Tobago Weather Outlook: Hurricane Season And Dry Spell Concerns

本站添加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:01][music] [music] [music] >> It sounds like a paradox, entering the wet season yet preparing for a drought, but that is the exact reality facing Tobago as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins. Weather experts at the Met Office say a developing El Nino pattern is creating a unique set of challenges for the sister isle. On one hand, it is suppressing major storm activity in our immediate vicinity. On the other hand, it is choking off the rainfall Tobago desperately needs.

[00:00:44]Between dry skies, hazy Saharan dust layers, and overheated oceans causing an explosion of sargassum seaweed on our beaches, Tobago's climate outlook is anything [music] but ordinary this year.

[00:00:57]Well, joining us to explain how these moving parts connect and what they mean for our daily lives is meteorologist two, Travis Gardner. Good morning, Travis, and welcome to the show.

[00:01:08]>> Hi, pleasant good morning. Thanks for having me here this morning.

[00:01:12]>> Now, Travis, the TTMS recently announced that we have a nearly 50% chance of a below normal hurricane season in our immediate area of interest with only about three named storms expected nearby. Now, that sounds like good news, but at the same time the Met Office has also issued a warning that Tobago is facing an impending drought. Help us to understand this morning how we could be entering the wet or hurricane season while simultaneously bracing for a drought.

[00:01:41]>> Okay, so yes, you are correct. Um the Met Service, we would have had our um outlook forum the wet season outlook forum on the 21st of May earlier this year, and that's a platform we used announce to our of the and the public what we're expecting for either the wet season or the dry season. So, um during that forum, we would have announced that yes, um due to the climatic factors that we have seen, we are expecting to have a average to below average hurricane season. But, because of factors that we have seen, we are also expecting some drought-like conditions in certain parts of the country, including Tobago. So, you did mention um the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

[00:02:25]And that is one of the key players or the key factors during our wet and hurricane season. So, that is one of the things that the climate section of the Met Service always looks for to know what phase it will be in to know what to expect for um Trinidad and Tobago. So, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, for those who want to get a better understanding, um it's a natural-occurring circulation that involves the ocean temperatures and the atmospheric circulation.

[00:02:54]And based on the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, you either have the El Niño phase or the warm phase, where we have warmer global temperatures, you have the cooler phase or the La Niña, and you have the neutral phase, what we're in currently.

[00:03:10]However, um what the climate section of the Met Service is seeing based on analysis, because we would be analyzing the climate here in Trinidad and Tobago and our region for a number of years, we are seeing that it is expected to go into the El Niño phase from July, and it's supposed to last until the rest of the year. So, seeing that that is expected, and we know what to expect when that happens, we are saying that okay, we are going to be in the warm phase, and usually when that happens, you have a lack of um cyclonic formation, a lack of convection, a lot of warm temperatures, um a lot of wind shear in the atmosphere, and that tends to break up storms as they try to develop. Hence, they would have given the prediction for a less active season in all area. And then what that does also, the warm temperatures, it creates a drought-like conditions in areas. Now, you mentioned the drought-like conditions in Tobago.

[00:04:08]Let me say that this is not something new. Last year around November, I would have been a part of a consultation in the Courland area where the Chief Secretary was present where WASA would have invited us as some of the key stakeholders to come and help the public to understand why they are not getting water.

[00:04:27]So, persons in that area of the island were complaining of the lack of water and WASA basically had to have the Met Service say, "Hey, we are not getting the amount of rainfall we need to supply you guys with water." So, that would have been November last year, which was the end of the wet season. And from then until now, we haven't received a sufficient amount of water to see that, "Okay, we are seeing improvement." And from November last year, we would have went into the dry season. The Met Service would have declared the dry season on the 8th of January earlier this year. And you know, during the dry season, we are not expecting a lot of rainfall.

[00:04:59]However, in January, we actually had a lot of rainfall here in Tobago. We had close to 150 mm here at our Crown Point station. And February wasn't bad as well. However, from April onwards, it been extremely dry on the island, especially here in the Crown Point area.

[00:05:17]In fact, this month of May, we are we are heading into breaking a record here in Tobago. So, the driest May on record here since we are collecting data since the '90s is in 2015 with 5.3 mm.

[00:05:35]Currently, today is the 28th of May. We have a few more days till the end of the month, and we only have 2.2 mm of rainfall recorded for the month of May this year. So, unless we see a serious uptick in rainfall over the next few days, which I don't have in my forecast, we are going to this this year is going to break a record for the driest May we have since we have been recording data here in Tobago and Crown Point. So, that is why the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is one of the main factors. You can see how it's going to help to depress or suppress some of the hurricane or or cyclonic development, but at the same time, given that we were already extremely dry since last year, and what we're expecting this year, you can see why the Met Services said, "Okay, Tobago is definitely going to see some drought-like conditions."

[00:06:22]>> Yeah.

[00:06:23]Now, Travis, we're experiencing punishing daily uh temperatures on land, but the ocean temperatures surrounding Tobago are also exceptionally high. So, how is this sea surface heat directly contributing to what scientists are predicting will be a record-breaking bloom year for sargassum seaweed in the region?

[00:06:43]>> Well, the sargassum seaweed is quickly becoming one of the the the main issues we have here on the island of Tobago, right? Um we have had a few consultations with um the Tobago Emergency Management Agency in terms of the utilization of the Met Service to help them determine or help them to know when the seaweed will be coming on our shores, right? For those who don't know, the sargassum seaweed is a floating brown algae that spreads out like a mat over the ocean, all right?

[00:07:13]And it comes ashore uh it it has a very bad smell associated with it. Um as it decomposes, it it releases some gases that is very harmful for both humans and animals. It can affect pregnant women.

[00:07:26]And we are in the Caribbean, we have beautiful beaches, and what it what it's doing to our beaches is it it it is really affecting our tourism industry.

[00:07:34]It's not just here in Tobago, it's affecting um the other islands. My colleagues in Grenada, Barbados, etc. have complained about the issue as well.

[00:07:42]So, it is not it's something that has only affected us. Now, um yes, we are expecting to get an optic in the amount of sargassum seaweed coming on our shores, right? But, the reason for that being is there is a sargasso sea that is located to the northwestern area of the Atlantic. And usually, we would get um some seaweed coming into the Caribbean region from there. But, what happened actually is around 2011, and scientists links it to human pollution. So, this is how the activities of human beings come back to haunt us. So, because of human pollution, the sargasso sea has over actually overflowed.

[00:08:25]And it has actually formed a second sea closer to us here in the Caribbean. So, in the wet season, you always hear the Met Service saying when they claim the start of the wet season, it's usually because of the passage of a tropical wave or rainfall from the ITCZ.

[00:08:40]It's a tropical convergence zone. That is one of the things that move over Trinidad and causes a lot of rainfall during the wet season. Well, it just so happened that the a second sargasso sargassum sea is forming near the ITCZ.

[00:08:54]And guess what?

[00:08:55]The ITCZ is near the equator, where it gets a lot of heat energy throughout the year. So, when you have that heat energy being pumped into that second sargasso sea, you have they have the the the the the energy to of the to give blooms throughout the year, which is what we are now seeing since 2011. And added to that, persons need to understand that these things are all connected: land, ocean, atmosphere, sea. So, you have the second sargasso sea forming near the ITCZ, so it's getting the heat energy.

[00:09:26]And then now, you also have um the Saharan dust in the atmosphere. Now, what the Saharan dust does, it deposits nutrients into the um sargassum the sargassum as it is developing. So, it's getting nutrients from above, it is getting heat from below, and hence you see that sargassum seaweed washing up on our shores. It is very expensive to remove from the beaches. It poses a serious problem for our tourism industry. And I [clears throat] can tell you, just like the hurricane season, you know the hurricane season is about to start on 1st of June and it runs until the 30th of November with a peak between August to October.

[00:10:05]Well, the reason for that peak is because as you move deeper into the year, closer to the summer, you're getting warmer ocean temperatures. So, guess what? As the ocean temperature warms up to give the the storms or potential hurricanes energy, so too is going to give the sargassum seaweed energy because that also feeds off that heat energy. So, here as we go into the deeper into the hurricane season, you're going to see more sargassum seaweed. So, we don't just have to prepare for what's coming above with the hurricanes. We now also have to be looking at our oceans to see when the sargassum seaweed is going to be coming in. And the Met Service, we have some products and services that we are working on so that we'll be able to help the team at the Tobago House of Assembly fight that that has that is now affecting Tobago.

[00:10:49][clears throat] >> Travis, briefly before we wrap up. Now, even in a quiet localized hurricane season, it only takes one system to really cause devastation. And of course, a drought brings in a slow-moving disaster. So, what is your brief bit of advice now to Tobagonians today regarding water conservation on one hand and hurricane preparedness on the other hand?

[00:11:11]>> Okay.

[00:11:12]You see, this is that word quiet hurricane season is a term we try to stay away from because it tends to give the the the citizens the wrong idea.

[00:11:22]Yes, we are saying we are expecting a less active hurricane season this year, but I like to remind persons of what took place with Barrel in 2024 right here in Tobago. We didn't get a direct hit, and it what it it caused close to $600,000 in damages for the island. And we could look at Melissa in Jamaica last year. So, the the point being that it only takes one of these storms or one of these hurricanes to cause serious damage in our small Caribbean territories. Now, remember Trinidad and Tobago is in the hurricane belt, and Tobago is north of Trinidad, so we are even at a greater risk. So, I want to urge persons, even if you know, they're expecting 15 storms, it could just take that one to cause the devastation or to cause us serious havoc. And persons need to remember that um a lot of persons think of hurricanes and they only think of the wind. They need to think of the water. Storm surges are serious problem, and we are on an island. So, we need to make sure that we are we accelerate our preparedness. In In preparation for what is to come, the Met Service, we have started consultations with our stakeholders. So, we have gotten the different stakeholders in the room, be it WASA, T&TEC, Airport Authority, and we are ensuring that ourselves, along with the the state key stakeholders, are prepared. We call that phase one. So, we had consultations in Trinidad, had some here in Tobago. TEMA even had one on Monday, where we again again sat down and made sure everybody's on the same page, and who's not fully prepared is getting prepared. Phase two is getting the citizens on the island prepared. So, I myself and the Met Service here in Tobago, we teamed up in a campaign called the Make Tobago a Hard Target Campaign, alongside TEMA and the County Medical Officer of Health, where we go around to different divisions and different youth camps, making sure that persons are aware of what is your evacuation plan. Do you know where your the shelter is, if need be? Do you have a plan with your kids, if they need to What numbers do they need to call? Do you know your emergency numbers? So, we take it on ourselves to ensure that we go out every year and sensitize the public on these main information that they need to know.

[00:13:29]Um Like I said, since last year, we know that we have the problem with the issues with the water.

[00:13:35]It's It's especially bad in the southwestern part of the island, Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou Sou And most importantly, make sure you're getting your information from the official sources.

[00:13:58]The Met Service, we have a website, we have social media pages, we have a mobile app. You have ODP, and you have TEMA. There are so many places you can get the right information during this time of year. Persons like to also put on misinformation, so make sure you're getting information from the official source. And let us work with one another to see that we can make Tobago and Trinidad Tobago safe this hurricane [snorts] season.

[00:14:21]>> All right. Thank you very much, Travis, for joining us this morning and helping us prepare for the season ahead. Have a great day.

[00:14:29]>> All right.

[00:14:29]Have a good day.

[00:14:30]>> All right.