Israeli Cities Under Fire As Iran Warns “The Real War Begins Now” | Scott Ritter

追加: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]First of all, non-aggression pact won't work if the United States isn't out of the Middle East. Um You know, why not? Can't you sign a non-aggression pact with the United States? Really?

[00:00:10]You want Iran to go to bed with that piece of paper on their table? The United States is agreement incapable.

[00:00:17]Um What what needs to happen though is that Iran needs to have non-aggression pacts with the totality of the the region, Saudi Arabia included. And the Saudis are taking Remember, don't think it's surprised that the Saudis are making this call.

[00:00:31]Uh the Saudis worked with China and Iran to come together and and create rapprochement a few years back.

[00:00:37]Um And the Saudis know, you know, they have a a a better understanding than most about the geopolitical realities of energy security and um and where Iran is today. And so they're looking but the the there has to be every nation involved in this non-aggression. It has to be a regional non-aggression treaty um signed by all powers. And the guarantor can't be the United States. I mean, the United States of course might play a peripheral role and say it's it's part of it, supports it. But the guarantor has to be primarily China.

[00:01:08]Um in the economic um if you want to do business with China, you have to sign this non-aggression pact, something of that nature. It won't be that blunt because it doesn't work that way, but I think having the Chinese and the Russians work this is a is a good deal.

[00:01:23]Um and it's both as you said in the interest of Russia and China, the north-south economic corridor linking St. Petersburg to Chabahar and the uh new Silk Road that links Tehran with western China and then on into the depth of China. You know, these are essential corridors of of wealth for um you know, for Iran and for and for the region. Um So, you know, that's that's uh that's the that's the new reality. The security uh the security architecture's going to have to move away from a US-centric architecture to a multipolar architecture. And again, the importance of what just happened in Beijing between Vladimir Putin and uh Xi Jinping can't be you know understated. It's uh you know, this is two of the world's most powerful and influential nations coming together and they're not seeking a bilateral rule world. They're not seeking a return to the um to the Cold War. They're seeking a true multipolar world that empowers many nations, not just a handful.

[00:02:21]And um you know, this is the this is the new reality that the United States is going to have to adjust to one way or the other.

[00:02:30]>> Oh, we used to have OPEC and OPEC plus to decide about the price of oil. Do you think we have a new alternative in the market which is the the Strait of Hormuz because the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz can change the price of oil in my opinion in a long run.

[00:02:49]>> Yeah, but that's uh I mean, from a practical standpoint, I mean, in terms of outcomes, um sure. I mean, look, we used to have Aramco, you know, the uh the American uh Arab uh oil company. Um the Arab-American oil company.

[00:03:09]And they basically overproduced Saudi oil production infrastructure. I forget the numbers at 12.5 million at one point in time was maximum production, but they were only producing at 9 million.

[00:03:21]Why? Why have all cuz that's very expensive to have all this infrastructure that you're not using?

[00:03:26]And the answer is because when the United States needs more oil on the market, the Saudis can increase you don't have to wait. They've got it right there. Just turn it on, out it comes, go. And then when we need to tighten it up a little bit, the Saudis do it. And we we had that relationship that said, we will guarantee your security in exchange you help be our market control mechanism. Um in theory, Iran could do the same thing through the Strait of Hormuz. Constrict, release, constrict. The difference is they're constricting shipments that aren't their own.

[00:03:58]Then Saudi Arabia with Aramco, you're turning on Saudi oil pipes which are connected to Saudi oil fields and all that. Here would be Iran constricting the global economy and that's that could be effective in war, but in peace that's that's a non-starter.

[00:04:14]Iran could never be seen as actively squeezing the energy production potential of Kuwait or Bahrain or Iraq or even Saudi Arabia by saying we're only going to let certain amount of ships through there.

[00:04:29]Um So this is why we need a ceasefire effectively, but what's important is that the Iranians can shut it down anytime they want to.

[00:04:37]It's also important that Iran keep it open and allow for the free flow of energy as long as you pay your little your toll tax.

[00:04:43]You know, $2 million a ship I think is what they're they're they're they're charging depending on the the cargo, but um let that happen and and you're you're good to go, but um I don't think Iran is going to be controlling um the cuz that's that's not Iran first of all. Iran's never said that they're going to become the you know, the arbiter of who makes money, who doesn't make money. Iran believes that all nations that produce energy are sovereign nations and that's their sovereign decisions and I believe Iran would support that as long as nations are positioned themselves.

[00:05:19]So I think part of the regional security framework has to include a energy security component. Um you know, where you know, in addition if you have non-aggression pacts, it means Iran doesn't fear overnight the Strait of Hormuz being shut down which means Iran then must commit to the free flow of energy.

[00:05:37]You know, and and there has to be some very well-defined exceptions to that that so that everybody understands that if this happens, this happens, this happens, then Iran has the right to do this, but so long as expectations are met, Iran has to let the traffic go through.

[00:05:54]>> Yeah, I I think that's why I would say Israel is losing Saudi Arabia and Qatar because the situation the calculation on the part of these governments in these countries has totally changed.

[00:06:07]And do you think that is there any way for Israel to you know, do do something about it or to reverse what's going on with the case of Iran because Saudi Arabia and Qatar are I would say so much dependent on Iran right now with the I it doesn't matter if they're going to rebuild or they're going to build new pipeline, but it's not they're not going to get everything out of their countries by these pipelines. They're going to be dependent on this straight of foremost not only when it comes to this straight, we have the internet cables that they're talking many people are talking about that in Iran right now.

[00:06:45]>> Oh, yeah. This is I remember the 1990s.

[00:06:49]Um I had a conversation with the Israelis about the growing threat of Hamas.

[00:06:55]Um when I was traveling to Israel from 1994 through 1998, every time I went to Israel there was a terrorist attack a Hamas terrorist attack that killed people blowing up Dizengoff bus, blowing up a restaurant, blowing up this, blowing up that, blowing everything.

[00:07:10]Some of it happened right next door to me. Um I could hear the explosions. Uh one blew up a restaurant I had lunch at the day before there before the grace go I mean it was a And um you know, and so this was day-to-day reality in there. And um I had a conversation with a with an Israeli and cuz you know, I was working with the Israeli intelligence services security services. So when we'd have lunch, we'd talk about a variety of things.

[00:07:36]And um you know, one of the interesting things they said is that the one guy said the "The way to make peace with Hamas is to actually um negotiate with directly with them.

[00:07:46]Invite them to the table.

[00:07:48]And make them part of the solution, not just being the problem.

[00:07:52]It's very easy to be a terrorist when everybody expects you to do nothing more than just be a terrorist.

[00:07:58]I mean, low bar.

[00:07:59]Uh but if you have to become a problem solver, if you now have a vested interest in the solution, mhm, different.

[00:08:06]In you know, it's politically impossible for this to happen because of the domestic dynamics, but you know, one by one, I could if I were in charge of Israel, I could do things.

[00:08:17]For instance, Gaza needs to be rebuilt totally.

[00:08:21]Totally.

[00:08:22]I would create a mechanism to rebuild Gaza for the benefit of the Palestinian people.

[00:08:31]But let me give you an example. Right down here, they're developing. I had a relative once. She uh very smart lady.

[00:08:38]Made a lot of money.

[00:08:39]And uh I remember a visit once and on her table she had a map of Bozeman, Montana.

[00:08:44]And I said, >> [snorts] >> She lived in Beverly Hills in a million-dollar house. I said, "What the hell you got a map of Bozeman, Montana on?"

[00:08:51]She said, "I'm buying land."

[00:08:53]I said, "Oh, well, how do you buy land?

[00:08:55]I mean, how do you So, she had mapped it out. She sat there and she predicted where all the critical crossroads would be.

[00:09:04]She said, "This is where they build banks. This is where they build gas stations. This is where they build infrastructure. So, I'm going to buy the land that they need to build the infrastructure.

[00:09:16]And then when they come to me, I don't sell them the land, I lease them the land. So, I keep a continuous fleet. I keep control over the situation. So, if they ever piss me off, I can sell the land and their bank is gone. It has to go. Um And I went, "Well, that's sort of evil genius." And it was.

[00:09:33]I would do the same thing with Gaza. Um I wouldn't say it up front, but I would I would rebuild Gaza, but I'd buy every piece of property on the important crossroads, and I would own Gaza that way. And I'd make sure the Gaza people prospered, but they also understood at the end of the day who who controlled what. Um, or maybe if they don't understand, for instance, I right now, it's the same thing, development taking place down here. I don't know who owns the crossroads, but I do know that, you know, that's going to become very essential for the local economic development of this of this area. So, whoever owns it is sort of has more control than an elected official in many ways.

[00:10:09]Um, that's how So, I could solve the Gaza problem without any military force, and actually rebuilding and making it look good, but at the end of the day, I have direct control over what happens in Gaza. I could do the same thing in um in in in Lebanon. I could withdraw completely from Lebanon. First thing I'd do therefore, though, is rebuild Beirut.

[00:10:28]I'm not going to let the Saudis come in.

[00:10:30]I'm I'm going to use my cutouts, and I'm going to own Beirut. I'm going to buy their tear down the buildings, buy the important crossroads, build the infrastructure, um, therefore politically empower certain people.

[00:10:42]Rather than seeking the isolation of Hezbollah, I would seek the co-option of Hezbollah. I would tell Hezbollah, I want to work with you. I want you to be part of the future of Lebanon. I want to redirect Hezbollah's activities from fighting me to building Lebanon, but they're building a Lebanon that I control because I control the crossroads.

[00:10:59]And you see, I could do this game all day long. I could do the same thing with Iran. I'd be building economic region in Iran. Iran, I'd be doing That's how Israel wins this war. But the Israelis can't think that way. They don't understand that because they have to dominate. They don't They don't have the the patience to strategic patience.

[00:11:16]They become such a warlike society and a racist society.

[00:11:19]But Israel, there's so much vulnerability in Iran right now. There's so much vulnerability because it's been subjected to sanctions for so long, aging infrastructure, a lot of damage has been done. There's the the the necessity of reconstruction has to be something that it will define You saw what happened You saw how powerful Rafsanjani became after the end of the the Iran-Iraq War.

[00:11:42]How did Rafsanjani become so? Because he got involved in the reconstruction of Iraq and Iran.

[00:11:48]And he empowered the Revolutionary Guard to get involved in that, too. And the Revolutionary Guard went from being a bunch of 20-year-old fanatics who, you know, did their banzai charges at the Iraqis to being businessmen.

[00:12:00]The Revolutionary Guard today is a far more sophisticated entity today because they were involved in the economic rehabilitation and reconstruction of Iran.

[00:12:08]Uh there's a lot of political potential in reconstruction.

[00:12:13]And if I were the Israelis, I would stop bombing stuff and begin talking about how I can own the crossroads and think long-term and make things happen.

[00:12:23]Um That's that's that's what I would do.

[00:12:25]That's the only way Israel's out of this. If Israel thinks you're going to get out of this by bombing, it'll be the end of Israel.

[00:12:32]>> What do we know about the Iron Dome batteries? Who's producing these batteries? Because Hezbollah is hitting them right and left, not only in southern part of Lebanon. In the last in 24 hours, they hit three of them. Today, we've learned that two of them were hit in the northern part of Israel. And I don't know how sustainable is that for Israel with this sort of new attitude of Hezbollah attacking using FPV drones to attack Iron Dome batteries.

[00:13:01]>> Well, it's not just Iron Dome batteries.

[00:13:02]They're attack They're attacking the depth, the logistical depth of of the Israeli presence. You know, Israel has never had to deal with um Hezbollah having the the kind of potential to dominate um the operational depth of the battlefield. Hezbollah's always done a very good job at the point of contact.

[00:13:21]And Hezbollah has shown in the past the ability to send uh Katyusha rockets into upset the political economic balance of northern Israel. But the Israelis always sort of had free hand to maneuver and to concentrate troops and to build logistics and all this.

[00:13:37]And then to flow resources into the battlefield and flow resources out.

[00:13:44]Now at the at the at the tip of the spear Israel's getting the snot handed to them. I mean they're just the the the Hezbollah's just beating them raw.

[00:13:50]Straight up fights. I'm not saying Hezbollah's not suffered casualties, of course they are. This is war.

[00:13:55]But uh Israel has a lot of technological advantages, but the Israeli soldiers aren't that good. They're not that brave. They don't want to die. Um I'm not saying anybody wants to die, but if you go into combat uh believing that your life is valuable, you're going to die sooner. If you go into combat believing that you are an expendable resource and therefore you will be professional in the use of this resource to ensure that you get the maximum benefit out of it, but understanding that uh war is designed to kill and there's a likely probability of you dying, uh you might live. Because now you're doing all the right things.

[00:14:26]You're not hesitating at the moment because you think you're going to live because you think your life is valuable.

[00:14:30]You do what the training tells you, and I think Hezbollah operates that way. I'm not saying the Hezbollah people don't get scared. I'm not saying there isn't, but I'm saying overall Hezbollah is a much more professional, efficient fighting machine than the Israelis are because Hezbollah people understand and are prepared for the potential of death.

[00:14:45]And the Israelis don't want to die. They avoid death. Therefore they make mistakes. They're hesitant, and they don't Hezbollah is exploiting this on the battlefield and now throughout the depth of Israel. Um they're going 20-30 km in with these FPV drones, and it's just absolutely devastating for Israel.

[00:15:00]Israel doesn't have an answer to this problem.

[00:15:05]>> But is that going to force Netanyahu to change its policy, or you see the same sort of attitude? And how long does the United States want to support Israel? And what are the capabilities of the United States right right producing these sort of missiles interceptors for Israel. And you you you didn't mention the Iron Dome batteries.

[00:15:27]Who's >> Iron Dome batteries are you know I mean first of all there's you have to be careful.

[00:15:32]Israel expends a lot of Iron Dome missiles.

[00:15:36]I mean so they you want you're froze so I don't know if you can hear me or not.

[00:15:39]Um >> [clears throat] >> the clock is ticking. I'll keep talking just in case the audience can hear me and you can't. Uh but um you know Israel expends Iron Dome missiles at a at a prodigious level. So you know taking out one or two batteries here you know doesn't change the strategic balance. Um what but it is a problem because every battery you take out that's an area that's supposed to be defended it's no longer being defended and now other weapons and other resources can be brought in.

[00:16:08]Um could you hear me the whole time or was I just babbling into the thin air?

[00:16:12]>> Yeah I yeah I can hear you right now.

[00:16:15]>> Okay cuz I've got three I got two of you on screen. I got I got Nina uh there now I've only got one of you. Okay. I don't know if your audience heard me but and I don't want to repeat. Look the Iron Dome um no it's it's it's a thing just like anything else. Um you know the but the Israelis produce a lot of Iron Dome and we produce I mean we we we build it for them. We build the the missiles we build everything. Um are you alive or are you there? Move so I know you're alive. Okay.

[00:16:41]>> yeah we're alive. Go ahead.

[00:16:43]>> Go ahead. It looks like he froze. I was like oh no he did it again.

[00:16:46]>> I know no.

[00:16:47]>> But no this is a problem. When you take out Iron Dome I I'm not so worried about the impact that has on on production. Um what what it represents though is that Hezbollah can now dictate um you know operational realities uh into the depth. Um the Iron Dome's supposed to protect you don't just put Iron Dome haphazardly.

[00:17:06]Um one of the things the Israelis taught me I mean it was it was actually brilliant. Um you know we were trying to look for um installations of value in uh in Iraq.

[00:17:16]And a big country. So, what the Israelis did is they sat there and they plotted every air defense installation in Iraq.

[00:17:24]Plotted it out. And then you have you know, you you you have the the the the the Rolands and other things that that are only used to to protect high-value things. So, you look where the Rolands are, you assess it, you assess it based on the threat dynamic that's coming in, you start drawing arrows where the you know, the air defense is laid out to build a defend against a threat coming here, here, and you get the intersection of the threat arrows, and you go, "There's something valuable right here." And then you start looking around and going, "Ah, look at that. Look at what's going on." Over time, they built a new road here, they brought in power here, there's something happening in this spot.

[00:18:03]Okay, now we're on to something. Um So, when Israel puts Iron Dome down or something, they're protecting something.

[00:18:11]Because the Israelis, when we projected onto Iraq doing this, what I thought was brilliant, you know, air defense pattern analysis, the Israelis are projecting on there because they understand that they deploy air defense in a similar fashion.

[00:18:24]This is a big hint to the Iranians right now. If you want to know where some value is in Israel, plot out all the air defense and do what I just told you. Cuz that's how the Israelis think. Um things of value.

[00:18:34]But that's um I'm going to get in trouble for saying that.

[00:18:37]>> [laughter] >> I'm not here giving advice to the Iranians. Anybody who's fighting a war, do air defense.

[00:18:43]You Ukrainians, you can do that against the Russians. And you Russians, you can do that against the Ukrainians. I'm an equal opportunity air defense pattern analysis guy.

[00:18:50]But the point is when when Hezbollah blow these things up, they're blowing up something that's there to protect something.

[00:18:57]So, now you've created vulnerability at something. I believe Hezbollah has done this kind of analysis. They know what that's trying to protect, and by destroying these, they're creating you know, vulnerability windows that can be exploited, so even higher value targets can be struck.

[00:19:13]>> Scott, how it do you compare Donald Trump's visit to China to what we've seen with Vladimir Putin and his visit of China? And where are we headed headed with the war in Ukraine because it seems that something is escalating between Russia and Europeans.

[00:19:33]I don't know how devastating that could be.

[00:19:36]Do you think that Donald Trump was talking about it during his visit of China or he didn't because it's all it was all about Iran as I remember. He didn't mention anything about Ukraine, but it seems that Ukraine is getting serious as time goes by.

[00:19:52]Well, first of all, um your audience has to take every word I'm about to say with a grain of salt because I said that Xi Jinping would meet Vladimir Putin at the airport and I was wrong.

[00:20:06]The foreign minister met him. Now, the foreign minister is a member of the Politburo and the vice president who met Donald Trump isn't a member of the Politburo. So, there was an upgrade, but my my sinology skills are off a little bit, you know? So, it is what it is, but the Look, these are two totally different meetings and the outcomes are totally different. China was seeking to manage the United States.

[00:20:29]Um and the United States were seeking to manage China. So, there are two sides trying to manage each other. One side managed better than the other, China.

[00:20:37]But, this these weren't meetings of friends.

[00:20:40]Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are friends. This is a meeting of friendly leaders and nations who are not just in a friendly relationship, but a strategic relationship of extraordinarily depth extraordinary depth and longevity. This isn't a short-term alliance of convenience. This is a long-term strategic um association of necessity of survival. Um and that's what that's what happened.

[00:21:07]Um this is game changing. And it creates a solid foundation for what's next. You know, one of the important things about the Trump China meeting is that uh Trump was put on notice about the existential value attached to Taiwan by the Chinese.

[00:21:23]They actually said conflict.

[00:21:25]That we will have a direct conflict with you if you interfere with this.

[00:21:29]Um that statement now is directly applied because the Chinese have likened and uh Russia's interest in Ukraine to China's interest in Taiwan. So, even though Xi Jinping doesn't come out and straight-up say we support what Russia's doing in Ukraine, the indirect uh relationship is clear that they do. And now what they've done is they've created strategic depth energy associations economic uh relationships that will survive any potential escalation. I believe there will be an escalation. I think war between Russia and uh at least one Baltic state is inevitable as a war of warning. I believe that I think it's Latvia will be taken off the map. Uh Russia's already identified numerous military and leadership targets that will be taken out. They'll be taken out decisively. And I think that Ukraine is going to be eliminated from the playing board as a political viable political entity. I think that Kiev will be annihilated by a mass uh Russian attack that destroying the decision-making centers of the Ukrainian government. If they relocate there to Lavov, Lavov will be taken out. Russia's done playing games. Um it's it's over. Uh they pushed Russia too far, and they got Russia into a zone that if it continues, Russia suffers existential consequences. Russia's not playing that game. And so, Russia's