah.

[00:29:38]>> Does that make sense? I just think that actually that trend we we really the whole world by the way is trending in this direction. There is a sense amongst national governments that money is just too mobile. You see that in all the discourse everywhere, right? Left wing discourse is we can't tax the billionaires because the money's too mobile. You see it in the bond vigilantes. Everyone's getting granted because they're, you know, putting too much pressure on governments. the it just all the incentives are lined up and I do think that national governments across the world will basically be looking for ways to put some more sort of sand in the wheels right to make sure that money can't just flee the country so quickly you know um and this is one way of doing it it's quite heavy-handed it's it's Indonesia is developing economy so it's more subject and more vulnerable to those sort of count but you you'll see other developed economies >> I feel like we've moved slightly onto like criticism of like a global economic model rather than Indonesia so Just before Rory, do you have anything to add to this before we move on? I either onto or on just your criticism of the global economic system. I mean, I I'm just saying that's what governments want. Governments want more uh power.

[00:30:45]>> For what it's worth, I've seen the audience likes this kind of stuff. So, I think >> Thanks, guys. So, disparagingly the audience.

[00:30:53]>> No, I I mean, yeah, I agree. Proos should move down. I think he the thing it's interesting the things Zach said about his um what's the word you use or sassy or bell maybe as well >> like that was his word >> I mean I did use an interchange but I was wrong too >> but his that kind of vibe that he put across was like a key part of how he got elected in the first place >> um and he also did this whole like cuddly grandpa thing um which was >> interesting to do both >> yeah um basically just sort of a fun figure. He was on TikTok, you know, that kind of thing.

[00:31:28]>> But >> it's one of those things where like an electoral strategy sort of collides with reality when you're actually governing and it doesn't it isn't received the same way, you know, when you're talking to the bond markets or whatever versus the electorate on TikTok.

[00:31:44]>> Andy Burnham's going to find the same thing.

[00:31:47]>> Well, fortunately, it's not Georgina hosting, so I'm not going to get drawn into an Andy Burnham segue. Um, so to make sure that I don't, let's move on.

[00:31:56]And we'll go to Rory's other >> uh sorry well Rory's loser of the week.

[00:32:00]The other loser of the week.

[00:32:01]>> My loser of the week this week is Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel. He was moved up last week and we drag him straight back down. Um there's a few reasons, but the main reason is the sort of events of this week where Netanyahu sort of announced and and promised this big escalation uh in Lebanon against Hezbollah. He said they were going to bomb Beirut. um which you know there is nominally a ceasefire in place there so that would have I guess shattered that really um so after that announcement there was a phone call between him and Trump where there's lots of different reports on this but um the outcome is that Netanyahu backed down but one of the reports of of how that phone call went came from Axios which basically claimed that Trump effectively said to Netanyahu Netanyahu you'reing crazy I helped keep you out of Everyone hate everyone hates you. Everyone hates Israel.

[00:32:56]>> Very quickly I and this has been widely not slightly misreported.

[00:33:00]>> I know it's the it's the sum that was Yeah. So Axio reported that as >> as a quote, but it was a quote from someone who had knowledge of the call.

[00:33:11]So they're quoting someone else who was saying this is effectively what was said. Yeah.

[00:33:15]>> Um, so that's the first >> I can see how it got passed on because plausibly >> it's the sort of thing you could see Trump saying on the phone like >> they know what they're doing. Cheeky >> Axio. And this is the other thing. If I don't know when your video is coming out, Zack, but Zach made a very good point in that video about Axios's sort of history of just being a almost like a mouthpiece for the US administrations. They did it under Biden as well as as well as they do now under Trump where they will put something out to make it look like the administration is being really tough on Israel, keeping them in line and that kind of thing when really they might be overstating what's been going on. You know, they'll say a ceasefire deal is imminent in Iran or something like that or you know Biden Biden administration or Trump administration furious with Netanyahu, that kind of thing. When in reality it's uh yeah, I think it has to be taken with a big pinch of salt. But that aside, whatever happened in that phone call, Netanyahu did effectively back down from what he announced uh at the start of the week. And that has caused a bit of a political storm in Israel where the opposition have basically accused him of running a vassal state, saying he's like sort of uh I guess undone Israeli sovereignty by backing down to Trump because of Trump.

[00:34:34]Um so that's the opposition, but also ministers in his own coalition have criticized it. the sort of farright ministers he relies on. So, he's being attacked from all sides on it. Um, and that's pretty bad news for him because Israel has an election later this year.

[00:34:51]So, it's sort of I mean it's not officially in campaign season, but you it sort of feels like it is. So, you've got parties of all stripes sort of saying you've let Israel down. You know, you you're not doing your job. Um, as an aside, I think it is quite bleak that the opposition parties, even the sort of nominally less extreme opposition parties are making these criticisms effectively because they want Netanyahu to escalate in Lebanon and uh sort of break the ceasefire there and go fully.

[00:35:21]It's also interesting that that >> submitting to Trump once >> is seen as like, you know, you're um giving up Israeli sovereignty, whereas there's so many Western leaders that have rolled over Trump multiple times.

[00:35:33]Yes. And it's >> it's not unusual. not really seen as I also think this is what I find slightly odd is that whatever that domestic whatever that domestic reaction in Israel the reality is that yes Netanyahu backed down from that big sort of threat of escalating Lebanon but he still the Israeli military has still taken more territory in Lebanon and just recently captured this crusader castle that it's been a real image of like Israeli occupation sort of decades ago the fact they recaptured it from you know from Lebanon or from Hezbollah uh in like the last week or so is a big deal. They're taking more territory there. They're sort of entrenching their positions there. In Gaza as well, where there is nominally a ceasefire, they're taking more territory than was sort of outlined in the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu mentioned something like pushing for 70% of 70% control of the Gaza Strip. Like for all the talk of Netanyahu sort of backing off like actually on the ground the Israeli military is sort of entrenching it and expanding its control in Gaza, Lebanon. I think also they've increased their activities in Syria where they occupy some territory on the border there as well. So I think that's quite an important caveat to make when we talk about like Netanyahu backing down. But fundamentally the reason he's loser this week is because of that big political reaction in Israel. I think um and it shows sort of the sticky situation he's in with an election coming where >> you know he sort of does have to maintain decent relations with the US while running an election campaign while fighting sort of fighting wars on multiple fronts. I think is it September or >> well it depends due for October concerns October but the >> this is one another reason to put them down it's the last week or maybe earlier this week um the Nessa which is the Israeli parliament uh passed the first reading of a bill that would schedule early elections I mean like a couple of weeks early but the reason that's significant is because the only reason that there was a majority in favor of that bill is because two of the ultraorththodox parties that are normally in his coalition sided with the other opposition parties to vote for it.

[00:37:42]Um so, you know, they're turning on him as well and they're turning over on him over this very contentious issue about um an exemption from mandatory military service for ultraorththodox Jews in Israel.

[00:37:54]>> And they basically still want it and Netanyahu has basically said, I can't guarantee that to you anymore.

[00:37:59]>> Yeah. So, that means that Benjamin Netanyahu is moving down despite as you pointed out Rory, him moving up last week. So, uh, with that, we will move on to the final part of, uh, this podcast.

[00:38:13]Uh, the mechanism.

[00:38:16]>> I always forget that that's what you call it.

[00:38:17]>> Yeah.

[00:38:18]>> Nobody else.

[00:38:19]>> No one else calls it mechanism.

[00:38:21]>> But it's fun. It's good fun.

[00:38:26]>> Okay. So, we'll start with the winners.

[00:38:27]This week, we need a consensus uh, between the three of us for them to move up. And this week, we have Peter Majar or Meta Frederickson.

[00:38:37]Okay, Zach >> Petar. Is it PA? Peter. Peta.

[00:38:42]>> I think it's Majiar as well. I don't know about the Peter bit.

[00:38:45]>> Fair enough.

[00:38:45]>> Yeah. Yeah. Wrong on both counts.

[00:38:48]>> Rory, >> I've also gone for Majiar. Peter. Majar.

[00:38:52]>> Oh, no. I've gone Frederickson. I think the coalition forming was >> I mean, to be fair, she has stuck it out. I mean, she must be one of the longest serving European leaders at this point.

[00:39:01]>> Yeah. But I was going to say >> unfortunately does mean that there isn't an overall, but you were going to say something. I was going to say and then Ben in Majar's to make Mar's case I think the massive windfall he's getting from >> the unblocked EU funding is like you know can't get much better than that if you're a newly elected government just having like billions of euros Yeah flowing in.

[00:39:22]>> Yeah.

[00:39:23]>> In my head that happened a little while ago which is why I've gone but some when we rejoin maybe we'll be poor enough that we'll get structural funding.

[00:39:30]>> You know what I mean?

[00:39:31]>> Poland will be sending us like money.

[00:39:35]There'll be a whole debate about Poland about all the English builders coming over.

[00:39:38]>> Yeah.

[00:39:38]>> Stealing the jobs.

[00:39:40]>> Okay. So, we will move on to the overall loser. And we have as options here Ramiposa, uh, PO SATO and Benjamin Netanyahu.

[00:39:50]>> Zach, who's your overall loser this week?

[00:39:52]>> It's got to be BB.

[00:39:54]>> Yeah.

[00:39:54]>> Um, I got say one of other reasons that things have really turned around since we last talked about him, right? In that space of a week, it's gone from, oh, look, I've been able to force, why did we move him up? It's cuz he was able, >> he scuppered the Iran deal.

[00:40:06]>> Yeah. Scupped the Iran deal to being sort of like, you know, um what's the crowbar by Trump into winding things down in Lebanon and and maybe accepting a crap deal in Iran. his perspective >> just just this is not you know that important but it was crazy in Trump's uh truth social post when he sort of announced that I think he said something like Netanyahu has turned his troops around but you know in practice that's not what happened but he said I just had a great phone call with Hezbollah as well like he only he can say things like that you know everyone else has to be so careful in how they speak about these things but he's a >> great phone call with >> yeah um sorry >> no it's really funny I agree that it's really Who's your Yes. Who's your loser this year?

[00:40:48]>> I've also gone for Netanyahu. Um >> yeah, >> same reasons.

[00:40:51]>> Same reasons. And yes, also Netanyahu.

[00:40:53]Same reason. So that means that Netanyahu moves down again. So that puts him into the uh lightly negative overall, which is remarkable that he's he's like lightly negative, but I suppose it is the way that the board works.

[00:41:05]>> I still think he'll just somehow win the next election. I've just happened so many times and I just he's just too he's too good at politics.

[00:41:12]>> And even if he loses, it will be some uh unwieldy, as we like to say, unwieldy coalition that doesn't really agree on anything other than getting rid of those words, the word specific political context. Unwieldy, quagmire, you know, that's great.

[00:41:26]>> You've been getting really into using the word quagma. I got a message from my mom last week. He said, "We're inventing words cuz it used the word quagmirey as like a verb in an adjective." Benjamin, >> sorry. That's true.

[00:41:37]>> I'm so sorry everyone. I can't believe we employ him as a writer.

[00:41:40]Um, so I got Yeah. I got uh called out on as starting to invent words or more specifically you starting to invent words. Yes.

[00:41:47]>> So >> I can't tell if people like it or don't like that sort of thing. I have quite you know sometimes I do that on some other good examples but I think sometimes those like madeup words are good because they sort of get people's attention back. You know >> you just quite like using sort of you put the word stuff in there whenever you're talking about trading. You you you start putting the word stuff in there. I quite like that like justosition between like quite academic language and then very colloquial language like I think it's like if you want to we don't swear in videos but I think it's you could do >> yeah there's a crazy capital controls you know that sort of thing.

[00:42:21]>> Ben Ben swore in the recent uh I mean cuz I wrote it into the script but that white house the Steven Chung quote about around and find out that one in >> you did was the comments on that or something. I just remember Should I include this or not?

[00:42:36]>> Well, before we get into an episode of uh the editorial which I feel like we're slowly sort of seeping into. We should probably wrap up. But if you are interested in hearing us talk more, which I'd be very surprised if you are, but there is another uh sort of episode to go on the end of this which is the last move where we move three sort of lesser moved people on the board. Um so in this week's episode we're going to discuss Deli Rodriguez, uh Hibella Aodaza.

[00:43:03]No.

[00:43:03]>> Akunda.

[00:43:04]>> Akunda. Okay. And uh Anutin Chand.

[00:43:11]>> Yes. Cher.

[00:43:12]>> That was a tough set to be given. Was Yeah. Uh so we'll be discussing those on the last move which you can find on TLDDR Party if you're a member. So that will win on from this episode. But to everybody uh leaving us now, goodbye and thank you for to the both of you for joining. It's a pleasure.