Models Show Arctic Air Settling Over The U.S... Extremely Rare Pattern Ahead

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]In today's video, we're going to be diving into the upcoming pattern. Taking a look here at an extremely active period of storminess, especially along the deeper south and eastern states, which is just so wonderful and very much so needed. We do also have cooler air that is, I would say, on the way, but it honestly has been here and it is here to stay for quite a while. We're going to talk more about how long that could last. It could lead to a pretty historically cold month of May overall when we're looking back at it. And I can't believe we're already at May 8th.

[00:00:34]We're already like over a week into May and June's going to be here before we know it. And then you're halfway through the year and it's just I don't know.

[00:00:41]Every year it gets faster and faster. I think that's everybody's life experience. So, it's just crazy. But yeah, this year is just flying by for me at least. Friday the 8th today as we look at the evening because it's when this video comes out and we can see that there is some storminess.

[00:00:56]I would say it's across all this area, but it's more so kind of like a boomerang around these areas. We see more so like the Gulf States and deeper south and then it does horseshoe around into the plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and even into the mid-Atlantic there.

[00:01:11]And that is actually the main pocket of storminess. There is a few showers here across the Rockies and Northwest.

[00:01:17]Maybe a few in the northeast here, but nothing too crazy. Uh, your jetream is more so a ridge in the west. Not surprising whatsoever. And then more cold in the east as a whole. As we take a look at tomorrow afternoon on Saturday, May 9th here, we can see again deep south. Then up the east coast here, really looking active as far as uh showers, thunderstorms, overall rainfall. So, we get another round of that actually moving in for parts of tomorrow. uh can't be ruled out. It is more scattered in certain areas. Uh it's certainly possible throughout the day at any point that we could see some rainfall. Sunday, May 10th here, what we're seeing is a continuation kind of ridge and trough pattern. Uh a lot of activity here at the lower end of that jetream. So we see areas south of there for the southern plains, deep south, southeast, and kind of up the east coast. This is just very very similar to the like multiple days before it. We do see within that trough uh we do see uh quite a bit of snow and rain showers depending on your exact location happening here around the Great Lakes, Canada, even Eastern Canada and they're seeing a lot of those types of impacts moving towards Monday here on May 11th.

[00:02:30]What we see is another day where we see deep south southeast kind of into the southern mid-Atlantic the best shot of rainfall. This does look overall more showery to me. I think the best chance of thunderstorms is going to be the further south areas. We'll have to see as we get a little bit closer. I could see general thunderstorms being a threat overall. Definitely something uh that could occur. Uh not guaranteed by any means to happen though. Um might be more so just solid rainfall. And I mean the temperatures are cooler to say the least. We're looking at a lot of 60s throughout these areas, maybe low 70s for a lot of the uh deeper southeast.

[00:03:11]It's not highly highly warm or highly humid or anything to support a ton of thunderstorm activity. Now, as we head towards Tuesday, that kind of clears out, but the jetream hasn't changed really too much. We see a ridge in the west, trough in the east, bit of a storm system around for the Midwest and Great Lakes here. Looking at Wednesday here on the 13th, that does move more so into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast. Here we do see another system up there for the northwest that is bringing rain and snowfall. Depending on your exact location, of course, Thursday the 14th here, we do see the east coast, mid-Atlantic, northeast, southeast areas really seeing more activity return. So, you might be picking up on the theme that like every two to three days, we have a rain makingaking event moving in and that is huge. That is absolutely massive um for these areas that need it, especially the Carolinas and Virginia as I've been mentioning. uh really really beneficial at this point to the drought that they've been experiencing. Now, as we take a look at the northwest, we see a stronger low over areas of western Canada. This is bringing quite a bit of precipitation south of the US border as well. So, some precipitation continuing up there. Uh really the northwest is kind of the next area that we're going to be watching for potential drought, not because of what we've seen over the course of the winter in recent months, but actually because of that El Nino that we see forming. It is very very common for the Northwest to see a lack of precipitation in these El Nino events, especially strong ones. And they might be buckling up for very very minimal precipitation for the next year or so. So any little bit of precipitation they can get now is going to help a bit as we get later on into that El Nino through the summer, fall, and winter. Uh looking at Friday into Saturday, again, we see there is some thunderstorms developing here in the southern plains. We also have a low offshore of the east coast bringing some showers onshore as well. Not as dramatic with the trough in the east by this point. This is 8 days away. Uh but we do see that kind of backing off a little bit Saturday the 16th as well. We kind of regain some threats of plains and Midwest severe weather. So we took a bit of a break. It looks like maybe by the midpoint of the month we do see that activity begin to kind of return. We do see another kind of building of a western ridge, eastern trough here. Uh some precipitation along the deep south up into the mid-Atlantic and then into the northeast here. Uh so we're kind of coming full circle getting the activity back in these areas again. And we do warm up again in the east after the 20th on this model. And instantaneously we get a lot of rising motion in the plains, deep south and midwest. Uh due to this kind of like lift that we're getting a lot of Pacific flow with that, a lot of ability for Gulf humidity and warmth to move in. And we all of a sudden see a lot more severe weather threats. The second we get the warmer temperatures in the eastern half versus the western half, we see that significantly change actually. And as you can see, that just kind of blows up over the coming days after that until the end of the model run here on the 23rd of May.

[00:06:15]The GFS model, uh, as we kind of work our way through the upcoming pattern, it's more cold front, kind of deep south and east coast related. We're still cold in the east, warm in the west all the way until about the 16th, 17th where we do get that cold in the west, warm in the east pattern that again really just starts to spark up these thunderstorm and severe weather events across the middle of the nation pretty immediately uh here. here. So, we have good model agreement there. We get a return to the cold in the east, warm in the west.

[00:06:42]Again, more GF coast, east coast precipitation in that. We do see that kind of at the same time the European model wants to show it. Although, we don't really warm back up in the east too much. We stay colder in the east.

[00:06:53]So, this is a bit different after the 20th primarily. Time will tell which one ends up being correct, but there is really good agreement up until the 20th.

[00:07:01]So, that does help uh confidence through the next 12 days. Looking at the total precipitation, we can see that again the northwest gets some beneficial precipitation that down the road they're going to be thankful they got. Uh we do see areas east of the Rockies primarily just doing really good, especially the southern plains, Midwest, the deep south, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, parts of the southeast and northeast. We still have a dry pocket here honestly through parts of the southeast and deep south.

[00:07:28]Um so it's not completely fixed.

[00:07:30]Although keep in mind a lot of these areas just saw quite a bit of rainfall just a couple of days ago. Well yesterday actually. Um but we do still expect quite a bit more than we had seen a few days ago on these models. So definitely improving there. Temperature- wise we're colder right now in the east, warmer in the west. And that's going to stay that way for a while. Potent at times with that cold air uh at least till the 15th 16th here. And then we get some warmer air working its way in for like half a day or a day. We get cold air returning until a little bit after the 20th. And then we do find ourselves in this type of a look, which is certainly the opposite trough in the west, ridge in the east here around Friday the 27th. Uh and after that, it does look like colder air is on the move back towards the east as we're getting awfully close to June. Uh so just really insane to see how persistent this is on these models. Honestly, with this cold air in the east, looking at the storm prediction center outlooks, here's day one for Friday, May 8th, today. And we do have four general thunderstorm risk areas in the lighter greens, and that's where we expect general thunderstorms.

[00:08:32]Of course, we can see severe weather on these types of events. We don't really expect it. Uh so, heat every watch warning and advisory of course, just in case. We do see the two darker green areas, and that is where we expect an isolated uh severe thunderstorm of two to be located within those areas.

[00:08:47]Definitely something to look out for.

[00:08:49]And then as we look at the yellow area for Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas, that is your level two slight risk. And we do expect scattered about severe weather to take place today in those areas for Friday, May 8th, today. Day two here is quite similar. We have one general thunderstorm risk area though, and four marginal risk areas in the darker greens. We do have another slight risk day for Texas and Oklahoma tomorrow on Saturday the 9th.

[00:09:14]Day three, Sunday the 10th.

[00:09:17]What we see here is a general thunderstorm risk starting for the kind of southern plains through the southeast and mid-Atlantic for those lighter green areas. The darker green is your level one marginal risk. And we do see in the yellow Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana that level two slight risk for the third day in a row. If we begin to warm up, especially after next weekend, so as we're looking more towards the 15th and beyond, we should start to see an uptick in the severe weather department. But for now, we actually get a much needed break in at least the major major threats of severe weather, it appears, for the next few days. Time will tell. These are still slight risk days, though. So, they are still going to have dangerous severe weather within them. It's just we're not getting those huge widespread outbreak type days, thankfully. Uh, which for May, anything below that is basically a uh a breath of fresh air. So, with all that stuff being said, guys, be sure to subscribe. We upload every single day. You can even hit the bell icon for daily notifications when we upload so you never miss one. Be sure to like the video if you did enjoy it.