✨ Silver Rally To 70X! Buckle up, It's Going to Be Crazy! | Andy Schectman: Silver Price Forecast

本站添加: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Still really very huge that we have 300 million ounces open this close to first notice. So, I think what I take away from that is not a COMEX default, but if even half of the open interest actually decided to stand for delivery, you're talking uh 150 million ounces that would need to get sourced, right?

[00:00:21]The problem with that is that the registered silver category, that is the available silver backing the contracts available to deliver, is about 90 million ounces, right? So, you know, do the math. Uh if demand for delivery spikes, COMEX has two options, either drain registered inventory very fast, uh which would be I guess a very serious drawdown, or you have the price of immediacy increases, where you have forced incentives.

[00:00:51]Premiums will increase, uh exchange for physicals will increase, uh they will try and get people to roll the May uh by by incentivizing cash settlements with a premium, anything to keep metal uh metal anything to keep metal from from leaving. And um in my opinion, this is how the stress shows up. It's not in price, but it's in the delivery mechanisms and the delivery mechanics.

[00:01:18]And when the paper claims tower over the deliverable silver, I think the market um is calm until it isn't. And so, I think really what you're looking at is if even a portion of this stands for delivery, 20% stands for delivery, you're talking what um 60 million ounces of the 90 million.

[00:01:38]This is a problem.

[00:01:39]And um yeah, so I think that's to me the biggest issue right now. What I'm watching is we'll see what happens over the next 10 days.

[00:01:48]Uh at the same time, you still have this big $10 premium in Shanghai uh uh over the Western price. That this arbitrage is not going away. They're continuing to incentivize the the people here in the West who have the ability to buy cheap, 75 bucks or whatever, and sell it for 85 bucks in China. A lot of people say, "Well, what about the the um the difference in price is is the uh the tax. The No, the VAT tax, right? Not not tariffs, that there's a VAT tax, which is true, but it's not true, right?

[00:02:23]These are people who are not quite understanding the mechanics.

[00:02:27]The VAT tax is really there, but it is it's at the responsibility of the recipient, because when metal is delivered to Shanghai and you get that $10 arbitrage spread, you deliver 50 million oz at 10 bucks, you just made 500 million 500 million dollars.

[00:02:43]Uh that VAT tax is the responsibility of the recipient when it leaves when it leaves the Shanghai exchange.

[00:02:53]So, it's not paid until it leaves. If it stays there, there is no tax. So, in other words, that arbitrage is significant enough at this point for a $10 uh premium plus like a 13 or 14 or 15% tax, they don't care. They want the metal.

[00:03:10]And so, this is all, I think, uh noise. You have to see the big picture. You have to relax, see the big picture, understand it for what it truly truly is. And uh I I think yes, the volatility is enough to freak a lot of people out, but look, silver is the canary in the coal mine. And uh I think it's exposing a paper market built by banks um that that trade credit, not real metal. And real demand is showing up in Shanghai, and price discovery is shifting there. It's leaving London, it's leaving New York.

[00:03:46]And as long as the Western paper market stays disconnected to Shanghai like it is now, the physical silver will keep getting pulled out of the West and sent to where it's valued. And look, you look, the scary part, it's even getting tight in Shanghai with premium starting to blow out. And I And I think that's why to me the forwards and the futures are starting to feel almost undeliverable for a lot of people. This is why you're seeing backwardation where the market makers are having a hard time sourcing metal. They can't hedge easily.

[00:04:19]Their exit becomes the move, maybe, right? And And getting out uh and I And I think that's what you you see. Every time they smash the hell out of it, are they doing it to get out along with stand for delivery? Are they doing it to extricate themselves from these stupid short positions that used to work before this was all, I think, figured out where, you know, there are some very sophisticated traders around the globe, as I've been saying since 2020 on your show. The central banks have figured it out of the of the global south. Stand for delivery.

[00:04:53]Slowly. Don't do it too fast. Everyone says, "Why don't they just throw built trillions of dollars at it?" Cuz you'll kill yourself. You cut off your nose to spite your face. They've been masterful at draining the exchanges all around the world. And that slow, insidious, little by little part, people can't handle.

[00:05:10]It's too monotonous. It's too slow. It's It's a nothingburger.

[00:05:14]But as you can see, we're getting to the point where they're running out of available silver to deliver. And that to me is all you need to see on top of who's been standing for delivery every single month, month over month, over month, over month, over month for billions and billions and billions of dollars.

[00:05:29]They don't do this for the hell of it.

[00:05:33]What you see right now is just the volatility meant to throw the rest of us off the scent, off the trail, and join the highest influx into global US equities in history. They want the rest of us in the pen with the uh uh with the rest of the sheep. At the same time, you got uh billionaire David Einhorn. I don't know if you saw that article, but he thinks that that gold is well on of its way to becoming the world's ultimate reserve asset. This is a guy that runs one of the biggest hedge funds in the world, and he's saying that it's already replacing Treasuries as we've talked about for the last several years as central banks' reserve asset because the confidence in this system, both fiscal and macro outlook, is getting worse. And you know, when you look at at China uh telling their their banks to scale back Treasury exposure, it's a signal to me that the shift for gold is far greater than the shift is for um for Treasuries. They're selling them, and and we've seen almost 900 tons bought in 2025 by the central banks, which is huge. So, anyways, bottom line is with both gold and silver, the fundamentals couldn't be stronger, but the volatility, I think will continue to knock those who don't have strong fingertips off the back of the bull who wants to take as few of you along for the ride as possible. All bull markets do that. Just uh corroborating one of the things you mentioned about the reason why it's likely for gold to become a a world reserve asset is uh was we talked about this about 9 months ago when the World Gold Council came out with their 2025 survey, and you looked at the reason for all of the increases they they gave some the actual survey respondents at the central banks around the world put the reasons why, and uh volatility and trust uh of concerns were one of the the top concerns that they listed about uh volatile times and loss of trust in counterparty risk. So, I don't know if you had any comments further on that, but this Yeah, I saw that article. It said almost 80% said gold will be a higher share of reserves 5 years from now, all the central banks.

[00:07:53]And, you know, to me this isn't gold hype from the World Gold Council. This is fact that the world is hedging against the dollar system. And I think that's it is what is happening. When you look at at a, you know, you look at the amount There was an interesting article I read that talked about energy and infrastructure where China every year is building onto their energy infrastructure more so than our entire grid, which is 50, 60, 70 years old, whatever that is in a state of disrepair. The amount of energy you needed to to build electricity and to build it that will um uh work for AI and the and and, you know, the needs of of a globalize or of a country that is digital that that is using AI that is um looking at a system that is broken and in disrepair.

[00:08:49]You know, if we want to reshore manufacturing, if we want to be competitive, we need to start also by fixing the power supply and upgrading it. There is no way of doing that, but, you know, where's the money come from, right? So, we're already broken insolvent. So, we're going to print more money. Again, all of the things we're looking at going forward speak to the decline of the value of the US dollar. That's the bottom line as far as I'm concerned. The US dollar is in very, very big trouble ultimately because we don't have enough money to do things like build out the grid, to build out our infrastructure when China is doing that nonstop with their with their trade surplus and and we're not. And China has the energy advantage and more power and a newer grid and and we don't.

[00:09:40]And I think it's it's we're losing We're in a competition that we can't afford to lose. By rebuilding the grid, reshoring industry, uh keeping up with the AI tech costs, uh you know, involved with all this costs trillions. And where's it going to come from? It's going to come from abandoning the reserve status as we've talked about as I've screamed. Now, I might be the only one saying this over and over and over again that I really believe that we are are going to softly default on the reserve status in order to reshore things.

[00:10:15]Um and I've gone into that thesis enough. I don't need to go into it again, but I think the bottom line with all of this stuff is is stop looking at the at the noise at the at the daily moves. Look at the big picture. The big picture is that the dollar is going to be the what is going to be sacrificed in order to compete with the rest of the world, whether it be to reshore, whether it be to rebuild the grid, whether it be to keep up with AI, whether it be to bring back manufacturing. And so gold and silver will be the benefactor of this.

[00:10:46]And when you see the amount of huge money over the last 8 16 17 months that has stood for delivery, that's all you need to see. Their positioning and they're continuing to do so. And if it's that important for the governments to do so, they won't make it easy for the rest of us. The volatility the counterintuitive rhetoric, all of this stuff that's all part of what they've done forever. And as the stakes get higher, so too will the volatility and the ability for those to hang on will be less and less and less.

[00:11:16]Don't let go. Don't sell your metal.

[00:11:19]It's all I can tell you is that uh this is not over, not even close. This is the volatility one would expect in a in a shift like this. And uh big money big uh big stakes, big volatility.