WILL CRYPTO FALL LOWER THIS WEEK?🚨 (Crypto Market Update)

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:03]Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome back to of the day market updates. We're back again. I am making these a little bit too late. I would love to make these more around the NYO.

[00:00:14]Uh that's also when we see most action, right? I mean, now we've had a lot of volatility, as you can see, um in the last 2-3 hours, uh especially also around the NYO, a lot of volume.

[00:00:24]And then now I'm making a video on and most of the interesting things have already happened. So, that's that's not too great.

[00:00:30]Um but we'll do a bit of a recap of what I said this morning in my videos. We'll do a general scan through the markets, right? For for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, certain altcoins, and obviously the fundamentals, right? I mean, the fundamentals at this point of time are very interesting. Uh we have the Federal Reserve interest rates coming up tonight. It's already 100% certain that the interest rate is going to stay the same.

[00:00:53]So, that is very much not the part that you should be interested in. It's just going to be the same. However, the press conference is going to be interesting, and I'll be live streaming that. That's always tons of fun. Uh so, hopefully I'll see you there. But for now, let's get right into the market. So, there's a couple of fundamental things I wanted to talk about.

[00:01:09]Uh generally, what I said this morning has been correct.

[00:01:12]I said it was very unlikely that with the fundamentals that we had this morning that we were going to see a sustained move into the upside. One more move into the upside was a possibility because the funding rates were quite negative, right? So, that means that it's generally over shorted.

[00:01:26]Um so, then you get into territory where where you can see a short squeeze. And I think ultimately that's what we saw. We got a move right here into the 7-day rolling view app, followed by a move down below the previous week previous week view app right here. So, this is just technically incredibly bearish on the lower time frames for Bitcoin.

[00:01:43]That means that it's very bearish for the entire market. As you can see, the entire markets right now are basically moving as one being.

[00:01:50]Um so, generally quite bearish. And if you look at the 4-hour time frame for for Bitcoin right here, it it looks it looks cleaner, but it doesn't look bullish all of a sudden. I mean, you can just see that we had that breakdown right here below the 7-day view app. And at the moment, we just had some mean reversion.

[00:02:05]And [snorts] uh we we have accepted the the the breakdown below the 7-day rolling view app. But more on that a little bit later.

[00:02:11]I think the fundamentals are more interesting because the fundamentals at the moment are not super bad, right? I mean, the volatility index is super low.

[00:02:18]So, that's great. That means that the market doesn't really expect a lot of volatility, which usually is good. But at the same point of time, oil prices are absolutely rallying again today.

[00:02:30]And [snorts] uh and the S&P 500 is not super bearish, either. Right? You would expect that to be bearish because of oil prices.

[00:02:37]Um but oil prices really affect the volatility index, and then the volatility index affects equities, or at least that's how you can see it. Um it actually happens simultaneously, but still.

[00:02:49]So, as long as the volatility index is relatively low, that's fine.

[00:02:52]But then you'd say, "Okay, the fundamentals are pretty good. Then why is crypto that bearish?" I mean, we don't know, but we do know that the fundamentals for crypto at the moment are quite bearish.

[00:03:02]Right? I mean, if you look at the Coinbase Bitcoin um price, you can see a a major >> [snorts] >> discount price here. You can also see while the price has fallen that the funding rates right now are almost positive, right? So, that means that the price at the moment is is also not over shorted.

[00:03:18]We had a couple of shorts got getting out of their uh positions right here.

[00:03:22]You can see open interest down, CVD up.

[00:03:24]Um but now, I mean, the crypto market at the moment short term are are just bearish. On the higher time frames, they're still great, right? If you look at Bitcoin right here, um it's still good, right? As long as we're holding 73,000, 72,000, we're fine. But it does look most likely that Bitcoin, and with it that's going to drag all the altcoins together with it, um um it's going to push down into that level at 74,500, then 73,000, and then potentially, you know, spiking down lower into these gaps right here between 72 and 71.

[00:03:57]And there are some fundamentals right now in the wider markets as well that support that. Okay, there's two major things that we need to know about, or that you need to know about.

[00:04:08]And that's first of all, the FOMC meeting, right? So, that's tonight.

[00:04:11]That's usually a de-risking event. Like I said, the interest rate itself is already certain, but the press conference, interesting things can be said.

[00:04:20]And that's tonight, right? So, so we can reasonably expect bearish pressure at least going into that. Sometimes, the Federal Reserve press conference and the interest rate decision itself has been a turning point, right? So, that when the first half of the week is bearish going into the FOMC week, then the second half is bullish.

[00:04:42]Um but given the Coinbase Bitcoin discount right here, given the structure for Bitcoin, I would not bet on that.

[00:04:48]And then outside of that, tonight we also have major earnings coming out, right? So, we have Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, all delivering their earnings. And very often, especially with the rally that we have seen in the markets in the past couple of weeks, that's a bit of a sell the news effect. And we're talking about uh what What are we talking about? Almost 10 trillion dollars in market cap.

[00:05:10]That [snorts] is going to make equities move. And equities in turn are going to make Bitcoin move, right? So, if we can reasonably expect a sell the news effect from that, if we have a de-risking event tonight, fundamentally, there's also reasons to be slightly bearish right here. Right?

[00:05:26]So, on the higher time frames, on the market, Bitcoin, I'm still bullish.

[00:05:30]On the lower time [snorts] frames, I think it's most likely we're going to push down lower. I I think a lot would have to happen for us to break out again and rally. I mean, the key level that I'm looking at right now personally is 77,200. If Bitcoin for some reason, whatever, right? Peace in the Middle East. If Bitcoin is able to break above that, then we can rally, right? Like I said, my higher time frame thoughts are actually bullish. So, I'm always open for another move into the upside.

[00:05:55]It's just at the moment not most likely.

[00:05:57]Um and that goes for Ethereum and XRP as well. I mean, if you look at Ethereum, um it's it's not looking super bad, but it does need to hold 2,300. And I'm not certain if it's going to be able to do that. Um most likely not if Bitcoin's going to push down. And XRP has just um spiked up into the previous monthly view app at 1.41 and has rejected there, which is acceptance below the previous range, which is bearish. And we can reasonably expect that to push down lower as well. But we're talking about the general market. I mean, like I said, at the moment, a lot of coins are just following Bitcoin.

[00:06:28]Um first of all, boring, but second of all, that also means that it's not very interesting to trade those.

[00:06:33]Um what we saw earlier today, though, is is some interesting price action, especially from Dogecoin.

[00:06:40]Dogecoin has been incredibly strong. Um I don't think it's strong enough to rally if the markets are relatively bearish, right? So, it's it's it's not good enough, but it can potentially turn into something good. Like I said, if the market for some reason turns around, then Dogecoin can as well.

[00:06:57]Um so, so Dogecoin definitely, and potentially extending onto meme coins, could be interesting, but we have some some, you know, we have something to make up. I mean, Pepe, for example, uh broke above this level right here at 0.4 cents. If we want Pepe to at least have a chance to rally again, we at least need to reclaim that. Same thing with Dogecoin, right? I mean, Dogecoin broke above the previous quarter view app right here. We at least need to break above that. And at the moment, I'm not certain if I think that's most likely. Um and outside of that, I mean, is is there anything interesting?

[00:07:30]No, I'd say no. I'd say no.

[00:07:33]Um There there's other interesting coins, but we'll we'll get to we'll get back to that a little bit later once it has turned into something a little bit more concrete. But that's what I think you need to know about the markets for for now. So, thank you for watching, everybody. Take care, and bye.