1st Tropical Wave!| Saturday, May 02, 2026's Forecast for Jamaica & the rest of the Caribbean

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hello everyone, Weather Jamaica here.

[00:00:03]Welcome to this updated video on the weather across Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean. It is Friday evening, May 1, 2026. Now, before we jump into it, please make sure that you all like this video. I'd really appreciate it if you all get this video to 100 likes. If you don't know by now, that's how the YouTube algorithm works. We all like the video and then the YouTube algorithm push this video out to more persons who are in the path of these tropical systems so that we can keep everyone safe especially during the eight months of Atlantic hurricane season that's August through to October. Share this video with your friends, your co-workers, your relatives and even your church brethren and subscribe if you haven't yet done so. Please ensure that you all utilize the progress bar that's located at the bottom of the video as well as the timestamps that are located not only in the comment section but the video description so that you can skip to the points in the video that you want to see the most in order to save time because we know that the videos over here are weather Jamaica can be very long. Leave a comment down below letting me know what that has been like in your year recently. Also feel free to ask any weather related question that you might have about the future of the weather in your specific area.

[00:01:10]Taking a look at the surface map of the Atlantic for this evening. You can see a ridge of high pressure to the north that we know is responsible for sending all of the eastly trains across the main deform region to the Caribbean. A trough right here situated to the north of the lesser antelles that extends all the way over to the north of the main development region. Another ridge of high pressure right here to the northwest of Africa.

[00:01:32]And would you look at that? There's a tropical wave right here off the west coast of Africa. Believe that this is the first tropical wave of the season to be honest.

[00:01:40]And if we take a look at the visible satellite images of the Atlantic before we lost sunlight, we can make out the clouds associated with that trough that extends from the waters to north of the leant all the way over into northern portion of North Atlantic. Can't even make out the tropical wave that's supposedly somewhere over here. Can't even make out the clouds. A lot of dry air sold and dust over there at this time. We can definitely make out the low to mid-level flow of the clouds being steered from east west. All courtesy of the ridges of high pressure to the north. We're still seeing the upper level wind shear blowing those cirrus clouds off towards the northeast if not the east northeast.

[00:02:20]And you know all of that is having to do with that jet stream down there. We'll be talking about the rest of the Caribbean weather later on. Let us focus our attention on the prediction that was made in yesterday's video about the aircraft Jamaica for today, Friday, May 1, 2026. It was stated that rain could have been in the forecast of parts of eastern, central, western, and especially southern parishes on Friday afternoon. I know that eastern parishes in Jamaica, we're talking about those parishes in the county of sorry, like Portland, St. Thomas, Kingston and St. Andrew. Central parishes in Jamaica and we're talking about those parishes in the county of Mils like St. An Manchester, Claron and St. Katherine.

[00:02:57]Well, western parishes and we're talking about those parishes in the country of Cornwall like Hor St. James, Trilani, West Milan, and St. Elizabeth.

[00:03:05]And what ended up happening? Oh yeah, we were also highlighting the fact that most of the activity would have been across some southern parishes. In southern parishes, we're talking about West Milan, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, Clar and St. Catherine, King of St. Andrew, and St. Thomas. And what ended up happening at around 3:35 p.m. the visible satellite image was posted not only here on our Twitter page with Jamaica, but it was also posted on our Instagram page with the Jamaica on our Tik Tok page with the Jamaica and on our Facebook page and weather Jamaica 876.

[00:03:35]So if you have one of those social media platforms, please ensure that you follow us there as we make posts throughout the day that you cannot afford to miss.

[00:03:44]So we can see the clouds are bring some amount of overcast skies if not isolated thundershores across mainly sections of some central and western parishes definitely across the southern parishes even more look at those sparkling yellow dust that would represent some of lightning strikes if not lightning flashes across Manchester and St. Elizabeth also had some cloud cover and rainfall across section of Hanover West Milan section of southern St James to southern Trilani section of St. An section of cler section of St. Katherine section of St. Andrew getting on some of the action as well and we can see what really took place and the visible satellite images of the island before we lost sunlight. You can make out that low to mid-level clouds being steered from east to west. Then those clouds started to build up and we had that daytime heating clouds being shared out towards the east by that upper level windshare if not the southeast.

[00:04:34]We see those clouds shearing off in both directions for sure. That was a huge blow of convection by the way. We can see that even better right here on the infred satellite imagery. Look at that huge burst of convection in the red right here across southern treani sections of Saint Elizabeth and Manchester. Cloud tops fanning out in all directions. Lots of thunderstorms.

[00:04:54]You see the sparkling white dots in there that we know represent some of lightning strikes if not lightning flashes. So we definitely got some decent thunderstorms especially across the southern side of the island today. But the live camera from CJ Jamaica's YouTube channel that was showing Mapen Clarendon, nothing in bad weather taking place at that time.

[00:05:13]More in the way of overcast skies than anything else. This was at 13. Is that 13? No. 5:13 p.m.

[00:05:23]And as you can see, definite overcast, people going about their business. And if you'd like to see more live streams like this, just visit C Jamaica on YouTube. We have these live streams all free to view for free. So subscribe today to this channel so that you don't miss out. And we also have some comments that came in from some of our followers about what the weather is like in their ear today. On our threads page, we have Sylvia Bando posting 2 hours ago.

[00:05:46]Overcast guys with thunder in the brownstone and era. We also have on our Facebook page Sylvia stating 2 hours ago a bit overcast with thunder in the brownstone and era. Verona Burke posting 3 hours ago sunny in Oarius. Giovan Gale posting yes in response to what Verona was saying on our Instagram page. We had some comments that came in. Giovan Panon posting Spanish Town Cloudy. Malan_1God posting Clarendon Thunder.

[00:06:15]We also have on our Instagram platform.

[00:06:19]Well, not our Instagram but our Tik Tok platform not poultry farm posting two hours ago. Rain in Lindstead. We have some comments that came in here on our YouTube community platform. Active 4810 posting 2 hours ago. Brother the heat come like it won't kill me off. Tell me about it. Also have John Goti 9783 posting one ago saying best enough clouds no rain. Lady garden 5798 posting one ago. Port more hot and dry but the wind kind of helping a bit.

[00:06:48]I guess that's it for all the comments for today. Let us reload the very latest still image here from the weather nerds website. The latest Cub and do radar imagery. the latest Guantanamo Bay US Navy radar imagery and the latest Cayman radar. We want to see exactly what's taking place across the island right now. All right, so the latest still image here from the governor's website is showing 0025 UTC, which is actually around 7:25 p.m. So this just came out 9 minutes ago considering that it is 7:34 p.m. right now. And as you can see, most of these clouds have dissipated. Nothing do have overcast skies or rainfall across the island at this time. Wish we had the latest Kibanop radar to confirm this, but it looks like it glitched out at around 300 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, which is actually 2:00 p.m. Jamaica time. At that time, we weren't getting on much of anything. The Guantanamo Bay US Navy radar image not really showing much of anything across eastern Cuba or northeastern Jamaica either, but we saw we had some rain bands across the southwestern peninsula of hated the blues into the greens. A light rainfall right there. The Cayman radar not showing much of anything in terms of rainfall across central Cuba, western Jamaica, the Cayman Islands. Definitely fair conditions for the most part. And I guess that should be the order of the evening into the night. Taking a look at what's happening here. The live camera from C Jamaica's YouTube channel showing ultra race in Saintan and as you can see fair conditions right now. Nothing bad weather taking place. People walking about going about their business. People in their vehicles going about their business. That should be the order of the evening into the night. Taking a look at the temperatures right now, we can see that we have 27°C in Mont Bay, 26° C in Kingston, and by about 4:00 a.m. on Saturday, temperature should have down to about 24°C in Mont Bay, 23°C in Kingston. Taking a look at the temperature forecast for tomorrow. This map from the GFS is valid for 18Z on Saturday, which is actually 1:00 p.m. on Saturday. And we can see Jamaica right here embedded in some oranges. The oranges represents up to 2 to 3° C above normal. And I know you've been feeling the heat. And more of that is coming even worse on Saturday.

[00:08:58]Almost like a heat wave in a sense.

[00:09:02]3°C above normal temperatures definitely possible. And the normal temperatures for the month of May are around 88.9° F.

[00:09:11]When that's converted to degrees that we use here in Jamaica, that's around 31.61°C.

[00:09:16]So given that we could be receiving up to 30°C above normal temperatures for Saturday, it should be anywhere from 31.61 to 34.61°C at most for Jamaica's temperature on Saturday. And we have some tips to beat the heat as usual. It stays here. Seek shade outside. Eat fresh eating cold foods such as salads and fruits. Rest.

[00:09:36]Make sure you get enough sleep and rest if you're feeling tired. So take a cool shower or bath to help you cool down.

[00:09:41]And I cannot stress enough the importance of keeping hydrated throughout the day. Drink lots of water.

[00:09:46]You may feel not thirsty and put away those sugary drinks and drink water instead.

[00:09:51]Taking a look at the dry air and humidity map. We know that the dry is represented by the light shades of browns, the dark shades of browns. The humid air, the humid air is represented by the whites into the greens. We see the humid air across the Gulf into Florida and the east coast of the US.

[00:10:07]But look at where the dry area is across Jamaica tomorrow. This is 18 Saturday, 1 p.m. dark browns. Do we also see some of that extending into Cuba Hispanola?

[00:10:17]Definitely dry dry conditions. So it's definitely going to be very difficult for us to get daytime and heating rainfall. Not necessarily 100% no rainfall, but definitely it's going to be one of the driest days so far.

[00:10:34]That's expected. I mean, El Nino is on its way. Even although it's May and it's one of our wetest month, boy, it doesn't look promising at all this May. In terms of the Sahar and dust forecast for the next three days, we're heading into May 2, May 3, and May 4. And as you can see, no Saharan dust to worry about. We know that the Saharan dust is represented by the green dealers, oranges, and pinks.

[00:10:54]And yes, although we have some slight greens pushing through the main region over the next 3 days. Clearly, the more it pushes towards the west, the more it dwindles down to nothing. And that's what we like to see because you know that the Sahara dust can definitely cause hazy skies, not to mention trigger some amount of respiratory illnesses in some persons. So we're indeed grateful that this is the forecast for the saras for the next 3 days.

[00:11:15]Taking a look at the wave forecast for tomorrow across the Caribbean. We're seeing a mixture of light shades of blues to dark shades of blues into purple. Pink represents anywhere from 0.5 m wide all the maybe two maybe up to 2.5 m wave height and that's because of the winds that are expected more an easterly if not southeasterly flow from the eastern to northwestern Caribbean averaging anywhere from 10 up to 20 knots maybe even up to 25 knots right here off the coast of Venezuela and the Colombia in the ABC islands as well and if we zoom on Jamaica's wave forecast for tomorrow to the north of Portland 1.2 2 m away fight expected to the north of Saint and 1 m wide to the north of Hanover. 0.7 of a me fight expected to the south of Westland. 1.2 m wide to the south of Cler. 1 m away fight to the south of St. Thomas right here. 1.5 m wide and that's because of the winds.

[00:12:05]Look at the winds looking like they're coming in from the east if not the eastsoutheast.

[00:12:11]And we see right here to the north of St. Ans coming in from the east tomorrow to the south of St. Thomas 15 kn winds coming in from the east to the south of St. Elizabeth 18 knot winds coming in from the east. Look at this now to the south of West Mang. Southeasterly winds averaging 13 knots. And look at where we have the air piling up across section of some northern and western parishes. So that is where we could have some of these lowle clouds becoming mid-le rain clouds. If not upper level cumulus clouds, northern and western parishes and if we actually get the upper level winds to sheer cloud tops off towards any direction, it's going to be shared off towards the east. definitely favoring more of the overcast guys across northern Jamaica. And if we take a look at the actual rainfall forecast maps, this from the Euro and this from the GFS, they're both valid for 7 a.m.

[00:12:57]Eastern Standard Time is actually 6 a.m.

[00:12:59]Jamaica time. So, could we be in for some early morning rainfall across these spots that are shaded in the blues for eastern Jamaica, Eastern Poland, Eastern St. Thomas? We see that both the Euro and the JFS modes are showing this. Then by afternoon, look at this. This is 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on the Euro.

[00:13:15]3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on the GFS.

[00:13:18]We know when calculated that's representing 2 pm Jamaica time. And where do we see the rainfall? Across some northern and western parishes. So maybe second of St. An into Trillan, St. James into Hanover, maybe sections of West Milan getting in on some of the action. And we see that the Euro model is showing something similar even though the Euro is trying to incorporate portions of St. Mary another in St. Katherine, Western Portland into it. We didn't see that on the GFS. We'll see it actually plays out over the next 24 hours. And even the total accumulated precipitation forecast maps, they're both showing that there should be some amount of rainfall affecting the island within next 24 hours. The Euro model going up to at least what 0.3 of an inch of rainfall, especially in the Poland area. The GFS model going up to at least 0.18 of an inch of rainfall, especially in the Kingston 800 area. We'll see it actually plays out. And whatever happens, we just have to take it because we're in the month of May now. And in Poland, we usually receive 140 mm of rainfall this month. That's about the same as 5.5 in of rainfall. While in St. Andrew, we usually receive 107 mm of rainfall this month. That's about the same as 4.2 in of rainfall. And if you'd like to find out that your specific parish usually receives in terms of rainfall for the month of May, for the entire year, you can visit nomad.com and that website will show you that information.

[00:14:33]All right. So, we're going to be looking at what the next 7 days have in store for us according to the latest Euro and GFS supercomput maroons that came out today. So, keep your eyes focused on the time stamp right here at the top as we go out to the next 168 hours since the next 7 days. Keep your eyes focused on Jamaica right here as we look for all of this that we see on the key on the right. That's the reds, the oranges, yellows, and the greens represent millimeters of rainfall. So, let's going to be taking place. First of all, we need to highlight the line of showers associated with a frontal system that extends off the east coast of the US down into the Gulf. Very interesting.

[00:15:10]And we see that it's not only your model that's showing this. GFS is showing something similar, but we're going to 12Z on Saturday. 12Z. It's actually 7:00 a.m. Well, not Saturday, Sunday. Because we already know what's expected on Saturday.

[00:15:24]The Euro model showing some slight greens across the far eastern end of the island. Then the afternoon hours, we're seeing that green shade across eastern, central, western Jamaica. What does the GFS show? Sunday morning, rainfall across the east, just like the Euro.

[00:15:38]Sunday afternoon, rainfall across eastern, central, and western parishes.

[00:15:41]Very interesting. Just like the Euro.

[00:15:44]What do we see on Monday morning? On Monday morning, maybe some isolated shows across the far east. Then on Monday afternoon, maybe some rainfall across some central and western parishes. What do we see on the GFS?

[00:15:55]Monday morning, maybe some rainfall out west. Monday afternoon, maybe some rainfall across eastern, central, western parachute.

[00:16:02]What do we see on Tuesday morning on the Euro on Tuesday morning? We are seeing some rainfall to the south and east of us. Then on Tuesday afternoon, we seeing rainfall across eastern, central, western parishes. What does the GFS show? Tuesday morning, nothing. Tuesday afternoon, nothing at all. Very interesting. So, we have some contrast.

[00:16:22]Euro showing rainfall on Tuesday. GFS not showing any rainfall on Tuesday.

[00:16:26]We'll see how that plays out. What do we see on Wednesday morning on the Euro?

[00:16:31]We're seeing rainfall across some southern, eastern, and northern parishes. Then on Wednesday afternoon, we're seeing rainfall across eastern, central, and western parishes. What does the GFS show Wednesday morning? Nothing.

[00:16:42]Wednesday afternoon, rainfall across some central, western parishes. What do we see on Thursday morning?

[00:16:49]On Thursday morning, we're not seeing much of anything on the euro. Thursday afternoon, maybe some isolated showers across some western and northern areas.

[00:16:57]What does the GFS show for Thursday morning? Thursday morning, nothing.

[00:17:01]Thursday afternoon, nothing. Again, look at that. Dry, dry, dry is what the GFS is predicting. And we're going to be stopping it right here at the end of 168 hours. So, this is valid for 12 Z on Friday, May 8. This is 7:00 a.m. on Friday. Nothing expected on the Euro for Jamaica.

[00:17:19]And then the GFS also showing nothing.

[00:17:22]Look at that whites more than anything else. Definitely a drier pattern for sure. And the total accumulated precipitation forecast maps confirm this. I mean look at where the most rainfall is expected over the next 7 days. Clearly the Bahamas into Cuba, Florida, second of the Yucatan into Guatemala. Um biz into El Salvador, Nicaraba into Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela and French.

[00:17:47]That is where the euro and the GFS has the most rainfall over the next 7 days.

[00:17:53]You know, all of these dark reds into the purples and the pinks represents anywhere from 2 to 5 in of rainfall, especially across section of Central America into northern and South America.

[00:18:00]So, there could be somewhat of isolated flash flooding taking place in these spots.

[00:18:04]And across the Caribbean, definitely less rainfall, more oranges into yellows into greens. We see that the Euro is definitely less robust than the GFS. GFS definitely more robust with the Caribbean rainfall over the next 7 days.

[00:18:18]We'll say it actually plays out over the next 7 days. Definitely less than an inch of rainfall expected. Definitely a little bit of rainfall for sure. And if we zoom in on Jamaica's rainfall totals for the next 7 days, both maps right here from the Euro and the GFS are showing all the rainfall that's expected from now up until Friday, May 8th. And we see on the Euro the rainfall extending from the eastern end to the western end. And the blues greens we see a 27 mm right here. um on the St. Anna, St. Catherine, St. Andrew border, the GFS not going all the way up there, but we're seeing the blues into the greens maybe up to at least 15 20 mm. We'll see it actually plays out over the next 10 days. However, I'll definitely be here to keep you posted what occurs if God spares life. All right, so what's happening across the rest of the basin?

[00:19:03]Not really much frontal system of the southern US coast. That's what's going to be pushing southeastward off the east coast of the down into the Gulf tomorrow. We're also seeing some moisture pushing from east to west.

[00:19:14]Moisture pushing from southwest to northeast in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Those serious clouds as well. Lot of thunderstorms affecting portions of Costa Rica into Panama, Colombia into Venezuela. Very interesting.

[00:19:28]And if we take a look at the Doer images, what's happening near Puerto Rico? Be some rainfall across western Puerto Rico, especially northwestern Puerto Rico. Some moderate to heavy rainfall in the dark greens and the yellows. And if we load these images from earlier today, we saw we had some rainfall across central um Puerto Rico. We see that rainfall in the greens, yellows, orange is red. Some moderate to heavy rainfall for sure.

[00:19:55]If we take a look at the Barbados radar, we're seeing some light to moderate rainfall pushing from east to west by seeing some rainfall right here across sections of northern St. Vincent as we speak. Some rainfall pushing towards the Grenadine. some rainfall right here to the far east of St. Lucia Martineique.

[00:20:11]We'll see all of this plays out. And if we take a look at the weather of DLER images, not really seeing much of anything elsewhere. Definitely see that rainfall though across Colombia, northwestern Venezil right there. And if we take a look at where the rainfall is expected within the next 24 hours. I mean, this is one of the driest maps I've ever seen for a 24-hour um total forecast.

[00:20:34]the Florida into the Bahamas into Cuba area the lesser anti so dry whites into grays nothing at all well maybe some isolated shows for section of Jamaica Hispanola Puerto Rico section of Yucatan section of Katimala into El Salvador and Honduras still getting some ice across Nicaragua but definitely more rainfall at least an inch or less for section of Costa Rica to Panama Colombia to northwestern and southern Venezuela and section of Ghana and French Ghana we clearly see that both and the JFS mos are in agreement with this forecast. I know that when they're in agreement like this, the chances are higher for it to actually take place. All right, so what's happening here on the Western Pacific side of things? Nothing. Indian Ocean side of things, nothing. We'll see how all of this plays out over the next several weeks. Whatever happens, I'll definitely be here to keep you posted with that occurs. All right, so that's it for today. Thanks for watching.