Queensland El Nino Developing & 7 Day Forecast 13/05/2026

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:01]Good afternoon, Queensland subscribers and YouTube followers. It is Wednesday, the 13th of May, 2026.

[00:00:09]But, the first thing I want to look at and show you guys is the El Niño that is rapidly developing now out in the Pacific.

[00:00:16]It will become a significant feature over the next 3 to 6 months and impact our weather um quite significantly, I'd expect, uh based off historical standards and obviously um what happens when when one develops.

[00:00:33]You can see out here, I'll just quickly run through it. I won't do this video solely. This is also the weekly video for the forecast state, but I'll just run through the El Niño as well, quickly. All right. So, out here you can see that that big orange circle area is um above average sea surface temperatures.

[00:00:51]Below the surface, there's also a significant uh warm mass, if you like, and body of water underneath the surface, which is rising to the top, and that is aiding the El Niño to rapidly develop out here in the Pacific. It's right across from areas 1 and 2 in the far east, um 3 and 3.4 in the central. Our 3.4 is the main key indicator, and then 4 over here in in further in the west towards Australia. You can also see that there are warm sea surface temperatures uh pretty much right across the Pacific basin, in the north, the south, and over here in the east, in the Coral Sea and Tasman Sea.

[00:01:30]So, there's a lot of warm water kicking around out there, and it is um um developing rapidly. Uh basically, I'll show you quickly on here what happens. And they got these cooler waters uh starting to develop around Western Australia and Northern Australia. That's quite typical. This southern mass is probably from the low that came through last week, and it just picked up some um cold eddies through there, some upwelling, and a bit of cold air on the surface as well.

[00:01:56]So, basically, what happens is of the moisture coming off from the central Pacific in a La Niña, uh and feeding it into, say, northern Australia and eastern eastern Australia, that's Queensland and New South Wales, eventually this hot air out here in the Pacific rises up and drags the air from us to that area. So, we'd be more likely to become under a more southwest to westerly dry air mass developing across land areas.

[00:02:26]Um and it brings a lot less rainfall, let me tell you, when it's coming across from the south of the land.

[00:02:31]That's typically what happens during an El Niño.

[00:02:34]Let's and I'll keep you up to date with these. We've just sent a big email out as well, a very detailed email to to all our members and premium members with all this information on it. Let's have a look at the chart here. This is the forecast chart from the BOM, uh with basically, um the 3.4 region, which is the key area, and it's showing you here that we are likely to reach El Niño thresholds later in May here, or or early June. Just in the for the rest of May, it's warming now, it's still about 0.3 of a degree, it's just out here, below the 0.8 mark.

[00:03:11]We we It is warming very quickly, though.

[00:03:13]Um in the past 6 weeks from from April until now, it has warmed up 1 degree.

[00:03:19]So, it was way down here, zero minus 0.5, and now it's like plus point point five, which is significant. Another, you know, another 6 weeks and we're looking at 1.5, which is a strong El Niño, and then two's very strong.

[00:03:33]A majority of the model data across the world, uh for the past few months, has been continually suggesting that the temperature anomaly in El Niño in the Niño 3.4 region in the central Pacific will exceed plus 2 degrees above normal.

[00:03:51]That is classed as a very strong El Nino event. I refuse to use super El Nino. It is not an official term. It's like, "Hey, Superman. Holy dooley."

[00:04:03]We'd rather just use the correct terms here and it would be a very strong event. And that is likely at this point to develop anytime from August onwards and continue into the rest of 2026.

[00:04:16]What does that do? Well, it typically produces a below has a much greater risk of producing below average rainfall across large parts of Australia, particularly northern. Now, this is an actual chart from the EC model showing you the long-range forecast.

[00:04:34]You can see here that across northern and eastern parts of Australia are forecast over the next 3 months and and and 3 to 6 months is below average rainfall. That is in the lower tercile.

[00:04:45]So, the lower lower averages of rainfall.

[00:04:50]And southeast Queensland here is right up there between 70 and 100% of being very much below average rainfall.

[00:04:58]Then other areas of Queensland in particular are in that 60 to 70% range of being at the lower tercile.

[00:05:06]Some of the coastal areas may be okay, especially southeast coast here where some months or showers will continue for the next few weeks and it's bringing some relief there. But all inland areas and especially southern inland Queensland, this is concerning New South Wales in here. We're already 5 to 6 months behind the eight ball with very very well below potentially heading for record below average rainfall out here for a period of time. The native trees are dying out here, guys. It's that bad.

[00:05:33]And down through Stanthorpe in New South Wales. So, that's that's a bit of a a quick picture of of the El Nino and why we're looking at it, why we're we're actually concerned about this one.

[00:05:44]Um and it's not necessarily that it's going to become a very strong event.

[00:05:50]It's the fact that the atmosphere is already responding with dry conditions and it's most likely to hold or get worse for the next 3 to 6 months. So All right, we'll move over here to the satellite imagery now.

[00:06:03]And down here near New Zealand, there is a massive one of the strongest high pressure systems you get at this time of year, 1041 HPA.

[00:06:14]Down here in the Tasman Sea and it is constantly driving long fetch all the way from New Zealand to Australia. Long fetch southeasterly winds onto the New South Wales and Queensland coast. Now, most of the rainfall has been occurring just here along the southeast Queensland coast. I actually can't even tell you really why.

[00:06:34]The the showers really favor between Fraser Island and Coolangatta here. Gold Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast particularly. Been just getting non-stop showers for weeks on end now. Been forecasting every single day for members and I know they're there. But I want to point out that they don't go very far inland at all. They are useless. They're giving you guys a green garden down there.

[00:06:56]But it's not doing anyone else any good and it's starting to annoy you guys. I already know that. We do get some convection pushing land further, but again, they're dry clouds. They're not producing any rainfall. There has been and there is a little bit of mid-level troughing out here. It has been up around Mount Isa. Now it's down around Birdsville and it's slipping down into the southwest and and central parts of Australia just there along the SA New South Wales border. It is a mid-level trough with slight instability through the mid-levels. It's a little bit of moisture there, but falls have mostly been light, like less than 5 mil a day.

[00:07:30]So not much doing in that. Just probably enough to keep things a little bit damp or green if you want them.

[00:07:36]That will continue for a few days. Well, let's go and have a look at the forecast the actual forecast now. I want to show you the size of this high. It's monstrous. It's huge. Just the central region alone is almost from from southern New Zealand, the South Island to Tasmania in that 940 uh I'm sorry, 1,048 hPa. And you can see look at the facts all the way Look at those ridge lines all the way across.

[00:07:59]And you just get It picks up moisture, interacts with the land, cause a bit of lift and convection along the coast and and New South Wales and southeast Queensland coast in particular just get these showers.

[00:08:09]Probably because the pattern the winds do run more parallel along the rest of the Queensland coast, the central coast in particularly, you only get much lighter showers there. And then of course they come a little bit more onshore, and you got the orographic lifting up there for the north tropical coast, so showers increase up there.

[00:08:25]You can see that on That's today and then tomorrow nothing changes. Friday, minimal changes. It's still there. It's still driving. Uh and then Saturday we start to see a trough come in in the west. I'll talk about that in a minute.

[00:08:38]I'll zoom in on that. In a sec we'll have a look. We'll head over here and we'll have a look uh currently at the weekly rainfall. Let me just pull these back to the right numbers here from Weather Watch.

[00:08:51]Um and you can see that we're we are we are seeing rainfall starting to appear through inland areas as well. Now this will be from a trough. So from northwest, central west to southeast Queensland, we are starting to see uh reasonable indications of some rain. Now southeast southern inland Queensland, southeast Queensland uh need this badly.

[00:09:15]Uh Warrego, Maranoa as well.

[00:09:18]Uh and look, western are not going to say no to to any rainfall ever. So there are signs that over over the weekend in particular Monday that a system comes through and it produces right now. For the totals, the onshore showers are likely to continue to produce onshore wind, so likely to produce light showers indefinitely along the North Tropical Coast with accumulation totals there of of 25 to 30 40 mm, okay? Cairns may be a bit lighter around the 10 mark.

[00:09:46]Central Biloela, Townsville, Bowen, just the way the lie of the land there. And then Mackay and Rocky, 5 to 10 tops. Yeppoon, Mackay with Sunday's 5 to 10.

[00:09:58]But then we start to get into Southeast Queensland, we have those those onshore showers going about 5 mil a day. And then we have the system coming through. So, about Bundaberg south, you got the coastal showers initially, then the system coming through. Southern inland, this is for the week, 5 to 10. It does get a bit patchy through Southern inland, but we hope it might pick up. It might drop off. We've just got to wait and see what it does. These systems can be finicky at this time of year. As they come through from the west, they can move too quick and lose moisture and weaken out and do all sorts of funny strange things.

[00:10:28]But there is a little bit of hope there.

[00:10:30]Southwest, we're starting to be more confident in that because it is sort of around that Saturday Sunday mark. So, not that many days ahead. Um and you can see there widespread falls there of of 25 to potentially falls of 50 through the Channel Country. So, could be interesting. Even Longreach there could be up around the 25 plus mark. Winton and Dajarra as well.

[00:10:49]So, that's good. Let's Let's have a look at the daily. Um I'll go tomorrow. We'll go Thursday. You can see just coastal showers, little bit of fluff in there from that mid-level trough, not much doing. Friday, light showers, really light isolated showers. Now, I say there could be showers on the coast, but but obviously if you're only getting 1 or 2 mils, they're light and patchy.

[00:11:09]They're very isolated, light and patchy.

[00:11:11]Um North Tropical Coast always gets a bit more. Here we go, Saturday.

[00:11:17]Saturday out until 9:00 a.m. Sunday. So, it's 24 hours from Saturday morning.

[00:11:22]9:00 a.m. And you can see that trough coming in from the west. A good band of rain and scattered showers and rain areas um through the this parts of the central uh northwest and and channel country. So, south of Mount Isa, west of Windorah on Saturday, 25 to potentially with falls in there in there 50 mils. And then again, who knows?

[00:11:43]>> [snorts] >> Uh that wind down here hasn't been doing me any favors on the dusty ground, I can tell you that.

[00:11:49]Nose [snorts] air, she's got a um sinus infection. So, ahem anyway, so [clears throat] that's Saturday. And I'll quickly show you over here again on the on the windy chart. Uh let me zoom in there and you can see the trough falling. The high pressure system still trying to produce a few showers down the coast. And winds turn more north northeasterly inland and feeds this trough. But, you can see there on Saturday, it is quite solid at this point. It has a good band of rain and scattered showers coming in on Saturday.

[00:12:17]Let's have a look at Sunday, shall we?

[00:12:19]Sunday, loading. [clears throat] All right, loaded.

[00:12:23]All right, so now it's only slowly moving. It does extend further north into the northwest, so through Mount Isa up to almost Burke Town and [snorts] the and the Gulf region. It does go up into the Gulf country there. Uh down through the central west along range and southern inland. So, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, Winton, from 9:00 a.m. on Sunday, it will move east. That rain band wants to hold. And it starts to come into southern inland parts with some showers. And we we're starting to see that the onshore winds interact with a little bit of this instability out here.

[00:12:55]Just sort of starting to reach the coast as well with those showers increasing a fraction. Still 5 to 10 mm on the coast there on Sunday.

[00:13:03]I think inland parts of SEQ, we're going to have to wait till the main trough comes Wide Bay Burnett. Still a bit light there down near St. George and Balonne. Pretty light. 5 to 10 maybe, and the rest is not much. But, we'll just have to wait and see if it comes through.

[00:13:15]So, that's on Sunday. We'll flick back here. Let's have a look at Sunday. Look at it come across across slowly into Monday morning there. Nice bit of a low pressure trough, bit of a front pulling these easterly winds in off the coast and it's producing some rain.

[00:13:31]Let us have a look at Monday.

[00:13:34]This has increased lately.

[00:13:37]It wasn't this good a a few days ago, but I'm starting to see some better falls potentially. Not going to lock this in yet.

[00:13:46]Starting to see some better falls across the southeast southeast Queensland quarter on Monday as that system comes through. So, parts of Darling Downs maybe 15 to 25 mil, maybe. Let's not lock this in. Let's just keep it that way. It could go 5 to 10 for now. Coastal areas a bit better, but there's potential here for 10 to 25 across southeast Queensland on Monday as that system comes through. I just don't want to lock it in yet because I don't want to get hopes and promises up and then we completely miss out, even myself.

[00:14:22]But, it's something. We'll take anything and it's there. You can see that there on Monday and then on Tuesday it moves offshore and much drier air mass comes in behind it because of a large high building over South Australia pushing much drier south to southwesterly winds through and you can see there the full clearance on Monday, on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.

[00:14:46]So, you're going to get these fronts come through at this time of year. It just depends on how much rain they can potentially hold and maintain as they keep coming further across. A lot of the times they tend to weaken slightly and and we we get bugger all or they move too quickly and come across too quick and they just skim through as a shower.

[00:15:07]Anyway, there's a bit of hope with this one. Temperatures minimums are not too bad. They're up a bit at the moment cuz we haven't had a cold front like last week. Daytime temperatures are staying very very similar due to the high pressure system and the and the onshore winds sort of around your mid-20s along the coast. Um northern parts of Queensland, with the peninsula Gulf, northwest district, still pushing up there over 30.

[00:15:31]That won't change until, say, Saturday, and then the western parts under the cloud and rain, Saturday and Sunday, things will cool off a little bit out there under cloud and rain from the northwest to the southwest areas.

[00:15:44]And then, of course, as that system comes through on Monday, temperatures will drop under the cloud and rain at this time of year. There's not a lot of that sunlight kicking around. In fact, we're only about 5 weeks away from the shortest day of the year, so so our warmth is is really starting to um be reduced now.

[00:16:00]But not much change after Tuesday.

[00:16:03]Um the cooler winds arrive and we're sort in the low low 20s across southern Queensland there on Tuesday.

[00:16:08]Don't forget, guys, head over and log in to our website and app if you are an existing member and check the forecast.

[00:16:16]Um the lot the El Niño's been updated.

[00:16:19]Forecasts are still on there every day, no matter what's happening. And if you are just watching as a YouTube follower, um um maybe consider subscribing to our weather service for $69 a year.

[00:16:32]Um once per year, that fee. And or you can cancel whenever you like. Existing members, you are still locked in at 49 or less for life of the subscription if you maintain an update and keep it updated with payments and stuff like that. All right. Thanks for watching, guys. Stay safe and talk to you on the next one.

[00:16:52]Hopefully a bit of rain coming. Fingers crossed here. It's it's shocking.

[00:16:56]Um I just went and had to purchase of an expensive RO reverse osmosis system to treat our bore water so that we have our water security here at home at Leslie Dam.

[00:17:09]Um the trucking of water is going to be difficult to get and very expensive, so we've um we've shelled out on a on an know our that can treat dam and bore water. It's working really well. It's going flat out at the back at the moment. It's been running for 4 days straight. We're making about 2,000 L a day um of pure fresh water. Cleaner than tank, cleaner than get out of the bottle.

[00:17:31]Uh the test so far. So, it's it's working really well. That's the measures we've had to go to out here now to maintain our water security and looking at the long-range forecast over the next 6 months, it's something that we decided to invest in because it will no doubt pay for itself um tenfold in the long run and and even before that, you know, even in the next probably 3 to 4 months, it'll already pay for itself. So, that's what we're doing out here. Stay safe, guys. Thanks for watching and see you on the next one.