Predicting the Bottom 3: Who is ACTUALLY Going Down?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Hello everybody. Welcome along to another check-in with the state of play at the bottom of the Premier League and who may well be joining us in the Championship by virtue of relegation from the top tier. And I've got to say, I was expecting things to squish up in the Premier League survival battle last weekend. It went exactly the opposite way I thought it was. box office popcorn weekend and the elephant in the room that team from North London there which would probably be the biggest relegation story we've ever had in the Premier League. If you think this is impossible, well, the impossible is getting more possible by the week looking at that and looking at the results and looking at what we are about to discuss. Why don't you get down there in the comments right now and tell me who are your three to go down? But let's be honest, it's not who you're three to go down, it's who is your one. Who's going to finish in 18th place? Let me know your thoughts. We'll deal with Wolves and Burnley quickly.

[00:00:58]Apologies um Wolves and Burnley fans for that, but it's highly, highly, highly improbable that they're going to be in the conversation other than games against the teams going for survival.

[00:01:10]And there are a fair few of those to be fair. But I'm going to ask the question for these four. What would going down look like? How would that work out? How would that play out? So, for these two, I'll flip the question. Invert it. What would it look like for Wolves and Burnley to stay up? Well, you're basically looking at them winning all of their games. And I mean, a collapse from West Ham, they're one above the line.

[00:01:34]It's It's not going to happen. A one-point swing in the next round. And Wolves are already down, aren't they? Um Burnley at the moment have got a four point uh sorry a four game um kind of outlook in terms of they'll be gone with one more point um swing. They'll be gone with four games to go. You can see that happening. Um they could be out of here by the time round 34 is over. We'll just quickly touch on um their influence on others though because Wolves next two games are away at Leads and at home to Spurs. They also play Burnley on the final day of the season, which might just be a nice big bag of irrelevance.

[00:02:14]Uh Burnley also are going to be up to their necks in this conversation because they face Forest in the next game and then in two games time they play away at Leads and of course that game I mentioned um on the final day of the season. I hope that's like a 64 somewhere and they at least give us some entertainment and they give their long-suffering fans some goals to talk about. So, um I dare say we've dealt with Wolves and Burnley, which brings us to the um cockrol-shaped elephant in the room of Spurs. And I mean, I don't know how you guys feel. I still have this thing in my head of come on Ben, this is not going to happen. Spurs are not going to be in a champ. You're not going to be covering Spurs on the Benjamin Bloom football channel in the Championship.

[00:03:00]That's absurd. That's ridiculous. But, you know, absurd and ridiculous things happen from time to time. every couple of generations and maybe we're about to see one of them. I mean, the the only thing people are bringing up in comparison is Lester win in the Premier League, which is our kind of once in a lifetime, once in a century type thing.

[00:03:19]Maybe this is the um the equivalent down at the bottom, you tell me. But at the weekend we had for Spurs the horrible imperfect [ __ ] storm of Spurs losing at Sunderland deserby trying a a front three and um had another injury to Romero as well and this was coupled with across the weekend on Friday night not only did West Ham win to put Spurs in the bottom three they won 4-0 um against Wolves we had a forest draw and then on Monday night things went from bad to bad to worse because if you're Spurs and you're targeting teams, you can either target the team that is closest to you, that stands to reason, or long-term, you kind of target the team you think maybe the weakest um squadwise and the most prone to you've been able to catch them, which would be leads who are in the last year. But Lead now have a sixpoint lead after a brilliant performance to beat Manchester United away from home on Monday night. So bad to bad to worse to ridiculous to absurd for Spurs and they are now odds on to drop. Let's be honest, when we go through the rest of the odds, the bookies are hedging their bets massively and they're going to make a ton of money whatever happens here.

[00:04:35]But Spurs, yeah, I can imagine the money's piling in on Spurs just for the reasons that it's such a big story. And let's be honest, a lot of people would like to see it happen just because it would be something completely new and completely um fantastical and amazing for a lot of people in terms of um what they've seen in the Premier League and the big six actually being split up. Um talking about the big six when the Premier League was was first formed.

[00:05:00]Were they even a big four? Not even a big six? I don't know about that. But Spurs were definitely one of them at the inception of the Premier League. 10 to1 to drop to the Championship. now Spurs and really there's no transfer window.

[00:05:15]The players are bang out of form. The trend is horribly down. There's no confidence. The team's fragile. There's some injuries there. Um ve very long-term ones that we talked about with Kulleski and Madison and now you recent ones with Romero who we just mentioned as well. The only thing that can swing this now is Roberto Deserby who's just gone in there now. It's been from Thomas Frank to Eagle Tuda to Roberto Deserby which already you know my rules on three managers in a season already doesn't smell good. Is that the only the only hope they've got now? Are we saying if Deserby doesn't get the tune out of Spurs and the couple of wins but is it more like three wins? I don't know. Um then are are Spurs actually actually done for? So if we ask the question what does Spurs surviving look like? Um well I mean if they're catching leads that pretty much requires a collapse from leads and for leads to only win one more of their six games which would require Spurs mathematically to win three and draw one to go by. So you're talking about a leads collapse. Yes, they're a lot closer to West Ham and um Forest there, but Spurs need Derby to have an impact. Um and what do you reckon? Two wins. I think two wins is the magic number. I think all of those teams there. Well, you tell me if you support one of these teams. If I promised you now two wins from the last six, maybe a draw. Seven points from the last six and shake hands on that and then it's in the lap of the gods what the rest do. I wonder if most sets of fans would take that. I mean, leads fans definitely what seven points to 43. You ain't going down with 43. They take Forest to 40. And Spurs then if you get that would be 37.

[00:07:05]Can you get a bit of a collapse from West Ham or Forest? Just looking at those Spurs fixtures. The next two are gargantuanly massive. It's Brighton of course deserve his old club playing well and it is at Tottenham where the anxiety and the ability to trip over their own two feet has been massive. Then they go away to Wolves and you then you feel Spurs need to score four points from those two games minimum, don't they? We need to be sat here for Spurs to survive. Then it'll be played 34 points 34 and then can they push it and get over the point per game and end at 39 or 40 which would be 10 points from the last six which they're showing absolutely no signs of doing at the moment. They do still have a gigantic game in round 36 at home to leads. So if I'm a Spurs fan, I'm looking at those three games in the next four. Brighton home, Wolves away, they've got Villa away. I don't know, could they pull something out the backside there and then leads home and then if it goes to the last two lap of the gods, isn't it?

[00:08:10]Chelsea away, Everton at home. I was saying to Conor McGilligan on three at the back. I've got this funny feeling that if Spurs are still in it, by the time we get to the last game, they'll get out of it. I think if Spurs drop, they'll do it in round 37, losing to Chelsea, four-point gap, and then it'll be done. But we shall see. West Ham are in great form. They are 13-8 to um to drop down to the league uh down to the Championship. Um and over a 10ame form table, they are seventh in the league. So of all of the teams down there, West Ham have by far the best trend line over the longest period. And if you look at, you know, basically everybody there other than um leads, look, Burnley didn't change the manager, but everybody has um changed the manager and um Forest and Spurs obviously multiple times as well. West Ham went early um I suppose Forest went early as well and then changed again, didn't they? But hey, you take my point. West Ham went early and have stuck with um Nuno and they do seem to be getting the benefits of that and the benefits of the January window. Castalano scored twice in that game against Wolves. Yeah, it did go a bit loose and yeah, they were playing Wolves, but as I just said, 10ame form table, seventh position. So, West Ham have got that nice trend line, but I don't know if West Ham just stay at one point per game, I still think they're at risk. They finished with 38.

[00:09:46]Spurs three wins from the last six.

[00:09:48]Would go past them, wouldn't they, on 39. It's possible. So, West Ham need to finish the job here. And that possibly involves dragging in Nottingham Forest.

[00:09:58]But I repeat, the best trend line is with the Hammers at the moment and longest term. Uh, Forest, I don't know if anyone can explain this to me, anyone who's a bit more of an expert on gambling odds than I am. West Hammer 13-8 to go down. Forester five to one.

[00:10:14]Okay, they've got the goal difference and they've got one more point. That's the same thing, isn't it? One more point and the the goal difference, I guess.

[00:10:21]No, it's not really, is it? Because you've scored the one more point, you still got the gold. Forget I said that.

[00:10:25]But I just don't understand why um West Ham would be 13 to8 and Forest would be so much um longer in terms of 5 to1. As I said a couple of minutes ago, I don't think the bookies have a clue here and they're hedging the bets and it probably just switch the odds if um West Ham win the next game and um you know Spurs come with them and Forest don't essentially.

[00:10:45]Maybe there's a fixtures argument in there. Um I like Forest squad but then I think Spurs have got quite a good squad so maybe that goes out the window there.

[00:10:53]One thing I don't like about Forest to Harbor on a negative and at time of recording Forest have a Europa League game against Porto tonight. They drew the first leg. Um, and it's a bit of a no-win situation really because if they win, won't it be two leer? Be another two games minimum semi-final in the Europa League going in. Um, so that's extra fixtures. And if they lose, can you make the argument there, oh, they've wasted their time and their energy getting all the way through to the quarters and now are they going to be knackered for a mustwin game against Burnley? So the narrative I was talking to Connor about at three at the back is the worst case scenario for Forest is they give up a load of emotional physical energy um and either get past or don't get past Porto and whichever way round you can argue it being that it might prejudice what's then going to happen in the other games if they were to for example draw against Burnley dropping points then look they go Sunland away Chelsea away Newcastle home Man United away Bournemouth home I think Bournemouth might Forest bogey team as well. Is that right or is it the other way round? I think they're I think they are Forest Bogey team. Forest fans, let me know in the chat. I don't know if you could get stuck in the mud there if Forest don't stick three points on and go to 36 against Burnley. So, if the question is what would Forest getting relegated look like? Well, it looks like West Ham staying the course that will send West Ham past Forest. Forest either being wounded by exiting the I realize I'm playing speaking out of both sides of my mouth here. Um exiting the Europa League or going through in the extra fixtures causing uh more bother and then you do need probably those let's be honest is three wins or at least two wins two draws for Spurs in the last six to get to 37 38 points. Goal difference is all right for Spurs, isn't it? So, Forest, not out of the woods, and I don't quite understand why the odds are quite so um different between um West Ham and Forest Leads. I've written down three words on my pad here in their hands. And it really really is. If I go straight to the question, what does leads getting relegated look like now?

[00:13:07]They have to pretty much collapse, don't they? And we're talking about probably not winning for the rest of the season because if leads win one game between now and the rest of the season, then that causes three teams to have to score 40 points to survive. And um if you get that amount of teams in that tide rising, then yeah, problem. But is it likely? Is it that likely? I don't know.

[00:13:30]And when one looks at Leads United's fixtures, there's a couple of massive games. The next game is at home to Wolves. That feels like the almighty cup final of all cup finals at the weekend. Leadeds are going to be so motivated to win that. I I think we're all going to be sat here saying if leads beat Wolves at the weekend that they are safe. 39 points from 33 games and setting the target for everybody. And look, Leed's got the best goal difference as well there. And that will improve obviously if they win.

[00:14:02]Setting the target for everybody at 40 points to get past them. So, it's absolutely in Leed's hands.

[00:14:08]Leadeds fans, I know how anxious you can get and I know what you guys are like, but the answer to the question, what does leads getting relegated look like is probably them not winning another game. Um, but there's also um, okay, there's an FA Cup semi-final in there, so I can't make the argument that Forest might be distracted by Porto and not that leads might be distracted by Chelsea, but immediately after that, Leads play at home to Burnley. So basically if leads even if they lose all their other games 5-nil if they beat Wolves and they beat Burnley at Ellen Road they have 42 points and they've got to be safe. They they just have got to be safe or they're the most unlucky team in the world if you go down with 42 points and basically I don't even know if it's mathematically possible teams playing each other for you know you'd be looking at Spurs getting over two points per game for the last six games. Yeah, it probably is possible still this far out, but it is so in Leed's hands now. So, where does that leave us? Well, I I can't shake it, guys. And call me um maybe this is just decades of watching football where Spurs don't do this, that makes you form a view that they can't go down. And I'm wrestling with it. And I do think the only time I'll believe it is if we are at round 37. And who does they who do they have at Chelsea, didn't they? And basically, I know if they lose to Chelsea that week, they go down and it'll be done before the fight. Then then I'll probably believe it. But something in my brain says that the uh squad assemble at Spurs plus deservy plus size of club and storyline and everything around it means that they could just win back-to- back games, which then puts West Ham and Forest at risk, doesn't it? So I don't think West Ham are going to go down though because of the way it's trending. So at the moment I've got in my likely scenarios either it being Spurs just can't get a win and they don't do it and they get relegated in round 37 against Chelsea or I think it's Forest and I think it's Forest like the Europa League thing gets in the way. they draw to um draw to Burnley and then that hard run they just can't get a can't get a win and either the Europe Europa League damages them any which way. I'm not sure I see leads collapsing and losing five out of the last six and ending on 37 points and going down. I I think they get enough points in the games against Wolves and Burnley. So, right now, give me a coin and I'll flip it on either Forest um their fixtures or Spurs and just the the chaos taking them down. Which is more likely?

[00:17:01]I don't know. Forest feels more likely than Spurs, but Spurs could go. It's never going to feel likely in my head that Spurs are going to go down. So, maybe you probably want me to do another one of these every now and then.

[00:17:12]Finally, I'll finally predict it will be Spurs. But yeah, I do not think it's going to be West Ham. Do you want an answer? Do you want a definitive one?

[00:17:22]Let's just going to say Forest right now. I don't know even even if I believe what I'm saying there, but maybe I'll come around to Spurs. Let me know your thoughts down there in the comments. And yeah, it's not your three to go down, is it? Who is finishing in 18th place?

[00:17:36]Stick that lot in order if you want.

[00:17:38]It's a great debate. Get involved in it.

[00:17:40]We had it over at three at the back on Conor McGilligan's channel. So check out um Con's fine work there. and show me your work in the comments. I I haven't got a clue. Basically, I'm trying to rationalize it. It's quite hard. You have a go in the comments. Who the hell goes down out of that