Is now the right time for Carney's Sovereign Wealth Fund?

Añadido: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Very glad to be joined as I always am on Mondays by Dmitri Sudis, former director of communications for Prime Minister Steven Harper and Max Faucet, lead columnist for Canada's National Observer. Guys, I hope you had a great weekend.

[00:00:18]>> Thank you. Nice to see you folks.

[00:00:20]>> Nice to see you both. Uh uh uh I think we were all um surp we surprised that we saw more political violence in the United States. This is now I don't Dmitri in my life I I remember the uh the attempted political assassination of Ronald Reagan and now in a span of a few years there's three attempts on on uh on Donald Trump. Uh what do you make of that?

[00:00:43]>> Three attempts on the president on the current president of the United States uh but also an actual assassination of Charlie Kirk. um less less than a year ago. Uh it is the unfortunate reality of assuming public office and and every time this happens in the United States uh and I think there's been plenty of analysis and comments uh but every time this happens in the United States I always think of federal cabinet ministers uh who do not have a protective uh security detail unlike um cabinet members of the US administration. And I always think of how lightly we take security here in Canada. Yeah. And and I would say that these threats both in the United States and in Canada are becoming increasingly um uh are increasing significantly than what maybe they were 20 or 30 years ago.

[00:01:34]>> Yeah. Max Faucet, when uh when I saw the news reports years ago of Jean Cretzia and his wife having to barricade themselves into the h into the the bedroom at 24 Sussex because some guy hopped the fence in the back by the Ottawa River and and gained entry into the home uh and he was one door away from our prime minister. Uh it didn't shock me at all. I I in fact I remember telling people they should have asked me u about the security um um effectiveness of 24 Sussex. that that fence was 4t high and my brother and I used to hop it all the time and walk down the river and walk up and down the river and have have fun as kids did. We are very reactive and last month there was the RCMP came out with a report that said we cannot protect the prime minister of Canada as he needs to be protected in the home that he's been living in for 10 years.

[00:02:24]And I frankly I think it's time we did something very serious because if we think that what's happening south of the border can't happen here, uh we're fooling ourselves.

[00:02:32]>> Yeah, I agree. And and you know, I hope we don't have to find that out the the hard way. Um I agree with you. I've written multiple columns on the need to uh renovate 24 sess. I think it's a joke that the prime minister uh doesn't have the sort of security and the sort of residence uh that that the leader of a major G7 country should have. But also uh you know to Demetri's point um we just don't take this seriously enough across the board. Cabinet ministers are not properly protected. Um even members of parliament I it is an unfortunate reality I think largely due to social media and and just the the times we're in. But the the polarization the the rhetoric is so much more extreme than it was even a decade ago. And and we have not caught up to that reality. You know, obviously things go further and faster in the United States because they have so many more weapons there than we do.

[00:03:21]But we have plenty of weapons here in Canada and plenty of people who are unhinged, unstable, um being, you know, amped up by by various algorithms and and social media platforms. And we need to do more on this before we have a tragedy. You know, we can't wait and I call him about this, but we can't wait until we have a tragedy. Yeah.

[00:03:38]>> Where a family loses a father or a mother to do the right things here.

[00:03:43]>> Yeah, I agree. And I I think some if we can we forget sometimes that you know Jug meet Singh when he's a leader of the NDP was walking to his car and some guy started approaching him and Jugme Singh is a sort of I think he's a black belt in judo. I wouldn't want to meet him in the back in a in a dark alley and he he he walked towards these guys who are trying to threaten him and they backed off right quick. But not everybody has been trained in martial arts like the former leader of the NDP. And these these these stories are cute and funny until they're not. And uh if if Oh yes, go ahead, Demitri.

[00:04:15]>> Well, the same goes for uh our premers, especially the premers of our largest provinces. So, let's make sure that when the government of Ontario purchases a plane for the premier and cabinet ministers, let's make sure that we carpet bomb the media cycle so that they can sell it. Because guess what? a premier of Ontario or of or of Quebec traveling on a commercial on a commercial flight sitting in economy is exposed to a security threat. Oh, wait a second. Um, didn't uh Premier Ford have to give back the plane because of all the carpet plumbing that took place and all the media coverage. So, let's not pretend we care about security, talk about it every time there's an incident or or or an assassination attempt and then move on and say, "Well, the costs are too high." And I guess the cost of life um which which I knock on wood every single day given how lax we are on security measures for cabinet ministers and premers uh that that I pray to god this doesn't happen here.

[00:05:12]>> All right. Well, I want to shift gears and Max, I'm going to bring you into this one first, but correct me if I'm wrong, but don't you need excess money to create a sovereign wealth fund? Uh we don't not only have excess money, we we are we owe money hand over fist for generations. where tell me how Canada opening a sovereign wealth fund in this moment makes sense.

[00:05:34]>> Yeah, I mean I think the devil is in the details on this one and and the prime minister has not really provided Canadians with a lot of details so we have to sort of read tea leaves on this but it sounds to me like this is about um basically creating lowcost capital for projects of national importance and creating opportunities for Canadians to invest in it. I don't know if you know capital gains taxes will be waved on this vehicle but it's about creating a body of patient capital for projects that require it and and can't get it from the private sector whether it's a pipeline whether it's transmission infrastructure it's not a sovereign wealth fund in the way that that Norway's is or or Alaska's is and you know obviously uh Alberta would not want the federal government to be taking the royalties from national natural resource uh extraction that's not on the table um this is a bit of a different uh kind of vehicle But again, we're sort of left guessing at it because the government and the prime minister put this video and then didn't really follow it up with robust details. You know, for a guy who is talking about forward guidance in his videos, there is very little forward guidance here. Dimmitri, when when pushed for details in a in a press conference, the prime minister was very I mean, he was he was eager. you could you could see like he had a secret that he wanted to tell but couldn't tell because there's going to be a lock in tomorrow and the press are going to uh get to learn the details of the um the spring economic update and he he clearly believes that what is going to be presented tomorrow is is a lot of good news uh because he kept teasing it uh and and and I think I think he believes that that might be the those might be the the preconditions that will justify uh this this $25 billion influx into a new fund. So, so let me take you behind the curtain and and give you a sense of what's going to happen tomorrow. Um, the government's fiscal update uh will show that the forecasted deficit, which was about 78 billion, uh, will be lower than what they forecasted in the budget that was tabled in November. Remember, they flipped the cycles between budgets and fiscal updates. Um, but I I I guess economists and and folks like me who who have helped write a budget uh will look at the following things to see if this lower than projected deficit is real or it was just a horseshoe up somebody's behind. And and and here's the issue here. If the forecasted lower deficit um doesn't come from the government actually showing that they were able to slow and eliminate some expenses and if this forecasted lower deficit comes from three points, i.e. an adjustment. Number two, higher than anticipated revenues which the government had no direct impact on, for example, oil prices. And number three, because the government didn't spend all the money that it said it was going to spend, but is planning on spending anyway, then then sorry, uh I I will not be fooled by that. Uh so so let's let's be patient on what actually happens tomorrow. As for today's uh sovereign wealth fund, why don't we call it what it is, a sovereign debt fund, because that's how it's going to get financed.

[00:08:39]>> Yeah, it's that Listen, I'm not against a sovereign wealth fund. I've seen Norway has done just fine with one. Uh but but they set it up at a time where I'm pretty sure their finances look nothing like ours and their and oil.

[00:08:52]>> They funded it from their surpluses.

[00:08:54]>> Yeah, they funded it from their surpluses. And so I >> Well, they Oh, go ahead, Max. They also funded it with a 78% tax on oil and gas profits. So, you know, anyone in the oil and gas industry who is pining for Norway's fiscal structure uh should be careful what they ask for.

[00:09:08]>> Fair enough. Fair enough. I just I just keep looking at the list. I think Brian Lily published a list of all the different funds and um and and mechanisms have been put in place by the Liberals. I mean, it's as long as my arm and so I don't think people have been chomping at the bit for another one just yet. I'm not saying no forever. It just feels weird for it today. Uh, and sometimes when these when these things come out, it's because you don't want them looking somewhere else. But I I'm I'm not a conspiracy theorist. Thanks so much for watching the show. Now, if you enjoyed what you saw, hit that subscribe button so you never miss another episode of the Ben Rooney