Arroyo delivers a masterclass in localized risk assessment by grounding her forecast in the fundamental mechanics of atmospheric stability. This is professional meteorology at its best, providing scientific clarity that prioritizes data over sensationalism.
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Chloe Arroyo's Sunday forecast | May 10, 2026Added:
Well, happy Mother's Day to all of the moms watching. Yes, rain chances today in terms of your outdoor plans, you may want to bring them inside today just because of the rainfall moving through.
Luckily around the metro areas to the north of I-40 generally speaking, we have a stable air mass or relatively speaking compared to further south, it's a little bit more stable. However, there's a little bit more instability left over from those storms last night just south of I-40. So, we do have a low-end severe risk, a very limited severe risk along and south of I-40 for this morning and that extends through the midday time frame for the first half of the day today. And then later on this afternoon, this or that severe risk as a whole really winds down quite a bit. So, here are those storms right now. They're very general, very marginal, well below severe limits. These are actually good thunderstorms, good rainfall moving through around Oklahoma City and areas to the south and even some more widespread lighter rain showers off to in parts of north central Oklahoma.
They're really kind of riding up and down north to south of I-35 right now.
They're going to continue to drop further west or east to southeast in the next several hours. So, slowly moving through, already moving through parts of Stroud, Stillwater, Ponca City, Pawnee right now. And your temperatures are in the upper 50s in those areas. We're a little bit on the warmer side all things considered for our normal low temperature for this time of year. So, we are on a mild trend. We are It's also very muggy outside, so it feels like it's about to rain across the board, but those rain showers are going to continue to filter in. It's going to feed it from that moisture that we're already experiencing here in eastern Oklahoma.
So, here's about 9:00, just a snapshot view on our future view model guidance right now. It'll start to move through the metro around 9:00, and then those rain showers will be pretty continuous for the next couple of hours beyond that. Here's 11:00 and then a view of 12:00. Now, beyond noon, our showers become a little bit more isolated to scattered. So, they're not going to be as widespread throughout the afternoon today. So, you will have pockets of sunshine. You will have pockets of drier air or drier conditions uh throughout the afternoon today. Low 70s across the board, so a good 10° if not uh more than that compared to our highs yesterday. We had about 84° yesterday here in Tulsa.
We'll be right around 70 to 71° for that afternoon high today. Rain showers will last a little bit longer in our southern counties, really along and south of I-40 once again, but that severe risk really beyond noon goes slim to none at that point. Now, overnight tonight, we dry out. Upper 40s to low 50s as you're out the door Monday morning. Clouds will clear out quickly in the morning and then by the highs afternoon or Monday afternoon, your high temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds will be calm from the east, so it's going to be a six-star weather day tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday afternoon, we start to warm up. We have ridging that builds in that's going to keep us dry on Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception of a couple of slight showers overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Those won't be problematic one bit, at least what it looks like right now, and then we clear out quickly once again Wednesday afternoon. Now, our next bigger rain chance will be at the end of this upcoming week. That's Friday night into Saturday morning. That's when we get into a little bit more of an unsettled pattern. So, next week looks a little bit more active in the extended forecast, but this upcoming work week looks in good shape aside from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but other than that, lots of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 80s.
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