Episode 71: How Many Republicans Will Lose in Nebraska? w/ Aaron Sanderford of Nebraska Examiner

追加: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]Welcome to the Inside Elections podcast, where we analyze elections in a nonpartisan, datadriven, and accessible way. In this episode, we're focused on the very center of the country, Nebraska. We'll look at the best chance for an independent to get elected to the Senate in years. We'll analyze one of the Democrats best takeover chances in the House, and we'll look at how close Democrats are to losing the chance to win an electoral college vote in the Corn Husker State. We'll do it all with Aaron Sanderford of the Nebraska Examiner. Buckle up.

[00:00:47]I'm Nathan Gonzalez, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, the go-to place for nonpartisan analysis for more than 40 years. and I spent a recent weekend in Amish country in Lancaster County, which is in Pennsylvania's ninth district, represented by Republican Lloyd Smucker. And I'm Jacob Rebastian, deputy editor of Inside Elections. and I am headed to Scottsdale, Arizona for a speech tomorrow which is located in Arizona's first congressional district represented for now by Republican Dave Schweikert and a big old tossup on the inside elections house ratings board >> and probably slightly smaller Amish community in that area.

[00:01:26]>> I I would imagine so. I don't think you know Lloyd Smucker I believe actually born and raised in an Amish household.

[00:01:34]Um, uh, I don't think that's the case for Dave Schweer, but you never know.

[00:01:39]>> But if you see him, you should ask him just to confirm.

[00:01:42]>> Yeah, we'll see.

[00:01:51]>> Before we bring in Aaron, let's go through some headlines. Jacob.

[00:01:54]>> Oh gosh. Where to begin? A crazy week for redistricting in Virginia. of the state supreme court invalidated the Democraticled redistricting referendum that would have radically altered the Commonwealth's congressional map and helped Democrats pick up as many as four House seats. The decision is a setback for national Democrats, but the party still has two very good pickup opportunities this fall in the first and second districts. and subscribers can read all about one of those seats, Virginia second in the most recent issue of the newsletter. So, if you're not a subscriber, check it out and you can read it. In Florida, Republicans in the legislature and Governor Ron DeSantis are trying to gain four additional seats with a new map that carves up Democratic seats in Tampa, Orlando, and South Florida. Uh the dust hasn't quite settled yet on where candidates are running, but it's important to remember that the elections still have to take place. Um, with the current political climate and President Trump's poor job approval rating, Republicans may not achieve their maximum goals or maximum gains this year.

[00:03:02]>> Unlike a lot of the other redistricting efforts we've seen, there are no gimmies on the new Florida map. The most Republican leaning new seat that uh Republicans created is the ninth district, which went from being uh Democraticleaning to likely Republican, but uh don't count Congressman Darren Sodto out just quite yet. We'll see how things shake out there. In DC, the US Supreme Court made its decision in Calala versus Louisiana, and that has kicked off a scramble among southern states, also eager to redraw their maps uh to dismantle some or all of their remaining uh majority black congressional districts that were previously protected under uh the Voting Rights Act. Tennessee voted to break up its last remaining majority black seat, the Memphis-based ninth district, currently held by Democrat Steve Cohen.

[00:03:56]Alabama and Louisiana are attempting to redraw their maps to remove at least one Democraticleaning seat each, even though their primaries are already ongoing, and many people have already voted in them.

[00:04:08]We'll see how both of those efforts shake out due to ongoing legal challenges. And in South Carolina, the state senate actually pushed back on a a redistricting effort with a vote a couple days ago, but the story isn't over yet. Governor Henry McMaster is looking for workarounds to bring the legislature back into session and pass a map that would push out longtime Democratic Congressman Jim Clyurn from the Palmetto State's only remaining Democratic district. I >> think the lesson here is to stay tuned.

[00:04:40]Stay attuned to insidelections.com because this is very fluid and there could be news that happens from when we record this on Thursday early afternoon to when you're actually listening. So we will keep track of things uh um on the on our on the website.

[00:04:55]>> Yeah.

[00:04:56]>> And in Maine, Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the US Senate race, effectively seating the nomination to Graham Platner, who can now focus exclusively on defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins. Even though Collins is a Republican in a Democraticleaning state, Democrats haven't been able to defeat her before.

[00:05:14]And now they're consolidating behind a candidate who has had to answer for whether he knew his chest tattoo uh was a Nazi symbol. Uh Jacob will have a deep dive on this race in the next issue of Inside Elections. This is pretty much a must-win for repo for Democrats to get to the Senate majority. And it is not going to be easy.

[00:05:34]>> No, not at all. roads. Where we're going, we don't need roads.

[00:05:41]>> Let's look at the calendar. Look ahead on the calendar. Jacob, what's on tap?

[00:05:45]Next week on May 19th, there are primaries in Alabama. Uh with a little asterisk, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Uh we've also got in just a couple days the Senate primary in Louisiana. uh the House primaries in that state unilaterally delayed due to the ongoing redistricting. And on May 26th, we have a big Texassized Senate runoff in the Republican party between Senator John Cornin, State Attorney General Ken Paxton. And then next month on June 2nd, there is a huge slate of primaries. Uh Super June's Day is what some folks are calling it. um including California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and the biggest one of all, South Dakota.

[00:06:43]I want to welcome our guest for today's episode, Aaron Sanderford. Aaron is the editor-inchief of the Nebraska Examiner after stints at the Omaha World Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, and KMTV, the CBS affiliate in Omaha. So, you're the perfect guest for today, Erin. Welcome.

[00:07:00]>> Thank you, fellas. I I'm I'm actually just really trying to recover from election night that went to 4 a.m. And of course, we had one that took an extra day. I'm glad they called it last night when the AP called it. I I think I would have bought that guy some uh a few beers.

[00:07:15]>> Well, I think they're friends of the podcast over there, so we can we can arrange that if uh >> we need to get that done.

[00:07:23]>> Yeah. U. Well, Aaron, before we talk about all the races that just happened and are happening there, uh, what congressional district did you grow up in?

[00:07:32]>> Uh, I grew up in Kucky's second district in Bowling Green, Kentucky, about an hour north of Nashville. Uh, it it, uh, has the weird distinction of of being a extraordinarily conservative college town. Uh, it is a rarity, a public college town that is fairly conservative.

[00:07:53]And what did you what did a young Aaron growing up in Kentucky second district think that he would be doing for a living at this stage?

[00:08:00]>> You know, I wish I could say I didn't know I'd be doing a little bit of this, but my dad was a a college women's basketball coach and uh I like all 14 to 16 year old kids wanted to piss off my dad and uh nobody pissed him off like reporters. And so when I was like 15 years old or 14 years old, he hung up the he hung up the phone at a at a breakfast table and started cursing. And I decided right then and there, whatever that was, I needed to be one.

[00:08:30]>> That's a pretty amazing origin story. U when did the politics were you going to be a sports reporter or when did the politics come into things? I I I started as a sports reporter and enjoyed it a lot, but um it started to eat into my love of the game >> and sports became less of a re relaxation and a recovery thing and more of a chore and I needed sports as the outside like release. Politics, it was just more that I was always around it.

[00:08:59]Um and you know it some of it is when people tell you you can't you choose to.

[00:09:07]And and so like all of us, we kind of hit those marks in our early careers where we get a chance and it worked. And that's about it. I mean, I I've come up like all of you guys probably. I covered county government, growth and development, city hall, every step along the way and eventually just kind of fell into covering a Senate race and loved it.

[00:09:28]>> And how so how long have you actually been out in Nebraska and what drew you there in in the first place? Was it the sports? Was it the politics? Where did that come in into play?

[00:09:39]>> Actually, yeah, actually I was um I was an intern at the Lincoln Journal Star, uh the newspaper there. Uh met my wife uh when I was an intern and um I have spent the last, you know, 20 years trying to move her east. Uh and I think we've made it 45 miles. So I think this is about as far this is about as far east as a Lincoln girl is going to go.

[00:10:00]>> So >> I thought you did it for the elevation, the terrain.

[00:10:06]I needed the hills and trees of Omaha to make me feel a little bit more like Kentucky.

[00:10:12]>> Well, a lot is happening uh in Nebraska.

[00:10:15]So, let's let's dive in.

[00:10:18]Earlier this week, Democrats nominated Cindy Burbank in Nebraska's US Senate race, but they are excited that she promptly plans to drop out of the race because Democrats are getting behind independent candidate Dan Osborne in order to defeat Republican Senator Pete Rickettts. Let's listen to a couple of ads from the race.

[00:10:37]>> Pete Richards cut our taxes >> big time >> and provided billions in property tax relief.

[00:10:44]>> Pete deployed forces to the border and always backs the blue. He kept businesses open >> and got kids back in school.

[00:10:50]>> Now Pete's fighting just as hard in the Senate as he did as governor.

[00:10:53]>> And he's giving them hell for Nebraska.

[00:10:56]>> Thanks, Pete. Thanks, Pete.

[00:10:58]>> Thanks, Pete.

[00:10:59]>> Thanks, Pete. Thanks, Pete. Our Senator Pete Ricketts.

[00:11:04]>> I'm Pete Rickettts and I approve this message.

[00:11:07]>> Please, if you're watching this, give me money cuz I hate making these videos.

[00:11:13]Hey, Dan Osborne here in the Corn Ocar State. Maybe people will give us the 10 bajillion dollars. We stop making these videos cuz Pete Rickus doesn't have to make these videos.

[00:11:28]Osborne had the element of surprise last cycle against a underfunded and underwhelming incumbent in Senator Deb Fischer and he still came up almost seven points short. He's not going to sneak up on Rickettts this time and Ricketts has almost unlimited money. So my question is Aaron, does this race end up the same way uh for Osourne?

[00:11:49]>> Yeah, I I I think it's a very different race. Uh Deb Fischer is much more of a workhorse type senator. She shows up and she does her thing and she's more into the work than into the campaigning. She had one really really hard campaign originally that split three ways very much like the uh CD2 House race did here in Nebraska this last cycle where there was two attacking each other and she kind of sailed up the middle. So Osborne was really her first significant challenger who aimed at her. Um I I think this is a other than a legislative race, but I I think this is a very different race in that um Ricketts is a known commodity. He's baked in. There's almost nobody that doesn't already have an opinion on him. And in a year where the electorate just looks like it's in a mood to throw the bums out, no matter what their party are, um it's just being a baked known commodity makes you more vulnerable. um and and Osborne's uh appeal, you know, of being not really a polished candidate. I would argue he's fairly polished now. He's run for Senate twice. Um but uh I mean, he he comes across as the guy you want to have a beer with and um Ricketts comes across as the former governor.

[00:13:07]>> Well, I I want to ask about something you said there because I remember na Nathan and I sat down with Dan Osborne.

[00:13:15]This would have been in late 2023, maybe early 2024, soon after he got into the race. And he was really green in that interview. Um, and it was interesting to me to watch his development as a candidate over the course of that campaign and then to see him come back for this race and and I agree that he, you know, he is much more polished now and his operation is a lot more professional than it was at the beginning. I guess my question to you is like is that a net positive for him or is it a net negative if if people are looking for something more untraditional, unorthodox out of out of their politician? How does he kind of balance the the like lack of polish or or varnish with the necessity of running a fullyfledged, highly competitive Senate race? Yeah, I I think he actually needed his operation to be a little slicker this time because he's facing what might be Nebraska's best political machine. Uh the Ricketts team has run legislative races for people, has helped with uh almost uh almost every facet of Nebraska political life has been touched in some way by that Ricketts political machine because they can direct money where it needs to go and they are unafraid to leave people's intrails on the ground if they need leaving. and and so it is a little bit different uh this time. He he's not facing someone who doesn't want to acknowledge him until you know 3 months until the election.

[00:14:44]He's facing someone who will who tried to brand him on the first day he got in.

[00:14:49]>> I mean it's just a little different environment. He needed a little more polish and and a more rapid response team to be able to deal with the negativity he's likely to face both from the Ricketts team and from outside groups that are aligned with some of their interests. Well, >> let's talk a little bit about the the money or the fundraising piece. I remember last cycle when a number of Republican senators and even Republican sultans were a little peeved at Senator Fiser because they were being forced or told that they had to give to her campaign. It's a little different cycle now since Ricketts is so wealthy. Um what does that mean in terms of ads? Is there a risk of oversaturation of ads or that or is Rickettt's wealth does it help him make sure he has the money but also it's a negative because he's you know he's extremely wealthy.

[00:15:40]>> Yeah. I mean his family founded the thing that became TDI trade that Charles Schwab ended up buying. Uh and they own the Chicago Cubs. So I mean this is not like there's wealth and then there's wealth. Um and and and they money is not their object, but they haven't self-funded in a really long time and they haven't really had to. And so and so it's it's a little different when you're the two-term governor and you have so many political friends at that point. I I think the fundraising thing that shocked people last time was what Osbbor I'm trying to remember right off the cuff, but was it $18 million he was able to I mean it was some insane number that he was able to touch uh as a firsttime candidate, which just does not happen. Um I I do think there is a little bit of a of a structural uh issue of trying to figure out if the national Republicans are really going to have to defend Nebraska. And what I would say is uh in this race if they want to hold on to this seat in this moment they might.

[00:16:40]I mean it is it is a different I mean no matter how much money Rickettts can activate or you know have friends that that they can get uh an unlimited spigot to Osborne or a fairly unlimited spigot to Osborne means parody and par means you know at this point uh a whole lot of people are talking about affordability.

[00:16:59]Who who sounds better? I mean I'll ask you this. You you know you've been around the game, Nathan. I mean, who who who has the easier pitch in a time of economic anger? The guy who is a steamfitter or the guy whose family owns the Chicago Cubs?

[00:17:15]>> Yeah. Yeah. and and and we're finding at a time, I'll use Senator Casey of Pennsylvania as an example, where that having a family lineage or having a experience in politics kind of went from a net positive probably to a net negative uh at a time when people are dissatisfied with government, politicians, the status quo. And so I could see where Ricketts, you know, where the former governor, current senator, where that longevity, you know, ends up being a a negative for him.

[00:17:47]>> Yeah. And and a bigger thing that a lot of people who don't really cover Nebraska regularly don't see is that Ricketts is also still dealing with some fallout from the 2022 governor's race.

[00:17:57]He got pretty heavily involved in a GOP primary there uh to help Governor Jim Pan win that primary race over Charles Herbster. And there are some herbster supporters, particularly in Nebraska's third district and in that panhandle, the rural largely sprawling third district that often decides Republican primaries. They they there's still some hurt feelings and anger about his meddling in that primary that to this day create situations of opportunity for Osborne to uh recreate the Ben Nelson coalition where you just don't lose as bad in the third district as you would expect to. Yeah, I think it was interesting to see last cycle when you charted where Osborne overperformed Kla Harris. Uh the third district was by far his best relative performance. He did better than her everywhere, but it was his his his improvement was, you know, the smallest in the second district, which is the only seat Paris won, and then a little bit better in the first and then significantly wider in in the third. Yeah, he's done an excellent job of going to those places and hosting bar events and just being there.

[00:19:07]>> My my question to you though is when he first launched, I I think you could if you didn't know who was running his campaign, if you didn't know kind of some of the more esoteric things about um his operation, you could be forgiven for for maybe having more trouble placing him on the political spectrum here. But we're now a a second cycle in after a full race where it was Democratic outside money that was coming in to support him. The Democratic party is in full coordination as we just saw with uh this primary result a couple nights ago with his effort. How does he avoid just becoming the deacto Democrat in in this race? cuz if that happens, if Republicans are able to make him that person, he he can't win, right? Nebraska is not going to vote for a Democrat. So, how does he maintain that separation even as he has to work with the Democratic party to get this clear shot and rely perhaps on outside Democratic money uh to come in and and give him air cover?

[00:20:16]>> Yeah, it's it's a really interesting conundrum because the Republicans started on day one. I mean, they just you'll have Democrat Dan Osborne burned into your ears so much in this cycle, you won't be able to sleep without hearing it. Um, they I mean, I think Debb Fischer called him last time a Democrat in sheep's clothing. Now, they just dropped the clothing. I mean, it's just it's different now. Um, I will say the divide. We are typically as as a state about three to five years behind most of the national political movements in terms of how parties divide themselves. Uh that's part of why you see kind of the MAGA flowering now and not 3 to 5 years ago when a lot of people took things over. The difference now is we are just starting to see a lot more of the national divide you guys have been covering between labor uh Democrats and uh progressives. And so I think his positioning what I what I see him doing is kind of positioning himself as the person who pushes back on the excesses of the progressive movement to basically use them as a foil. And I it's not I mean I'm not going full sister soldier, but it's it's like it's legitimately his his best option is to probably try to coordinate or let the the more progressive Democrats say what they want to say and then criticize some of that. He's going to have to create some distinctions that the labor movement is often pretty good at doing to to kind of figure out that middle way. But I I mean to to me because I live in Omaha, there's still a very much an Omaha labor Democrat that is old-fashioned and you know it's we we call them the Catholic Democrats or the Labor Democrats that are that are essentially that the the folks that are your grandfather's Democrats, your father's Democrats, and I think it's probably fairer to say he would line up a lot with a with a Labor Democrat of the 70s or 80s, >> but he he will be branded, >> you know. Yeah, that the you can't miss the alliteration. It's just it's right there on the tea. They have to try to knock it out of the park. Um but and I almost every presentation I give u people ask about independent candidates and third party candidates and how how can they win and this is this is the path right? I mean you have to be being have an independent brand but also be the deacto nominee of one of the other parties. That's why in Montana, Democrats are going to try to get the eventual Democratic nominee out of the race in Montana, but because there's there might be an appetite for that third party, but the lane is so narrow if you have legitimate two-party, you know, Republican and Democratic candidates. That's it's really hard.

[00:23:02]Well, and that's why you've seen honestly here in Nebraska and all over the country the effort by the Republicans or the Democrats when they're targeted by someone like this to encourage more people to run. I mean, we had a rare I mean, you talked a little about our Democratic Senate race. I mean that legitimately uh if you listen to the critics of both sides was a fight between a P Rickettts plant and a Dan Osborne plant over which one you you wanted to get in so they could get out like like Rickettts wanted the the Ricketts camp whether they'll admit it or not they wanted Bill Forbes or William Forbes to win that race. He's a anti-abortion pastor. Uh and and they wanted him to win that race and stay in so that the math just wouldn't work. And and and on the other side, I mean, everybody I mean, Burbank actually put on her campaign web page when she first ran that she was going to quit and support Osborne. I mean, I she almost got thrown out. I mean, the Secretary of State tried to throw her out. She had to sue to get back on the ballot.

[00:24:06]>> So, sitting here five plus months from November, I mean, what is your gut general election thoughts about about where where this race is November? I if the econ and this is a very big if.

[00:24:19]Three days is a long time in this cycle.

[00:24:21]Trump has changed the the nature of a new cycle. The if the economy is still in the doldrums, he has a real chance to beat Ricketts. I if if the economy turns around, Rickettts probably holds on. if it's just a little better. I I mean, we'll have to see how Osborne takes the level of vitriol that can come from the political uh machine that Rickettts has. I mean, he's had scrutiny, don't get me wrong, but there's a difference when you've got $3 million spent at at your feet for the worst decisions you've ever made in your life. And and we'll have to see how he withstands that level of scrutiny. And you know, Pete's probably not ever faced someone who could fund raise to parody with him. Uh it'll be interesting to see how much the governor's support is inch deep and mile wide. So, it's going to be I I think it's going to be a fascinating race, but I anybody who tells you they know right now is lying. Um but but I would say like anywhere in that 3 to five range would not surprise me.

[00:25:30]Nebraska is a red state, but there's something called the blue dot. It's the Omaha based second congressional district where Democratic presidential candidates have finished ahead recently and earned a single electoral college vote. But Republican Don Bacon has done a good job of keeping the district in the Republican column for the House GOP.

[00:25:49]But now Bacon is not running for reelection, giving Democrats a great opportunity to take over the seat. While Republicans didn't have much of a primary this week and nominated Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, Democrats chose Denise Powell over John Kavanaaugh in a close race. Here's the Powell ad that everyone is still talking about.

[00:26:07]>> We fought so hard for the blue dot.

[00:26:10]>> Now John Kavanaaugh would give it all up >> for his own political career. If Kavanaaugh goes to Congress, the governor gets to fill his state senate seat with a MAGA Republican, >> giving Republicans the supermajority they need to complete Trump's redistricting power grab.

[00:26:25]>> John Kavanaaugh, we voted for you >> to do your job in Lincoln. For Congress, we need Denise Powell. We need Denise Powell.

[00:26:34]>> I'm Denise Powell and I approve this message.

[00:26:37]>> Aaron, was the primary result a surprise?

[00:26:42]>> You know, not really. If you if you looked at the particulars, the the most surprising thing was how effective that ad was and that message was. I talked to I I talked to people who were covering the campaign more on the day-to-day basis. And the thing we heard consistently from pollsters, from people who actually were in the know, was that the blue dot was more known by the voters that are primary voters in that district than you would assume. 80% of them knew what it was and it mattered to them. Uh and and 52% of the Democrats, there was one survey that I I heard I I I heard someone referenced multiple times, 52% of the Democrats that were likely primary voters, would not vote for John Kavanaaugh, a state senator from Omaha, if they knew about any risk to the blue dot or to reproductive rights. And it it's actually the the issue was raised by a third candidate in the race uh Crystal Rhodess in December or November. And then but she just could not raise enough money to amplify it.

[00:27:45]And Powell uh Denise Powell the um she's a runs a political and business consultancy and is kind of has has run women who run a group that tried to train uh women candidates to run here in Nebraska. she uh had the money, the connections, and the ability to amplify that message at the right time. And it was extraordinarily effective. It It's actually one of the weirder things where, you know, somebody else raised an issue, but the one with money and the ability to follow through uh reap the benefits of it.

[00:28:19]>> This was such a fascinating Democratic primary because of the the characters involved. The we we talk about political dynasties with the Ricketts. The Kavanaaugh is also a political dynasty here. Uh John Kavanagh's father held this seat um back in the 70s and 80s I believe.

[00:28:37]>> His sister Michaela also a state senator. There are all sorts of interesting kind of behindthe-scenes politics between Crystal Rhodess that other candidate Michaela Kavanagh and Denise Powell who were all kind of involved in these efforts to elect more women in in Omaha and in Nebraska more generally. I guess that all leads to the question of after this bitter primary where Kavanaaugh was out in front and then all this money came in for Powell, there were accusations being thrown around. Um, is everyone going to be able to come back together, play nice and flip this seat after a decade of of uh trying and failing?

[00:29:14]>> It's it's a it's a fair comment. The Kavanaaugh are very much a political dynasty in this state. And, you know, two of them actually lost on election day. There was a local uh Kavanaaugh, I think one of the uncles who lost a local seat race uh on the same day and and so there was a like when I say the in incumbent and power structure push back is real some of that is this I mean I think it was a double-edged sword for him. was definitely an advantage early, but in the mood and moment, it might not have helped late. And and so it's kind of an interesting little thing, but yeah, I I think they're they're going to try to come back together. It was really a bitter primary for the Democrats. It's kind of part for the course for the Republicans in this state. They're used to having blood sport primaries whenever there's an open seat. Um Democrats here usually don't attack each other quite the same. Um, and and so I think it was just a change in tone and approach for a lot of Democrats. But Denise Powell today held a basically a uh acknowledgement that she had won uh gathering at a ball field here in Omaha.

[00:30:23]I just got back from it. and her first order of business was trying to do some outreach to Kavanaaugh people, saying he can take all the time he needs uh to concede that he can, you know, the results are that if they want to wait until Friday's results are counted, which is the early ballots that were returned on election day or the half day before that, then they should. It's very clear she is trying to extend the olive branch. The question is how much does uh do folks from those other campaigns want to snap it off? I I think because she It's a really weird thing, but that ad was not necessarily an attack ad on Kavanaaugh. It it was it was issue driven and it was very specific. Whether you agree with it or not, whether it's true or not, the the the way that ad was designed, it was very much like a uh it discussed the one thing that she wanted to preserve and not the one thing that it wasn't a direct attack. I think they can bounce back because it's possible to appeal to Kavanaaugh's people that she never really said Kavanaaugh bad. She just said Kavanaaugh needed here and and and so that's I think that gives her an avenue but it's going to take some work and the roads supporters a lot of them their anger is more at Kavanaaugh and they they were actually the first ones to coales around the idea of protecting that blue dot. So, she may actually benefit consolidating them because they were kind of the first movers on that issue when she was knocking thousands of doors.

[00:31:59]>> And how I mean the the message was effective in the Democratic primary, but how likely was that scenario to play out if Kavanaaugh had moved on and gotten elected to to Congress?

[00:32:11]>> I It's interesting. I I'm not entirely certain he would have won the general election, just like I'm not entirely certain the Democrats can win this one yet. It's still an R plus 1.8 district.

[00:32:24]And um offy-ear elections are different and I get it. But but until somebody closes that 2 to 2.2% gap, percentage point gap, I I I just have to see it. Um the the the the race is really decided with center and center right leaning independents or moderates and and the appeal almost always has to be in order to win the Democratic primary they have to go too far left to be able to appeal to those folks and the entire Republican approach under Bacon which he was really good at was sounding reasonable and only kind of microtargeting those people.

[00:33:03]People on his right flank often got mad.

[00:33:05]He faced challengers from it. But his genius on that was he always knew how to microtarget who really decided those races. And and Powell is positioning herself with what she said today to try to appeal to those people by only talking about affordability and cost of living. Um that that'll help, but it it's going to be it's going to be different. I think she can consolidate the Dems. The question is, can she can she can she bridge out to to the middle of the road before the Republicans brand her as something else?

[00:33:40]Let me ask, let's get real in the weeds here, as we like to do on this podcast.

[00:33:45]When I wrote about the this district in 2022 and 2024 in the two Bacon versus Tony Vargas matchups, one thing that came up time and time again was the impact that Anne Ashford had when she cut an ad for Don Bacon. And Anne Ashford, of course, the uh widow of Brad Ashford, who was the the last Democrat to hold this seat, who Bacon beat in 2016. Um, an ran for Congress in 2020, lost the Democratic primary, and then she went direct to camera for Bacon in his final two campaigns. And I heard over and over again how much of a dagger that was for exactly those kinds of voters uh that you were just talking about. Now, Ann Ashford supported John Kavanaaugh in this primary. She gave money to him. She gave money to James Lucian, who was another candidate who was running in this race.

[00:34:41]Now that Denise Powell is the nominee, I is is Anne Ashford, first of all, does it matter what Anne Ashford does in 2026? And second of all, is is she getting calls from from Brinker Harding the Republican nominee? Is is, >> you know, how does the Ann Ashford vote fall here?

[00:34:56]>> I I'm not I'm not I mean, I know the Bacon people had numbers that said she moved a lot of numbers, and she probably did at that moment, but but Anne Ashford is a complicated thing. She's kind of in that old line Democrat. Um Kavanaaugh's uh father was very much in that line of Democrat and um it it is that that size of that wing of the party is pretty small now. Um the the the the centrist appeal will matter. Powell uh talking about affordability will matter. I I don't know. I I think Ashford probably stays out, but Brinker is the kind of candidate that can reach across from the right. He is cut from the Don Bacon school but he is taking a different approach. I mean his opening his opening salvo uh on Tuesday night was very much talking about uh you know men and girls sports in you know trans rights and talking about uh red meat issues for Republicans uh in a way that Bacon was much more careful to do in limited audiences. And I think they have decided on the Republican side that they can win this race if they can ramp up energy.

[00:36:11]And if that's their approach, I don't see Ashford crossing on that. I haven't talked to her. I I need to call her. I I Brad Ashford was uh someone we knew for a really long time, but I I'll call her and ask. That's that's a good question.

[00:36:27]But it it's I I think the >> I I I think everything depends on the tone. If the if the race turns ugly, she's gonna pick the one that chose not to.

[00:36:40]>> Can you get her on the phone right now?

[00:36:43]>> I probably could, but if I told her, "Hey, we're live on a podcast." That might be the last time she answers my call.

[00:36:49]>> I mean, you know, there's some fallout consequences. Collateral damage. Yes.

[00:36:54]Well, well, let me ask you what I mean, how how viable a path do you think that is for Brinker given that the way Bacon seemed to always win was by creating distance between himself and the national Republican party brand as this I mean this district we we mentioned it voted for Dan Osborne, but it's voted for Democrats in in other statewide races as well as the as well as the presidential election. election, you know, and and so it doesn't seem like they really want a MAGA candidate. I I guess is this how much of a Hail Mary is this uh for for Brinker Harding? Um because it does seem like kind of a departure from from the Bacon playbook of years past. I he he's an unusual candidate. His record is fairly moderate. Like if you attack or comb through his record like the Democrats will, what they're going to find is that I mean he he voted like a Omaha city councilman. I mean, if you're running in an Omaha city council seat and a city council race, you're going to be more moderate than the majority of the Republican party. Um, his votes don't line up with his rhetoric that he's opened with. So, it's it's going to be a little bit of cognitive dissonance.

[00:38:13]I mean, you're going to have to he's going to sell himself as an energy candidate on the right and and and hope probably that the center remembers that he's a commercial realer and has votes that are pretty routine for the district. So, it's a lot is going to be decided probably. I mean, this district doesn't love Trump. I mean, they just they they aren't big President Trump fans. And and so the harder he hugs those folks to try to drive turnout, I think that's going to be really interesting to watch because he's he's playing an interesting game. The district has changed, you know, cuz you were here reporting on it. The census and the redraw put uh Saunders County into this district instead of some purple suburbs. It was a more moderate place when those purpling suburbs were there than it is now. Now, the Republican electorate is really divided.

[00:39:05]You have the urban Republicans who are extraordinarily squish Republicans, and then you have the the extraordinarily rural Republicans in Saunders that want someone who appeals to to their needs.

[00:39:18]And I I think he's caught kind of between those two because I mean, if you really look at those numbers, if you went deep in the Tony Vargas races, Saunders County was really Bacon's firewall. And and I mean it provided a lot of the edge and and I thought that was the really interesting thing from Denise Powell's numbers. She clearly went to Sarpie and Saunders in a way that Kavanaaugh did not.

[00:39:42]>> And that may and that may signal that she sees a path to lose by less there.

[00:39:47]>> Yeah. How much are we going to hear about the street car?

[00:39:50]>> Oh my word.

[00:39:52]>> When I wrote about when I wrote a story about this race last year, I heard a lot about I Brett Lindstöm's people wanted to talk to me about the street car. the Democrats wanted to talk to you about the street car. Um, >> it it's a little it's a little complex, but I think you will a lot. It's highly unpopular and and you're at the stage in this kind of project's construction where the businesses that are there locally are facing the fallout of the road being a hole >> and and so visually it's going to be very compelling when they sit down with a business owner who's had a small business along this route forever and is struggling to make ends meet. I mean there there's a there's a path where that could be a very important issue.

[00:40:31]The other thing is Brinker because he's a city councilman is going to have to answer for potholes and roads and you know in a city of Omaha's size you can make that argument over any candidate and it will land. I mean, you know, let I can very much see uh Powell's team or the outsiders doing a a pothole ad that says, you know, bring Omaha, the city of Omaha's approach to Washington. No thanks. I mean, like you you could see something like that.

[00:41:02]>> And it's so fascinating when you're talking about the message, the initial message from Harding. It almost feels like the Republicans are experiencing the fog of winning, meaning President Trump winning the overall presidential race, but he did not win in this district. And he's not he's less popular now than what he was, you know, in the 2024 presidential race. And so it's quite a gamble. I got I have to mention one thing about Kavanaaugh before we talk about I want to talk a little bit more about the the blue dot but um when we met with Kavanaaugh in DC earlier in the race I brought up Tommy Frasier uh former Nebraska a legend former quarterback for the Corn Huskers >> and his face like lit up like he was I mean he was animated when he was talking about his his own race but talking about Tommy Frasier uh and he's who I guess is still around It was it was a fun it was a fun moment or a fun conversation.

[00:41:59]>> Honestly, uh the the the two things that could affect the mood of the electorate more than anybody understands is if Nebraska football is winning and if the economy is doing well. Those two things matter. The only thing that would affect it worse now is if volleyball loses.

[00:42:14]They care more about Husker volleyball now right now than they probably do about football, which is insane.

[00:42:20]Well, let's talk let's talk a little bit more about specifically the the electoral college vote, you know, that can be that Democrats have been able to get out of Nebraska. I mean, what does that and and if that changes, what has that meant though for the state, either the local economy or the state's politics? What is that being able to divide your electoral college votes?

[00:42:42]What is that what has that meant for Nebraska? The studies that we saw when we were working on it that were handed around to lawmakers when they've inevitably tried over and over again as a Republicans to get rid of it is 20 to 25 million a cycle is what it meant for the Omaha area. And that's direct spending, new spending. I mean, it's it's similar to the arguments Iowa always made about the importance of them being first in the nation. It's not that it's not that large, but it's local in equivalent on the local scale. It it is what what it has done is energized Democrats in a place where they live and and where there are more of them and and so it has made the cities more hostile has made the city probably more hostile to Republican candidates that they otherwise might have voted for because more people turn out. Um I think it's made people have a little bit of hope uh that maybe wouldn't have turned out. The reason Republicans want it gone is Democrats absent of hope don't tend to show up in swing districts and and so what what you what you've got right now and honestly I'm watching really closely the redistricting push in the wake of the court decision. Um they have always protected because of the voting rights act. Uh they have not split the city of Omaha. We're one of the largest cities in the country, not split by congressional district. And and so it's kind of been the red line. I think there will be a huge push in the legislature to split Omaha two or three ways. So and and that this district two that we're talking about now, this blue dot that we're talking about now, the question is not I don't think they can ever get the votes. I don't well not ever. I don't think they have the votes to be able to get rid of the blue dot or change how the electoral college is awarding those votes or Nebraska's awarding its electoral college votes, but they probably could find a way through procedural moves to redistrict early. And what I'm watching this year is I I'm still not certain that Jim Pan doesn't call a special session and try to, you know, send South Omaha to the third congressional district and North Omaha to the first or the other way around. and and and and and so what I'm watching is is yeah, they can't solve that problem, but are Republicans ready to take the slings and arrows from the Omaha area that it would take to split the the district a new way? And and I don't know the answer to that. I mean, they might be. I mean, >> it's it's just a different era. And and the the CD2, you know this because you see them all over the country. CD2 is unique because it's so compact and not really poorly drawn.

[00:45:20]>> Yeah.

[00:45:21]>> I mean, >> yeah.

[00:45:24]>> Well, well, let let me ask you, uh, when when Kavanagh was pressed about the blue dot stuff when he was running in the primary, his response was always, well, we're going to win the governor's race and we're going to pick up seats in the unicam role. How real a possibility is is it that there is any sort of meaningful change in the balance of power such that Democrats either have a an opportunity to uh shore up their power to filibuster uh in the state legislature or that Lynn Walls can actually be competitive in this gubernatorial race.

[00:46:01]>> That's actually a really interesting question this year and in this circumstance only. Um, I think the governor's race is not fully formed yet.

[00:46:11]I still think that there is a third party candidate, former Republican Brett Lindstöm, who left the governor's who who thought about running as a Republican who has not entered the chat yet, if that makes sense. He he is he is mulling running a petitioning his way on as an independent. One of the things I wrote about when at the end of that cycle when he chose not to run for governor, he right at the last minute, right before the deadline changed to nonpartisan, which means he would be eligible to run as a nonpartisan having not run in that partisan primary. And so I I do think he's making rumblings about gathering signatures and trying to get on a a you know a more centrist Republican running against Rickettts could beat I mean I'm sorry running against Jim Pan could could give Jim Pan a go but not if Lyn Walls is in the race. Lyn Walls by herself if she's in the race alone against him. I I I think she I I'd give her an eight or a 10% chance to win, which is probably the highest number that a Democrat has had in this state since the late 1990s. Um it's not quite Kansas yet, but Panin is um >> the least popular incumbent governor in the country or the second least popular depending. It's him and and and Chem Reynolds fighting for that title almost every time they survey. and and so it it's there is an element of possibility here, but it depends on what Brett Lindstöm does and how uh Lyn Walls reacts. I I don't think this race is fully formed yet.

[00:47:52]And now it's time for our final segment, Look What I Found, where we talk about anything that we've been into. Could be food, politics, music. Uh, it's usually not political, but Jacob, what did you find?

[00:48:04]>> All right, I found the cover story of the most recent issue of The Atlantic. I think it's the most recent issue, the May 2026 issue. It's called My Quest to Find America's Best Free Bread by Katie Weaver. Um, it is laugh out loud funny. I know the premise sounds kind of goofy. Um, and it is kind of goofy and she very much understands that from the get-go, but I was beside myself reading this. I'm not going to spoil who the best bread, which restaurant has the best free bread in America, uh, because I want everyone to go read this article. It is uh, funny.

[00:48:42]It is engaging. It's also a really great uh, meta text about how to do journalism. And I think the Atlantic in in recent months, I think it's actually also in this issue even though it came out probably two months ago now, McKay Coppins article about called the cartel Olympics. Uh and those two kind of in combination very very different subjects, very different on the serious to to goofy tone, but both a really interesting exploration about magazine writing uh and and the work that goes into putting together anything that appears in a publication like that one.

[00:49:18]So Katie Weaver, I think one of our generation's kind of best and most engaging writers in general. Um, and and this article in particular was just >> it was it was so much fun.

[00:49:29]>> Yeah.

[00:49:31]>> My mind goes to then the the subsequent article would be the the best free chips and salsa, you know, because >> now you're speaking my language.

[00:49:41]>> I'm partial to I know I'm going to get a lot of comments about it. Hopefully, feel free to comment on this anywhere you're listening or watching this, but Tortilla Coast, which was the Mexican restaurant that's on the house side of the hill, right next to the RNC, NRCC, the chips and salsa were amazing. I know a lot of people thought it was everything. They didn't like the place because they probably went there too much, but chips and salsa were great at Tortilla Coast. So, rest in peace.

[00:50:05]>> Let's Let's call up Jeff Goldberg and pitch him because I I think >> I'd read it. I'd absolutely read it.

[00:50:13]>> Uh Erin, what did you find? You know, I what I was what I was enjoying out there was just trying to to find a way to escape the doldrums of uh the election cycle. And I I stumbled on a Puerto Rican restaurant uh in in Omaha, Nebraska of all places. Uh my mom is Puerto Rican, New Eur. And I always jokingly tell people that because uh my mom was new Eurekan and my dad was a southern uh son of a sharecropper, the fact I speak English at all is a minor miracle.

[00:50:46]Um but but the the there's a legitimate Puerto Rican place in downtown Omaha and they've got a place near where the College World Series is going to be played. And uh for all of the all of your listeners and uh and viewers who are are headed to the College World Series for NCA Baseball here in Omaha sometime down the line, do yourselves a favor and go to Ellie's Chinuro. It's amazing.

[00:51:09]>> I I would say there's probably a nonzero number of people knowing the intersection between baseball and and politics and political coverage. There's going to be at least one person who's listening who uh is headed that way. We don't have to mention that person if it's Nathaniel Rakitch, formerly inside election now vote me. Uh but he is uh you know legit baseball uh source on on everything.

[00:51:34]>> If you live in Omaha, you do not have a choice. You have to love college baseball. It's just part of the blood.

[00:51:39]>> Yeah.

[00:51:39]>> And it's a driver of the economy, too, right? You got to got to have that engine.

[00:51:43]>> Um what did I find? Well, I found that I will probably be in a theater around this time next week for The Mandalorian and Grou. Um, you know, there's probably a lot of feelings about Star Wars and Star Wars content, but for our family and our boys, uh, they they love we Star Wars all the time. And so seeing going to a theater, an actual theater and watching movie probably late on on opening night, I think is a experience that I I want them I want them to have.

[00:52:13]So, that's where we'll be next week.

[00:52:15]>> That's awesome. It should be good.

[00:52:18]>> I don't know about the plot, whether the plot will be good, but it'll be good to see Star Wars on a Star Wars on a big screen.

[00:52:24]>> Yeah.

[00:52:25]>> Uh Erin, thank you again. This uh conversation has gone places I don't think any of us expected, but we are appreciative of your time. So, thank you. We'll we'll tap into your resource and your expertise uh down the line.

[00:52:37]>> Thank you very much, gentlemen. At Inside Elections, we provide nonpartisan analysis of congressional, presidential, and gubernatorial races. With a combination of reporting and data, we break down the key races and bring valuable context to complex elections.

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