Why are Armenia's elections being so keenly watched abroad? | Inside Story

Ajouté : 2026-06-08

[00:00:01]Armenia goes to the polls. Voters will choose between Prime Minister Nicl Passion, backed by Donald Trump, and parties that want close ties with Russia. So why are these parliamentary elections being so closely watched in Brussels, Moscow, and Washington? This is Inside Story.

[00:00:36]Hello, welcome to the program. I'm Anna Burns Francis. All politics is local, they say, but sometimes not quite. In Sunday's parliamentary elections in Armenia, geopolitical rather than local issues are taking center stage. The former Soviet nation has strong links with Russia, its biggest export market and energy supplier. But relations are strained as Prime Minister Nicl Pashanyan seeks closer ties with the EU and the West. Endorsed by Donald Trump last month, the PM hosted a summit of EU and other leaders. But President Vladimir Putin has told Pashard he must choose between Russia and the EU. The outcome of the elections could have a big influence on that as many opposition parties support closer links to Russia.

[00:01:21]So why are Armenia's elections of such international interest? We'll discuss that with our guests shortly. But first, this report from Imran Urkan.

[00:01:31]In Armenia, parliamentary elections are offering voters a choice between two very different geopolitical camps. On one hand, a push towards EU support and integration. on the other maintaining ties with Russia. Prime Minister Nicole Pashanyan has tried to strike a balance.

[00:01:50]Last year, Parliament passed law to launch a process of joining the EU and in May, Pashanyan hosted a summit with EU leaders and told them Armenia is not an ally of Russia when it comes to the Ukraine war. That comment garnered a strong response from Russian President Vladimir Putin who threatened measures on Yeravan.

[00:02:12]Moscow has considerable influence over Armenia.

[00:02:15]>> It is part of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union which encourages the free movement of goods and services in the region.

[00:02:22]Russia also supplies Armenia with more than 82% of its natural gas tax-free and at a discount rate below market prices.

[00:02:30]And Armenia exports about 90% of its fruit, vegetables, and flowers to Russia. It also hosts a Russian military base.

[00:02:40]Another election issue is the aftermath of the long-running dispute over Nagaro Carabach which dates back to the end of the USSR.

[00:02:49]It had been internationally recognized as part of Azerbaian which took full control of the territory in 2023 after a series of conflicts.

[00:03:01]>> Supporters of Pashanyan say he has the country on the right trajectory.

[00:03:06]I really like how Armenia has been growing right before our eyes. I've worked in different places and have seen a great deal, including different presidents and the previous prime minister. I very much like the actions of our current prime minister.

[00:03:20]>> But others say more work needs to be done.

[00:03:27]>> I even voted for Nicole Pashan. I believed in him. But today we see how young people are living. the poverty. I don't even want to talk about what young people and students are using in schools. The stealing is much greater and the corruption has not ended. They can't say there is no corruption.

[00:03:45]But whatever the outcome, the results of Sunday's vote will be closely watched from Washington, Moscow, and Brussels.

[00:03:53]Imran Lan, Al Jazer for Inside Story.

[00:04:02]>> Right. For more, let's bring in our guests now from Uravan. And we are joined by Richard Gerugosian, director of regional studies, Think Center think tank. In New York is Kenneth Roth, visiting professor at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. And all the way from London is Chris Wafer, chief executive officer of Micro Advisory. Thank you all gentlemen for joining me. Richard, I'll start with you. What's fueling the interest around this election? What are the crucial issues to the people of Armenia this time round?

[00:04:30]Well, of course, there's an underlying geopolitical context as we've already pointed out, but actually this election is pivotal from a local perspective for two other reasons. First and foremost, this is a referendum on policy on the direction of the country in terms of sustaining the momentum of positive diplomatic engagement, normalization with its neighbors. And secondly, this is a pivotal election for the future of democratization in Armenia, especially after some worrying signs and concerns.

[00:05:09]Yet, we do expect Armenia to achieve its third back-to back genuinely free and fair election tomorrow.

[00:05:18]>> Kenneth, can I ask you, Richard used the phrase talked about propelling forward off the back of what has been happening in Armenia. Have the previous promises though made to the Armenian people been fulfilled?

[00:05:33]>> Well, the Nicole Pashingan, the the current prime minister, you know, has um proposed quite different policies for Armenia in terms of peace with Azerban and Turkey and a movement, you know, somewhat away from Russia toward the European Union. Um, my concern I I recently visited Armenia as part of a a pre-election observation mission and our concern is that while Pashinan, you know, has a case to be made for why people should vote for him, he's ahead in the polls, he is cracking down on the opposition. He has arrested all sorts of opposition politicians and voices, you know, tried to deploy state resources to tip the electoral playing field um in his direction. And all of this is bad for Armenia's democracy. So I was there, you know, not to take positions among the competing candidates, but rather to push for a free and fair election. You would think that Pashinan would be confident enough to just, you know, go to the polls and make his case and let the people decide, but he isn't. He's using all kinds of dirty tricks. And so, you know, while his policies, you know, you can make a case that this is good for Armenia, his actions in terms of undermining democracy are bad for Armenia's democracy. It's pushing the country in a more autocratic direction.

[00:06:55]>> I want to talk more about what's driving that in a moment. But Chris, it does raise the question, do you then believe the people of Armenia are headed into free and fair elections?

[00:07:06]>> Um, generally yes. I mean obviously as the previous speaker said there there has been you know a crackdown on any opposition voices. Um the pashinian's government has certainly made it very difficult uh for any any opposition kind of funding or or or political voices or or any kind of uh people who kind of are not if you like aligned with uh with with his party. Um so but in general I think the sense is that the elections are fair are are free but it's going to be very tight. Uh there is pesinian really needs to get a two-thirds majority if he wants to pursue uh you know the constitutional changes and to move the country towards Europe and the opinion polls show a significant amount of people who are either unwilling to say what their voting preference will be when they're asked or they are simply undecided. So it's very very open uh I think in terms of what the result will be >> when we look at that shift to where people might be looking to put their vote. Richard Pashan has earmarked this as an election focused on independence and peace. Do you think that's a a fair or an accurate or realistic representation of the core issue at hand?

[00:08:18]Well, it's actually a very effective and winning political message because the incumbent government can justifiably point out they have moved the country closer to peace than ever before and greatly reduced the risk of renewed hostilities with its neighbors. At the same time, the government is likely to be reelected with a working majority, well short of a 2/3 majority as Chris mentioned. But I do want to highlight what Ken said. There has been serious concern where the government has too often given into the temptation to take shortcuts to cut corners in governance.

[00:09:01]What I would add, however, is the opposition is very much worse. And for most undecided voters, they'll vote for the government as the lesser of two evils as well as an opposition that is deeply discredited and consistently unpopular in today's Armenia.

[00:09:22]>> Kenneth, is it a case of better the devil, you know?

[00:09:25]>> Well, I mean, first of all, the opposition isn't in power, so you know, they me may well be worse if they get in power. Um, but they're not. You know, the the party in power now is civil contract. you know, Pashin's party and it is behaving in an autocratic manner.

[00:09:40]And you know, I think that while you know, this argument, oh, the I'm the peace candidate is a powerful argument, you know, the other side is saying, well, you know, you lost Negrono Carabach, you know, on your watch. You know, now you're trying to make a virtue of necessity by making peace with Azarbjan and Turkey, but that's because you completely lost. And so, you know, that's a powerful argument. about 120,000 refugees from Negorno Carbach want back. Azar Bjan is holding political prisoners from Negrono Cararbach. Pashin just doesn't talk about these issues. And so, you know, there is an argument on the other side.

[00:10:14]I mean, as I say, I don't take positions here. I think, you know, a lot of the opposition is pro-Russian, which, you know, has its own set of problems. Pinan is saying we want to move closer to the European Union. Membership is, you know, nowhere near, but things like um free visa access and the like could be. So, it's it's an attractive message. I I'm not denying that. It's just that Pashin didn't have the self-confidence to make that case to the public without cheating. And and you know, the fairness of an election is not just are the votes counted on election day. I don't anticipate big problems there with a fair count. A fairness of an election has to look at the campaign period. And if opposition voices are silenced, if opposition leaders are imprisoned, that is a tilted playing field. That's not a free and fair electoral context.

[00:11:03]>> It's not just opposition voices. There are also voices in support of Passion.

[00:11:08]Chris, one of them, the US President Donald Trump. Were you surprised by him putting his weight behind the incumbent and also what do you think the US has to gain from taking a position here?

[00:11:20]>> Uh, excuse me. No, it's not a surprise that the US supports Bashin because uh of course the as Ken mentioned, the opposition generally is is regarded as being kind of pro-Russian uh and would move the country kind of closer uh to to Moscow. So the US obviously wants to, you know, to break or to continue, I suppose, weakening Moscow's influence in the caucuses. Um and and Armenia basically is is the last country that Russia can claim if you like to have some you know influence with or or presence in. It has a military base there. The uh which it doesn't have of course in the other two countries Armenia is a member of the Eurasia Economic Union which gives it free trade access to the Russian market as well as the other member states. Um so uh the US and and Europe have been partly targeting Armenia in order to continue weakening Russia's position but also you know it's part of the broader strategy from Washington. The US has uh you know and and both Europe and US have been increasing their kind of you know their their activities and their investment across uh the caucuses. uh there are some very significant projects for example the the so-called middle transport corridor which is uh rail link connecting Europe and China that bypasses Russia it goes through Georgia and uh you know Azerbaijan across the Caspian um and there's also of course significant hydrocarbon resources particularly in Azerbaijan which is going to Europe the US has uh you know ramped up its interest in the region uh last year of course we had the summit or the meeting between President Aliaf and Prime Minister Pashini and with President Trump in the US and and the US continues to focus its efforts on investment and what it refers to as the trip corridor. This is the uh previously known as the Zenagor corridor which is the strip of land connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey along the Armenian Iranian border and the US wants to develop this as a another transport route uh and wants US investors to have a significant role in it. So for those reasons uh the US definitely wants Prime Minister Pesinian to win and win well. M Richard, can I ask there? Chris brought up this growing closeness of the relationship with Europe and we have seen certainly even some recent events being held in Armenia, European leaders visiting and the like. Who's doing the wooing? Is it Armenia to the EU or does Europe really want to draw Armenia in?

[00:14:02]>> Well, to be fair, part of the problem is EU engagement based on a different agenda than Armenia's national interest.

[00:14:11]In other words, many in the European Union welcome Armenia as the new Georgia, the new darling of the West in terms of the leading democracy in the South Caucuses. And any country that pushes back against Russia after its failed invasion of Ukraine takes on added significance. But I would criticize, for example, the French president for being more pro- Armenian than the Armenians. It's not always helpful. And at the same time, I do think this embrace of the West loses sight of our nuanced geopolitical position. But I do want to add, as an American who moved to Armenia, I'm very skeptical about the US commitment and the national interest of the US. It's the European Union that is more effective in terms of engaging in Armenian reform and it's also less provocative to Russia over the longer term.

[00:15:12]>> Kenneth, that is an issue, isn't it?

[00:15:13]Being about being provocative to Russia and we have seen that the speaker uh rather the vice president of Armenia's parliament saying Russia has been a close partner for us. We want that to continue. What do you read that as meaning for Armenia?

[00:15:29]Well, Armenia is economically very dependent on Russia. There's no question about that. And Putin is already using, you know, economic threats, economic retaliation to try to affect the vote.

[00:15:41]You know, my problem has been, you know, both the United States and European governments have been much more concerned with the geopolitical contest with Russia than they have been with preserving Armenia's democracy. Now, this is no surprise from Trump. I mean, you know, Trump never sees an autocratically inclined president whom he doesn't like. You know, you don't look to Trump to defend democracy when he's trying to undermine it in the United States. But with the European Union, I did expect more. Um, it was previously mentioned the so-called European political community, which is something set up by French President Mron after Putin's invasion of Ukraine to try to, you know, bolster democracy in opposing Russia. And the European political community met in Yuraban, Armenia's capital, you know, just a month ago. This was a virtual endorsement of Pashinan. It was all about the need to fend off Russian influence. nothing about how Pashinan was undermining Armenia's democracy. The next day, the European Union had a summit with Pashinan. Again, all about Russia. Nothing about what Pashinan is doing for democracy. And so, what we see, you know, with European governments that should know better. They are, you know, supposedly protecting Armenia's democracy from Russian efforts to undermine it, but utterly ignoring Pashinan's own efforts to undermine Armenia's democracy. This is a very one-dimensional view of the problem. It it undermines the credibility of the European Union. It makes, you know, its defense of democracy purely geopolitical. You know, they do it when it's convenient, not when it isn't. But it really also is not good for Armenia because, you know, I think we all assume Pashin is going to win. The only question is by how much. But he's essentially had a European endorsement of his autocratic tendencies. That bodess very poorly for Armenia's democratic future. Chris, it begs the question then, how concerned are you about allegations of any kind of outside influence?

[00:17:44]>> Um, yeah, look, I I think just went back to what Ken said about Europe and the US, we we've seen this we are we are seeing this kind of I suppose you could almost call it hypocritical approach from the west uh in Central Asia as well as the Caucuses. Uh because countries in the region are very useful for both Europe and the US. they in central Asia of course are a big source of uranium and critical minerals um the caucuses as I mentioned the transport links um and and kind of weakening Russia's position it basically means that there has been zero criticism of kind of you know uh political suppression uh across the entire caucuses and central Asian region um you know the the laws that have been passed in several countries for example you know anti LGBT laws etc which would normally you know bring you know howls of protests from Brussels and previously from the US have been passed across the region without any comment whatsoever from either Brussels or Washington because they you know they want to work with the countries a to reduce Moscow continue to reduce Moscow's influence and b because they want access strategically either transport links or or critical minerals. So in that sense you know the there there may be uh you know kind of question marks over the the vote tomorrow but there'll be if pinian wins there will be zero criticism from Brussels or Washington in the same way that there was very heavy criticism against the election results in Georgia but that won't happen in Armenia because it's too important to to the west but otherwise sorry to answer your question about interference um the the government has been kind of highlighting ing the risk of interference, particularly of course focusing on Russia. Uh for example, people who are arriving now on flights from Moscow are being given a flyer or or a handout at the airport saying that it is, you know, pointing out that if they come to Armenia to to vote and are being paid by a foreign government I Russia, then it is a criminal offense and they will be prosecuted. So the government is really kind of uh you know focusing on on the threat of interference particularly from Russia and and they're you know they're taking action against it. But >> Richard at the two points there that I want to pick up on that Chris made.

[00:20:09]First was about what EU and and what the West wants and what they might get over the long term could be entirely different to what's realistically achievable in the short term. Perhaps illustrated by that last point, Armenia seems to be pushing back against this Russian influence and yet it has this sort of symbiotic relationship of sorts.

[00:20:27]It relies on Russia. It benefits from Russia and yet that reliance means it realistically has no chance of escaping Russia, at least in the short term.

[00:20:37]>> Well, Armenia's position regarding Russia is both more than it seems and less than it seems. In terms of a new strategy by this Armenian government, much more transactional in its approach with Russia, I would categorize it as passive aggressive. It's a much more practical, pragmatic balancing act. For example, Armenia, despite deepening ties with the EU, remains committed to staying a member of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union. It has frozen its contributions to Russia's collective security treaty organization yet has not withdrawn from it. So it's literally a balancing act and I think it's based on a realistic post-war assessment of this new reality. Nevertheless, what we do see is genuine demonstrable diplomatic progress between Armenia and Azarbajan, Armenia and Turkey without any third party involvement. Neither the West nor Russia is a player or facilitator in that process. So I do think the outlook for the day after the election is much more significant, much more interesting, but also much more unpredictable.

[00:22:02]>> Transactional politics, Kenneth, which seems to be the way a lot of the world is going. Can a closer relationship with Western Europe ever replace Armenia's relationship at the moment with Russia?

[00:22:14]>> I mean, at the moment, no. At the moment, Armenia is very economically dependent on on Russia. You know, I think the longer term hope is that, you know, first of all, if there is peace with Turkey, you know, that's a big market right next door, that could play a significant role. Um, obviously, if they're closer economic ties to the European Union, particularly, you know, reduction of tariffs and the like, that could be enormously important. So, you know, there are potential long-term benefits. Uh, the question is how to get through this transitional period. I mean, Putin is already shutting down imports of certain um Armenian vegetables and the like. He's he's, you know, he's he's turning the screws. He's trying to influence the election that seems to be backfiring if anything. I mean, I I don't think Armenian people are happy to receive that kind of overt pressure from Putin. And of course, what Putin is offering, which is, you know, autocracy, dominance by the Kremlin, you know, this is not an attractive vision.

[00:23:10]Um the you know the opposition in Armenia does talk about Negrono Carbach.

[00:23:16]The idea of winning it back is a pipe dream. I mean the idea that Pesinan is trying to make peace with Azarbjan is making a virtue of necessity. Um Azarbjan is you know far more powerful militarily at this point and it was only Russia's um defensive effort that protected Negorno Carbach for so long.

[00:23:33]But with Putin preoccupied in Ukraine, the Yazar Bjanis just overran Norno Carbach fairly easily. So, you know, I think that there is quite a bit to be made for Pashin's shift. He just seems to be afraid to make that case openly to the Armenian people and to let them freely choose. He's trying to tilt the electoral playing field. And you know, as I said, what's disappointing is, you know, the European Union seems not capable of on the one hand saying, "We like Pashin's pro-Uropean policies, but we also don't like his efforts to undermine democracy." You know, that would have been a principled approach.

[00:24:10]Um, it wouldn't do that. The European Union was just as transactional, just as pragmatic, just as unprincipled as Pashenyan seems to be. So, you know, that's what's been really disappointing here. You know, the European Union in Ukraine is fighting not only to fend off Russia, but also to protect Ukraine's democracy. In Armenia, all it's doing is fending off Russia. It's letting Armenia's democracy be undermined by Armenia's own leader.

[00:24:37]>> Chris, I I'll come to you. I want to try and get Richard in once more before the end of the show. So what is the issue that you feel Armenians then given that there is so much of geopolitical influence or interest in this election?

[00:24:52]What will Armenians be looking for in respect of how they are treated regionally? Do you think Chris?

[00:24:59]Yeah, I think that's the uh you know the issue obviously for Armenians is to some extent it's a big leap of faith um you know uh if you like moving away from from Russia and assuming that Europe and the US will fill that void there there is an enormous kind of you know short-term risk that the the country faces uh 80% of the gas that it uses comes from Russia uh Armenia pays less than onethird of the price uh that Europe pays for gas. Uh it would cost the country about an additional 7 or $800 million a year to import gas uh presumably from neighboring Azarbaijan.

[00:25:42]Uh you know if it loses the Russian gas 36% of foreign trade turnover is directly with Russia and another 15% uh which is with the United Arab Emirates is indirectly linked to Russia. The Armenia imports rough diamonds from Russia. It has a very big jewelry industry. Uh and then the end product it makes from the diamond and gold it imports from Russia goes to the UAE. So losing kind of those materials and access to cheap energy uh which President Putin said would happen very quickly uh then you know that could certainly uh have a a very significant negative impact on the economy for several years even if Armenia is then able to as Richard said engage with with Turkey uh which is a big market next door and if we start to see some investment picking up from Europe and the US there will be a several year period of a lot of economic pain that the country uh will face if the relationship with Russia breaks down.

[00:26:45]>> Gentlemen, I'm afraid that's all we have time for. Thank you very much for your insight and your thoughts. Richard Gerosen, director of the regional studies center think tank from New York.

[00:26:53]Joining us, Kenneth Roth, visiting professor at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. And from London, Chris Wafer, chief executive officer of macro advisory.

[00:27:04]And thank you too for watching. You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website eljazer.com.

[00:27:10]And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. That's facebook.com/j inside story. You can also join the conversation on X. Our handle is AJ inside story. For now, that's it from me, Anna Burns, Francis, and the team here. Al Jazer's coverage continues in a moment. Stay tuned.