When a major corporate holder like Strategy shifts from being a net buyer to potentially selling Bitcoin to meet dollar-denominated obligations, it creates significant downward pressure on prices because the market interprets this as a fundamental change in institutional demand rather than just a transactional sale.
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Strategy sells Bitcoin: What this means for BTC | #ARCHIPnewsAdded:
Hello everyone. Welcome back to Archip News. What's happening to crypto markets and why is Strategy all of a sudden selling BTC? Let's unpack all of this.
On a higher timeframe, crypto markets are still in correction mode. After it became known that US company Strategy recently sold 32 Bitcoin worth around 2.5 million US dollars, prices reacted sharply.
Important to note, Strategy has sold Bitcoin before. In 2022, the company sold a total of 704 Bitcoin for [music] tax loss harvesting purposes, allowing it to realize losses for tax reasons.
This time around, however, the sale appears to be more closely linked to the company's business model.
Strategy raises capital from investors and uses those proceeds to buy Bitcoin.
In return, it promises investors a fixed monthly dividend denominated in US dollars.
As we all know, Bitcoin does not generate any cash flows. [music] So, the question is how can Strategy service these dividend obligations then?
So far, the company has done this by issuing new common shares or preferred shares.
This model works particularly well when Bitcoin is in an uptrend because the value of the company rises alongside the value of its existing Bitcoin holdings.
In a Bitcoin downtrend, however, the strategy becomes much harder to sustain.
At that point, the company may be left with only one option, liquidating previously acquired Bitcoin to raise more US dollars.
That appears to be exactly what Strategy is doing right now. And there is reason to believe that the 32 Bitcoin just sold will not be the last to be offloaded.
[music] A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests just that. Strategy currently has interest and dividend obligations of around 1.7 billion US dollars.
Broken down monthly, this translates into roughly 137 million US dollars in dividend payments. At the same time, the company reportedly has only 900 million US dollars in cash reserves remaining.
Now, one does not need to be a financial wizard to make the legitimate observation, where is Strategy supposed to get the needed US dollars from to honor their dollar commitments if not by selling more BTC?
Of course, the company could sell more MSTR shares given that their MNAV is still at 1.23.
But executive chairman Michael Saylor mentioned in a recent earnings call that the current MNAV at 1.2 is at a critical threshold below which they don't want to issue any more shares.
Another lever Strategy can pull is reducing the dividend rate or even suspending a small portion of their overall dividend payments, but holders of these preferred shares would be far from amused. In fact, Strategy's flagship product STRC is currently trading below par at around 94 US dollars and any dividend adjustment could push it even lower. So, what does this all mean for crypto investors?
Should Strategy indeed sell more Bitcoin in the near future, the Bitcoin price would see more downward pressure.
But not only that, the reason the market is currently reacting this strongly is less about the sales in and of itself.
After all, 32 BTC are nothing in the grand scheme of things. It is more about how Strategy has gone from one of the biggest recent net buyers to not buying any more.
That's the meaningful change that is spooking the market right now.
>> [music] >> Now, what do you think? Will Strategy have to sell more? And what do you think of the company in general? Is it net beneficial to Bitcoin or maybe not? Let us know in the comments and don't forget to like and subscribe so you don't miss any future update. Until next time, your team [music] at Archip.
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