SpaceX Changes the Rules & a $303B Rebalance Hits Tomorrow

Ajouté : 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]$33 billion in rebalancing happened on Friday. Nvidia dropped big, but they also unveiled some huge news with Microsoft over the weekend. Japanese crude oil reserves are at the largest draw down in the country's history as the US and Iran still can't come to terms and the SpaceX IPO is changing the rules of the stock market, literally.

[00:00:23]Today, we cover why stocks are rising, what to know, and where the action is right now.

[00:00:32]The S&P 500 secured a 9-week win streak last week and SPY made new all-time highs on Friday at 75808. It's now up 20.47% from March 30th lows. But Nvidia sold off hard minutes before Friday's close.

[00:00:49]MSCI, a company that creates and maintains some of the world's most important stock market indexes and is responsible for managing trillions of dollars, had its largest ever rebalance with roughly $33 billion in trades happening. These types of flows often create sharp volatility near the closing bell as funds sell recent winners and rebalance exposures. So, where is this rebalancing money actually going?

[00:01:14]Software stocks have been the prime beneficiary. Ticker symbol IGV posted its biggest day since the April 2025 Liberation Day low. And Microsoft is the largest software company and heaviest weighted stock in IGV. Over the weekend, they unveiled the very first Windows PCs powered by Nvidia chips as the primary processor. And both of these companies, Nvidia and Microsoft, have huge events coming up. Nvidia is kicking things off in Taipei at the Computex trade show and GTC event which runs next week from June 1st through June 5th. Simultaneously, Microsoft's head of Windows and devices confirmed that something massive is coming for developers at Microsoft's build conference next week as well. This conference is on June 2nd and 3rd in San Francisco. So, keep a close eye on both of these stocks. Microsoft has already been running in the short term and this partnership unlocks an entirely new multi-billion dollar sector for Nvidia outside of cloud data centers and it signals that the Microsoft Nvidia hardware ecosystem is ready to go on the absolute offensive. Very interesting and very exciting. But let's also talk about what's going on with this SpaceX IPO because we have a pretty significant story related to that. Index providers have waved the profitability requirement and dramatically cut the seasoning window. Basically, the S&P 500 normally requires 12 months of trading and four quarters of profitability in order for companies to go into the index. And both of those requirements have been waved.

[00:02:48]The NASDAQ cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days down to 15 and the Russell cut theirs all the way down to five. So, what that means practically is that roughly over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money is essentially going to be forced to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that S&P 500 funds alone will need to absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months of inclusion and Russell 1000 and NASDAQ 100 funds will absorb another 24%. So, these rules like the profitability requirements and the seasoning windows were specifically built to protect passive investors and they've been waved here. And this IPO with SpaceX is actually set for June 12th. And as we know, there's been a lot of hype with certain space companies into this IPO.

[00:03:43]One of them is ticker symbol DXYZ where SpaceX holds a 14.5% waiting in their portfolio. But this also holds other companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Datab Bricks where we could actually see a better choice in ticker symbol NASA. This is an ETF that holds specifically space stocks. And SpaceX has a 6.54% waiting in this ETF. So, as I look at it, these two stocks are going to be highly on the radar for the next couple of weeks. But, of course, something else that's on the radar is what's going on with oil and the overall global situation with Iran.

[00:04:19]Japanese crude oil reserves posted the largest draw down in the country's history. While Japan still holds meaningful reserves with 200 plus days, this is the largest ever SPR release at 80 million plus barrels initially plus follow on taps. And the US Iran deal is only getting more complicated, not less.

[00:04:39]Iran's chief negotiator came out over the weekend and said Tyrron will not agree to any deal unless it fully secures Iranian rights. And he also made it pretty clear that they don't trust the US right now either.

[00:04:51]>> And Trump said he's in no hurry to make a deal and added that if they don't get what they want, they'll end it in a different way. And according to the New York Times, the Trump administration actually sent a new, even tougher proposal back to Iran, which includes harder demands and is designed to speed up the process by putting pressure on Iran to accept. and Iran has been rejecting proposals almost as fast as they come in. On top of that, Israel also expanded its ground assault in Lebanon over the weekend, pushing deeper into the country than it has in any of its previous ground invasions over the last 25 years. Investors are highly optimistic about the Iran war and aren't concerned that it's going to be a problem for stocks. We're now 93 days into the war and if oil prices stay elevated, investors may reach a point where the elephant in the room, elevated oil prices, can no longer be ignored.

[00:05:49]We'll see. As we look at SPY right now, it's at new all-time highs. Tom, what are you seeing on the charts? Yeah, the new all-time highs at 75808. We're just under 760, which was a big psychological level on the radar as the spies continued higher. Something that I'm looking at from Friday is that clear resistance around 758. It will be important for the SPY to get back through there on its move to the upside.

[00:06:15]It actually posted a slight trend of lower highs at the end of the day with that rejection. So, as I look at the spy, there was also a large support posted on Friday very close to 755. If we see the support zone give out, I would not be surprised if the SPY pulled back a little bit down to 754, maybe even 752, which is a very critical zone of support that we've been watching over the past couple weeks. But something else that we've also been looking at over the past couple of weeks is the clear uptrend that the SPY has been on.

[00:06:45]It's actually been following this channel pretty consistently with a lot of touches on the upper side of the channel and on the bottom side of the channel. I would not be surprised if this lower side of the channel was tested again. We recently saw the spy touch the top end of this channel on Friday. So, if it does pull back, potentially watch this lower line of the channel for a bounce. I will be concerned though if this channel gives out and I will start to look at SPY to the downside if that does occur. But I do think the biggest level to watch this week is going to be 758 to the upside. I it would be very important for SPY to break past that and it'll be the main level to watch for going into Monday morning here. And then looking at the earnings lineup for this week, it is relatively clear, but Broadcom, ticker symbol AVGO, will report earnings on Wednesday after close. This is the seventh heaviest weighted company in the S&P 500. So, look out for that. Looking at the economic lineup, it's mostly clear. Uh but on Friday, we do have some pretty important data set to release. um one hour before open which will be the unemployment report. So look out for that. Besides that, it's a mostly clear week. So Tom, let's get right into the good stuff which are some setups and predictions. A stock that is close on my radar is ticker symbol CRM and to the upside. We have been seeing a rotation into software companies recently and CRM has been a great beneficiary of that. On Friday, it rose by 8.5% and it's still down roughly 50% from all-time highs. A lot of investors have sold out of software companies like CRM over the past year as they were concerned that AI would massively disrupt their business. A lot of these stocks have sold off to the point where maybe the selling was overdone. I think CRM is at a good point where it's offering a good riskreward playing it to the upside and I see opportunity in a shorter term sense while this bullish momentum is here. But I think it could also present opportunity in a longer term buy the dip sense as well as investors may have uh sold out of this uh stock and other stocks like it um a little bit too much. We'll see. Yeah, a lot of the software companies are beaten down in the short term and whenever I look at CRM, they had actually been on a pretty bad downtrend, but with Friday's move, they actually broke through that downtrend. So, uh, I'm definitely going to be watching it very closely. I've been seeing a lot of software stocks move just like this off of these downtrends. And with my first play, I'm looking at Microsoft yet again. I actually called Microsoft out on Thursday's video and we saw that amazing rip on Friday and we did get through the resistance zone around 430 to 433. That was a fantastic move. And a lot of people are probably saying, "Well, Tom, isn't Microsoft now overbought in the short term." And yes, I will say over the past couple days it does seem overbought. But like Mike said, even with CRM, as you zoom out on some of these software companies, they've been so beaten down over the past year to two years that we are starting to see some buy the dip opportunities come in. And a lot of these companies had a have a lot of room back to the upside. There's actually a massive gap on the Microsoft chart where it gapped down back at the end of January. If we do fill this gap to the upside, we'll essentially be rising to around 478 to 480. That is a massive level on Microsoft and we're really not that far off. Only 30 points and Microsoft pretty much ripped 20 points on Friday. So, it's a it's definitely a big mover right now and it has a lot of news like we've already talked about, you know, with the uh Nvidia chips going into Windows PCs along with the event this week. There's going to be a lot going on for Microsoft. So, keep it on the radar. I would not be surprised if it gapped up early on this Monday morning. And if it does gap up, make sure that it continues at open. Do not get caught in one of those situations where the stock opens up really high and then moves down at open. If that does happen, look for a gap fill opportunity. If we do see a big gap Monday morning, you know, buying up the gap whenever it starts to touch as support could be the main way to go.

[00:10:51]Keep it close on watch. Another stock that is close on the radar is XLE and it's to the upside. If the US and Iran get oil flowing through the straight again, then that can make oil prices fall. But it doesn't appear to be that uh these two countries are coming close to a deal at the moment and I think it's going to be a lot harder in practice. Uh so basically I think US oil companies still have a lot to benefit and countries are still going to have to refill their strategic petroleum reserves as well. So like even when this rate does open, there is going to be a lot of demand for oil in the future. XLE is on my bullish radar uh especially in a medium-term sense like over these next few months. But if we do see the US Iran deal start to fall apart, that can immediately benefit XLE as well. Uh either way, it's close on the radar.

[00:11:47]>> Yeah, XLE has been downtrending in the short term. I'll be watching it closely as it approaches some key zones of support to see if we can start to get a bounce back up or not. Of course, it will probably be news driven if we do see it. Um, but with my next play, I'm actually looking at another um another tech player or another big chip stock and that is actually Intel. Intel in the short term has been doing fantastic as a lot of people know. There's been a lot going on with the US government uh taking a stake in Intel along with a lot of good deals that they've been getting into. Well, something that I saw Friday is that Intel actually closed down over 5%. And I actually think that the Nvidia and Microsoft deal could impact Intel in a negative way as other companies start to switch from using Intel processors and going with Nvidia's more. Laptop giants like Dell are even in talks to start using the new Nvidia chips in laptops with and they actually have a different architecture than Intel's chips as well. And I think that this could pose a real threat to Intel in the short term. Now, of course, Intel could pivot and some news could come out and they could start ripping again. But in the short term, I am going to be watching for a bit of a hit as competition starts to take hold. In the immediate short term, I would love to see them pull back under their low around the end of the day right around 11350. If I see that level break down this week, I will be watching for a much larger pullback with Intel. And the reason why I called out 11350 is it was actually the low on May 21st and it's a major zone of support. So, if that breaks down, I will actually look for a pullback all the way down to the recent peak around 10250 and then even $100. I think that the move could end up being pretty large to the downside, especially given how much Intel has ripped. They've become extremely overextended and a little bit of bad news could seem a lot worse in the short term. Very nice.

[00:13:36]Yeah, let's keep it close on the radar and let's also jump right into today's momentum plays. With the first one, we have Unusual Machines, ticker symbol, to the upside. Unusual machines continued again on Friday, ended up closing up 7.3%, but it's sitting right around key resistance. If it can break out above 3235, watch it to the upside.

[00:13:58]>> With the next one, we have Service Now, ticker symbol NOW, also to the upside.

[00:14:03]Another software stock that is on fire.

[00:14:06]They closed up over 14% Friday. If they can break 130, watch NO to the upside as well.

[00:14:13]>> And then with the last one, we have Nvidita Semiconductor, ticker symbol NVTs, to the downside.

[00:14:18]>> If Nvidas breaks down under $26 even, watch them down. They sold off pretty hard on Friday.

[00:14:24]>> All right, so we have these three stocks on the radar for potential continuations tomorrow if and only if they break through the levels listed. These stocks are volatile, so always protect yourself and focus on making smart, disciplined trading decisions above all else. If you need any help with that, check out all the free information in the Stocked Up Discord group. The link for that is in the description down below. Let's also jump right into today's $1.8 million big money trade. Today we are looking at ticker symbol BS.

[00:14:57]The trader here bought the 55 strike call options that expire very soon on June 18th of 2026. The trader here is risking 1.825 million to make $2.175 million. The trader here also shorted the 63 strike call options which makes this a call debit spread. Basically, they are betting that the stock will go up. As we look at this stock, it had a pretty nice day on Friday, and this company is Dutch Bros. It's a fast growing operator and franchiser of drive-thru coffee shops across the US.

[00:15:34]Uh again, this is a relatively short-term uh trade horizon as it expires on June 18th. The stock has done pretty well recently, and it's up roughly 20% since May 13th. There hasn't been any huge news since then, but the company announced that it will participate in William Blair's 46th annual growth stock conference in Chicago. The company will host a fireside chat on Tuesday, June 2nd at 2 p.m. Central time, and will be meeting with institutional investors throughout the day, which can be an impactful future event for the stock and trade.

[00:16:11]Look at this company on the daily chart.

[00:16:14]This is one of the largest supports that I've seen in a while. This company over the past couple years has bounced off of this support like five times. And in the shorter term, in 2026 alone, it's like four bounces. So, I'm going to be watching this very closely. The one negative that I do see with this potential setup right now is that it's stuck in a pretty big channel. The one problem is that it's kind of at the top end of the channel right now. If we do end up seeing it like touch resistance and trade into the middle of the channel, it will end up being a trade that you're going to have to hold for a little while. But the problem is that this trade does not have time to it.

[00:16:48]It's an extremely short-term trade and it seems like they're expecting this to move over the next couple of weeks. So, what I'm thinking here is that the big money trader here is looking for a breakout through this resistance. And that could definitely happen. you know, we've been stuck down in this lower range for a while, and it recently just tested the resistance uh back on May 6th, so really not too long ago at all, and it's already right back to where it was. So, I'll be watching it closely. I think it's a fairly risky trade at resistance, but other than that, uh you know, the big money trader here put quite a bit in here. $1.8 million on such a short-term trade is fairly risky.

[00:17:25]Keep in mind that uh going with the call debit spread will be immensely safer in this scenario than trading it naked.

[00:17:32]>> Let's keep it close on the radar. The expiration is coming up soon, so it should be a very interesting stock. Uh but if you're also into short-term trading, check out that first link in the description and comments down below to get in on the trading floor for the lowest price possible on Friday. There was some pretty nice action with Surgebot as the Microsoft call options moved up by 209%, the IBM call options by 197%, the Palunteer call options by 163%, the AVGO call options by 124%. The list goes on and on. And of course, there were a handful of duds as well.

[00:18:06]And on Thursday, it was especially crazy as the Palunteer calls moved up by 535% with Microsoft at 100 at 283% and so on.

[00:18:15]Uh, the Stocked Up Trading Floor gives you full access to our army of custom trading bots, weekly live events. You can chat with Tom and myself all day long and access basically everything you could need for short-term trading and all the future things we're adding as well. Uh, if this interests you, use coupon code auto trends to get the yearly price at the lowest price possible. If you guys are new to the channel, don't forget to subscribe. We post brand new videos like this for every single trading day. It takes a long time to make these videos and if you subscribe, you'll get them recommended to you more often. And last but not least, huge shout out to today's member of the day, Dizzy Spider, who said, "I love this country. Wild ride today and posted some uh beautiful gains." So, huge shout out to you, Dizzy Spider. Keep up the great work going forward. And again, if you guys are into short-term trading, use coupon code auto trends to join the trading floor at the lowest price possible. Thank you guys so much for watching and let's crush it in the market this week.