How Smaller Clubs are Outsmarting Football’s Elite

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Our final topic, we're heading back to um the sport of football. This topic derives from a detailed observation made by one of our listeners, Robert Kramer.

[00:00:10]Um now, unlike um Mr. Yansen earlier on who made some certain assumptions which turned out to be >> Yansen, >> sorry, Fransen.

[00:00:17]>> Fran 1016. You use his full name, please. 1016 in there as well.

[00:00:22]>> Unlike Mr. Francon who made certain assumptions which turned out to be um incorrect. This was an absolute belter of a post for all the right reasons which is >> some stuff that we've been discussing a bit on and off here or there but really adding detail and context to it and then serving it up to us and saying guys we I want to hear you discuss this.

[00:00:42]>> Do you know why is I think it's because it's very easy to overlook. We get caught up so much in looking at the successes the big successes in football and the big failures.

[00:00:50]>> Who won this trophy?

[00:00:51]>> Who who won that trophy? who's uh who's having an absolute disaster, who's been fired, which players been amazing. And you know, in a lot of sports conversations, that's that's what drives it. In our sports conversations, we can't just get sucked into this. And some of these stories across Europe this year, as we'll just touch on now, are absolutely incredible of small teams outperforming some of the bigger ones.

[00:01:10]And we're not just talking about, you know, okay, look, Aston Villa doing really well, but there's still, you know, 378 million in revenue with the sixth sixth biggest wage from European governor from Yeah, exactly. What we're talking about here is FC Tun in Switzerland getting promoted last year, a budget of €4 million, pretty much bankrupt 3 years ago, being saved by a businessman, a local CEO, injecting 3 million into the club. They then get promoted and they've now they've now won the Swiss League and will be back in the Champions League. I say back in it because they were actually in it 20 years ago playing the likes of Arsenal, uh, Dennard Burkamp, 90th minute winner in that in 2005. But basically from that moment they got about 20 million in revenue, Champions League revenue and they just couldn't handle it and it was a disaster for the club and they've had a real challenge ever since. Now they've come back into the league and it's the first ever team even Leicester couldn't didn't do this. The first team is Switzerland but only Kaiser Schlton and Nottingham Forest I think had done it before where they got promoted and won the league the year after. These stories are actually cropping up a lot more.

[00:02:08]We've had Bodo Glimps doing unbelievably well in the Champions League, the Norwegian team who play very far north in Norway on a on a like 4G pitch. I hadn't made the link with your Norwegian background, Charles.

[00:02:21]>> No, none of my family in there cuz they're all footballers. Mine are >> Oh, because it probably is a ski jumping part of Norway, isn't it? It's very snowy.

[00:02:27]>> Norway is very snowy.

[00:02:28]>> I wonder if it's difficult for them at academy level to try and work out which their kids are going to be better footballers and which of them are going to be ski jumpers.

[00:02:34]>> Very easy as we know.

[00:02:36]>> But look, as I said, >> story for another day. I actually know somebody who used to be the technical director at Berlin. So, so I'm going to ask him that question. I do. Yeah.

[00:02:41]>> Ask ask him on the selection process.

[00:02:43]Either way, it was a very small town. I think I haven't got that data in front of me directly. I think it's about 50,000 grounds 8,000 make it to the last 16 of the Champions League.

[00:02:51]>> Yeah.

[00:02:51]>> You know, the these stories have been far more frequent and in the Premier League, you know, there there are still incredible moments this year where you've looked at Bournemouth and Brighton and Brenford all not moments.

[00:03:03]What's the current EPL table below the top five?

[00:03:06]>> I haven't got it in front of me. I'm going to go Bournemouth.

[00:03:08]>> Yeah.

[00:03:09]>> Brenford.

[00:03:10]>> Keep going.

[00:03:11]>> Brighton.

[00:03:12]>> Keep going.

[00:03:14]>> Sunderland.

[00:03:15]>> By the way, that's pretty good. Charles, Bournemouth, Brighton, Brenford, Sunderland with the exception of getting Brighton and Brenford the wrong way round. You were spot on there. Well done.

[00:03:22]>> And then Chelsea.

[00:03:24]>> Um Chelsea bottom half.

[00:03:25]>> Yeah, I'm 10th.

[00:03:26]>> Oh, so still top half. Okay, let's see what happens.

[00:03:28]>> Well, after tonight obviously. So Bournemouth, Brighton, Brenford and Sunderland this year in the EPLL have outperformed Chelsea and Spurs. And that's quite interesting because in the case of Bournemouth, Brighton and Brenford, that's not a one-off. That's that's they have consistently been pushing towards the top end, the top half of the Premier League. And these are all clubs that in the relatively recent past have been in the bottom two leagues in England and and and not there on an occasional basis. They're on a like semi-permanent basis. I mean, when I was young, Bournemouth were always in the bottom division. They almost went out the whole league. Brenford were a sort of perennial league one, so tier three type team. And Brighton, well, I remember seeing them in the bottom division as well. But they were >> they were I mean, they were literally a game or a half from going out the football league, weren't they?

[00:04:12]>> I thought it was Bournemouth, but anyhow, but maybe Brighton as well.

[00:04:14]Maybe Brighton. Anyway, look, but I actually want to get on to let's let's talk about the other countries. So, in Denmark, um AGK Arus um are the champions. um not one of the very smallest clubs but absolutely not FC Copenhagen or Bronby right so not not one of those really famous big clubs you regularly see in European football kind of >> area measure second >> and they're also a small club fundamentally um Viking in Norway coming after Bod Glint winning four of the last five seasons Viking this season in Sweden they're the Swedish champions for 2025 again a small to mediumsiz clubs in Scotland obviously just failed to beat >> we didn't mention that did we I mean how did we not I devastated. Yeah, unfortunate. That would require an entire episode. Um, Lask in Austria again, you know, got some big big clubs in Austria. Domestic double.

[00:05:05]>> Um, there, you know, again, we're talking about some much more famous clubs. Rapid Vienna and Saltzburg and these types of clubs. Ton in Switzerland, you've mentioned um, you know, again, Grasshoppers of Zurich and Basel and these types of clubs. Young Boys, again, forget it. Ton with their 5 million euro budget. Ko in Italy, fifth in Serie >> ahead of Juventus.

[00:05:25]>> Ahead of Juventus with a budget of 35 million.

[00:05:28]>> Do you know even Vill I looked at Vel ahead of Atletico Madrid. Third place in >> V Royale is also on my list. Third in La Liga would very much be regarded in their own region as being the minnows compared to Valencia let alone compared to Atletico Madrid and they're third in La Liga.

[00:05:42]>> NEC third I think Ajax having a terrible year. uh you know I think their wage bill is €8.75 million >> and in France their whole wage bill >> and in France we've had a slightly closer fight for the title this year it does look like PSG have done okay they have >> they have actually done it right against LOS who they've been fighting toeto- toe with all year now I just had a just a look at this cuz we discussed Ton being on four or five million and that being sort of you know maybe >> 20% L's budget is €30 million right so to give you That's sort of 26 million pounds. That's sort of roughly what a mid-table championship side in England would spend. They're up against PSG, arguably the best and you know, one of the most expensive club sides in the world, €200 million, right? So PSG are spending seven times what lawns are spending and yet at domestic level they're almost on a almost on a level pegging. Um, so and then we got even in Italy, we got Atlanta who have been outstanding the last few seasons.

[00:06:44]>> They're having a good year this year.

[00:06:45]>> I know it's not a good year this year, but they I think sometimes with these clubs having to also play European football can end up catching up with them after a little bit of while just the sheer number of games and the required squad depth becomes a bit of a problem.

[00:06:57]>> Well, the sorry >> which again has happened a bit to glimpse as well this year.

[00:07:00]>> You talked about squad depth and how PSG have actually come out on top and how difficult it is to compete. They have pretty much, if you look at the statistics this year for their players, they have been so comfortable in this league over the last years that Dembele started nine games in the league this year. Marinosh is something similar.

[00:07:15]They've just been after the Champions League. They've been and and the strength of this team is that they can rest their players to that extent >> and still win the league. But I think it's it's nonetheless worth pointing out that Lance have been able to come second in a league where even if you take PSG out of it, you've got clubs like Leon and Marles who would be spending much more money than Lance would be spending.

[00:07:39]Le as well, which would be a more local competitor to Lance. Um, so it's part of a pattern of I'm not say small clubs except maybe for Tun. Um, but I'm going to say kind of like ambitious midsize clubs. It appears in the last 5 to 10 years have gained an ability to be able to be if they are very well-run and we'll come on to what that means in a moment to be highly competitive at the top of European football even with budgets that would you would think and certainly most fans would think you wouldn't be able to achieve that with.

[00:08:11]>> So yeah, and the the why right is the is the interesting question. I was just trying to I was trying to put it thematically and I wanted I didn't want to tell you beforehand but as someone that again has operated in these environments and knows how this works I wanted to see your thoughts on on thinking about it thematically. So just to lay out a few of them that I put in, you know, some of them will be obvious.

[00:08:30]Data and analytics and the leveraging of that. Um identity over individuals, sell smart, reinvest smarter, financial discipline as a strategic advantage most importantly. And finally, coaching clarity. But I thought the coaching clarity in there was one I'd like to throw in because I know of your opinions of of coaching.

[00:08:50]>> Well, I think it's very important. I want to ask about the first one there which is uh what did I say? I said data and analytics. You said something to me yesterday which really like interested me when we always hold Brighton and Brenford up as this incredible case study of how to find a model that beats the established. You then turn around to me and you said, "Yeah, but you know, kind of necessity is the mother of invention. are not going to be making the money that Manchester City and Arsenal and Liverpool are in the same ways, i.e. through massive match day revenue, through big commercial deals.

[00:09:25]So, they have to go and find different ways to do it. And player trading is the way that they've decided to elevate their position and they've done it incredibly well. What what's the influence of that in these stories?

[00:09:35]Okay. So I think um the phrase data analytics has become a bit of a sort of a bit of a thing right in that a lot of people say it and it's become popular parliament even amongst the fan bases and and the football media >> but when I ask a lot of people who talk about it have you actually ever seen what it what this looks like what it actually means right and all it basically is is like sort of you know the gathering of evidence and then effectively putting it through rather than just saying well here are some facts which is relatively easy to do is saying, well, how can we then put those through various sort of analytical models which then makes sense of those things and and ends up with calls to action, decisions which a club can then make which are smarter than the decision they might have made if they hadn't been able to use that evidence in that way.

[00:10:23]What does this mean? What this means is is that prior to um the the availability of electronic data about players in lots of different parts of the world for Brighton to start recruiting players from Ecuador, they would need to have a massive global scouting operation, right? Which again is very expensive and where they will get disintermediated by the very biggest clubs who have the ability to employ more scouts effectively. Okay? and they would then have to sort of use work out from that scouting operation. Okay, we we found this really interesting player in Ecuador. But how does he compare to another player we found in Cameroon? I have no idea. Now what's happened for instance is the use of data is that the ability to compare different leagues around the world has very significantly improved. So in other words, all the players who get transferred out of all the various different leagues and what their subsequent performances go on to demonstrate gets fed into the mix and it gets spat out that there's a sort of ranking list of leagues. So you can say, okay, if a player is performing to this level in the Ecuadorian top division at this age, that roughly equates to over here. Okay. What that then means is once that player has been highlighted in Ecuador, Brighton can then put a scout on a plane to go to Ecuador to watch Kaisedo play, right? And then the whole thing can work from there. So it's it's cut out an area which previously would have been unbelievably expensive and difficult for a medium-sized club to compete against a larger club and enabled them a smarter, cheaper, better way to access this talent from around the world. Now the next thing is is that the various different geographies of the rest of the world have become much more accessible for all sorts of different reasons but chiefly of which is that the football development patterns in these other countries have improved. So whereas previously quite often even if there was significant quote talent in a particular country by the time that a player of that talent had reached the age of 181 19 they were so far behind technically >> that actually getting them to translate from there into the English top division or the French top division or the German top division was just just a really really big jump. They pretty much had to be a genius right to be able to bridge that gap in technical and physical preparation.

[00:12:44]FIFA over the last 20 and 30 years has been investing large amounts of money in all of these geographies. This is how FIFA presidents get reelected. What mostly happens is they put a lot of money into development systems and facilities in all of these parts of the world. And I've known this through working the Caribbean, right? FIFA is plowing a lot of money into football facilities in the Caribbean to enable young Caribbean talent to be competitive, more competitive, so they don't get left too far behind. at the age of 17 18 they've still got a chance of making on the global stage. So you've got a higher underlying level of football development. Then digitally you've got the ability to assess at an early stage where that talent is and then through a much more developed understanding of how the visa systems work through the various different geographies. You've now got people at these football clubs working out how are we actually going to move that player within the existing visa rules from here to here to here to here. So why why aren't all the top clubs just >> you've already answered it necessity is the mother of invention right which is that once you know that you cannot sign a fully matured super elite talent once you know that then you come to well we're going to have to find one who is which the market has not yet worked out is that >> but we have we think he will be in two or three years time and therefore we're going to get two advantages from this signing we believe one of which is we're going to get the benefit of his playing services for the next year or two and then at the end of it one of these very biggest clubs is going to buy him fully formed off us there.

[00:14:15]>> So interesting.

[00:14:16]>> So if you look at Chelsea just take your club as an example of why I think it's >> it's easier said than done for the very biggest clubs to do this right which is that >> what you need is for that player who is being signed as a development prospect to then be given consistent game time because the only way in which they are realistically going to end up being what they need to be is if they play. The problem with the very biggest clubs is that the expectation is on a week-to-eek basis is they compete at the very top of their leagues. And this produces a sort of unfortunate vortex because it basically means that you need readymade finished products to come in that's very expensive on the one hand makes it very difficult to make a profit out of them on the other hand because they're already fully priced. So unless they do something really spectacular with you then probably going to be worth less rather than more at the end of their contract cuz they're going to be older.

[00:15:02]These midsize clubs are sourcing these players aged 19, 20, 21, 22. They're then getting a couple of their best years out of them. They're then selling them at the peak of their powers for the massive amounts of money to the very biggest clubs who then get maybe the last couple of years of their peak years out of them before they start to set off and they get sold at a at a loss. So it it's quite a big call I think for one of the very biggest clubs to say right even though we can afford to buy these fully formed players actually it's bad practice we don't want to do it >> right so what we what we're going to do instead is we're going to bite the bullet of explaining to our fan base that even though we could afford to buy 60 million pound players we're actually going to start buying a whole bunch of 15 million pound players.

[00:15:45]>> Yeah that's not good. Well, it's kind of what Chelsea's done, right? And I I know they're not all 15 million. They're more like 20, 30 million and >> Well, yeah, but they do drip feed it in with the 100 million and Fernando Sky, which I'm saying as a fan like pates you. So, >> right, this is the point. That plecation is the point, right? Which is all the clubs we're looking at here have no need of placation because their fans are not expecting to win the league. Their fans are happy to see their clubs just be competitive. And even if they have a season where they're not that competitive, oh well, we're not that big a club, so doesn't matter. That takes the pressure off the executives and the board, which means they can pursue a medium-term strategy without constantly having to go out of the stadium with the coats over their heads trying to make sure they don't get, isn't it? If we look at the Premier League, the six then that you have at the top, they're all playing the same game. It's highly likely that a couple of them may screw that up. That leaves an opportunity for the clubs operating like Brighton, Brenford, Bournemouth to come up and compete at a high level with a really successful execution. I mean, I was looking at Bodo Glimps. They've averaged kind of a transfer budget about €6 million. The squad value total is 53.4 million euros or has been now they'll go no the Champions League uh run has done an amazing job for them. Some of those players will go for a significantly more than that. But that squad value alone I just had a look on transfer market.

[00:16:57]There are 122 individual players in European football valued higher than 53.4 million euros and that's their total squad value playing in a Champions League last 16. So this so this speaks to another point you mentioned right at the start right which we need to come back to. Right. As we we mentioned data analytics and the way in which it's provided obviously it's I'm not saying it's easy the development of these systems to do it at the very highest level which is what Brighton and Brenford owners have done is extremely difficult otherwise everyone would do it right so just just to make that clear and there are other clubs within this group in Europe who are also >> quite far forward in in the use of those systems but the next bit which is actually a more common theme without this group is the extent to which football is a team game and I think this is the bit which is often underestimated ated by fans and by new owners. Okay?

[00:17:44]So, if you think about Chelsea's new owners strategy of garing 30, 40, 50, 60 top young players and hoping that somehow if you throw all these ingredients into the mix that a quality team will emerge from out of that mix.

[00:17:57]What you're looking at a lot of these other clubs is realistic playing squads which are more like 20 21 players in total who have got any chance of playing and where every single spot in that squad is very carefully chosen for what which bit of the jigsaw is this player solving for.

[00:18:12]>> This is why I turn identity over individual.

[00:18:14]>> Yeah.

[00:18:14]>> Yeah.

[00:18:14]>> And that's super important.

[00:18:16]>> Um now the consistency of the coaching position is very important to that because what you're doing is every transfer window you're working out which little bit of the jigsaw isn't quite right. you're removing that piece and replacing it with one piece or two pieces. It's small tweaks, small changes. And then this is another thing which I think that midsize clubs find it easier to maintain a consistent coaching setup cuz again the pressure on instant success is lower. So you don't get those sackings which happen almost not by mistake but happen almost as a sacrificial lamb to pate the fan base because we've been through a bad patch.

[00:18:51]are the midsize clubs. You're more able to say, "Hey, yeah, we've been through a bit of a tough patch, but I think we're going to come through it. Hey, everyone, it's fine. We've got this type thing."

[00:18:58]And again, you're not having to grow a fake mustache and try and flee the country if you say that. You can still walk around the town in one piece. As you know, my view on the difference that an individual head coach or manager makes, it's five or 10% here or there, but by the way, 5 or 10% is quite a big difference because it's often probably that final five or 10%.

[00:19:14]>> Absolutely it is. My argument is not that five or 10% is a small number. I think it's quite a big number. It's just not 50% which is what a lot of fans think, right? A lot of fans think our players basically are really good. If we chuck out the current clown in the dugout and replace them with a genius, then everything will be fine. I don't think that really works. But yeah, so just looking through these these different clubs and the the current sort of levels of achievement. I don't think it's as simple as saying if you are the owner or on the board of a midsize club, we're going to do the same as TUN. We want to have a budget of 4.5 million.

[00:19:48]there will be all sorts of particularities to their particular situation and the Swiss League as a whole and the immigration system operating within Switzerland. But I think what is interesting is one conclusion that can be drawn is that the amount of money being spent as a cause of success is significantly overestimated. I think we can say that right. I think the level of success across this number of leagues with massive differences compared to what you would expect if it was causation rather than correlation. There's clearly correlation but not causation I think because if you look at for instance Bournemouth Brighton Brenford Sunland what would you say their wage budgets are?

[00:20:30]>> I think it's like between 40 and 60 isn't it?

[00:20:33]>> 70 >> about 70 million. What is Spurs playing budget?

[00:20:37]>> Uh we don't 240 >> 160 and and they're accused of >> under spending. Yeah, >> they're accused of unspending by only spending 160.

[00:20:47]>> So if you were to say to a Spurs fan, >> do you know what your problem actually is? You're spending too much because effectively even though you're comparing your your spending levels against another club who's spending 180 and you're going, we should be spending an extra 20 million. Actually, the issue here is is that your culture is not to be smart. Your culture is simply say, we got a lot of money to spend. We'll go out in the sweet shop. all the other big boys will be in the sweet shop and we'll try and get the same sweeties as them but we'll spend a little bit less than them so we'll get slightly less good sweeties whereas these other clubs are saying we can't afford to go in the sweet shop we have to go and find the sweet factory we have to go and find these sweets before they get in the sweet shop so if you're a club like Spurs and you're caught in between neither able to sign the really marquee player who is absolutely proven and who absolutely is going to deliver nor thinking smartly about well yeah but how are we going find the the one that hasn't been discovered yet. They end up somewhere in between ending up signing very expensive players who are actually probably no more proven than some of these other >> that is what Chelsea have been doing.

[00:21:51]That's not me being critical. That's that is exactly where they've been, right? They've been signing these players for 100 I mean Enzo Fernandez played six months at Benfica >> before joining Chelsea and he had a great World Cup.

[00:22:02]>> That's not proven, right? He's had a good period of a short amount of time.

[00:22:05]So that's so so really what you're saying is if we go back to that necessity mother invention through the way that football has developed some of these smaller clubs have been forced to think differently the way that they've been able to identify value is looking at a lot of the playing side of the game by identifying where the top players can come from that has helped them massively on the pitch shock horror right still about playing but what it's been able to do is create a really exciting group of players across all of these different squads capable of competing with the top ones who may lack some of those core things that we've talked about, whether it's the cultural fit to the organization, they're just a great brand or great global name, those things are actually not as important as it is having 21 to 26 players in there specifically put together for a reason.

[00:22:49]>> Very nicely put, Charlie. So, Mr. Kramer, >> thank you.

[00:22:53]>> Mr. Kramer, thank you for that. And actually, this is the type of topic which I'd be really interested in readers and listeners views on it because look, >> we don't have a monopoly on wisdom. A lot of what we're saying there is obser observations based on some facts with some presumptions and some assumptions that are made alongside that. But there will be individual instances within these clubs which we are not necessarily aware of. Now I'm not aware of what Laskin Austria's particular strategies been when they winning the domestic double. You know I am somewhat aware of what's happening in Ko. There'll be others who are more more aware than me.

[00:23:24]So any thoughts and details that people have out there? I'd be really interested to hear on that on those topics.

[00:23:29]>> Absolutely. And um you know, thank you for for putting that in. I also like the fact that it's kind of a positive take.

[00:23:35]I think it's very easy to get caught up in the clubs that are doing things wrong or or getting all negative. So looking at these clubs that are doing great things is um is quite refreshing.