Multiple Rounds of Severe Weather Possible Sunday through Tuesday

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]If you take a look outside your window, chances are you'll notice it looks a whole lot different than it did this time yesterday. Definitely a lot more gray for many. Ethan, with that, what are we keeping an eye on tonight? Yeah, we have some severe weather chances as we head into tonight. Some parts of Michigan have already seen some severe weather today, particularly over closer to Midland and Bay Counties, just southeast of our region. But, as we look over the bridge this evening, we are seeing that rain come down at a pretty good rate. So, just about everybody is going to be seeing rain tonight, but we are watching a particular cell that's right over Lake Michigan right now, producing quite a bit of lightning and thunder, and also some heavier rainfall.

[00:00:40]Not impossible we could see some gusty winds, and also some large hail out of that as well. And not even impossible we could see a tornado out of it as well.

[00:00:49]So, something we're going to be watching very closely as we head into this evening. More just lighter to moderate rain as you head further to our north, but there's that cell right now that we're watching closely, moving closer to Manistee and Benzie Counties here soon.

[00:01:04]So, we'll be updating you if any severe warnings are issued. And we do have that severe threat for tonight with a marginal risk for our northern areas, and then souther south closer to Kalamazoo, I should say. Most of us under a slight risk though, south of M-55 and north of I-96. And so, that's where we have the highest threat of severe weather this evening. Just about everybody though in our area has a chance of seeing more severe weather tomorrow with a slight risk for all of lower Michigan, and then even a portion of the UP as well, with a marginal risk closer to Sault Ste. Marie. And that's not it either. Then, we have another chance coming on Tuesday with our final round on the way for that day. But then, we'll see quieter conditions after that, but it will be noticeably cooler. As we carry you through the rest of that the evening and overnight hours, we will be seeing couple of those storms, and again, some large hail, damaging winds, and even an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. That will move out of the area as that warm front lifts north as we head into tonight, and even a little bit clearing takes place later in the overnight hours, but then another line moves in just after sunrise on Monday, giving us another chance of showers and storms. If that line is stronger than what this is showing, that could limit the severe threat as we head into tomorrow evening. However, right now, this is the line we're watching closely.

[00:02:25]Mostly, this model run has it developing a little bit later than some other model runs, which would be good news if this is the case, and would just be affecting some of those eastern areas, but we'll be watching that very closely. Again, this is 2:30 in the afternoon tomorrow when we could be seeing that. That will gradually wind down as we head toward the evening tomorrow night, and then yet another line moves in as we head into Tuesday as well. So, several lines of showers and storms on the way that could produce any of those threats between large hail, damaging winds, and even an isolated tornado. By Tuesday evening, we do start to quiet down, though. Rainfall amounts will vary with some areas getting as much as quarter of an inch, others getting more than 2 in of rain with all of these events. And again, don't don't focus on the numbers, as these numbers could very well change, and also where the placement of this rain is could very well change as well.

[00:03:15]Even with the rain, though, we are seeing that pollen high on trees right now, so make sure if you do have allergies, that you do take that allergy allergy medicine or stay inside if possible. Grass and ragweed on the low side right now, and no smoke to worry about. As we head up to the north tonight, scattered showers and storms as we drop down in the upper 40s to low 50s. Most of us seeing those temperatures actually pretty seasonal for this part of May, and we'll be seeing those showers and storms on and off through the evening. Most of this will wind down by midnight, but then another round moves in tomorrow morning.

[00:03:50]Up to the north tomorrow, those scattered showers and storms on and off most of the day. 60s and 70s. Keep in mind it won't be raining the entire day tomorrow. 80s possible for Grayling and Mio, warm day. Alpena at 82 as well. 78 in Traverse City. Those scattered rain and thunderstorms, 80 in Kalkaska, 83 in Clare, 78 in Baldwin with those scattered showers and storms, some of which could be severe. That severe threat also for Tuesday and then we cooled out noticeably, even some frost potential by Thursday with lows in the 30s, highs in the 50s. We do warm up beyond that though as we head toward Memorial Day weekend.