I Can't Believe What I'm Seeing: Resolution In Less Than 2 DAYS

Añadido: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Hello guys, welcome to the train parro.

[00:00:01]Today is Monday and we really need to focus on what's going on with the price action. After all, the vast majority of the channels out there are focusing on this potential incoming breakdown. They are calling for a double top rejection of $80,000. They call the 22nd of April a rejection and they're calling it again. And that is attracting an incredible amount of shorts piling in right at the double top. And listen, if we were to puke from here into $40,000, I will find it fantastic because I'm already in a short. But this video is again to make you aware of how many things are shifting under the hood that are going to put every single short at risk of liquidation. And in today's video, I've done a vast research that went already live in the morning in a live stream. I put out 14 bullish signals triggering not just on the daily time frame, but on the weekly and even one on the monthly. I'll go through all of them, and we're going to contrast them against the bearish signals. I'll break them all down for you guys, and I'll give you my final take. What am I expecting from this crazy confusing market at the moment? Guys, if you like this type of content, make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. Hit the notification bell to get notified every time I put out one of these videos.

[00:01:28]1,000 likes will be fantastic. On the video on Saturday, we got 6.2,000 views.

[00:01:34]That means that this video needs to get 900 likes. If we can achieve that, one of the comments down below is going to be selected and I will reply to your comment with a link giving you 12 months free access to my elite membership.

[00:01:51]That's going to give you access to more indicators that you can ever conquer in your lifetime. So, you're certainly will be on your way to becoming a datadriven trader just like myself. So, let's start analyzing and looking at the bearish signals. Some of them are actually now starting to come from CME gap consumption. You can see that we have put three four CME gaps to the downside.

[00:02:19]I call them bearish CME gaps because after we start the week, we tend to come back and consume them to close the gap.

[00:02:26]And we left one in here which was supposed to be a bearish CME gap and we did not consume it. longs were front running and taking us into a new trading range to the upside. We repeat the same mod operandis with this second CME gap.

[00:02:44]Then we form bullish CME gaps above the price and we straight away consume both of them that continue to show strength.

[00:02:53]But something is changing. Okay? And this is bearish. But I need you to stick with me on this. I'm going to say bearish things in this video. I'm going to say bullish things. Okay. And the difference, the main distinction is time frame. So what I'm starting to perceive in the market is that the weekly is starting to jump on board on some additional upside and that is going to surprise a lot of people because people are going to start seeing the bearish signs that I'm showing you. And these bearish signs most likely are just going to be a distraction because you have weekly strong signals coming in piling up for some additional upside that is going to attract shorts to put the risk right there, right there to get kicked in the middle of both. And once we get into number two, potentially number three. So far not number four, but if they continue to short this, if the funding rates continue to stay in the negative, we might need to even go into number four. So that's why each and every sign of weakness at the moment on the lower time frame might get ignored.

[00:04:11]So I want you to think about these bearish signs as if you are starting to pile them up and once they become heavy enough to make a case for a local top that is going to be the point where we get the rejection. So how are we how are we doing at the moment accumulating bearish signals? We're doing decently well but not enough to outpace the bullish ones that are incoming. So let's go back to the CME gap and this consumption of the CME gap that we produce this weekend is starting to become bearish. Notice that I say starting is not enough not enough certainly by itself to stop the upside.

[00:04:56]Okay, I want you to stick with me because this may sound confusing. Oh, he's saying I should buy, I should sell, it's going up, it's going down. Ignore the upside, the downside. start to think of it as an aggregation of events that start to increase the likelihood of certain outcome and this outcome at the point at this point in time is this liquidity. Okay, why you focus so much on liquidity because we do not have enough spot buying at the moment. This is open interest market. There is spot buying going on. There is micro strategy but it's literally doing tickles to the price. This ride in here is primarily driven by open interest. We have had a move from $19 billion in aggregated open interest all the way to 26. That's $7 billion in open interest is crazy. And yes guys, this is the first time that we consume a bearish CME gap. So out of the four number one, two, three, four, we just for the first time consume a bearish one. So far it's been always front run and we always consume the bullish ones only. So there is a shift.

[00:06:13]There is a small tiny shift but there is one and right there after producing a double top. So if this double top plays out in a bearish way, then the price action is going to visit and take the second CME gap that is located at 76,000.

[00:06:32]And I think that even if we go in here at the 76 and we hold that level, we still have the opportunity to go to the upside into 81 82 and do a bit more damage. Why liquidity? The same answer, liquidity. But it's not just liquidity.

[00:06:48]is liquidity together with general markets putting a new alltime high just today. Right? So that is not necessarily bringing a new alltime high for Bitcoin.

[00:06:59]That's a different beast. But it can help contain the moment where the price starts doing the actual puke. My line in the sand is 70. you lose 70 and then things are completely shifting in terms in terms of structure and we completely lose all this upside. Today I'm going to focus on the daily time frame what we have done over the weekend because there's also bullish signs coming from the daily and don't worry because at the end of the video I'm going to give you a wrap up of everything that is bullish, everything that is bearish and the full narrative behind what I'm doing. So on the daily we have the same signal that trigger at 98. The hive. The hive is an aggregation of bearish divergences coming from multiple oscillators at the same time. After it reaches a number of bearish divergences coming from all these different indicators, we trigger the signal and that is happening right there at 98 and it happened right here at 77 where people say that is a rejection. Well, the RSI has something very loud to say. That is not a rejection, guys. Look at this. We pinch that level of 67 and it will have turned into a full rejection. If I was seeing that we lose the first contention, which is 61 followed by losing the 54. At that point, we get a rejection because coming from 67 in the context of a liquidity hunt and then losing two levels down, well, that's a rejection. But so far we haven't lost a single level, not even the most bullish one. So there has been no progress whatsoever literally in disqualifying the full move to the upside. Period. And notice I'm short, right? I sound like crazily bullish to take a long in here. No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm They're not going to get me to take a long from here. It is a trap.

[00:08:59]It's just that the trap is going to come from higher price. What is the trap?

[00:09:04]Well, you go. You take all the shorts out of the way. Out of my way. You number two. Off. Three. Off you go. And once you are here, you're crazyly close to being in the grid. Which takes me to the next thing. Today is the first day since mid January that we enter neutral.

[00:09:27]We are no longer in fear, no longer in extreme fear. We are at 47 greed and fear index which apparently corresponds to neutral and not just that we just did that 47. So if you pay attention to detail this weekend we were at 46. So we are putting a slightly higher high back against the resistance after what everybody was shouting that is a rejection. Bull crap. We don't get a rejection until we lose at least one level. We have not lost a single thing, nothing. We came back into 31 and we went for a higher high on the greed and fear index. So this is not just that, but I'm going to give you one more thing, one more data point. The RSI applied to the fear and greed index is breaking out on the daily. Well, people are saying, "We just got an ugly rejection." What? What? What are they looking at? Where is the rejection? I mean, literally accounts with hundreds, if not millions of followers on crypto, we just got two big rejections. They don't know what they're talking about, my friend.

[00:10:44]Definitely if we get a rejection and we get to break below the levels I told you on the daily that 61 then the 54 I am happy to be in profit with my short but I'm not going to say this is a rejection until I actually confirm it. So going to price where do we confirm that rejection? Well the most bullish one so far is 77576 which is a moving target that is following the price to the upside. So in a few days it's going to be higher. Then we need to lose the 75A79.

[00:11:17]If we don't lose those levels, we got nothing nothing in favor of breaking down so far. And to the upside, we need to cross 798 93. Put a daily close above that level and then we break out to the upside.

[00:11:33]That's the breakout above 67 that we tried already once and so far we have failed. But we are not just in a squeeze anymore. We are in a very microscopic squeeze. This needs to be decided in the next 48 hours. We either break out the 67 or we break the 601 and we start progressing in one direction. Hopefully we don't get fake outs all over the place up and down. But we have a lot of things coming in this week. Earnings, pet meeting, everything. So I talk about some signs on the weekly, some signals triggering this weekend and even on the monthly. We really need to look into those. So let me list them. We have a close above the bull market support band. Whoa, that's a weekly signal.

[00:12:24]Close above April lowest candle close.

[00:12:27]Let me show it to you. On April, we put a close at 78262 and no one is paying attention about that. That is a strong pivot that took us into an all-time high. And if no other channel is talking about that, what are they talking about?

[00:12:42]They're literally literally playing with dolls. Hm. We have four green candles weekly. And the last one this Sunday closed above 78, $700. That's 1K above the lowest closing candle in April. So we have done a silent killer breakout on the weekly and no one is talking about it. We did one breakout above 72700 that was the double bottom that had a technical target into 85400 and we just not just complete halfway through but we have done it against breaking out above that close. That is a huge milestone. We also have an RSI reclaim of the bull market support band that belongs to the RSI that 44. Let's have a quick look. The full bull market we were respecting that 44. You can see it in there. 44 44 44 and then resistance 44. Now we have put a stupid close at 47. Three points. That's not a shallow breakout. is three points above it back into the area that belongs to the bull market. So this forces me to talk about a move into resistance which could lead us depending on speed like right if it's very quick and we get in July there we could land at RSI 60. Are you prepared for that? Where is RSI 60?

[00:14:18]Let's update this. That puts us at around 92 800,000 and that consumes or puts in the range all the liquidity including number four which is still not ripe for consumption.

[00:14:33]But if we carry on to the upside in here, retail is going to short like crazy this level and put their risk at number four. Do not put your risk there.

[00:14:44]Do not put your risk there. And I repeat, don't do that. Don't do it. We just broke out and reclaimed 44. Some people are going to say it's just too out of range. We will never get there.

[00:14:55]And I'm hoping you're right because if you're right, I go straight into profits if we get a rejection from $80,000. But here's the problem. The more people believe that we will never get to four, the more retail believe that we will never get to four, the more likely is that we are going to land at number four. Okay? It's as simple as that. This is an open interestdriven market. It's not yet a spot one.

[00:15:22]Therefore, wherever liquidity is, there's a high chance that we end up getting attracted to those levels. And you can see why I carefully picked in my thumbnail from Saturday, this arrow that points precisely to that level, which is the 93 to 94. The top bottom indicator that tracks the volatility of the full history of Bitcoin is doing a breakout from the falling wedge that belongs to this bare market. That thing never happened in the previous bare market. We were also in a falling wedge that found a bottom at around zero in here and then it broke out around September 2022 and that carry on into the bull market in all this zone. In here we are in a similar structure with a falling wedge and this has already broken out in there. So hopefully that is a fake out but if it continues into the upside is going to get to the top of the range which is happening typically at the top of bull markets. That is really crazy price action. This is at 019 at the moment. A 019 coefficient puts us at $92,000, which is now crazy. If we do that and we go back into this resistance that we have never crossed, we get into $92,000. And as I said this morning in the live stream, after being five months to the downside on the monthly, this moving green here does not look really impressive. So that means that it can carry on slightly higher to create a balance after all this carnage to the downside and still be in a downtrend. On the monthly we are facing this chunk of resistance that ends at 82 262.

[00:17:13]But intracandle you can stretch your hand as high as you want. Just like this red candle went into 98 but ended up closing at 87 which is $11,000 below the closing price the body of the candle. So if we stretch the hand in here we can reach easily 92 93 and then still close in a rejection and then go for lower lows is absolutely doable. is the the right word is absolutely realistic to put that on the table not as a forecast but as a possibility in case you are in a short or in case you are really in a long from the lows you could trail all the way and squeeze all that juice if you are still in the long trailing it like a pro the aggregated open interest still has a very healthy structure if you look at this as price action you will see that there are higher highs and higher lows there nothing really broken despite the fact that everybody's shouting out there that we are experiencing an ugly rejection. That is crap. I don't even remember if I mentioned this already in the video, but it's definitely worth mentioning. The volatility that we experienced when we went into $98,000 was 7.7 measured with the crossby ratio and it was in a downtrend. You can see in here how we were coming down coming down and what we have done in here is not just a breakout of volatility to the upside but it has reached 10 which is higher obviously than this sudo 8 that you have in there that has already superseded in terms of volatility to the upside the move that we did in 98 and that to me guys is really impressive and we cannot neglect it and say okay that's it I I have something else to show you that no one else is seeing out there. And this comes from the longs versus shorts. Surprise, surprise. We do have a breakout of longs. You're seeing the price coming down, but you're not being able to see this data. This data is extremely important. You have a falling wedge of longs versus shorts that have been swinging from areas where we tend to find local tops. This this this this right now here we found a top on the longs versus shorts and that was supposed to come in here to find a top but instead of that longs are saying uh-uh now I'm going to break out and they're becoming extremely persistent these longs and they're pushing into this area. If they get into higher levels in here, they can really push the price way higher. And this is global longs versus shorts on Binance. Let me show you what I'm seeing on Bitfix. If you look carefully at our beloved bare flag, you can see that at 65 the longs were very low on Bit Femix, right? And thanks to having so little number of longs at support, that definitely helped with the dead cut bounce. That was my golden call when we were breaking down and people were saying we're breaking down in here. We're going into 48. No, we are in an area where longs are exhausted to the downside and definitely it represents an opportunity to go up from here and we started going up. Now where do you think we are now on Bitfix longs? Look, we are resetting longs. We are at this level in here and we have the same number of longs that we have at 65.

[00:20:55]Are you convinced that we are about to puke? I will say at least I don't have any confidence that the rejection is going to come from here with this number of longs. It actually looks slightly promising for breaking out to the upside if any. Does it guarantee that we're going to go up? Why don't you take a long? It doesn't guarantee it, but it doesn't give me the confidence to put a huge short here and say, "Well, I'm going to go against the signal and short the heck out of it. I'm just going to keep the same short, wait for higher prices, and average up my short in a way better condition than this one. So, in terms of bearish things, we had the double top on the 4 hour that I show you. It also appears on lower time frames. We have the volatility at the top of the range that I show you with the cross V ratio. We have the hive bearish sell signal on the daily 4hour price trend line breakdown that I refer to what most likely retail are just blindly looking. We have the VIX spy sell signal on the 4 hour on the 12 hour. We have the short-term holder realized price that has come down into $79,000.

[00:22:09]Look at this. We were looking at it one week ago. It was at 81. Now it's 79 too.

[00:22:15]So that's also bearish because if price goes into 79, that puts the short-term holders today in profit. And they might decide to unload because they've been in pain for quite a long time. That's typically what happens in bare markets where you approach this line, you allow some of them to exit a break even, but then you continue with the bare market.

[00:22:39]So that is bearish. But there are some areas where you stay above that line for a few days, maybe a week, and maybe during that week you do the damage and then you dump. That is kind of where I'm trying to go to. It's definitely bearish to have three CME gaps below the price.

[00:22:58]It's bearish to just have closed one of them. Kind of giving the idea, ah, have we just started closing bearish CME gaps? We just closed the first out of four. Hm. Where are the other three? Hm.

[00:23:10]I wonder. Another thing that is slightly looking bull bearish is that the purple wells this time are not really taking the previous high in here. Every time that we were rallying this into the upside, they show interest by really going all in straight into the 100 percentile. Now they are at 800. So they are right there 80% interest. Have they had they lost all the interest on this?

[00:23:42]No. But are they all in just as before?

[00:23:45]Not anymore. So there is a soft gentle shift into some more bearishness which is telling us not yet ready to take that big short. Let them go into two, three, and let's keep an eye on number four if it increases too much because weekly signals have just confirmed that up until 93 has become doable. Not extremely likely, but it became doable.

[00:24:16]So, if you really want to take a short from here and put your risk at number four, don't come moaning and crying if we ever get there in this bare market.

[00:24:26]And I have to admit, if we go to that 93, I'm going to have a lot more fun compared to to seeing the price action just losing the level. And selling May and go away will be fantastic. But my preference is let's do some damage in here because I have some heavy orders that I want to use wisely. But with the current conditions is far far far away from being a great idea. Right. The resistance at 80k is still there.

[00:24:55]Support that used to be at 75 high has decreased. Support that was at 72 is nowhere to be seen. We have some support now at 70, some support at 75, but is way less. So it used to be 800 and as of today is 500. They are pushing the price from 77. There is a heavy level there that you can probably see with a lower time frame in the chart. So if you really want to see everything that I said in terms of bullish and bearish signals, you are going to notice in here that the bullish things on the weekly and the monthly are quite heavy. And despite the fact that we have short-term turns of bearish signals in here, the bears are going to have to do a big effort to hold and not get massively liquidated with number two and three I show you and the liquidity in here. And I think that is the big takeaway from this video. I hope you enjoy. Hit the like, subscribe. Remember that if we get to 900 likes today or in any video, I'm going to put a link to one lucky comment down below so you win the elite membership for one full year. I'm now going to record a summary, send it to my YouTube members, to my Patreon members.

[00:26:12]Just three minutes going through all of this detail. And then I'm going to record a Crystal Gains video, which I haven't done in a few days, where I'm going to cover general markets, stocks, forex, metals, indices, literally everything in just a minutes. You're welcome to go there and subscribe.

[00:26:28]Thanks so much for watching. I'll see you on the next one. Take care. Bye-bye.