5/5/26 Forecast Breakdown. Two chances for severe weather.

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, this is Will from Nashville Severe Weather. Today is Tuesday, May the 5th. Let's break down the forecast. So, one of the first things that I'm going to show you is the HR model for this afternoon. So, we are inside of a slight risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. And this is the uh loop of uh what we think or what the HR thinks the radar is going to look like tonight.

[00:00:27]So this is 8 9 10 11 12. So overnight showers and thunderstorms is the real message here. Periodic showers this evening and then more uh steady showers, thunderstorms, more robust storms overnight. Um that severe threat is pretty low, but it's not zero. So let's dive in and talk about that. Uh we are just on the edge of this marginal risk and the the main thing that we're talking about tonight is winds uh straight line winds. So winds in excess of 65 miles an hour are possible. Hail the size of a quarter and there's a lowend tornado threat.

[00:01:10]U so again here is what that uh convective outlook looks like and here is the tornado outlook. So 2% for tonight, a 5% chance of damaging straight line wind.

[00:01:26]And we are not, fortunately, we are not included in a severe hail outlook. That doesn't mean hail's not going to happen.

[00:01:33]It could, but we're not currently outlooked for it.

[00:01:38]Now, let's move in and talk about Wednesday because we do have two threats for severe weather this week. So, this is Wednesday. Again, a marginal risk, but you can see the center of that is located pretty far to the south, and we expect most of the real heavy weather to stay south. This on Wednesday is a conditional risk. That means if all the parameters don't line up, there won't be much of a severe threat. So, it matters how much convective activity we have tonight and how much the atmosphere is able to recover tomorrow.

[00:02:13]Here's our severe wind outlook for tomorrow, another 5%.

[00:02:19]And here is the HR's guess at 18Z. The the 18Z run today uh uh for Wednesday.

[00:02:30]So, this loop begins at noon on Wednesday and runs through 1:00 a.m. I'm sorry, 100 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. And so, you can see through the evening, periodic showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Um, I don't think that it's going to rain out the Bruno Mars concert, but I do think you're going to want to have a rain poncho. Um, I think the the thing we really need to worry about is lightning and and is there lightning close enough to the stadium that things get shut down.

[00:03:04]So, that's our forecast for today.

[00:03:06]Thanks a bunch. Make sure you follow us on nashville severe weather.com for the latest blog and on socials nashsever.

[00:03:14]Have a great one.