Tesla Cybercabs Will be FREE in the Future; Cern Basher Amazing Slides

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:02]Sir Basher is here with me and I wanted toh let him know that this morning I changed my prediction or at least I changed my method of arriving at my prediction. So CERN, you've probably heard me say maybe even on your on this channel when you're there that I believed that the stock the Tesla stock would drop drop drop from January because missed expectations. So if they didn't come out, didn't come out. If the robo taxis weren't out there, if the robo taxi were, they would just drop, drop, drop, drop. So this morning, I don't know what really caused me to think it, but I went, no, you know what? We're starting to see this ramp now. We went what, yesterday? Five new five more cars or whatever, and the stock wasn't going up yet, but then it did this morning, which was a little bit surprising given the wacky way the the markets are today. So when that went up, it triggered my mind.

[00:00:57]and like, okay, instead of having it just glow up like 10% at a time once there's 5,000 cars out there, I think it's going to do exactly the opposite. I think as they add more and more, we're going to trickle up back to all-time highs.

[00:01:15]>> That's my >> Is every robo taxi worth like a billion dollars in your in your thinking?

[00:01:20]>> Something like that. Yeah.

[00:01:22]>> Yeah.

[00:01:22]>> Each one that's unsupervised. Not I don't care about the rest.

[00:01:25]>> Oh, I see. Only the unsupervised. Yeah.

[00:01:27]Yeah.

[00:01:28]>> Yeah. No. Interesting. U the other thing could be going on today is people could be celebrating the fact that Tesla is only spending 25 billion on capex this year >> only. Yeah.

[00:01:37]>> When all the other hyperscalers are racing towards, you know, 200 billion a year, >> right? I know. I know. But I don't think that's it.

[00:01:46]>> You don't think so? Uh, we did I did do a very deep analysis though the other day and figured out that best I can tell the the the negative free cash flow would be no more than about that same number about 25 uh billion. So that would get us down well in fact it was more like 19 is the more likely number. Um so that would mean we still got 25 billion in the bank which I think Elon would find would be fine.

[00:02:14]Yeah. plenty of cash and I actually think there's going to be an upside surprise this year on auto sales.

[00:02:18]>> I do too. I do too.

[00:02:20]>> With higher gasoline prices um you know and of course FSD is a demand driver now, >> right?

[00:02:27]>> Um so the combination of those two I think could be uh could be nice.

[00:02:30]>> Somebody also pointed out the other day that the visibility of the cyber cabs could be a demand driver.

[00:02:37]>> Um so what is that car? Oh, that's a Tesla with nobody in it. You know, >> better check out Tesla cars. Oh, these are nice.

[00:02:44]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:02:46]>> So, we'll see. We'll see. All those things be true.

[00:02:49]>> Well, speaking of cars, Randy.

[00:02:51]>> Okay.

[00:02:52]>> Are you ready? Are you ready for this?

[00:02:54]>> You told me you're, you know, going to surprise me today.

[00:02:56]>> Yes. Randy has not seen any of these slides and does not know the content of what he's about to see. I have breaking news.

[00:03:03]>> Breaking news.

[00:03:05]>> Breaking news. Or maybe it's broken news. You can you can decide for yourself.

[00:03:10]Um, as you may know, uh, the Formula 1 race is in Miami this weekend.

[00:03:15]>> Oh, okay.

[00:03:16]>> And Formula 1 is a big global sport.

[00:03:18]This is a global stage. Miami is kind of a unique race. True F1 fans don't really like it a whole lot because it's a lot of glitz and show, but that's >> that's the way we do things in Miami.

[00:03:28]>> Got it. Yes.

[00:03:29]>> And in Las Vegas.

[00:03:30]>> I noticed that Wenom's even pink.

[00:03:33]>> Yeah. Yeah. And it's not Alpine, it's Alpine.

[00:03:37]>> Okay. Okay. Make sure you get that right. [laughter] >> But these are the the liveries for six of the teams. And then here is what the other five teams look like.

[00:03:46]>> Okay. I we we need that lime green to go with that pink, though.

[00:03:50]>> Yep. Yep. Um each team has two drivers, so there's there's two two cars per team.

[00:03:56]>> Mhm.

[00:03:57]>> Um so, you know, healthy number of cars on the track at the same time. And some of these Formula One tracks are pretty tight.

[00:04:03]>> Yeah. But I'm here to announce that Tesla has an F1 line of cyber cabs.

[00:04:09][laughter] >> Oh, sorry. Let me be more precise. They should have an F1 line of cyber cabs.

[00:04:13]>> Okay.

[00:04:14]>> And if they did, this is what I think they would look like. So, here's the Mercedes Cyber Cab.

[00:04:20]>> Uhhuh.

[00:04:20]>> Here's the Ferrari one. It's got the extra little fin here to make it just a little bit faster.

[00:04:27]>> Uh here's the McLaren one, which is pretty pretty cool.

[00:04:29]>> That looks good.

[00:04:30]>> Here's a Red Bull. Uh the the stance of the car for the Red Bull one, it goes quite nicely with the Red Bull and how it's got its head down.

[00:04:38]>> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:04:39]>> Um so that seems to work out really well. Here's the H automation car.

[00:04:45]>> Mhm.

[00:04:45]>> This is a US team, by the way.

[00:04:48]>> Here's Alpine.

[00:04:50]>> Mhm.

[00:04:50]>> And look at how it, you know, reflects on the on the ground.

[00:04:54]>> Yeah.

[00:04:54]>> My AI did a remarkable job with this.

[00:04:56][laughter] Here's the Visa Cash App Racing Bulls team.

[00:05:02]>> Yeah, >> that one rolls off the tongue.

[00:05:05]Um, here's the new team, Cadillac.

[00:05:08]>> Oh, >> their car is pretty cool.

[00:05:11]>> Yeah, >> where the cyber cab would be.

[00:05:12]>> Yeah.

[00:05:13]>> Here's Audi.

[00:05:15]And here is the uh >> Yeah, it's uh Why am I forgetting the name? It's the Aston Martin team.

[00:05:23]>> Oh, Aston Martin. Okay.

[00:05:24]>> Yeah. So, I want to take your class. I want to take your class on how to use AI for for um illustrations and pictures and also your class on how to uh uh get great slides. You know, I need I need your >> Yeah. Well, there's there's some trade secrets there. I don't know. It's going to be >> expensive expensive lessons.

[00:05:46]>> No, I'll happily teach you. By the way, just to finish this off, there's one more team.

[00:05:50]>> Oh, okay. There's the Williams Racing Team which one of the most story teams in all F1, >> right?

[00:05:54]>> Um and they're one of their sponsors is Duracell >> and Gemini produced this image for me >> and uh it couldn't for some reason take the battery off the top of the roof. It gave me a whole explanation how it would destroy the integrity of the image if it tried to remove the battery from the top.

[00:06:10]>> That's crazy. So, I think what we have here is actually a thousand mile car and this is for people that want to go on a road trip and not go to the bathroom for, you know, 15 hours.

[00:06:21]>> Yeah. Yeah. Holy.

[00:06:23]>> Um um this is what uh Uber wishes they could get their hands on.

[00:06:30]>> And if they could, this could be pretty cool, but I'm not so sure that Tesla will be willing participant.

[00:06:35]>> Yeah. Uh unless of course Uber becomes a fleet manager and and solely participates in the Tesla robo taxi network.

[00:06:42]>> Yeah, >> this would not be available on the on the Uber app.

[00:06:45]>> Yeah.

[00:06:46]>> Um but they could make these cars look pretty cool. And I am pretty sure that we'll never see this. [laughter] This is the never happening edition.

[00:06:56]>> So that was a good a good post.

[00:06:58]>> Yeah. and Uber. I think that maybe he's trying to maybe maybe he's not trying to maybe it'll just work out this way, but they're coming in the back door by doing the Tesla um freight I'm sorry, the Uber freight >> deal with Tesla.

[00:07:13]>> That's already that's already a done deal.

[00:07:15]>> So, you know, maybe he's trying to, you know, make sure that he's rubbing elbows with Elon all the way along here and keep keep asking for some method uh to participate.

[00:07:26]>> Absolutely. It's one of those friendships that's completely one-sided and u No, no. I I think that's that's nice that they can partner together on that front, but I don't I don't see Tesla partnering with Uber on Roboaxi again, unless Uber becomes a fleet manager and just owns the vehicles.

[00:07:44]Um, as I was going through this last night, uh, my kids decided that this is what the world needs.

[00:07:50][laughter] >> Minions.

[00:07:53]>> It's the Minion Grip tires, the banana max tread. There you go. Yeah, >> banana power.

[00:07:59]Um, and there's a few sponsors there.

[00:08:02]Um, yeah. Anyway, that that's kind of fun.

[00:08:05]>> Yes.

[00:08:06]>> Um, but you can you can see here how what a beautiful canvas the Cyber Cab could be for advertising or various sponsorships, partnerships, events that are in town.

[00:08:16]>> Absolutely.

[00:08:17]>> Think about when two football teams are playing each other. You could have these running around with this this rap. Well, that goes to uh that goes a long way towards my uh cyber caps being free in the future.

[00:08:28]>> Yeah.

[00:08:29]>> If you could wrap them in ways that actually generated provable revenue to the people that you're putting the wrap on for, uh you might be able to get it to the point where they'd be free.

[00:08:43]>> Yeah. At the very least another source of revenue, >> right, >> for Tesla and andor the fleet owner, >> right? Yep. So, that'll be exciting. So, this is probably a good point to drop the disclaimer.

[00:08:56]>> Okay.

[00:08:57]>> You know, after you talk about minions, you kind of have to. [laughter] >> But we uh Randy, I've discovered that that cyber cabs actually have been in existence for a long time.

[00:09:06]>> Oh, >> are you aware of this vehicle?

[00:09:11]>> It's the Opal Bur Berina.

[00:09:16]>> Berina.

[00:09:18]>> Beruna. I don't know. Bernina.

[00:09:19]>> Uhhuh. Uh, this was a picture was taken somewhere in Europe.

[00:09:23]>> Okay. It looks like an old Dodge Dart or something.

[00:09:25]>> Yeah. But it's in pretty good shape. Uh, it's kind of cyber cabbish.

[00:09:30]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:09:31]>> Um, I'm not sure what country this license plates from. Shows somebody, one of your viewers will know.

[00:09:38]I don't know whether that's a German emblem on there or what that is, but um, certainly Opel German car company that was >> Yeah.

[00:09:47]>> purchased by GM. Is GM still own Opel?

[00:09:49]I'm not sure.

[00:09:50]>> I don't either.

[00:09:52]>> Yeah. Anyway, that that's a precursor of the Cyber Cap.

[00:09:57]>> Yeah.

[00:09:57]>> And actually, this is from Marco. Uh he says sometime in 1977 through uh 1982, >> the beautiful Opal Record E.

[00:10:07][clears throat and laughter] Um you hardly ever see these anymore. I wonder I wonder why. But it is >> this one is well preserved.

[00:10:14]>> I did I did have one car that was gold.

[00:10:16]I should I should uh look it up online and see if I can find uh pictures of it.

[00:10:20][clears throat] >> Mhm.

[00:10:21]>> Yeah.

[00:10:22]>> And then here's a good picture from Joe Techmire of the new Golden Cyber Cabs here in the upper left.

[00:10:28]>> Mhm.

[00:10:29]>> Contrasting with one of the engineering prototype vehicles here in the lower right.

[00:10:32]>> Mhm.

[00:10:33]>> You can see how much, you know, brighter this is in the same lighting conditions.

[00:10:37]>> Right. Right.

[00:10:39]>> Um a lot of people were saying, you know, how much they like this better, but you know, they they haven't seen this in person yet. Um, I think that we should hold our judgment until we see them. But this was a very striking car in my opinion.

[00:10:51]>> Yeah.

[00:10:52]>> And I think making a little bit more gold and a little bit shinier, I think will be nice.

[00:10:56]>> I'm sure that they've done some testing.

[00:11:00]>> Yeah. I'm sure there's a reason for it.

[00:11:01]>> Yeah.

[00:11:03]>> Uh, the other thing that Joe shared was this beautiful image of all these Cybert trucks.

[00:11:09]Uh it's nice to see production ramping up at Cybert trucks that you know the failed the failed vehicle that Tesla's produced >> right >> which happens to be the best vehicle ever in my opinion but it's been judged as as a failure >> right >> I suppose from a sales perspective it hasn't been as great as what people hope for that maybe things are turning on that >> right yeah you so another one of those situations where expectations were set uh and not necessarily by the company but rather by the pre-orders.

[00:11:39]>> Yep.

[00:11:40]>> Um and then for whatever reason in that ensuing four years and a much much higher price, uh all that didn't come to pass.

[00:11:50]>> Little something called inflation didn't help.

[00:11:51]>> A little thing called inflation.

[00:11:55]>> Yeah. Well, and then we also have other breaking news that's now a day old, but we now have the first uh semi off the production line.

[00:12:02]>> Yeah.

[00:12:03]uh off of the I think they called it the high high volume production line.

[00:12:07]>> Right.

[00:12:08]>> And I think in the back here is another one shortly behind it.

[00:12:12]>> Oh, >> but somebody didn't uh realize that there was a Ford parked here in the in the image. They probably should have got gotten rid of that or covered it.

[00:12:21]>> Anyway, that's fine.

[00:12:23]Somebody somebody somebody uh put on in my feed today on X that [clears throat] they didn't quite understand why there was so many people in uh that needed to do this in a company that is so heavily involved in automation and I thought that those folks are going to create 15 billion dollars in revenue and fully ramped.

[00:12:48]>> So I think it's I don't think it's too many.

[00:12:50]>> It's not.

[00:12:52]Yeah. We also don't know too, you know, are these all Tesla employees or some of these suppliers?

[00:12:56]>> Oh, yeah.

[00:12:58]>> Um, that would be a question. I know that when I've had tours at the Gigafachatry, I've seen a lot of suppliers walking around.

[00:13:06]>> Um, but even if this was all Tesla employees, which is probably highly likely that it's just Tesla employees, um, yeah, it doesn't seem crazy for what you're talking about in terms of the number of trucks falling off this line eventually 50,000 a year and the and the revenue that represents. Absolutely.

[00:13:22]And then of course you could imagine there's probably a bunch of Tesla employees here that have been involved in setting this up that that might not be sticking around longer >> term.

[00:13:31]>> So that that may make this team bigger than than it would otherwise be.

[00:13:34]>> Mhm.

[00:13:36]>> So anyway, we are checking off the milestones, events, and catalysts just by day.

[00:13:42]>> Wow.

[00:13:43]>> So in the middle there, I've got this with a we're circled here. The Tesla semi started production.

[00:13:48]>> Boom. We can check that off.

[00:13:50]>> Yeah. Next up, by the way, on May 3rd, my prediction is May 3rd, Tesla's going to cross 10 billion FSD models.

[00:13:58]>> Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.

[00:13:59]>> Cumulative FSD.

[00:14:02]Uh and then, of course, we're waiting for a Robbo taxi roll out in Phoenix, Miami with with those F1 edition cars, >> right?

[00:14:08]>> Um Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas. And by the way, Las Vegas is another F1 city, as is Austin.

[00:14:14]>> Yeah. So, if Tesla doesn't do it this weekend, they've got two more chances this year. [clears throat] And then, uh, you know, we're looking forward to the first paid Cyber Cab ride and maybe a CyberCe event coincides with that. Uh, FSD approval in China, Israel, uh, nextG Roadster reveal. It's any anytime now, >> right?

[00:14:37]>> And then so on. And that's that's all kind of in Q2 still even though we're one month down in in Q2.

[00:14:44]>> Right. Right.

[00:14:47]>> U this is just a list of events, milestones and catalysts for 2026. I haven't gone past that yet. So you can still see there's a lot of things to be looking forward to for the remainder of the year.

[00:14:57]>> Many, many, >> many, many.

[00:15:00]>> Mhm.

[00:15:01]>> And then speaking of FSD miles, here we are just before uh we came on the air.

[00:15:06]Uh this is where the counter was. 9.919 billion >> and they're clicking off between 26 and 27 million miles a day now and so May 3rd is the is the date I think unless they make further adjustments to the rate of growth in the counter. You can see there's been a couple stairst step changes. So I don't anticipate one here in the near term.

[00:15:27]It's probably going to happen a couple months from now.

[00:15:29]>> My guess is that they'll slow it down so that it so that it comes on May the 4th.

[00:15:34]>> That would be perfect.

[00:15:35]>> Yeah, >> that would be perfect.

[00:15:37]But they lost an opportunity to do something on on April 20th.

[00:15:41]>> They did.

[00:15:42]>> So there's all these missed opportunities unfortunately.

[00:15:46]Um this was a good news yesterday. Uh following a future roll out of FSD14 light for hardware 3 vehicles in the US.

[00:15:55]We are we plan on expanding V14 light to additional international markets.

[00:16:01]This update ensures that hardware 3 vehicle owners will continue to benefit from ongoing software updates. Since international rollout is subject to very several factors, completion, technical verification, regional adapt adaptation, and relevant regulatory approvals, we can't provide definitive dates at the moment, but we'll provide updates on a rolling basis.

[00:16:21]>> So, they also haven't said what light means.

[00:16:26]Well, it's a version of V14 that can run on hardware 3.

[00:16:30]>> I understand >> that because your your point is what what are they giving up? What what functionality won't Yeah, >> exactly. We we we don't want to give up summon and banish.

[00:16:40]>> Well, I don't have that yet on Cybertruck. So, yeah.

[00:16:46]Um, we'll see. But I think this is nice.

[00:16:49]This is actually nice communication, by the way.

[00:16:51]>> Yeah.

[00:16:52]>> Which is refreshing.

[00:16:56]Let's just say speaking of nice communication, this is from uh SpaceX.

[00:17:02]>> Okay.

[00:17:02]>> I'm not sure if you saw this little documentary. It's about 24 and a half minutes long.

[00:17:06]>> I have not watched it.

[00:17:07]>> It's it's fantastic. I've watched it twice.

[00:17:10]>> Okay.

[00:17:11]>> Um new ship, new booster, new engines, new pad, new test site. Uh it's really kind of remarkable behind the scenes. I don't think you even see Elon in this video. You you hear from other people on the team. And that's really cool >> because what these guys are doing is incredible.

[00:17:26]>> Yeah.

[00:17:27]>> Um and of course some of the images in in this video are just staggering.

[00:17:33]>> Uh this is one I wish I had like a you know a 200 inch screen in my my house to watch this on >> or go to a movie theater or something to see it because on a big screen this would be incredible.

[00:17:43]>> Huh.

[00:17:44]>> Um here you're you're just seeing you know part of the the booster and there's just people down below here, >> right? Um, and this shot I think is amazing.

[00:17:53]This is just the the Starship itself, which is the smaller of the two parts of of the Starship and booster being rolled down the road to the test site.

[00:18:01]>> Mhm.

[00:18:02]>> Um, it's pretty cool. And of course, Cybertruck's the perfect the perfect vehicle to go along with this.

[00:18:08]>> Exactly. So, in other words, uh, sheep in New Zealand can't hold a candle to how long you could possibly get held up on the road if you happen to be there the wrong day when Starship is getting moved.

[00:18:23]>> Yes. And here you can see it. You see the lineup of vehicles uh, trailing behind here.

[00:18:28]>> Yeah. Yeah. Have you do you uh, were you young, old enough when you left New Zealand to remember how often you might have been stopped by sheep crossing the road? I remember it.

[00:18:39]>> Okay. [laughter] >> Yes, I remember it. Although I also remember I think my father basically just like driving his car through the the herd and the sheep the sheep move.

[00:18:49]>> Now he didn't drive fast. It was a very slow roll through the herd. But yes, >> it is it's it's probably better just to be patient and wait for them to cross the road and all that. But >> I haven't been to New Zealand or Australia or Australia, but I did see this phenomena in southern Ireland.

[00:19:08]Yeah. In this case, uh you wouldn't be able to drive your way through this.

[00:19:12]>> No.

[00:19:13]>> As you can see in this previous image, it pretty much takes up the entire road, >> right?

[00:19:17]>> Uh and they wouldn't be happy with you if you try to go around it. You probably get arrested pretty quickly.

[00:19:22]>> I wonder what the people that are walking are doing. Are they just out for exercise or >> Yeah. Do they have job?

[00:19:28]>> Yeah, they I don't know. They probably have a job to check the road to make sure there's nothing on the road to cause problems. I'm not I'm not sure.

[00:19:34]>> Yeah. You don't that you wouldn't want that thing to hit a bump and tip over.

[00:19:38]>> No, >> no, >> no, you wouldn't. That would be a bit of a problem.

[00:19:42]>> It would make for a pretty cool artifact, you know, for visitors.

[00:19:45][laughter] >> And this this is the Starship heading towards the the Massiey's test site. And of course, they roll it the other way to get to the launch towers over here, >> right?

[00:19:56]>> And Bokeh Chica Beach is is along here.

[00:19:59]Uh and the Rio Grand River is just kind of on on the right side here. Um, it's a it's a neat spot.

[00:20:05]>> Yeah.

[00:20:06]>> Um, so I watched this and I I thought, well, wouldn't it be cool, you know, given how inspirational this is? And it also shows the the trials and tribulations of the team. Like, not everything goes smoothly in this video.

[00:20:17]>> There's some stuff that blows up here.

[00:20:19]>> Yeah.

[00:20:20]>> Um, wouldn't it be cool if Tesla AI could do the same thing for robo taxi development and deployment?

[00:20:26]>> Yeah.

[00:20:26]>> Get some behind the scenes. Sure. You know, going on. give us a greater appreciation for some of the challenges that they're going through because I think we're all sort of sitting here saying, "Why can't you ramp? What's going on? Like what's stopping you?" And of course, you get the conspiracy theorist saying, "Well, Elon's doing this to keep the price down so SpaceX can buy Tesla and all this."

[00:20:45]>> Right. Right. Right.

[00:20:46]>> Um so that would go a long way, I think, in just sort of giving us something to to focus on. And of course, the same thing applies, I think, to the Optimus development.

[00:20:55]>> Sure. Um, and my point with this is that the Starship and Starlink and Roboaxi and Optimus, they're all going to improve humanity in some pretty amazing ways and kind of jointly.

[00:21:07]Um, you know, Optimus may be Starling Connected and Roboaxi may be Starling Connected and so on, >> right?

[00:21:14]>> And it's like why why shouldn't they bring us along in this journey?

[00:21:19]>> Wouldn't it be cool? They're doing this with SpaceX in a nice way. Um, you know, and then and they're teasing future episodes of this mini documentary with Starship 12 launch.

[00:21:29]>> Okay.

[00:21:30]>> Um, so anyway, so I'm making an appeal to Tesla to do something similar.

[00:21:36]>> Uh, just, you know, give give an intern a camera and set them free.

[00:21:41]>> Well, you know, I don't know if you remember this. It was a couple of years ago, but uh when everybody was clamoring for for advertising, they they they said, "Okay, we'll we'll do something." And so they hired an entire video department. Um and so, you know, then we started seeing these little short videos on social media and whatnot.

[00:22:02]>> Yeah.

[00:22:03]>> And I'm thinking to myself, um I know a lot about taking videos.

[00:22:08]I've done lots and lots of commercial videos. And I think they should be able to do like three, if they got a team of pros, they should be able to do three or four really good one minute or two minute videos a day. [laughter] So, what happened team? Where are you guys?

[00:22:30]I don't know.

[00:22:31]>> Yeah.

[00:22:32]Yeah. This in this day and age of social media and and viral videos, there's an opportunity.

[00:22:38]>> Huge. Um, >> absolutely huge.

[00:22:40]>> Yeah.

[00:22:41]>> And if they ran out of ideas, they could just ask ask Rock, >> you know.

[00:22:46]>> Yeah.

[00:22:46]>> Rock ran out of ideas, they could call me.

[00:22:48]>> Just call you.

[00:22:49]>> Yeah.

[00:22:50]>> Randy Kirk on Speed Donald. [laughter] >> Uh, Randy, we have a a a solar factory going up.

[00:22:58]>> Yeah.

[00:22:58]>> Did you know that?

[00:22:59]>> Well, I knew that. I know that we have one going up. That's the solar array factory.

[00:23:05]>> It's SpaceX's solar factory in Bastro, >> right?

[00:23:09]Yeah. Uh, constructing one of the world's most advanced solar cell battery factories in B, Texas.

[00:23:17]Um, and so here's some, this is from Noah Cows, who is the director of solar production at SpaceX.

[00:23:25]>> Mhm.

[00:23:26]>> Um, and here's some images of the construction.

[00:23:29]>> Okay. All right.

[00:23:30]>> This building behind here, I believe, is the Starlink um, factory.

[00:23:35]>> Oh. Mhm. where they make the Starlink receivers.

[00:23:38]>> Right. Right.

[00:23:39]>> Something 10 million a year or something capacity. Some crazy number.

[00:23:42]>> Yeah. I think >> looks like a little mini gigafactory. I >> think they're in the process of doubling that or something.

[00:23:48]>> Yeah. They've added on to the building.

[00:23:49]I'm not sure what the current capacity is, but it's a big number.

[00:23:53]>> Uh so here's, you know, some concrete.

[00:23:55]>> Mhm.

[00:23:57]>> So that's good. Um and then I thought this was a a absolutely brilliant um opportunity and move by by Tesla. Um but they they're launching direct to satellite connectivity uh for Starlink smart cattle callers.

[00:24:15]>> Yeah, absolutely.

[00:24:17]>> Uh a world first that removes the need for cell towers or on ranch infrastructure. So if you think about the TAM of Starlink as every human on the planet >> right >> now it's literally every animal on the planet.

[00:24:29]>> Well and and and also uh old people like me with Alzheimer's.

[00:24:37]>> Well I still consider you a person Randy. So that's still on the first >> Oh the Yeah. Okay. All right.

[00:24:43]>> Yeah.

[00:24:44]>> But I I I can't wait to get my collar.

[00:24:47]>> Yes. [laughter] And if you have a cat or dog or some other pet, then a collar for that one, too.

[00:24:52]>> Yeah.

[00:24:53]>> And we can track the the movement of everybody real time on the planet.

[00:24:57]>> Yeah. And and uh you know, this goes beyond uh you know, your pets. I mean, how much how much time have people been spending tracking all kinds of uh animals that they consider to be uh you know um endangered species and whatnot.

[00:25:13]So, you know, >> that's right. Now, this is pretty amazing. The opportunities for Starlink actually are are greater I think than most people realize.

[00:25:22]>> Yeah. They'll think of more later.

[00:25:24]>> Oh yeah. As this the cost comes down, the uses will only expand and they'll expand to basically tracking anything and everything that moves.

[00:25:31]>> Yeah. Or maybe that is stationary because you could literally, you know, like was it you and I that we had all those conversations? Did you bring this up earlier about the way that Optimus will be able to count the trees or count a the leaves on a tree faster or whatever?

[00:25:50]>> Yeah.

[00:25:50]>> So, you can imagine that you could literally have uh video or you know cameras sitting around that would be doing things like that that need to be done uh on things that are basically stationary. Um collecting that data far more efficiently than we do now.

[00:26:06]>> That's right. Yeah. Tremendous tremendous potential.

[00:26:11]Um, what's this, Randy?

[00:26:18]>> I I don't know. Is that the Russian thing?

[00:26:22]>> No, this is this is a satellite made by US company.

[00:26:25]>> Okay.

[00:26:26]>> And my question to you, I guess it may be a better question, is what is a satellite doing?

[00:26:31]>> What is the satellite doing?

[00:26:34]I don't know.

[00:26:37]It is looking at spectral data from planet Earth. So for example, it can it can detect methane leaks.

[00:26:46]>> Well, really any chemical on the planet, we can track it and see where it's coming from and where it's going and you can warn people downstream down wind >> um or you know for whatever other purpose.

[00:27:00]Um you can look at the a farmer's crops the uh sort of the the content of the soil whether it's too moist or too dry >> or even other various chemicals in the soil soil soil composition analysis um really pretty amazing technology.

[00:27:17]This is uh being developed by a company called Planet >> um and they have this fleet of what they call Tanner satellites and they're going to deliver methane monitoring at scale.

[00:27:29]H No longer do you have to send somebody out in the truck to go inspect the pipeline or whatever. It's it's basically instant.

[00:27:36]>> Um and they have this carbon mapper program. Um so pretty amazing. The cool thing about uh Planet is that they use uh SpaceX to launch these these little satellites.

[00:27:47]>> Right. Right. Right.

[00:27:49]>> Um so a lot of development going on in space. It's not not just SpaceX doing stuff. There's some other really interesting companies doing some really cool things.

[00:27:57]>> Yeah. I know that the one of the current X-P prizes on um on for Peter Diamandis and his group, one of the X- prizes they're working on is the ability to find a fire and bring um extinguishing events uh within I think 15 minutes.

[00:28:18]>> And the ones that the one that was leading the last time I checked, they basically are saying, "Look, we can see the fire from space."

[00:28:26]>> Yeah. Now I don't know if we got enough satellites to cover all the needed areas or you know so I don't know the details of that part of it but uh if we can see the fire from space then their idea was to have little tiny missiles that you would literally shoot these missiles and they would be there in like less than five minutes and they would have extinguishing uh capabilities. Um and uh that's how you put out fires in California.

[00:28:53]>> Well, you wouldn't even need, you know, water in the missiles. You just need something to destroy the fire. But of course, you might create other fires in the process.

[00:29:00]>> Well, I think it was not I think it was a retardant, not [laughter] some different ways of doing it. You could just heavy weight from space.

[00:29:09]>> Yeah.

[00:29:11]>> Yeah. Um, Planet has a fleet of satellites that take an image of every part of Earth's land mass every day.

[00:29:18]>> Okay.

[00:29:19]>> So, in theory with that, at very least on a daily basis, you'd get you would know whether there's a fire somewhere, >> right? and they're using AI to figure out certain things. For example, uh in the Brazilian rainforest, >> one of the leading things to determine if there's a legal deforestation going on >> is to look for new roads.

[00:29:38]>> You can't log >> an area until you build a road. Even if it's a really makeshift road, you still need a road to get the logs out. Mhm.

[00:29:45]>> So, their satellites uh image the rainforest and they use AI to determine if there's a road >> and they alert the authorities before much damage can be done.

[00:29:56]>> Yeah.

[00:29:56]>> Pretty amazing.

[00:29:58]>> Mhm.

[00:29:58]>> That's one example. Another example was uh in certain areas you well almost all areas you need a permit to build a swimming pool and they can take an image of everybody's backyard basically every day and they can reference that with the local county uh database um and see whether or not you have a permit for your pool, stuff like that.

[00:30:18]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:30:20]>> So if you're thinking of building a pool this summer, you might want to get a permit for it. [laughter] Um, so you think with all this technology, Randy, uh, are we looking at another productivity boom?

[00:30:32]>> And will it be a boom like no other?

[00:30:37]>> I'm sorry. Go ahead.

[00:30:38]>> No, I just that's my question to you. Do you think this this productivity boom from AI um will be the greatest productivity boom we've ever seen?

[00:30:47]>> Oh, yeah.

[00:30:49]Yeah. Yeah. Uh, we we just talked about it a second ago. Your cyber cab might cost you a year from now, two years from now, whenever it really really gets ramped up there. Your cyber cab ramp might cost you 50 cents a mile. It might cost you 30. Elon Musk has said that it'll eventually get down to 30 when the cost to to Tesla is 20. Um, so you get down to 30 cents a mile. Now you're talking about maybe the advertising on the outside of the vehicle or advertising on the screen could get you down close to zero or to zero. Mhm.

[00:31:21]>> Um, and this is going to be happening across food. It's going to be happening across, you know, 3D printed products that you can, you know, print in your house. Um, there's all kinds of places where things that cost. And people say, "Well, Randy, you're just crazy." Well, just remember what a phone call cost of to your grandma when you were growing up, you know, if you're if you're old enough. It's like six miles away. My grandparents were six miles away. It was 10 cents for three minutes.

[00:31:50]Yeah.

[00:31:52]>> Well, you still may be crazy, Randy. We haven't definitively debunked that. But on on the other matter, you might you might be right.

[00:32:01]Um, it's interesting because uh the semiconductor market cap waiting now is the highest it's ever been.

[00:32:09]>> Uh the previous high of course was the dot boom uh just under 8% and now we're at about 14%.

[00:32:15]So this is either another sign of a massive bubble or it's the precursor to that previous chart. It's the leading indicator in terms of hey there's a productivity boom on its way.

[00:32:25]>> Right. Right.

[00:32:26]>> Um and of course if we go back to this previous chart this internet adoption productivity boom was huge initially.

[00:32:33]>> Sure.

[00:32:33]>> Uh it's been you know weak last decade or so. But there's that there's the precursor there.

[00:32:41]>> Mhm.

[00:32:41]>> For that.

[00:32:42]>> Yeah. Then look at this one.

[00:32:46]And it's not as though that the whole market is standing still. I mean this is this is gaining you know market cap waiting in a expanding total market.

[00:32:55]>> Oh yeah.

[00:32:56]>> Which is not not easy to do.

[00:32:58]>> Yeah. I mean you know the the argu or the discussion continues to be about you know is there a limit? Is there a top?

[00:33:05]Is there a point that we won't have enough uh data to feed it or we won't have enough uh money to pay for it? Pay for the what we get out of it. You know what what are the limits here? We don't know.

[00:33:21]>> Well, the limits aren't money. Li money is something [clears throat] that's just created along the way as needed.

[00:33:27]>> Um the limits are more, you know, do we have enough energy? Uh can we make enough semiconductors? All those kinds of things. Those are the true limits, the the physical limits.

[00:33:37]>> Yeah. One of the ones I've I've been paying attention to is is the um your the amount of time that you have to ingest um commercial content.

[00:33:50]This is >> Well, you won't be the only one ingesting it. The your AI agents will be ingesting it.

[00:33:55]>> I see. They'll be watching they'll be watching [laughter] the the pin also.

[00:33:59][clears throat] Huh.

[00:34:00]>> Yeah. So, in that case, there's no limit to the amount of everything >> [laughter] >> Y um this is kind of cool though. It's kind of a red herring. Uh Nvidia's market cap has risen by 1.25 trillion in the last four weeks reaching 5.26 trillion >> until Friday last week and this Monday, Tuesday, what was it? This been Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, uh maybe >> as of April 28th. This is as of a couple days ago.

[00:34:27]>> Yeah. Yeah. It went down a lot uh yesterday.

[00:34:32]um and and you know and of course you you then compare it to something and you say okay well it's now larger than India's entire stock market [laughter] uh and you and you look at it in those terms and you're like how is that possible India is a country of a billion plus people maybe 1.3 billion or something now um you know how can one company be worth so much [cough] well [clears throat] it can be >> because it's been worth excuse me more than the market cap of Canada for a while and more than the market cap of Taiwan and South Korea and the UK and France. So if it can be more than the mark worth more than the market cap of those nations, then it can be worth more than the market cap of India.

[00:35:10]>> Yeah. And Japan.

[00:35:12]Oh, okay. So mainland China, which is the second largest economy in the world now, >> stock market. Yep.

[00:35:20]>> And Japan is the third largest.

[00:35:23]>> Yes. 8.2 trillion.

[00:35:25]>> Yeah. Yeah. So where's Germany in here?

[00:35:27]Maybe it's too They missed Germany. I thought they were fourth or fifth.

[00:35:31]>> Well, I guess they've dropped below France.

[00:35:33]>> Oh my goodness.

[00:35:35]>> Um, yeah, good good question. We can look at that and see if if that's an oversight on this part, but it's Bloomberg, Grand Randy, so it can't be wrong.

[00:35:43]>> And interesting to see South South Korea and Taiwan above the United Kingdom and France. That says a lot.

[00:35:49]>> Well, that's not a surprise to me if you think about where value [clears throat] is being created. It's in technology, >> right?

[00:35:54]>> And Taiwan and South Korea are two >> Yeah.

[00:35:58]You know, it's the focus of those nations for sure.

[00:36:00]>> Yeah.

[00:36:01]>> Uh certainly over France.

[00:36:02]>> And I had no clue on Hong Kong. No clue.

[00:36:05]That's amazing.

[00:36:06]>> Yeah. So technically, I guess you'd put mainland China and Hong Kong together and you'd be at about 21 22 trillion, >> right? Right.

[00:36:16]>> Yeah.

[00:36:17]>> But that's half Hong Kong is half of China.

[00:36:20]>> Mhm.

[00:36:22]>> She >> Yep.

[00:36:25]Uh the only market that Nvidia cannot be larger than is the United States, [laughter] right?

[00:36:33]>> Assuming that Nvidia is not the only remaining company, >> right?

[00:36:37]>> Yeah. Otherwise, it can be bigger than all these markets.

[00:36:39]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:36:41]>> Um this was interesting.

[00:36:44]Um a company called Jane Street. Have you heard of Jane Street?

[00:36:47]>> Oh yeah, sure. their 2025 IBIDA would would make it the 13th largest amongst the most profitable US companies.

[00:36:56]>> You've got Apple, Microsoft, Birkshshire Hathaway, Alphabet, Nvidia, JP Morgan, Meta, Amazon, Allstate, Exxon Mobile, uh, Bank America, United Health Group, and then Jane Street.

[00:37:10]>> Above Walmart, Verizon, Broadcom, and Visa.

[00:37:14]>> For those that don't know what Jane Street is, here's a little AI summary.

[00:37:18]Uh it's a quantitative trading firm. Uh they're founded in New York in 1999.

[00:37:24]Um and they have offices in London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Amsterdam. Uh 3,3,500 employees. And they use says here they use heavy technology, math, computer science, and machine learning to trade across stocks, ETFs, options, bonds, currencies, and on more than 200 plus trading venues in 45 plus countries.

[00:37:43]So if you think you have an edge in the markets, you don't. Because these guys are making they made 31 billion in operating profit last year.

[00:37:51]>> Wow. [laughter] >> So all those people that try to trade and all those people that think they're smart to trade, okay, you might be successful, but here's a here's a pretty sophisticated player that's that's making money when the markets are volatile.

[00:38:06]>> Yeah. And it's just going to get and it's probably just going to get >> more lopsided to the to the big guys.

[00:38:12]>> Yeah. I mean, yes, we now have Grock, so or whatever. We have the LLMs and they're going to get better and better.

[00:38:19]So, we do in some sense, you might say we're going to get more democratized in in terms of our knowledge. Uh, but I I somehow I think it's going to work the other way.

[00:38:30]Yeah, >> I shared this a little bit just because I think this is interesting. But there's also become a bit of a narrative I think on on X lately uh with many people sort of knocking, you know, buy and hold investors and making them out to be stupid >> and making it seem like it's obvious that you should sell, you know, Tesla or other companies at certain points and buy them back and all this stuff. And and that may be true at times. you may be able to do that, but I'm pretty sure at some point the stock's going to surprise you. And if you're not properly positioned, uh, that could be a major a major issue. So, >> yeah, >> you can play the short-term game if you want. You can get in and out of stocks, fine. I don't I don't have a problem with that. But just be aware of the the risks.

[00:39:13]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:39:15]>> Um, Randy, you can't spell inflation without AI.

[00:39:21][laughter] The husband's asking his wife, "What happened to our electric bill?" And she says, "Infli inflation."

[00:39:30]>> Yeah, >> that's good.

[00:39:32]>> That is good. That is good.

[00:39:33]>> Yeah.

[00:39:34]>> Yeah. But you know what? I've got some good news. You know how we worried about egg prices not too long ago?

[00:39:39]>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:39:40]>> Egg prices have cracked, Randy. They're They're down 93%.

[00:39:45]>> So, you know how we were freaking out about egg prices?

[00:39:48]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:39:48]>> You can rest easy.

[00:39:50]I am resting easier even now.

[00:39:53]>> Yeah, it's amazing.

[00:39:55]>> Is is beef is beef going to follow but it'll take two years I understand.

[00:39:59]>> I don't know.

[00:40:00]>> Yeah, >> but you know people find substitutes.

[00:40:03]They they reduce their demand and then of course supply comes back on. There's all kinds of self-correcting forces.

[00:40:10]>> Uh we don't need the the government egg commission to solve this problem.

[00:40:14]>> No, I was saying this about beef. It's like somebody was like, "Oh, well, you know, beef, beef, beef, and it's so high. It's so expensive." And I'm like, "Stop buying it."

[00:40:24]>> Yeah.

[00:40:24]>> It'll come down rapidly.

[00:40:26]>> That's right. [laughter] >> That's right.

[00:40:28]>> People are still People are still buying it at at these high crazy prices.

[00:40:32]>> There's I see billboards all the time that say eat more chicken.

[00:40:35]>> Yeah. Exactly.

[00:40:38]>> Yeah. Um oil. Here's a little cartoon.

[00:40:42]The guy says, "Looks bullish to me.

[00:40:44]There's a barrel of oil with a a shadow behind it in the shape of a bowl.

[00:40:49]>> Yeah.

[00:40:49]>> Uh and that's I suppose been true. Um if you look at national gasoline prices >> unled gas, uh we are at $4.30 >> Mhm.

[00:40:59]>> as of yesterday and that's the highest we've been since uh 2022.

[00:41:05]>> Mhm.

[00:41:06]>> And during that period, it peaked at just over $5 a gallon.

[00:41:10]>> Right.

[00:41:11]Uh, and of course, you know, we're just heading into the summer driving season, so this may not be the top yet, but I'm here to report a couple things that uh oil exports uh have hit a record high.

[00:41:26]>> Mhm.

[00:41:26]>> So, this doesn't help. We're exporting a record amount of oil outside the United States.

[00:41:31]>> Okay. Um, and I'm here also to report that the number of crude carriers headed towards the United States, racing towards the United States at the speed they go, >> uh, is now around 60.

[00:41:46]>> Uhhuh.

[00:41:47]>> Um, so you know, the meeting the need of of moving oil from the United States uh around the world, >> right? Right.

[00:41:55]>> Um, so that that may not help our gasoline prices this summer. All right.

[00:41:59]But but but CERN, you know, in point of fact, it's still the prices are set by the market, by the worldwide market.

[00:42:09]>> You bet.

[00:42:09]>> So we don't >> at least for oil. Gasoline's a bit more regional.

[00:42:13]>> It's a little bit more regional, but you still have national you still have a a market in in gasoline.

[00:42:19]>> Yeah. And there's one easy way to fix it is if everybody just buys EVs.

[00:42:23]>> That's right. That solves it. And clearly I I do think this is going to be actually a bigger demand driver than perhaps most of us think throughout the summer.

[00:42:32]>> Who was saying that? Was it It wasn't Powell, but they were making the comparison to the last time that we had the oil crisis back in the 60s and early 70s. And the fact that we do so much more with electricity now, including cars, etc., etc., um has made has made it much less impactful this time.

[00:42:58]>> Yeah.

[00:43:00]Yep. Um it certainly hasn't impacted me as much. [laughter] >> Nor I.

[00:43:07]>> Yeah. Now, here's something I think to uh look at, talk about, and think really hard about because what's happened in China, I think it's very interesting.

[00:43:19]China's real estate market has erased all gains from the last 20 years.

[00:43:22]>> Yep.

[00:43:24]>> Um which is pretty astounding when you think about it.

[00:43:27]>> Yeah.

[00:43:29]>> Um now I suppose if we lengthen this time period and went back 25 years or 30 it might be a very different story.

[00:43:35]>> Okay.

[00:43:35]>> We we may be chopping off the the biggest gains here and you know so I realize that there's some time frame uh thing here and I guess the right question to ask is could this ever happen in the USA?

[00:43:47]>> 100%. Right now, if we compare it to this chart, uh 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners in the United States, >> Mhm.

[00:43:56]>> has dropped down to under 15%.

[00:43:59]>> Mhm.

[00:44:00]>> And 1950s and60s7s it was uh you know 50 to 45%. And starting in 1990, it started to drop.

[00:44:08]>> Right.

[00:44:09]>> By the year 2000, we were under 35%. By 2010, we were just above 20. And uh 2020, we're at 15%. And now we're below 15, >> right? If you change the the stat just a little bit, by the way, I've done huge amounts of coverage on this on the channel and even more than I've done personally. Um, if you change the headline to 30 year olds who are both married and have children, >> the stat is not nearly as big a drop.

[00:44:40]So, you can imagine that people that have that are married but don't have children, you know, they're still maybe apartment dwellers and they they like to be able to get up and go. They like to be able to, you know, change locations.

[00:44:50]Uh, but once you get the kids, that kind of changes people's thinking things a bit.

[00:44:55]>> Yep.

[00:44:56]>> Absolutely.

[00:44:57]>> Now, this is from Doomer, so you know, take it with a grain of salt, but his response here is nobody wants to hear this, but this is what needs to happen to the boomers in America to fix the housing market for young people.

[00:45:09]So that's a little bit, you know, aggressive thinking, but um that thought's out there.

[00:45:15]>> Well, it's pretty funny that you put this up. Now, I have talked about it in two shows this week already, but I'll just briefly talk about it again because it's very important and I think uh in CERN in terms of your being an investment adviser and whatnot. Um we are only likely to form about 500 house 500,000 households in the United States this year. Mhm.

[00:45:38]>> And it might not be any more than that next year. It's all going to depend on immigration because household formation organically is zero right now.

[00:45:47]>> Okay. You have boomers that are retiring but and 18 year olds that are $100,000 a year less less than it was the previous year. That that's going to continue 100,000 more less and 100,000 less and 100,000 less over the next five years at least. So when you have two or >> you said $100,000 I think you mean >> $100,000,000 people less 18 year olds less.

[00:46:10]>> Yes.

[00:46:11]>> So if you have fewer people entering uh the age group when you do household formation and you have more people dying at the other end because the boomers are going to start dying off and you don't have much m Oh, and you don't Yeah. and you don't have any migration.

[00:46:26]>> Mhm.

[00:46:27]>> Then you it turns out the the final word here is organic is zero. So you can just look at migration to determine net migration to determine how many household formations there's going to be. Right now we're we're bringing in about a million people net per year.

[00:46:47]That's going to be no more than 500,000 households.

[00:46:51]>> 500,000 households. How many how many units of of uh of residents are we building? About 1.3 million.

[00:46:59]You can see that it doesn't take very long for that statistic to become a real problem for the housing industry and also for the cost of your for the selling price of your house.

[00:47:09]>> And I suppose you could say a similar thing probably happened in China in terms of household formation.

[00:47:13]>> 100%.

[00:47:14]>> Right. And look at the drop.

[00:47:15]>> Yes. And Japan too. Japan's had it too.

[00:47:18]Yep. Yeah.

[00:47:19]>> Korea's next.

[00:47:20]>> Yeah.

[00:47:22]Yep. So, that's going to be something really fun to look forward to over the next few years. Huh.

[00:47:27]>> Well, by the way, in California and maybe nationally because I haven't paid a lot of attention to it over the years, but we've seen 50% crops.

[00:47:35]>> Yeah.

[00:47:35]>> 60% drops in the valley.

[00:47:38]>> I guess I guess that may also then, you know, that that lower cost may may spur on those 30somes to to buy a house, >> right?

[00:47:46]>> And I suppose too that that they may also get to a point where they are having kids.

[00:47:50]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:47:51]and and things can change.

[00:47:52]>> Seems seems unlikely at this point, but yeah, it's possible.

[00:47:55]>> Well, eventually. Yeah.

[00:47:58]>> Yeah. And then, of course, uh here's a chart just, you know, since don't like looking at charts going down all the time, here's a chart that's going up. Um this is Japanese 10-year yields now at 2 and a half%, the highest since 1997.

[00:48:11]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:48:13]>> Um and you may say, that's that's nothing. Two and a half percent. Well, they were at zero, >> right? And I guess >> not too long ago.

[00:48:22]>> They just they raised them this morning.

[00:48:25]>> Um I didn't hear that. I heard that Brazil cut rates.

[00:48:28]>> Yeah. No, I think they raised them again because the currency was just dropping off a cliff.

[00:48:32]>> Okay.

[00:48:32]>> Yeah.

[00:48:33]>> The Brazil situation is interesting.

[00:48:35]Brazil has a central bank rate now at 14 and a half%.

[00:48:39]>> And their inflation's at four. So they have a 10% real rate.

[00:48:42]>> Wow.

[00:48:43]>> Yeah. Now their inflation is at four and and going higher. Uh-huh.

[00:48:48]>> Right. So, it's, you know, some concern, but um 10% real rate. Yeah.

[00:48:54]>> Wow.

[00:48:54]>> Yeah.

[00:48:56]Um if we're worried about the US dollar, uh don't uh offshore US dollar deposits now climbed over 14 trillion.

[00:49:05]Uh you know, the highest we've ever seen.

[00:49:07]>> Yeah.

[00:49:08]>> Uh compared that to the euro, which is less than four trillion. Compare that to everything else, they're all less than a trillion or around a trillion.

[00:49:16]Um, US dollar is where it's at.

[00:49:20]>> Our um, brilliant Secretary of the Treasury has uh, apparently taken the next step to make sure that never goes away. You might remember what he did with Argentina doing that currency swap.

[00:49:34]It worked really, really well. It really helped Argentina and the US made money on it. Now they've opened the same concept up to half a dozen other countries that will be able to take advantage of swaps if they need them.

[00:49:47]>> Y >> where the US will make money and the other country will be helped. Uh so this solidifies the dollar again it doesn't appear to need it but solidify the dollar as the the only reserve currency.

[00:50:01]>> The the thing that I always loved about the dollar the comment was we're the cleanest dirty shirt.

[00:50:07]>> Yeah. Right.

[00:50:08]You know, when you're doing your laundry and it's like, well, I don't have time to wash the clothes. I'll just pick the the cleanest dirty shirt.

[00:50:14]>> That's the dollar, Andy.

[00:50:15]>> There you go. There you go.

[00:50:16]>> Yeah.

[00:50:17]>> Um, what is the US dollar used for internationally? Well, foreign exchange, it accounts for 89% of foreign exchange trades.

[00:50:25]>> Uh, 61% of foreign currency debt issuance, 57% of currency reserves, 54% of export invoicing, so people are trading in dollars.

[00:50:34]>> Yep. and 51% of interbank foreign exchange transactions.

[00:50:39]>> The one that I know the most about is export f export invoicing. And when I started in the business, most people were trading in their local currency. So back in the back in the 60s and 70s, most people were trading their local currency. It made it very very very difficult to do business.

[00:50:56]>> Oh yeah.

[00:50:57]>> Um and so I don't know exactly when. I want to say maybe it was around the 80s.

[00:51:02]Pretty much everybody went to the dollar.

[00:51:05]>> Yeah.

[00:51:06]Yeah. And that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon, >> right?

[00:51:10]>> Last but not least, Randy, I leave you with probably the best image of 2026 so far.

[00:51:16]>> Okay.

[00:51:17]>> Okay. You ready for this?

[00:51:18]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:51:20]>> And like that, he's gone. [laughter] >> He says he says, "And I won't be back.

[00:51:27][laughter] I won't be back next time." I think what he said.

[00:51:30]Yeah.

[00:51:30]>> To the to the press conference. Yeah.

[00:51:32]Yeah.

[00:51:33]>> So, yeah. Farewell. Farewell.

[00:51:38]>> Yes. Well, Mr. Powell, he gets lambasted a lot. Lambasted. Some people say lambasted. Anyway, >> either one.

[00:51:45]>> Anyone. All right. And so, um, I think that he was a steadying hand. He has a steady voice. He's kind of like Bessant that way. um you just trust him for the most part because he sounds like he's making sure that everything's going to be just fine. You know, he missed it really really badly on the, you know, the too late aspect of the inflation, but I don't know. I'm not going to give him an F. I'll give him a I'll give him a C+.

[00:52:15]We'll see historically how that turns out.

[00:52:19]Yeah, I don't give them particularly high grade, but I also sort of believe that the role of the Fed is is too great.

[00:52:29]You know, uh I'd like to see a bit more left up to market forces. Now, I recognize there are times when, you know, during a financial crisis, you need you need the Fed to be able to step in.

[00:52:39]>> Yeah.

[00:52:39]>> And they've done that and they don't seem to be able to unwind the balance sheet. Um, so you know that that's why I'm I'm a bit of a Bitcoin proponent in that regard.

[00:52:49]>> Yeah.

[00:52:50]>> Uh, even though I believe that Bitcoin is not really money, it's actually a security technology, but that's a whole different topic.

[00:52:56]>> Yes. Yes. Spend an hour on that.

[00:52:58]>> Yeah. Um, anyway, so it's a tough job.

[00:53:02]Um, and you know, you're going to make a mistake.

[00:53:07]>> Yeah. Or two or three or more. and he pointed out in the press conference yesterday, he had four supply shocks in a very short period of time. And most Feds never have to go through that.

[00:53:18]>> Yeah.

[00:53:18]>> Um and so balancing out supply shocks, I mean, uh the example I've I think I've given on the show before, but some people three people left in the audience don't know. I was in the bicycle industry for my entire career. Um, I mean, up until this year, I finally uh completely exited the bicycle world this year. And it's a it's a durable good, but it's also transportation. It's also related to oil prices.

[00:53:47]>> And so, you could get these swings where there was what they call bicycle booms where you couldn't let and one was during COVID where you couldn't buy a bicycle. There was none available. You walk into a shop, if you didn't walk into a shop, you had to stand outside the shop and they brought the bike to you from the co, but they were sold out.

[00:54:07]Sold out. Sold out. Sold out. But now, three years later, they're still not selling bikes because of the of the bust.

[00:54:17]>> So, this is this is, you know, one industry, the bicycle industry has to deal with what happens. You know, distributors go out of business, retailers go out of business, they do great for one year, and then they're they're gone. So the same. So now you're looking at the Fed which is having to do this not just with durables, not just with consumer goods, not just with services. Now you know they have to do it with everything internationally also with currency. I mean it's just yeah it's hard hard.

[00:54:47]>> It's an impossible job to me. It's a bit like a situation where you've got a family and let's say you've got one of the couples spending like like money is water.

[00:54:57]>> Right.

[00:54:57]>> Right. And that that's Congress. That's that's politicians, >> right?

[00:55:01]>> Just not caring about whether they're balancing the budget or not, >> right?

[00:55:04]>> And then you've got the responsible one in the family that has to pay the bills, >> right?

[00:55:08]>> Where does the money come from? How do we how do we do this? And that's kind of the Fed.

[00:55:12]>> And you can look at just the Fed and say, "Oh my gosh, you missed a payment.

[00:55:16]You you paid late. You did this. You did that." Well, it's not really the Fed that caused this, right?

[00:55:22]>> It's all this other stuff going on, the the massive spending. So, that's kind of how I view it. Unfortunately, PAL gets, you know, beaten up a lot and I suppose a lot of a lot of it is fair, but to me that the real attention should be looking at at Congress and the spending.

[00:55:36]>> Yeah.

[00:55:36]>> And I feel that, you know, okay, maybe we hold them accountable every four years or a couple years in the case of congressional members. But but do we really have things really changed? No.

[00:55:47]>> Yeah.

[00:55:48]>> We sort of shift from one >> party to the other. They both spend a lot of money maybe on some different things, but the spending has gone up.

[00:55:55]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, constantly.

[00:55:57]Constantly. Well, I don't know. You know, we're not here to just pump Trump all the time on this channel, but he was on the way. Uh he had cut uh he he'd done like Clinton. He had cut actual the the headcount. Um he had cut out whole departments that many people had been hoping for and wishing for for years. uh and and the budget was actually slimming down and the deficit was actually decreasing and the policy of Besson uh was to get back down to 3% of GDP um as the deficit to 3% of GDP. Uh but you know then then he along comes a war and I think it's a smart war. I think it's I think it was the right thing to do at the right time. Now, maybe history will find out that there was really no no uranium or maybe it wasn't at 60% or whatever. I think it's going to turn out it was [laughter] >> unlike the Iraq situation weapons destruction.

[00:56:58]>> Yes. Yes. But in this case, I think it's true. And then this morning, I woke up thinking this, why is Iran fighting so hard?

[00:57:11]>> Okay.

[00:57:13]Yeah. Well, if they don't care about projecting power, if they don't care about being able to kill Israel, if they don't care about getting a an a a a an atomic bomb so that they can be more effective at those two things, well, those would be the only those are the only reasons I can think of why they need to go to these lengths, these risks in order to uh in order to um secure those Yeah. I mean, I think they would want to try to preserve their ability to do that if they could.

[00:57:48]>> Yeah.

[00:57:49]>> Yeah.

[00:57:49]>> If they were only interested in defense and just defending themselves, well, there's lots of other ways to do that.

[00:57:54]And all of their neighbors, >> every one of their neighbors, that's what they do is they have a defense. And so the they're the only ones that are trying to create an offensive capability. and we're just saying no, we don't want you to have the offensive capability to uh send missiles to Paris or to Israel or etc. And um that seems like a reasonable request.

[00:58:19]>> Yeah. And I think just from putting my finance head on, if you know if you take the political element out and back to my comment that either political party, they spend too much. It's just on different things. Mhm.

[00:58:29]>> And so you could argue that well Trump's spending this money on on war or whatever and you may again you may justify his actions and that's fine.

[00:58:37]>> Mhm.

[00:58:38]>> But at the end of the day the spending is still there, >> right?

[00:58:42]>> And so you know how do we deal with that? Now the good news as I think is to that chart earlier about productivity and the [clears throat] booming growth in AI. Mhm.

[00:58:53]>> That's our way out is just to grow the economy so that the spending now is then you know that much smaller.

[00:58:59]>> Right. Right.

[00:59:00]>> The question is will Congress be able to expand their spending faster than than the economy grows?

[00:59:08]>> Yeah.

[00:59:08]>> And I guess if history's any guide the answer is yes.

[00:59:10]>> Yes. And then uh there's then we again could spend another hour on it but then there's the whole debate about whether it actually matters at all long term. Um uh yet it seems like the place that it would matter is that the interest consumes stuff that could be put to better use.

[00:59:29]>> Yeah.

[00:59:29]>> And so that becomes I think the the the factor that I pay the most attention to.

[00:59:34]The rest of it I'm not sure it really matters because at the end of the day the United States their balance sheet is unbelievably big compared to their to the total debt. Um, and you just have to look at the if you we did the marktomarket on gold that alone would change the balance sheet like in a >> if it's there Randy if it's still there.

[00:59:59]>> If it's still there >> with that note, >> well, I was just going to say just just to put uh comment I guess on what you just said. If you think about it, you know, money is just purely a human construct.

[01:00:11]>> Yeah.

[01:00:12]>> There's nothing in physics that says that this is money, that's money.

[01:00:16]So you're right in the sense that what's a deficit? What's a what's a surplus?

[01:00:21]It's just it's just an accounting thing.

[01:00:23]>> Yeah.

[01:00:24]>> And it turns out that in the business world, accounting for stuff is kind of important, >> right?

[01:00:28]>> But at the nation state level, it's kind of like, okay, who who cares?

[01:00:32]>> Yeah.

[01:00:33]>> You can overspend to your heart's content. It's like, well, we're the world's superpower.

[01:00:38]you know that that affords us certain abilities to overspend and that will continue for as long as we're the world superpower, >> right?

[01:00:49]>> Yep. All true.

[01:00:51]>> So that's I guess one of the benefits of of having that. But >> yeah, I mean the money is just a it's just a shared abstraction.

[01:01:00]>> Yep. Yep. All right. Well, now that we've solved all the problems of the entire world, CERN, once again, I mean, we do this every week.

[01:01:07]>> Every week. every [laughter] Thank you as always for coming on and sharing with us and uh bringing us by far the most visually beautiful No, that's not a high bar on my channel.

[01:01:19]Anyway, bringing us really great slides.

[01:01:22]It's [laughter] and as always, it's been great talking to you.

[01:01:26]>> Thanks, Randy.