Weather forecasting involves analyzing atmospheric conditions including pressure systems, moisture levels, and instability to predict precipitation patterns and storm risks. Meteorologists assess multiple factors such as low pressure systems, upper-level pressure patterns, and soil saturation to determine the likelihood of severe weather events like heavy rainfall, hail, and flooding. Risk levels are communicated using probability scales (e.g., 1 out of 4 for marginal risk), helping the public understand potential dangers and take appropriate precautions.
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Deep Dive
Friday ForecastAdded:
Weather with Shelby Shauble.
>> Hello everyone. Happy Friday. We're noticing a lot of that cloud cover this morning on our windows and more tower cam, but above that, there's a layer of sunshine as well. Might not be seeing too much of that today, though we are noticing already some scattered showers and storms starting to encompass some of the region. I'd say not really bringing in anything too crazy, just some heavier rain and some isolated storms in some periods with a little bit more of that lightning. And then there is a flood watch off to our east. So if you're headed in that direction, be mindful of that. That's to expire around 10:00 a.m.
this morning. We're also looking at some 60s and 70s on the board for us. So not a cool start. I'd say mild to warmer for what we're used to seeing in the morning. And over the last 24 hours, some areas have definitely seen some pickups in precipitation, especially Springfield. They're expected to see the most rainfall throughout the weekend as a whole throughout the four states. I know Springfield's not really in our viewing area, but still, if you're headed in that direction this weekend, you might notice a bit more of that. And we have low pressure to the south of us.
So that's what's fueling a lot of this system kind of moving in right now.
We're going to also notice some impacts from an upper level of pressure to the west and north, and that's what's going to bring us some activity to the west as well. And you can see that filtering in right here. Now, this could carry in some stronger storms as we get into this evening for a couple areas. There is a marginal threat off to our far west, but it is kind of barely touching Coffeyville. So right kind of on the edge of our viewing area in southeast Kansas, if you are in that area, you might notice a little bit more of that hail and also some stronger winds at times, but a small risk for that, and that's mainly what we'll be tracking.
Then as the system continues to shift in and influence us, we'll be noticing a lot of that's going to shift from more so pushing in some stronger stuff to the south from the south to the east, and now it's going to be influencing us more so to the west. So if you live to the west of us, that's where we'll be seeing a bit more of that. It'll likely be impacting some portions of southeast Kansas as we continue to shift throughout today. But we are going to be noticing a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, one out of four. So, not a large risk, but there could be some periods where some heavier rainfall comes down. Definitely notice that yesterday near Springfield and Branson where that flood watch existed. There was actually some flash flood warnings over there in that area to put it into perspective. Tomorrow we'll see a similar risk just in a different region a little bit, and then we'll also be looking at Sunday a marginal risk one out of five for some risk for some hail and also some winds, but we can't forget some localized flooding threats as we continue to see the soils become a little bit more saturated. We really haven't seen too much of that heavier rainfall just yet, but it is on the way and we've already noticed it in some areas to our east. This is what it's going to be feeling like over the next 7 days for us. We're going to see some 90s on the board. 91 Sunday and 90 on Monday as upper-level ridging is going to start to build in tomorrow for us that'll help to pick up our temperatures. We'll also see more increases in moisture, so it's likely going to be a bit muggy on Sunday and even possibly Monday for us. But, our highs for today are not in the 90s just yet, around 81 in Joplin, 79 in Nevada, and even 81 in Bentonville as well. But, this evening we'll see some 60s on the board, so we're going to start to drop off a little bit this evening as well. Here is a look at your KSN forecast from the local weather authority. High today is going to be around 81°. We're tracking scattered showers and storms as they're moving in.
Now, with these systems, when we do see things pick up, it's going to be because instability is going to be increasing this afternoon. We'll see that trend kind of throughout our weekend, but the shear is expected to be lower. So, that's why we don't really have a tornado threat today.
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