Larry Johnson: We Can't Actually Win This War — Here's the Math

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Um, you've said that strategically at the strategic level before we get into the tactical that it looks like we're going to kick this off again. Um, but you had that little nugget in there talking about how there is a uh you know, there's a lot of pressure to resolve this politically. Could you break this down and and give some context to see which side may win out or what's more probable?

[00:00:20]>> Yeah. Well, I use I I've used the analogy of the the Gambino crime family and one of the one of their soldiers goes into Brooklyn to a pizza parlor and promises, "Hey, you know, uh you need to pay your insurance. You pay your insurance, your place doesn't catch on fire." So, the protection money is up front. Mhm. And but what happens when the pizza parlor gets you paid the protection money and your pizza parlor gets burned down?

[00:00:46]Well, that's what's happened in the Persian Gulf. The United States went into all the Gulf Arabs and basically said, "Hey, we need to uh protect you against those Iranians." Ignoring ignoring the fact that uh you know, we we were also selling weapons to Iran during Iran-Contra.

[00:01:02]That's a whole 'nother issue.

[00:01:03]But uh so the Gulf Arabs, they were promised protection, which allowed all these US military bases, at least 13 of them, to be established there with Al Udeid as the number one base. Uh I don't know if you if you're if you've been through Al Udeid? Believe so. I believe so, yeah.

[00:01:19]>> Yeah, I was there in 2006 uh in went to into Iraq into Balad Mhm.

[00:01:25]About the same time I was there. Yeah, I was My job was to go train a Navy SEAL on how to be on television, but that's a whole >> [laughter] >> Honest to God, true story. JCS JCS kitted me out and sent me over.

[00:01:38]>> [laughter] >> That'd be awesome. Good job.

[00:01:40]>> Yeah, hilarious. Um but uh you know, they were promised you know, got all these airbases. And then, hey, the the kicker is also buy buy our US Treasury bills and buy all of our crappy military equipment. Mhm. And I guarantee you you're not going to be hit. You'll be safe.

[00:01:58]Well, we kick off the war. We don't tell them we're going to attack uh Iran. And then Iran retaliates and just pounds the hell out of all these bases and attacks infrastructure, destroys critical infrastructure in Qatar. Qatar in particular really took a beating.

[00:02:14]Uh and all of a sudden these countries are going, "Whoa, whoa, what Wait a second.

[00:02:18]Where is our protection?" And it was like, "Oh, well, our our bad." So, now what's happened is they're turning to Russia and China. Mhm. Cuz Russia and China are saying, "We got a better deal for you. We promise we're not going to get you into a war. We're going to keep you out of a war."

[00:02:33]So, what we saw now 3 weeks ago when Donald Trump announced his Project Freedom, "We're going to open the Strait of Hormuz." Mhm. And uh um um within 36 hours he said, "Never mind, we're going to cause a call a pause."

[00:02:46]Well, the reason they called the pause is the Saudis said, "No. You're not using our airspace at all." Right. So, shut it down. And Trump tried to call and, you know, sweet talk Muhammad bin Salman. That failed.

[00:02:59]So, now we are in uh the you know, here's Trump again gearing up. We're going to attack. We're going to We're going to let him have it.

[00:03:06]Uh but the the Saudis are hosting the Hajj as they do every year.

[00:03:11]The Hajj is a one of the obligations of every Muslim one time in your life to go to Mecca, Medina to follow the rituals, to reenact the Prophet Ibrahim and the Prophet Muhammad uh to go through these uh variety of rituals. And it's about a uh it's it's a 7-8 day affair. Mhm.

[00:03:31]Well, that that's that starts on Sunday, the 24th.

[00:03:35]And um I am told that right now the US is conducting no air operations over Saudi Arabia at all. It's all being done All the air refueling is being done in Iraq.

[00:03:46]Jeez. Yeah, so that means without without Saudi Arabia uh our ability to continue attacking Iran is going to be constrained. And and people need to understand, you know, the logistics involved with this.

[00:04:00]Uh, we've got the tankers, the KC-135s were at Prince Sultan Air Base. Mhm.

[00:04:05]Yeah. And how do I know that? Not through classified information. My neighbor up the street, he's a he's a pilot. We got talking and he said, "Yeah, my son's coming home." I said, "From where?" He goes, "Saudi Arabia." I goes, "Well, what's he doing there?" He goes, "He's a KC-135 pilot." I went, "Oh, man." I said, "The my understanding is that's a pretty pretty shitty situation." He goes, "Yeah, it is." He says, he's told me he can only talk to me about it when he gets home.

[00:04:31]So, so that's how I know that the KC-135s are there.

[00:04:35]But when you do the the the the F-35s, the F-16s, those the ones that aren't carrier-based, they're over in Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Jordan near Amman.

[00:04:47]Uh, they're in Israel. And so when you when you lay out the distance, those planes have a combat radius of 550 mi.

[00:04:54]Mhm. Well, to get to Riyadh, it's like 820 mi or if they fly to Kuwait City, it's 720 mi. So, that means you're going to have to even reach that point, you're going to have to have at least one air refueling. They they don't have the ability then to fly deep into Iran at all. They've got to do launch standoff weapons like Tomahawk, JASSM.

[00:05:16]And then they got to turn around and get another air refuel. So, the this whole air refueling operation is critical to it.

[00:05:23]And I guess we saw in the report to Congress yesterday or day before, uh, we've lost seven KC-135s so far in this whole thing.

[00:05:30]>> 42 aircraft overall. Yeah, to a cost I calculated at $2.5 billion worth of aircraft.

[00:05:38]Jeez. Yeah. It's like 25 800 800 million of it are the MQ-9 Reapers. You know, they those go for 35 million a pop. And the Triton Did you read the price tag on that new drone that they came out with, the Triton? I did, and that has a >> [laughter] >> donkulous cost everyone, too.

[00:05:57]250 million dollars? Are you kidding me?

[00:06:00]>> Yeah, I think the the airframe that it replaced had a final price tag of like 30 million a piece. Yeah. And it it's like so what are you Are you really getting that much more of a capability or is this like another boondoggle? Yeah, it's outrageous.

[00:06:16]Yeah. But yeah, no, it's um you're on some really, really good stuff and one one follow-on question I'd like to ask about Saudi Arabia is you know, they're they're I guess you could call them a an outstanding member of BRICS.

[00:06:30]Mhm.

[00:06:30]And at the same time, they are touted uh more often than not by the White House as this great partner in the Middle East.

[00:06:41]Um and it looks like they are not on board with what we're doing, which is I mean, I have no problem with that, but how does that How do you think that actually represents the power dynamic that's going on between BRICS, Russia, China, and the United States vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia? Well, yeah, the Saudis have been actually lukewarm towards BRICS. They've been sort of uh They remind me a little bit of uh Luca Brasi from the first Godfather movie, you know, where he was asked to go to the to the other family and pretend like he wanted to defect. Mhm. That that sort [clears throat] of, you know, Saudi Arabia is a little bit like that Luca Brasi character. Hmm, do I want to join you or not? You know, I'll figure it out. Uh but they've been screwed.

[00:07:25]And they were they've been basically promised, "Yeah, we got this in hand.

[00:07:29]There's no way Iran We're going to take out the top Iranian leadership. We're going to We're going to wipe them out.

[00:07:34]We're going to uh have our own guys in place. The the regime will collapse.

[00:07:38]You'll be great." Mhm. And the Saudis went along with that. So, okay.

[00:07:41]Sounds good.

[00:07:43]>> [laughter] >> Well, the didn't turn out that way.

[00:07:47]And and now they they've got an issue.

[00:07:49]Uh you know, I I'm going to repeat something, you know, people that have watched me on some other podcast may just say, "Okay, you're repeating yourself." But it's an important point that Americans need to understand.

[00:08:00]We think we've weakened the leadership of Iran.

[00:08:03]But what we've done is and put it in terms of your own military service.

[00:08:09]Uh the top five guys, apart from the head of the you got the IRGC commander. Uh then you have Peskesian.

[00:08:18]Well, he fought in the Iran-Iraq War as a medic.

[00:08:22]Uh Arachi, the foreign minister.

[00:08:25]And and they fought with the IRGC.

[00:08:28]Arachi fought also with the IRGC. He was a medic.

[00:08:32]Galibov, the head of the parliament. He fought 8 years in combat. Uh IRGC.

[00:08:39]And Mostaba Khamenei, the new Ayatollah. He did 2 years combat, 1987, 1988. He went in as a 17-year-old kid.

[00:08:50]Now, he's from a privileged family.

[00:08:52]He could have, you know, he could have sought the you know, like the Donald Trump the bone Mr. Bonespur who avoided service in Vietnam.

[00:09:00]But he didn't. So, now you've got this cadre of five people who are basically at the top of the Iranian government.

[00:09:05]They're all combat veterans for God's sake.

[00:09:08]Now, you know what that means. You you don't necessarily have to have served with somebody, but you know that you guys have had the same experience.

[00:09:15]And that's what that's what we need to understand is taking place in Iran right now. They're not divided. They're not carping at each other. You know, they come out of they've all experienced combat in a war that killed 200,000 Iranians thanks to our intervention and assistance.