Tropical update Sunday 7 p.m. Tropical Storm Bertha likely to form by Monday

[00:00:02]Good Sunday evening. I'm meteorologist Alexa Trisher with WWL Louisiana. Thank you so much for joining for the 7 o'clock update on tropical depression 2.

[00:00:11]So, we're going to be updating you every 3 hours because that's when the National Hurricane Center releases their updates.

[00:00:17]Right now, this is the intermediate update. It doesn't have all of the latest information when it comes to the cone. that will come out at 1000 p.m.

[00:00:25]So, we get a new cone every 6 hours, but we get a new update every 3 hours. And I will say not a lot has changed since the last 4:00 update. That was the complete advisory. That's where we got the new cone at 400 p.m. today. Now, we have the 700 p.m. update. Not a new cone, but with the new cone, we'll come out at 10:00. And then we'll get the new cone again 6 hours later, past 6 hours after 10:00 tonight, Central time. So, just want to give you a quick uh update on what's going on with tropical depression, too. As we head into your Sunday evening. So, winds still at 30 mph. Those are the sustained winds. It has really been stationary over the last few hours. It's just kind of parked out in the eastern Gulf. And the storms associated with tropical depression, too, are still pretty spread out away from the center. We have that well- definfined center, so we've got some better tracking on it, but there's still some uncertainty in the forecast. Of course, basically, two scenarios could play out, and we'll show you those two scenarios as we go throughout this update. So, first, let's get into the cone. If you hadn't seen it earlier, this is the latest cone on what tropical depression 2 is looking like will happen with it. So, at this point, it's looking like TD2 will strengthen to tropical storm Bertha by Monday as it moves to the northnorwest, just offshore of the Florida panhandle. And then it will eventually start to turn more westerly as it makes either a close approach to our coastline in Louisiana. It could it could actually move along the coastline.

[00:01:57]It could move offshore of the Louisiana coast. There's still some uncertainty as to exactly where the center of the storm will go. Of course, we're still a few days away, but it's looking like by Wednesday, we could have tropical storm Bertha right along our Louisiana coastline. And then it's expected to continue to move westward across the west of Louisiana or the across the rest of Louisiana and then into Texas by later in the week. So, we are expecting more of a westerly jog. It could be strengthening though as we get into the midweek time frame and we're going to see how strong it can get. It just depends on how far south the storm sits.

[00:02:34]If it fits if it sits farther to the south, it will be a stronger storm. If it's a little bit farther to the north, it will be a weaker storm as it interacts with land. Those are basically the two scenarios that could potentially play out. We don't know exactly how it's going to go just yet, but we're getting better information in. You want to make sure you're staying tuned to the latest updates every few hours when they do come in just so you know exactly what to prepare for. I really don't think this is going to be a showstopper of a storm just the way that the models are projecting it, the way that it looks to be set up. It's looking like a lot of the impacts are going to be happening more to the south offshore. But you still want to, you know, prepare the same way. Stay tuned to the updates because things can certainly change. The Gulf waters are very hot. We know when a storm is in the Gulf, we want to watch it. We know we need to watch it. We need to stay informed as to what is going to happen with it. So, this that's my best advice is just to keep checking back in as we get the latest info on this satellite and radar. You can see that swirl in the eastern Gulf, the storms uh across the eastern half of the Gulf over the last day. There have been some periodic heavy downpours across parts of Florida, which is good, much needed rain for them. They're dealing with some pretty bad drought conditions in Florida. So, I'm sure they're happy to see a little bit of rain coming and going. And we're going to continue to see some periodic heavy rain across parts of the Gulf Coast this week thanks to what will become Bertha. So, we'll show you the spaghetti models getting a a better consensus again that this is going to be more more moving to the northnorwest to the next two days and then eventually moving completely off to the west going into the mid to late week. really hugging the Gulf Coast states going into late in the week as it heads towards Texas. Tropical storm watches still in effect for the Florida panhandle from Pensacola all the way to the Big Bend. So, there will be some tropical storm conditions expected there going into later tomorrow. Some minor coastal flooding, storm surge of 1 to three feet is possible across the Florida panhandle, especially across the Big Bend. They're going to be seeing some periodic heavy rain continuing and some stronger winds, rough marine conditions, things like that going into early in the week as this makes this northwesterly turn going into about Monday and Tuesday. And then once we get to about late Tuesday, Wednesday, that's when it makes that westerly jog and basically goes right along the Louisiana coastline as it looks right now. Again, still things can change, but just want to put it out there. we could be dealing with a tropical storm right in our neighborhood uh when it comes to, you know, our coastal spots on Wednesday.

[00:05:13]The only good thing is there's going to be some wind shear working on this system which will help to keep it slightly weaker. Also, it will help to uh push the worst of the impacts, the worst of the rain farther to the south.

[00:05:26]So, it looks like the brunt of the heavy rain should be pushed farther to the south in the open Gulf waters as the windshare does act on it. So, the windshare is a good thing we have going on right now, helping to keep it slightly weaker, though the windshare may subside a little bit going into the new week. So, if there's going to be some less uh lower wind shear, it could could take advantage of that and strengthen a bit during the midweek time frame. So, it's possible we could get a strong tropical storm in the next couple of days as that shear weakens. Another thing that's happening right now, we have some dry air that's invading tropical depression, too, helping to keep it on the weaker side right now, but I think some of that dry air will begin to erode as well in the coming days. That's why strengthening is likely. We've been talking about how some of the models are maybe indicating it could potentially become a a low-end Cat 1 hurricane. It's possible. It really just depends on how this system tracks in the coming days. If it stays farther to the south over the warm Gulf waters, 80 plus almost 90 degree waters, we will likely have a strong tropical storm, maybe close to a hurricane status by midweek. If it stays further to the north and it interacts with land more, we will have a weaker system. Those are the two scenarios that we're really watching and trying to figure out. How will that happen? But at this point, we are expecting a tropical storm to hug right along the Gulf Coast this entire week, moving completely to the west by late week towards Texas. This is early Wednesday. You can kind of see that classic swirl here. and a lot of the impacts felt in the middle of the Gulf, which is something you definitely like to see. You want to see that. So hopefully we'll keep that forecast the way that it is. If this does jog a little bit farther to the north, those impacts though could be spreading spreading a little bit farther to the north. So time will tell. We're going to get better information with these model updates in the coming hours. So make sure you just staying tuned to the latest. Definitely not, you know, a cause for concern. I would not freak out about this storm. We've been through things like this before. I don't think this is going to be a showstopper by any means, but we're going to keep watching it. One thing we've been talking about uh is the steering currents. So, basically, the reason why it will be moving to the west is because this area of high pressure off to the west of us will be taking control and pushing it in that westerly direction. Also, all the moisture associated with this is going to be spreading out across the Gulf South into the deep south going into the next week. And when you have all that tropical moisture just lingering, you can get some heavy soaking downpours that could lead to some flooding concerns across the deep south and Gulf Coast this week. So, we'll be watching for that. I think some of us will be dealing with some heavy rain this week.

[00:08:18]um the heaviest of the rain, you know, it's difficult to say exactly where it will set up, but I think so far coastal areas, coastal Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, uh the really right along the coastline will probably see the heaviest amounts of rain this week. I think the farther inland you go, we're going to have lower impacts. Again, still things can change. I know people are probably tired of hearing that things can change, but it's the truth.

[00:08:43]At at this point, we're not 100% locked in on the forecast, but we're paying attention to it. We're getting kind of prepared in our minds what's coming, but I don't think this is a cause for a for a freakout at this point. We we'll we'll watch it. We'll let you know. So, the rest of tonight, we'll show you exactly what's going on at home across southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi. Not a whole lot. Uh there are a few storms off to our east right now, but I think we're going to be mostly dry tonight. It's just very hot and humid. And then tomorrow, another hot and muggy day.

[00:09:10]Tomorrow's going to be pretty quiet. Not much happening for us tomorrow. could see a couple isolated showers and storms tomorrow in the afternoon and early evening as some of that tropical moisture gets a little bit closer to us.

[00:09:21]So, a couple isolated passing storms are possible tomorrow. Then we get into Tuesday. I think the winds start to pick up across our area. Gets breezy, stronger winds along the coast.

[00:09:31]Certainly, you could feel that, you know, it's a little bit unsettled outside. I think we'll have a few passing showers and storms on Tuesday.

[00:09:38]Hit or miss. Not a guarantee that you'll even see rain on Tuesday. I think Wednesday is the day that we'll probably see the most impacts from this. And I really think it's going to be a coastal impact that we're going to be watching for. But I think Wednesday, that's when we'll probably have more numerous passing showers and storms through the entire area. Couple tropical downpours, maybe some heavy rain at times, especially along the coast. So, I'm thinking late Tuesday, but Wednesday especially, that's when we'll have our biggest impacts here. And the impacts really are going to be pretty minor. All things considered, I don't think it's going to be a big deal really for for us across um southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi. Now, like I've been saying, a lot of the impacts are going to be pushed to the south, sheared to the south. The heaviest of the rain, the worst of the rain looks to be happening in the middle of the open Gulf, which is great. But we'll have a few inches of rain certainly possible across the Florida panhandle and even into coastal Alabama, coastal Mississippi, and then for us. So, here's the Louisiana coastline. We could see a couple inches of rain right along the coast. Anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain possible over the course of a few days this week. So over the course of like 2 days, 2 to 3 days, I think we'll see maybe 2 to 4 inches of rain. Nothing we haven't seen before, but that could cause some localized flooding concerns. I think Southshore more so along the coastline on uh the midweek time frame, Tuesday, Wednesday especially, but even into Thursday, Friday, we may have a few lingering showers and storms that could contribute to these rain totals north of the lake and in the metro area maybe anywhere from 1 to two inches of rain possible. River parishes could get maybe two to three inches of rain, a little bit more possible uh for the river parishes down the bayou and along the coast. So 2 to 4 inches of rain, that's what we're calling for right now, possible. Not a guarantee for everybody and a little bit less expected on the Northshore and into southwestern Mississippi, maybe one to two inches. We will watch, we will wait, we will see.

[00:11:36]Wednesday, I think that's when our highest chance for flooding is going to be. It's a slight risk of excessive rainfall for us on Wednesday. Nothing off the charts, but um Monday and uh Tuesday, we have a lower risk of street flooding. It's the marginal risk for us on Monday and Tuesday, but it goes up on Wednesday. One more level to the slight risk. So, a little bit higher of a risk for flooding on for us on Wednesday. So, Wednesday is going to be the day we're really watching for the impacts across the area. Minor impacts for sure, but we'll show you the winds because it is possible this storm could strengthen up to maybe a cat one status. It's not off the table. It's not out of the question as we get into the midweek time frame if it spends more time over the open waters. We'll see about that. It could be just a strong tropical storm. So, we'll have some windy conditions along the eastern and central Gulf Coast early to midweek. We'll have stronger wind gusts along our coastal areas. Gusts probably up to 40 to 50 m hour. Stronger winds offshore in the Gulf itself. I think inland we could have gusts around 20 to 30 miles hour. So, yeah, it's going to be windy, I think, at times late Tuesday, windy on Wednesday. So, we'll be watching for some stronger gusty winds coming and going throughout the day Wednesday especially. But here's kind of a recap of what to expect with tropical depression, too. It's likely going to strengthen a tropical storm b tropical storm Bertha by tomorrow. We'll probably have a few more passing showers and storms midweek, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday. It's going to be windy like I was just saying, and there could be some heavy rain in a few spots.

[00:13:11]Not a problem everywhere, not a problem for everyone. It's going to be localized heavy rain and it's like we're going to have these storms coming and going. So, it's not going to be an all day event.

[00:13:21]Another thing we have to watch though is along the coast there's going to be some coastal flooding I think from this.

[00:13:26]Maybe one to two feet maybe 1 to 3 feet above normal. Um high tide we'll probably have some coastal flooding concerns I think getting into this week Tuesday, Wednesday. Rough marine conditions also expected out there. So, that's something to keep in mind.

[00:13:40]Offshore it's going to be pretty pretty windy offshore. We're going to have some pretty big waves offshore. Uh that's to be expected, of course. Another look at what's happening though right now across our immediate area. Not a whole lot other than it's been extremely hot this weekend. It's 92 degrees right now in the city of New Orleans. Feels like 101.

[00:13:59]Very hot and muggy going into the early part of the evening. It's going to be warm and humid tonight if you have any plans. So, try to keep yourself cool and hydrated. Live look at radar. There are some storms off to our east, but I think we're going to be missing out on those.

[00:14:13]We're going to be mostly dry the rest of tonight and pretty dry tomorrow. Maybe a couple isolated storms here and there.

[00:14:18]Big thing tomorrow is the heat. We're going to start off our week just with hot, humid weather. We have a heat advisory tomorrow. Feels like temperatures up to 112. The heat advisory is from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

[00:14:30]Make sure you're keeping cool, keeping hydrated tomorrow. Dress with light, loose- fitting clothes. If you work outdoors, make sure you have plenty of water to drink. have a place to, you know, relax if you get overheated in some shade or maybe some air conditioning if you can make that happen. Feels like temperatures early in the week also are going to be around 110 to 112. Since we're going to have ample moisture spreading in across our area, that makes it feel even muggier and even more oppressively hot and humid. So, it's going to be really hot and really muggy this week, too. In addition to the fact that we could have some minor tropical impacts, but nothing to stress out about locally and even I think for the rest of the Gulf Coast at this point, the eastern and central Gulf Coast, I think this will be just minor impacts felt. If it can strengthen though and move west and head towards Texas, then we're going to have to really watch for spots off to the west.

[00:15:22]The western Gulf could have maybe some other things to, you know, pay attention to later in the week. But we will see.

[00:15:27]Time will tell. Make sure you're checking back for the latest, though.

[00:15:29]We'll have the latest update at 10:00 tonight. But here's your 7-day forecast for the New Orleans area. It's going to be hot and muggy early in the week.

[00:15:36]Couple spotty storms Monday, Tuesday.

[00:15:38]Few more scattered storms in the mix Wednesday into Thursday. Maybe even later in the week since we have that moisture hanging on. We'll just have some scattered storms. Pretty typical summertime weather though. Temperatures will be in the low 90s this week. Feels like up to 110 in the afternoons early in the week. So, thanks for tuning in.

[00:15:53]We'll be back at 10 o'clock.