James Spann's Afternoon Briefing - Monday 4.27.26

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:02]You're watching [music] the Alabama Weather Network.

[00:00:09]It's Monday, April 27th. This is James Span. We've got some active weather. We have rounds of storms tonight and then another round tomorrow night. And for both of those, we might be dealing with a few severe storms. I think the higher impact event will be tomorrow night. But first off, we'll take the storms tonight. We take these things one at a time. So, a lot to talk about. Needless to say, let's begin with the current upper air. Look. And again, we have a a big trough in the western states. And out ahead of that, this disturbed southwest flow aloft with little waves embedded in that. We'll check the visible satellite view for most of Alabama. It's a mostly sunny, very warm Monday. Uh we'll check the radar composite. We've got one lone shower in Mississippi that's a little to the west of West Point and Starkville and that's basically dissipating. It It's tried to get going but it's just fizzling out as we speak here. But you can see Alabama totally rain-free this afternoon and most spots are above 80. A few locations over east and north Alabama in the upper 70s. Looks like the warm spots are Demopoulos and Monroville at 87.

[00:01:18]So, we have a tornado watch in effect for parts of Missouri and Illinois, the area is in yellow on that map.

[00:01:26]And we've got a level four out of five risk, a moderate risk in that same area.

[00:01:32]Uh, just south of St. Louis, parts of Missouri and Illinois. We have a level three out of five risk uh from near Little Rock up toward Evansville, Indiana. The broad risk running all all the way from Texas to the Great Lakes.

[00:01:45]And in Alabama, remember this outlook extends through 700 a.m. tomorrow. We have a level two out of five risk over the northwestern corner of the state up around the Scholes. We have a level one out of five marginal risk down to around Interstate 59. [snorts] And again, the main concern with the storms coming in here tonight, strong winds. Uh but there certainly could be some very meaningful tornadoes just north and west of here.

[00:02:11]West Tennessee, North Mississippi, it's close. But I think for Alabama, the main threat tonight coming from strong winds.

[00:02:16]And again, we'll take a look at modeling in all of this in a moment. Uh this is the probabilistic outlook for tornadoes tonight.

[00:02:24]And you can see those level one, level two intensity hatches north and west of the state. And in Alabama, that green area, that means a 2 to 4% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. So for the storms around Florence, the northwest corner, we'll have to watch those for any sign of rotation. But for most of North Alabama, the main concern tonight coming from strong winds. So tomorrow, we now have a level three out of five risk from central Mississippi into northeast Texas and southeast Louisiana.

[00:02:55]Uh and this is for the activity late tomorrow and tomorrow night. In Alabama, we have a level two out of five risk all the way down to around Thomasville, Caller, and Fort Payne. Areas in yellow.

[00:03:09]little marginal risk right below that, but that enhanced risk is still back off to the west. This is the probabilistic outlook for tornadoes. And we have a low chance of a few isolated tornadoes over west and northwest Alabama. The green on that map and understand what that means that the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point is 2 to 4%. But this is the main concern, severe wind, and again by definition this is wind of 58 mph or greater. The chance of that within 25 miles of a given point is 30 to 44% over northwest and west Alabama. That's a very meaningful number. So, some of the storms could really pack a punch with really strong winds tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.

[00:03:53]And then on Wednesday, we have just a lowend marginal risk of severe storms for leftover convection over South Alabama uh Wednesday. That's kind of a low-end threat. But again, on the positive side here, we're going to get some rain. Well, we're a state that really needs it. Rain amounts for the next seven days. North Alabama 2 to three inches. South Alabama 1 to 2 in.

[00:04:15]So, let's get into modeling here. Model fans will kind of roll with the high resolution convection allowing her model HR.

[00:04:24]This is this evening at 7:00. And most of Alabama is still dry, but again, those storms you see over West Tennessee and North Mississippi, those could drop a tornado. It's not that far away. So again, we'll watch radar trends carefully, but it looks like the bulk of that will stay just north and west of Alabama. Uh this is the significant tornado parameter this evening at 7:00.

[00:04:45]And uh those numbers are extremely elevated near Memphis back into parts of northeastern Arkansas. Uh, in fact, the max you can see there down on the grid is what, 16 units. That's about as high as it gets. So, uh, there could be some very dangerous storms over uh, parts of Arkansas and the adjacent parts of West Tennessee and North Mississippi in terms of tornado activity. But notice in Alabama, we do not have any elevated STP values. So, this is tonight at midnight and storms are moving into the state.

[00:05:18]So, we think the early evening storms will stay north and west of here. the main batch of storms coming in late tonight, 11 o'clock, midnight, that's when it should begin. And again, the significant tornado parameter values, there's they're elevated still north and west of the state. It just again, could there be an isolated tornado over northwest Alabama? Yes. But it sure looks like for most of North Alabama, the main concern is wind. So, let's go to tomorrow morning at 6:00 and we still got rain around. It should be just more of a, you know, outflow dominant rain mass with some bedded thunder. No concern with tornadoes at that point. So again, just to to give you the progression, this is this evening at 7:00.

[00:06:04]Storms that could be severe over West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Those storms creeping in here 11:00 to midnight. And again, we'll have to watch those. But the main concern, strong straight line winds. Then by 6:00 tomorrow morning, storms are weakening, pushing deeper into the state. And then by midday tomorrow, it's quiet. That's 1:00 tomorrow afternoon. Just not much happening at all. So, a decent chunk of the day tomorrow, dry. But here comes round number two. Uh this is tomorrow afternoon at 5. And again, severe storms are firing over Arkansas, West Tennessee, and around the Mississippi Delta. And that stuff comes in here tomorrow evening. This is tomorrow evening at 7:00. And those storms could really pack a punch with potential for really strong winds. So, I really do think of the two nights, the the higher impact will most likely be tomorrow night. But still, be on your guard tonight. Understand that. But, uh, that looks like a situation where there could be some really strong winds and and again, the STP values are higher. So, there could be an isolated tornado tomorrow evening.

[00:07:08]And then by midnight tomorrow night, everything just becomes an outflow dominant rain mass. And it seems that the severe threat pretty much seems to be over at that point. So, uh, at this point, it looks like the main threat tomorrow will be from maybe about 5:00 in the afternoon until 11:00 at night.

[00:07:25]Um, and then by early Wednesday morning, this is 6:00 Wednesday morning, nothing more than a few leftover showers. So, that's the progression of events.

[00:07:37]Let's go to uh Thursday. Some cooler air dropping in behind a surface front. Any showers on Thursday should be over the southern half of the state. Pretty much the same thing on Friday. Maybe a few spotty showers over South Alabama. The northern half of the state looks to be cool and dry Thursday and Friday.

[00:07:54]Now, many questions about the weekend.

[00:07:56]Now, the new run here, the European, it's bringing the rain farther north.

[00:07:59]The run we showed you this morning had the rain confined to South Alabama. Now, it shows a statewide rain on Saturday.

[00:08:05]And this is a cool rain. There's no instability, no concern of any severe storms here. Just good oldfashioned rain. Uh but at the moment it looks like we might have to include the entire state with a good chance of rain on Saturday. And then by Sunday, that rain is out of here. And a week from today, Monday, May 4th, we have a broad trough over the eastern states. And we are dry and very pleasant. Let's go out 10 days.

[00:08:27]This is Thursday of next week, May the 7th. Pretty good trough coming into Texas and Oklahoma. Troughing over the northeastern states, at this point, we're looking to be rainfree. Rain for the next 15 days valid through May 12th.

[00:08:39]This is good. The mean, the green line, it's up here about 4 inches. We'll take that. We need every drop of that.

[00:08:46]Temperatures coming off the national blend of models, low 80s tomorrow and Wednesday. But look at the 60s on Friday and Saturday. Lows getting down in the mid40s by Sunday morning.

[00:08:58]Little Blackberry winter if you will.

[00:08:59]Then we bounce back with low 80s by the middle of next week. And the latest long range guidance just in. This is for May 5th through May 11th. Look at all the blue. the eastern twothirds of the country with temperatures below average if this forecast outlook verifies. Let's roll some children's of Alabama kid cam.

[00:09:17]Holtville Middle School slap out Alabama. Love it. Sixth graders in the lunchroom. Man, we had a great time today. These sixth graders are good.

[00:09:26]They can really learn the science. We did some discussion about forecasting analysis. Uh we talked about the tropical season, did some storm spotting. They were great. That's a great school and great teachers. So again, to everybody at Holtzville Middle School in El Moore County, thanks a lot for a great visit. And quickly, a shout out to everybody that came out to see us at the Tuscaloosa Public Library this past Saturday uh program to discuss April 27th, 2011. Of course, today's the today's anniversary, but uh we just took some time to honor those that lost their lives and uh we talked about the things we've learned, but had a huge crowd and wa look at the cake here. That's that's incredible. That is too good. I mean, that is good stuff. That's a piece of art right there.

[00:10:07]But uh we just needed a little time to talk. I think all of us that day changed so many of us. It certainly changed me and for those that lived through it, it changed them, too. But again, thanks to everybody for coming out to see us at the Tuscaloosa Public Library on Saturday. So, with all of this active weather, my schedule's a little up in the air. I am scheduled to be in Troy tomorrow morning for a homeschool group.

[00:10:33]will make a decision on that tonight if it's a go or no go. And tomorrow night it gets even more complicated because it is James Span bobblehead night at the Trash Pandas game at Toyota Field. And we've got rain and storms coming in. And uh uh there are many questions around that. Can they get the game in? Will I be able to make a quick appearance? Uh again, at the moment it's not looking especially good, but we'll make a decision on that tomorrow morning. But uh Wednesday things calm down. I I'll be speaking uh to the kids with the Alabama Connections Academy Wednesday morning.

[00:11:08]And then after that, I'll be speaking to my friends at Hunter Street Baptist Church in Hoover in the ESL program there. Thursday, Hampton Cove Middle School in Madison County. And then I will be at Cherokee Bend Elementary in Mountain Brook. And then Friday, I will be at Daniel Pratt Elementary in Prattville.

[00:11:28]And then Saturday, again, weather could be an issue here. I'm scheduled to throw out the first pitch at the Alabama baseball game on Saturday, but the new European guidance not looking that good, but that could change again. Uh, we got to get through two rounds of storms.

[00:11:41]Then we'll worry about the weekend. Uh, it will be on ABC 3340 News this evening. And don't forget, it's Weather Brains Night, the weekly show for weather geeks, dweebs, nerds, dorks, and weenies. 7 o'clock central time.

[00:11:54]YouTube.com/weatherbrains.

[00:11:58]And I will be on ABC 3340 News tonight.

[00:12:00]I'll be covering all the newscasts, four, five, six, and 10. And you can catch my forecasts every day on great radio stations around the state, including in Birmingham 987 Kiss. Thanks for watching. Have a marvelous Monday evening and God bless.