Climatologist eyes Memorial Day as critical turning point for moisture

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]I'm Alex Macvica, back with you on the Rural Radio Network. Now joined by Nebraska Extension's Eric Hunt. And Eric, that sun just keeps coming up and up and up a little bit earlier. It is that time of year. Thanks as always for joining us. Just talk about what we might see this week. Looks like some warm days ahead.

[00:00:16]Some warm days ahead, yeah. Upper level originally be pretty prominent across the western US here the first couple days of the week, and then that will be shifting toward the east. So, we're going to be pretty warm as a result of that. Today will be quite warm statewide. I think everybody should at least 80. Probably getting at least close to 90° across portions of western north central Nebraska. So, I wouldn't be too surprised to see some areas from Scotts Bluff up toward Valentine getting to that 90-92° mark this afternoon.

[00:00:44]Should be a little bit cooler tomorrow.

[00:00:46]We do have a cold front coming through.

[00:00:48]Unfortunately, not really bringing any moisture. I Maybe parts of eastern Nebraska might see a quick stray shower tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, looking pretty dry conditions. Cooling off just a little bit tomorrow into Wednesday before things heat back up on Thursday.

[00:01:02]I think we should be back in the 80s everywhere on Thursday. And I would imagine most of states probably going to be at least close to 80 by Wednesday afternoon. But I think the temperatures just in terms of anomalies will be probably at their most exceptional in the eastern half of the state on Friday.

[00:01:19]I think we're looking at at least the mid-upper 80s. And [snorts] depending on what transpires in terms of sensible weather, we may be getting into the mid-90s across portions of south central rural and eastern during the day on Friday. A lot of a lot of that will depend on if we do get some thunderstorms overnight on Thursday and Friday. If that happens, I think that would probably squash our chances of getting in the 90s over here on this side of the state. But certainly looks to be a possibility.

[00:01:46]Speaking of those rain chances, they're going to be very slim until late this week everywhere. They will pick up in the eastern side of state toward the end of the week. And I think everybody could have chances of moisture as we head into next week and early portion of next week and it does look to cool off perhaps substantially as we head into early portion of next week. So particularly Sandhills Panhandle you may be stick sticking with highs only in the 50s low 60s by this time next week. So there is some much cooler weather coming. I do think we have some better chance of moisture as we head into the end of this next weekend and early next week and it does look like the faucet should stay at least on more frequently as we head toward Memorial Day. The chances of rain are going to be there but that's good because we have not had much moisture in the state this month. There are pockets that did fairly well early last week across southwestern Nebraska but by and large most places state of at less than a quarter of an inch and large sections of eastern Nebraska have not had a single drop of rain this month. So we need to get that fixed here pretty soon pretty soon or we're going to see uh that drought get worse. Okay. I'm looking at a drought monitor map right now for the data that was available released on Thursday.

[00:02:58]Uh the worst category D4 exceptional drought has doubled in the state. What do you see as far as degradation or perhaps improvement here in the next 7 to 10 days with these small moisture chances that you've talked about?

[00:03:12]I I don't necessarily think we'll see any improvement this week other than there's a slight possibility that a few places in the Panhandle might get bumped up a little bit. Like I said see some of the indicators look like but by and large I don't think we're looking at any improvement coming up this week. Uh and realistically I think we probably will see a little bit of degradation particularly across portions of central and eastern Nebraska where we just really haven't had much moisture here in the last couple of weeks. You know now we are now entering into our climatologically wettest time of year. So us not getting any moisture at all for a 10 to 14 day period is really actually starting to accumulate the deficits. Uh so I mean that will mean that the drought monitor can change a little bit more quickly as we head into uh May certainly once we get deeper in the summer we can often will see changes on that a little bit more rapidly than we do during the winter even though this last winter we saw some you know pretty remarkable changes for that period of time.

[00:04:08]Mhm. But yeah, maybe if we start actually getting some decent precipitation over the weekend and next week then maybe we'll start seeing things not degrade as quickly maybe we can start seeing some improvements.

[00:04:20]I would just say though that the best chance of getting really significant moisture though do appear to be mostly along and east of highway 281. So I mean the area of the state where we really have the worst conditions is generally there in west.

[00:04:32]I think if you take you know basically if you looked at highway 183 went anywhere west of there pretty much every county has at least some portion in extreme drought or worse the majority counties are either fully in D3 or worse or have at least half of them at the county in D3 or worse and I'm just I'm not necessarily seeing a signal that we're going to see significant improvement in that area.

[00:04:55]I think the best we can hope for between now and the first part of June is that as we get toward next week and through Memorial Day that we at least are getting enough moisture where things are not getting worse. Mhm. Yeah, absolutely.

[00:05:07]You take this into consideration of course we've got planting season going on but people also holding out going to pasture. I mean these are real decisions that people are having to make and like you said it's usually a wetter time of year. So outlook into the rest of the spring and summer Eric as you see it right now what what's the outlook?

[00:05:26]I so we are transitioning to El Nino.

[00:05:30]I I really do think that as we head into June and the summer that we will start seeing better chances for more consistent moisture getting into this you know through the entire state and the entire region.

[00:05:42]The real problem though is that I I don't necessarily see a signal that just says that we're just going to get really, really, really good moisture all summer long. I I think basically what it would say is that we're going to have at least periods of time where we do get some moisture in.

[00:05:58]It it also tends to be a little bit more scattered, which is not particularly unusual. I would just say in this part of the country in the summer, but if you look at like the historic correlations, I mean, what you'll kind of see is a little bit more blotchy, which basically means that you probably will see some places will have pretty good moisture, and then you go 40 mi in any direction, it may be somewhat worse. So, I mean, that's All I have to say is that I I think the moisture is going to be there for a lot of us this summer, but certainly not all of us. And we really don't have a we don't have much longer in a lot of western portions of the state, at least on the cool season grasses, to get some moisture before things really uh turn the point where they're not recoverable this year. I think if you look at the the pasture range conditions, that was in the national report last week, certainly 4% of the state's pastures are good to excellent condition, and uh I mean, I'm not sure I've ever seen a number quite that low this time of year. I mean, that that's the type of number you see like in September, October after you've had a major drought. So, I mean, the fact that we're that poor at this portion of the year leads me to think that we don't have much longer in the western half of state, and you know, we'll see what this week turns out like, but if if if we don't get that moisture by Memorial Day, I there are a lot of people are going to make some very, very tough decisions.

[00:07:19]Yeah, absolutely. Okay, Eric, as we round out our conversation, what else is important to mention that we have not touched on? I think we're done with freezes for the year for pretty much everybody, but maybe the western panhandles. I mean, if you if you're if your elevation's over 4,000 ft, I mean, you're still probably going to have at least chances of getting a light freeze through the first portion of June, but I would say the the prime corn soy portion of the state, I think we're done with anything that resembles sub-freezing temperatures for the remainder of the at least until probably like you know, about October.

[00:07:54]>> [laughter] >> Absolutely. Okay, Eric, thank you so much. Nebraska Extension's Eric Hunt joining us as he does every Monday here on the Rural Radio Network.