Typhoon Threat with a Stronger System in the Philippine Sea...

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Jong Mi is developing and it looks to become a typhoon. Thank you for joining me. It is Wednesday, May 27th, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields here on Mr. Weatherman Asia. Jong Mi, this is what we're going to be tracking strengthening through the Philippine Sea and we'll be watching it strength very carefully because a higher likelihood that this will impact land down the road. Again, thank you for taking the time to subscribe and being part of Mr. Weatherman Asia. You can see all of it flaring up. Here's the broader picture.

[00:00:29]This is the area we're watching really heavier rain back through Palao over toward Yap. We're going to see widespread impacts out of this. Here we are in the Philippines. With this developing, we're actually going to see the southwest monsoon kick in. So, there are going to be lots of impacts, both direct and indirect. Zooming down, we work our way back toward Palao and over toward Yap. You see these brighter colors, these colder cloud tops. That's telling me they're really, really tall clouds. tons of tropical moisture. We're looking at about 20 centimeters of rain.

[00:01:02]Meanwhile, we've had some of the rain, not exactly related to this area, but back toward Visayas and Mindanao, we've had those downpours around. Let me know in uh the Philippines in the comments section if you've had any of uh rain, any downpours. Put your location or if you've been dry. Then we work our way back toward the Mariana Islands. Of course, very sensitive to this area in the wake of Slaku. This is not going to be moving in uh like what we saw with Slaku. With that said, Guam and the Northern Marana Islands, intense rain is going to be moving in. We'll cover that in this video. On this channel, it is I just want to let you know where the weather's going. I do it for safety.

[00:01:41]I'll also let you know where it is not going. Again, uh I keep things in very good perspective on this channel. This is not going to be a Slaku for the Northern Ariana Islands and Guam, but it is going to bring some rain. Here's the track. Here we are in the Philippines.

[00:01:56]And yesterday, if you were watching yesterday's video, little bit more of a shift to the west. Still overall seeing that. And we'll see this become a tropical storm rather shortly over the next day or so. And then eventually a severe tropical storm as it makes its way to becoming a typhoon. And that's what we'll see as it continues its way uh through the uh Philippine Sea. We'll see a little westerly jog with this getting closer to the Philippines, but then eventually a turn. In this video, I want to show you what is going to steer it, plus some other areas we're watching as well for tropical development. It's about to be a very active cycle ahead.

[00:02:32]Now, this is Jong Mi as it enters into and kind of develops in the P, the Philippine area of responsibility uh domain. That is also the name. So, we'll see two names with this, of course, as it continues to lift through the Philippine Sea. Now, this is what's going on. In a moment, we'll zoom down across the Philippines. I'll zoom down in tight to show you some of that rain on the way. But the focus here, yap and plow, the short term, I am concerned about the rain because it is going to be so very much. Nothing we haven't seen before, but so very much. Here's the center of this sucker. Look what happens. It just draws in that flow across Mindanao all the way back through Palao Yap up toward Guam. So while while the core of this is going to strengthen here and you see how it starts to move to the west northwest as if this is going to move toward Lucon, we're going to see that Thursday into Friday, tomorrow into Friday, but it will turn because there is a front up to the north. I don't just look at the models, I look at what's going on in the environment. Sometimes you need to look out the window and this front will grab it and lift to the north. So the core of it strengthening right here to the east of Luzon and to the west of Guam, but just a ton of moisture that this is going to pull in, jumpstarting the southwestern monsoon and still just feeding in the rain. You could see it here across the Philippines. This could become a typhoon as soon as this weekend on Sunday. It will draw in the moisture on the back side of it, including over toward Guam, Yap Palao, and then swinging back even toward the NCR. A better chance of rain. Sabud the north where we have been so dry that rain chance is going to go up. We'll zoom down in just a moment with that. Now, this is that same time frame Sunday afternoon. Now, we work our way back toward Okinawa in particular, watching the islands in and around the southern islands of Japan. Here's Taiwan. This could make an impact. Now, this is by Monday. I do expect some changes. A couple things. One, it could directly impact uh Monday into Tuesday with some at least severe tropical storm type conditions. Uh very strong tropical storm as it moves in. But it should be weakening going from a typhoon. Then as it lifts north in latitude, there should be a little weakening. That would be more of a saving grace with this. Uh it may still kind of curve off, but we've got a couple more islands in here that of course we know we're watching. And on this channel, I cover everyone. I don't leave anyone out. Uh if it's a small island, a big country, whatever, I got you covered right here at a track storm start to finish. That is my promise to you. You take the time to subscribe. Got you covered as we go through typhoon season. Now, I want to show you the winds in this in just a moment. But you can see the modeling just a little bit of a jog to the west northwest tomorrow into Friday as if it were to work its way closer to Lon, but it'll stay off toward the east and then work its way up toward and very close to Okinawa. Some of the models still take it a little bit more toward the east. Others bring it right in watching the islands then again staying south of Tokyo or at least very close. We'll see how this shakes out. It all depends on when it starts to make its turn and I'll be tracking that on this channel. Here's the Google Deep Mine kind of painting in the shading here, giving you a better feel of exactly where this is going to go.

[00:05:38]Little bit of that turn and then eventually moving to the north. As it moves to the north, it will strengthen initially, then weaken, and then make the turn. But if it's a later turn, that'll mean bigger, broader impacts with at least some really heavy rain throughout more portions of Japan moving forward. Now, how strong will this get?

[00:05:54]Well, this is a day out, 2 days out, 3 days out. Uh, we get into about 4 days out. Wait, I may have Yeah, I have that right. about 4 days out and you can see it strengthening here. Most of the modeling has this with winds of about 170 m uh kilometers an hour or 100 miles per hour. So again becoming that typhoon no doubt as it lifts and strengthens. So let me show you the strength here. Here we are in the Philippines uh Vietnam, Cambodia we get back toward Taiwan, China here's Yap and Palao. We'll have some of the winds gusting to about 80 kilometers an hour as this strengthens.

[00:06:29]So, some of the gust right around 80 with this strengthening and still through the day tomorrow, tomorrow evening, as this starts to strengthen and lift to the north, we'll still get some of those gust anywhere from about 50 to 80 kilometers an hour. Then it strengthens further. You see some of these reds in here. So, we're looking at some of the winds 100 to 120 kilometers an hour, strengthening as it lifts to the north. Breezy conditions along the coast, but again, the core of this staying off to the east of Lon and then lifting to the north. You see even some of the greens getting in there with some of the yellows. Those could be some of those winds that would push about 200 km an hour. We'll see if that shakes out, but it could get that strong depending on how quickly it strengthens. Now, here's the key. One, the first thing, when does it turn? And I'll be fine-tuning that in upcoming videos. But also, the strengthening of this. Look at some of the purple showing up. 250 km an hour. Yeah, a possibility. Maybe that's on the high end, but that is certainly possible based on what I'm seeing in the environment with some low wind shear.

[00:07:26]But then as it lifts to the north, I mentioned the saving grace. Uh hopefully we get some weakening as it moves in.

[00:07:32]But still watching over towards some of the islands of Japan. We're looking at some of the winds. Maybe that could be upwards of still pushing 145 kilometers an hour. So watching that as it moves in, but hopefully some weakening and the hope will be that it takes that turn a little bit sooner and that's what we'll be watching going forward. Now here's the broad picture and looking at what's steering this. Here we are in Guam. you get back toward the uh Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan. Here uh we get towards South Korea. These fronts up here are the big player on this. Now, this first front doesn't really grab it. So, we get a little more of a west northwesterly turn. But these fronts are key. Does it move closer to uh Taiwan or does it make that earlier hook? It depends on the timing and strength of these fronts up to the north. And I need about another day or so to kind of fine-tune this on the impacts we're going to have in parts of Japan going forward. But either way, as this strengthens, as it lifts through the Philippine Sea, you can see all of this moisture wrapping around back behind it. A ton of tropical rain, very monsoonike with that moisture. And then you see it here uh just about peak in strength by the time we get into Sunday.

[00:08:41]We need it to weaken after that, otherwise it would be a pretty strong system. But this front up here may do enough damage to help kind of curl this a little bit, kind of grab it. We need that front to to definitely stay strong enough to make its turn. Uh some of the models have this a little bit more to the east as I mentioned, some right into parts of Japan. We'll see how this shakes out. This is about 6 days from now. So we're looking at Tuesday of next week. And with that said, uh we're going to see some changes, but I like to let you know everything. I trust your judgment with these. You know, once we get about four or five days out, we're definitely going to see some changes.

[00:09:15]But I'll let you know here first on this channel what I'm seeing change, where I believe this is going to go. And again, this is strengthening. It already is a tropical depression. It will strengthen into a tropical storm. You see that high probability of that. And uh the risk of a typhoon, I think this is a little bit too low. This particular model showing about a 20 to 30% chance of this becoming a typhoon. I think it is considerably higher than that. I mentioned I don't just look at the models. I look at what's going on in the environment. I do believe this will become a typhoon and then keeping an eye on the West Philippine Sea as well for the potential of a little more development. But the big thing will be here with this closer in look will be the moisture moving in with this thing oriented just off toward the east with that depression becoming a storm eventually a typhoon. It is going to jumpst start uh the southwest monsoon at the least. The moisture is really going to be building. I mentioned Sabu to the north. Some spots have not had a lot of rain whatsoever. Locked into that summer pattern. Watching this and you see how yesterday I was mentioning it's going to be a little bit closer on this trajectory. It still keeps it far enough offshore. It would be more in the way of indirect impacts. Now, with that all said, watching the moisture, but just keeping an eye on this area, right, just to see if there's any development. Not seeing big signs of that. More so, it's going to be as this lifts to the north.

[00:10:32]Just all of this moisture starting to move in. This is Saturday. Not all of us yet. still southern sections, Visayas, southern zones uh down to the south through Mindanao. But then you see as this pulls away as we work our way into Sunday, that rain starts to move in.

[00:10:48]Even getting closer to the NCR, Legosby seeing the rain, Tackle Band seeing some of the rain and some of this will be heavy. You see some of these yellow showing up, some of these reds, and then more of that will be lifting to the north with more of that southwesterly flow even as we get into the next working week. Quick look as we work our way back towards South Asia. got you covered across the board on this channel. Not seeing any big signs of development in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Just that buildup of some of the rain. Here we are in India, Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, back toward Laos, Thailand, Malaysia. Uh having some heavier rain though. Bangladesh rounds of heavier rain and that flooding. We'll monitor. Seeing some more popup storms though as we start to get some of the changes back toward additional areas of India, but not seeing much in the way of more development back toward the Bay of Bengal. But boy, looking at that rain, you see these yellows shaping up in and around Yap and Palao. That would be some of those totals upwards of 250 millimeters of some of the rain. Here's the rain. This is 3-day totals, right?

[00:11:47]So, this is not really cranking in the monsoon yet, but the 3-day totals over toward Devo. We may have some spots with some repeat downpours of about 100 millimeters of some of that rain.

[00:11:58]Vietnam some spots as well. Thailand kind of a mixed bag. Uh Cambodia, it is going to be uh picking up with some of the rain. China. Of course, we've had the heat. We've had record rain. It has been crazy throughout China. And watching these batches of rain working off. Again, all eyes will be on Tokyo and really to the south to see if we get any impacts from Jangmi as we work our way down the road. Watching this weekend into next week. And I got you covered here. And watching these areas of rain that I mentioned, Bangladesh, uh, Bhutan, Nepal, uh, seeing some spots that will be approaching 100 millimeters of rain. Bangladesh though little bit more. It could be upwards of 200 mm or even more. So, a tropical storm is forming. It is a depression now. It is forming. It will get stronger and it looks to become a typhoon as it works its way through the Philippine Sea just off to the east of the Philippines. It does appear now to be a threat to land.

[00:12:48]Watching the islands, especially as we get into southern sections, southern islands of Japan. Uh watching Okinawa as we go forward in an active period ahead.

[00:12:56]It is going to get so busy. But thank you for taking the time to be part of this channel. Mr. Weatherman Asia, I hope you're doing well. Be safe with the downpours. Yap and Palao, I'll be watching your comments and elsewhere.

[00:13:06]Let me know how the weather is doing.

[00:13:07]I'll be watching those comments as we go throughout the day. Have a good and safe day ahead.