BUYER'S REMORSE: Latino Voters REGRET Voting for Trump in 2024

Ajouté : 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome back to today's video.

[00:00:02]Today is Thursday, May 28th, 2026, and today we are going to be talking about Latino voters having buyers remorse in the 2024 election, looking ahead to today as they look back on the past two years of the Trump presidency, a year and a half into this second Trump administration as we go full force into this year's midterm elections. First things first, I apologize if my voice sounds a little bit different. I have really, really severe allergies. I'm also a little bit under the weather and so I apologize that that's coming across uh in my video today, but I promise you we're going to power through this one and talk just a bit more about what we're seeing. Axio's reporting this morning or yesterday morning rather. I wanted to make the video yesterday but wasn't able to do so. And so, uh, in their data, what they find in the survey conducted, uh, just a few weeks ago, is that the overwhelming majority of Latinos nationwide, especially in battleground House districts, overwhelmingly disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing, including 25% of Latino voters who backed Trump in the 2024 election that say today they probably or certainly would not back him again if given a redo in that last election. That's comparable with just 5% of the voters, uh, Latino voters, 5% who say that they voted for Kla Harris that regret their vote. It is five times the rate for Donald Trump supporters in this, or I guess Donald Trump voters rather, no longer supporters uh, in this day and age. And that's kind of what we've been seeing for quite some time now, specifically amongst Latino voters nationwide. Something that is quite clear here is that Donald Trump might have done well amongst Latino voters in the 2024 election, but that doesn't mean that they are with him through and through through every single thing they've seen him do since he has taken power. We have seen states like Nevada and Arizona be directly responsible for the election of Donald Trump that will likely be turning away from Republicans, not just this midterm cycle, but also likely the next presidential as they find that this president at a remarkably low rate, even lower than the national average, which has him down 24%.

[00:02:06]And this is not a new story. LA Times covered this way back in 2025, and it was also something that they are now bringing back to the forefront because it's correct. The approval rating amongst voters who backed him in 2024, not just specifically Latino voters, but voters in general, is at a record low.

[00:02:23]But amongst Latino voters, it's even lower. You will find that there are large swats of the Latino voting electorate that did barrel towards the president in 2024. Specifically, those counties in the southern border where the Latino voting population in some cases was 75 to 80% if not higher. And it was the same counties that swung 28 points, 17 points, 21 points, 29 points, 10 points, 17 points to the right relative to the 2020 election, an election that we were already starting to see some uh massive changes in terms of Latino support on the national stage.

[00:03:00]And to see it really take full force in a lot of these regions of the country, in a lot of these battleground house districts, it is so emblematic of a larger problem that this administration is facing that the American populace is quite frankly fed up with everything they are doing in Washington DC. You will see that across the board here it is on a consistent basis that Latino voters while may be the most shocking and jarring and the most drastic in terms of change. After all, they started in approval of Trump on election day and an approval of Trump rather on inauguration day. Today, he's down in some cases 40 to 50 points on the national spread and in these toss-up districts by margins of over 20 points.

[00:03:42]Uh it has been very uh damaging for the president's reputation and something that I think will be quite damaging for Republicans chances in 2026. Allow me to explain. Something that I saw that I think was quite interesting. We'll talk about it a little bit later on today in the state of Texas. A lot of conversation around Texas and for good reason. We saw this most recent data point from public policy polling showing James Terico, the Democrat, with an advantage over Ken Paxton statewide. A massive advantage, one that I think is going to certainly narrow between now and election day, but an advantage nonetheless. Talerico leads Ken Paxton in this survey by roughly seven points.

[00:04:22]Now, a big reason for that, first of all, actually, let me clip this out of the way, is that they do a recalled vote to see how did people vote in the last election. Trump won that electorate by 14 points. So, you're working with uh an identical electorate to the 2024 election that has Telerico up by roughly seven points. The point is that in this race, Ken Paxton is losing. A large reason for that is that when you actually break down uh you know the cross tabs and data that you will find just consistently not even just in Texas but across the country they are abandoning Republican candidates. They are saying that they want to choose somebody else in the election. And that's exactly what we're seeing in terms of Latino voters backing Democrats 54 to 27. These are in battleground districts nationwide. And so when you think about that, when you think about how competitive things have gotten in a lot of these states, Republicans need everything to go right for them given that the president is underwater by such a degree. Everything went right for them in 2024. an unpopular uh Democratic president, a Democratic candidate who dropped out of the race 107 days before the election. Kla Harris, who started on election day, uh not election day, started on the day she assumed the nomination or or or was uh the replacement nominee for Joe Biden in this race with an approval rating of -15 nationwide. She rebounded it between then and election day. and one of the most historic rebounds we've seen in modern political history, akin to that of a national crisis in terms of rebound of approval. But it clearly wasn't enough. Donald Trump had the economy on his side from from Americans perspective. He had foreign affairs, domestic affairs, the southern border crisis, all of these different points that helped him win not just the nation, but Latino voters that helped him win the national average. That's why states like Nevada shifted red for the first time since 2004. Why Arizona, a state that Joe Biden won, went to Trump by nearly double the margin he won the state by in 2016. Why he won Texas by five points more than he did in 2016 and nearly 10 points more than he did in 2020. Why states like Florida shifted from Trump plus 1 in 16, Trump plus 3 and 20 to Trump plus 13 in 2024 in no small part due to Latino voters. And now as they abandon the Republican party, it also jeopardizes some of the maneuvering that the Republican party has been doing across the country and specifically in some of these new states when it comes down to congressional redistricting. The thing about the 2026 midterms is that a lot of these district lines are going to look very different than they did in 2024. And that's because Republicans really have been changing a lot of these districts to benefit them on the national stage. Specifically in states like Texas where you'll see here that the numbers here, you'll find the Republicans tried to draw out five Democratic districts. Chances are they will be largely successful in two, moderately successful in an additional one, and will probably lose two out of the five districts they drew to be GOP pickups. Why? Latino voters that they counted on staying with them given their performance in the 2024 election do not want to stay with them. Latino voters in districts like Texas 28, a district that historically had a very, very Democratic background that turned red in 2024. Joe Biden won the district in 2020. Clinton won the district by 19, but Trump won the district by seven. They've since made it Trump plus 11, but that isn't enough. The new boundaries here were made to be quite advantageous to the GOP, but at the end of the day, without the core constituency that drove the factor home, it's a 75% Hispanic uh congressional district. You lose the district. The same thing happened in Texas 34. Vincente Gonzalez won this race in 2024, but the map here had Trump winning by five. Now it has Trump winning by 11. But the kicker is that in a district that is 90% Hispanic, if Hispanic voters do not stay with you, you do not win the election. And based on expectations for this year's race, you'll find that the race ratings in both of these districts are not advantageous for the GOP. Democrats are still the favorites in Texas state house district Texas House District 34. And when you look at Texas House District 28, it's the same exact thing. Henry Quayar, Vincente Gonzalez are widely expected by most people to win re-election largely due to the buyer's remorse that a lot of these Latino voters are seeing all across the country. So, it isn't just Texas. I mean, we have seen this in other states, too. What the data also shows is that it's happening in California, a state that now has five more Democratic districts. And unlike Texas, it's very likely that all five of those districts do in fact swing blue. You take a look at some of these other numbers here nationally, you'll find that in states like Arizona where you saw Democrats, you know, now up by 28 points. Here's the thing that, you know, really makes a difference. When you talk about some of these competitive races in Arizona, for instance, uh just a few points can really shift the entire electorate here.

[00:09:43]Let's say you take the 2024 results and give Democrats 5% more of the votes statewide. They still lose the state on the presidential level, but they win the majority of the state in terms of representation. give them an additional five points. Say you take the state from Trump plus six and make it D plus4, Democrats win six out of the nine districts in this state, bordering on the edge of winning an additional one. A 7 to2 map is possible in 2026. That is what happens when you see numbers like these come to reality. That is what happens in a lot of these states. And the only real saving grace here for Republicans is the state of Florida.

[00:10:22]Republicans right now have about a four-point advantage amongst Hispanic voters in that state. The reality is though that Donald Trump won them by more in Florida. But still, it's an advantage. I bring this all up to say that the 2026 midterms are going to be a combination of factors that will inevitably lead to Democrats being in that advantage and winning a number of key and battleground states. Why Democrats are even in competitive nature in Texas is due to Latino voters, the same voting block that got James Telerico the nomination for United States Senate. The same reason why you'll see Democrats add a fighting chance in the House and why they'll be able to flip many of those districts in states like California and mitigate potential losses in the mid-caid redraws in Florida, in Texas, and why they might be able to flip seats in states like Arizona, like Colorado, and the whole sort. The 2026 midterms are going to be defined, as I mentioned, by a number of key factors. But I do think that 2028 will be largely defined by voters like the Latino voting block. And I don't say this to treat Latino voters like a monolith. But it is consistent that the trend line is from Florida to California that Latino voters are dropping their support of the president and in some cases at record pace. Something that the GOP just simply can't keep up on. If they don't find a way, Democrats will trounce them in a lot of these key races. A lot of what the 2026 midterm calculus was under this assumption that Republicans had won Hispanic voters for years to come. The unfortunate reality is that it very well may have been just a brief period of time. And squandering all of that political capital in such a short period of time is something that can only be done by this administration.

[00:12:03]And yet, it is being done at record pace. On every single top issue, the president is underwater. Voters are upset with where this administration is.

[00:12:13]And Democrats have their largest lead that any party has had since the 2010 midterm elections. That in of itself is worth noting. And a big reason for it is a change in Hispanic support.

[00:12:26]Republicans will need Hispanic voters to survive the midterms. They will need them to win the next presidential election. And if they have lost them and in some cases for good, chances are they lose both. I'm not here to make any uh declaring statements that Republicans are somehow gone forever and that there's never going to be a reality in which they win back Latino voters because they will. That's the way that the American political system works. But I do have words of caution for the Republican party that is squandering the very political advantage and political coalition that led them to victory in 2024. That Latino voters are not easily won back. It took years, decades even of erosion amongst uh Democratic Latino voters to win them and move them over in favor of Donald Trump. You can see it emblematic, you know, across the country, but also specifically in the state of Texas. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points, not because the majority white counties shifted towards the Democrats overwhelmingly Republicans. A lot of these rural counties that yes saw an increase in turnout did not get that much more conservative. In fact, some of the most populated areas and the sprawling areas around it in some cases shifted blue. Places like Kaufman County, where Kla Harris received 25,000 votes, shifted six points more Democratic, whereas the rest of the state and specifically Latino majority areas shifted overwhelmingly to the right. But this is not a coalition that withtood the test of time. It's a coalition that was built in 2024 that didn't exist in 2016. A much bluer, but only a fivepoint difference in terms of margin. even in 2012 and in 2008, Texas had more blue counties than they did in 2024. And yet, the margin was nearly the exact same. Not to mention that in 2012, far more blue counties compared to 2024.

[00:14:22]And yet, Texas was an even larger advantage for Mitt Romney because Latino voters were locked in for the Democrats.

[00:14:29]Whereas in 2024, some of these outskirt counties that were previously Romney strongholds, Tarant County was Romney plus 16, Denton was Romney plus 32, Colin was Romney plus 32, now Trump plus 11, Trump plus 13, and Trump plus 5.1.

[00:14:44]And you can actually compare this 2016 to 2024. These entirety of the counties across the southern border with majority Latino populations shifted overwhelmingly to the right. And that is the reason for Texas's change. And so if it is true, which every data point seems to suggest it is in fact so, that Latino voters are rapidly running away from the Republican party, Republicans might have very well squandered the political coalition that could have led them to victory for decades on end in just two short years. We will see if this data is right come election day. But based off what we've been seeing in special elections, regular elections, primary elections, it very much looks like it could be the case. And as we look nationwide, Latino voters that might have handed Republicans the White House and the House and the Senate in 2024 might take it away from them over the next three years in a massive display of aversion against the political party that they ushered into power in November of 2024 alongside a number of other coalition groups that have since abandoned Donald Trump as well. We'll track it. We'll see it. We'll look at the exit polls and see if it ends up being correct. But as it looks today, not so great news for the Republican party, no matter how you decide to spin it. So, thank you guys so much for watching this video. Make sure to comment down suggestions below.

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