An OUTBREAK of VIOLENT STORMS Is Coming...

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]A severe weather outbreak is on the way for millions of Americans over the next 7 days. In today's video, I'll show you the shifting upper level map that is driving this brand new outbreak of severe weather, plus the storm fuel that is surging north out of the Gulf, helping to bring strong to violent storms. And if you stay long enough, I'll show you exactly who has the highest threat of violent tornadoes out of this outbreak.

[00:00:27]Well, we've got quite the week ahead of us in the weather department as I'm tracking a severe weather outbreak on the way. The main driver behind this is a switch up in the upper level map. You can see here at our 500 mibar jetream uh taking a look at it and it definitely is showing that very active pattern coming out of the west is the first thing I want you to kind of note here. You can see it's wave after wave of piece of energy or pieces of energy rather kind of working on through. So, as of right now, the reason things are a little bit more quiet is we have this big trough in the eastern United States. Uh, and as I've said many times in this channel, anytime you have winds coming together here in the upper levels, which is exactly what we have right now over the eastern US, that's going to create sinking motion thanks to confluence as we say a loft. So, that's keeping things a little bit more quiet. That's leading to higher pressure, sunnier days uh for a lot of us. But, the pattern is, per usual, going to get a big change up here as we go into the weekend. Notice what starts to happen here. we start to get this very strong flow out of the west that starts to work through the Rockies and this time the wind starts to separate in the upper levels and you can see that here. Notice how our wind barbs are kind of doing something like this and then elsewhere they're taking this pathway that's leaving a very big void folks in the atmosphere especially in the northern plains. That is where we are going to have a lot of dluence as we call this in the upper levels that is going to create a tremendous amount of uh lift down here at the surface. So, I really do have my eyes on the Dakotas, Nebraska, up into Iowa, Minnesota. That looks like a real hot spot region to me right now for active severe weather, but it's going to be round after round. So, you go deeper into it here by Monday. Uh you can see our winds are uh still kind of taking this pathway and even more areas start to get in on that region of lift. Oklahoma, parts of Texas, Missouri, I even think potentially into sections of Illinois, out through Wisconsin going to get in on the action.

[00:02:16]And I do think some of that dluence will make it into areas further east. Now, will the windshare make it with it?

[00:02:22]Well, that's another piece of the puzzle to kind of watch for. But either way, you can see what's driving this. It is that round after round after round of lift in the atmosphere basically here as we go over the next seven days or so.

[00:02:34]Another way to look at it is by taking a look at our uh velocity map and or vorticity rather is probably better way to use this. Vorticity obviously is velocity with uh kind of the spin involved with it. And uh this is a good tool to look at where there are pieces of energy in the atmosphere. And notice there's that piece of energy over the eastern United States right now. But uh it's areas in front of the energy specifically that get the lift. So a lot of that lift really over the Atlantic right now in front of that uh and over it itself where the energy is. It's where you kind of get sinking motion as these less bright colors start to move in behind it. A lot of meteorological equations behind that. But just trust me on it for today, right? How about that?

[00:03:12]Uh so that's why we're seeing that quiet weather over the east. But all that energy will start to move into the plains. You see round after round specifically right here uh by Sunday, Saturday and Monday. That looks like a real hot spot right now for active severe weather uh into that period. And then you can see another round of active vorticity starts to work into the plains here uh through really the heart of the country right through those flyover states as Jason Aldine once sung about there by the middle of next week. So it's a loaded pattern folks to just put it quite honest with you. It's not just the upper levels that aren't playing nice. the lower levels are getting quite unstable. Let me show you what I'm talking about really quick. Literally 10 seconds. Go ahead, like the video and subscribe if this video is helping you plan your week ahead so you're always up to date with the latest model data. All right, back to the forecast. Well, obviously for severe weather, one part of the equation is the lift I just showed you, but you also need instability. And unfortunately at the same time that all these upper level pieces of energy are flying across the country, we've got strong high pressure off the eastern seabboard and that is just bringing a train of moisture and instability up out of the Gulf. Even going to get some energy out of the Pacific and the Atlantics also combine onto this. So we're just kind of maximizing our instability map here from a Dupoint standpoint. And the Dupoint important because that's moisture in the low levels. You obviously need moisture for storms and it is definitely, you can see, ramping up wave after wave after wave in terms of pieces of energy here with that flow up out of the south. All right, on top of that, that is going to increase our instability. If we take a look at our most unstable Cape values, uh, or basically, think of this just as good oldfashioned storm fuel. Uh, you're going to see that this is going to also kind of be escalating over the next couple days. So, for tomorrow for your Thursday, uh, things pretty tame. You can see by 11, 2:00 p.m. 5:00 p.m. we do get some increasing cape values here over parts of Oklahoma. And I'll show you the precipitation map in a moment.

[00:05:03]We'll see if that kind of lines up with some storms or not. Uh but the general ballpark here, I think, is the weekend is when things really start to go downhill. Check it out by Saturday. We have an abundant amount of thunderstorm fuel from Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, back down into Kansas, even into parts of Oklahoma and Texas there. Some instability even stretching out into the Ohio Valley there. uh you could see, but uh it just keeps coming, folks. Sunday looks like a very big day from a tornado standpoint. Check it out. We have abundant amounts of thunderstorm fuel over the heart of the country. And check it out. The train right out of the Gulf.

[00:05:35]Keep moving it north. It's uh lining up well with that Dupoint map I showed you.

[00:05:40]You keep it going. It is round after round after round of instability. Now, maybe a little bit of a lull by later next week. You can see here by Thursday uh and into Friday, we get a bit of a break, but that's still seven days ahead of us of active severe weather. So, the upper levels, the lower levels, you put it all together and you're going to get supercells. Let's show you that uh future radar map and the supercell composite so you can find out exactly where the tornado threat is the highest.

[00:06:04]Well, our thunderstorm map or our surface analysis, if you will. You can see those rounds of storms on the way.

[00:06:10]This is the latest run of the GFS model.

[00:06:12]Let's kind of run you through it over the next uh day or two. You can see by tomorrow on Thursday uh we are seeing some rain over the eastern US that is out in front of that system I told you most of it kind of offshore there but you are getting a little bit of rain up into the northeast with some low pressure forming thanks to that upper level system I showed you but yeah sunny as I mentioned into the Ohio Valley and here into the Carolinas Georgia drought continuing definitely as not a whole lot of relief here ongoing here we go by the time you go into later on into Thursday by uh or Friday I should say notice Storms are going to start to get going. Map is still relatively quiet, but Saturday you get some storms here from St. Louis potentially into parts of the Ohio Valley. Those could pack a punch with some severe weather in them.

[00:06:55]But the planes are where the real storm energy is going to be. Check it out. By Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday, those look like very high threat days. And the core of it here is right into the northern plains. I really do think that is the place with the highest tornado potential is right up into that region.

[00:07:13]And in fact, if I overlap this with the uh supercell composite indicy, you'll see exactly what I'm talking about.

[00:07:19]Notice this is the threat of supercells.

[00:07:21]Where is the supercell threat, the highest? We'll back it up a little bit.

[00:07:24]And uh you will definitely see some ingredients a little bit maybe tomorrow, but it's really Friday, your Saturday, Sunday. Check out Sunday. You are just maxing out the supercell map here over parts of uh the northern plains, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, uh and surrounding regions there. and you keep it going and it is just round after round after round of potential supercells here for the weekend and into the start of next week.

[00:07:49]Check it out. Some of that even trying to get up into the northeast. We could see some supercell ingredients. Where you're not seeing a whole lot of it is down here into the south, specifically the Carolinas, Virginia. That's due to this high pressure you see uh just kind of once again keeping a lid on the atmosphere from any active severe weather. and uh you keep it going and those supercell ingredients keep coming in waves and waves and waves and eventually it does start to die off a little bit as we go towards the end of next week. So what are the key takeaways here? Uh what is the main thing that you should kind of uh keep in mind as we continue to go through the forecast? A favorable upper level pattern for an outbreak. I really do expect a severe weather outbreak starting this week and into early next week. The Great Plains will be the hot spot. Specifically the northern plains is where I see the highest threat of um tornadoes and specifically I I do think we could even see a strong to violent tornadoes out of this as well. And the eastern US heat dome, we didn't talk a lot about that, but I think the southeastern United States is going to get uh some warmer weather out of this as that high pressure I mentioned is going to kind of be locking things in place and keeping sinking motion and a warming trend. You can see that here with your future radar map. Uh most of the storms in the plains, some into the northeast, but further southeast from there looking pretty dry and warm. All righty, folks.

[00:09:03]Appreciate you tuning in. Make sure to come back tomorrow for a brand new update on this likely severe weather outbreak.