ITS HAPPENING! Clarity Vote Expected in May (BMNR UPDATE)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]The market was up this week largely due to geopolitics and with it BMNR also traded higher. But largely the story with BMNR has been around regulatory clarity. This is something that we've been following every single week around where we stand with the Clarity Act and what the probabilities are with that passing. And every week it seems as though we're getting a little bit more certainty. I'm going to be covering all of that in this week's BMNR weekly recap. Let's jump right in.

[00:00:23]For those who are new to this series, I've been talking about BMNR weekly ever since August every single week around adoption, accumulation, BMNR specific news, what they're releasing, as well as regulatory clearance, and the macro landscape in general. And as I said, recently many of these updates have been around regulatory clearance in general because that's one of the big moving pieces in the short term for BMNR. BMNR was up over 2% over the past day on Friday and 6.4% over the past week. So it's been trading higher. If And if we zoom out to the past month, we're up very slightly, just about 2%. BMNR is trading for just under $23 a share. Although earlier on Friday, it traded higher than $24 per share. So it seems as though we're finally starting to regain a little bit of that momentum since we bottomed out at around $17 per share. Now, if we go ahead and we compare this with Ethereum, we can see the story that it tells. So Ethereum here is down about 2.4% today. Over the past week, Ethereum was up around 5% on the week. And as we know with BMNR up 6.4%, it's closing that gap between that MNAV. As I mentioned in previous weeks that the gap does form where BMNR is trading at a discount to their underlying assets, but generally speaking, that gap does not last for a long time. And as you can see, BMNR is slowly starting to close that gap since it rose more than Ethereum did. Over the past month, Ethereum is up 7% and it's currently trading for about 2350. But But even Ethereum just yesterday was trading over 2450. So we're seeing a gradual stair step up in Ethereum. And just over a month ago, Ethereum did bottom in the beginning of February, falling as low as $1,800 per token, and slowly it's been stair-stepping upwards.

[00:02:04]It does have these rallies and pullbacks, but generally speaking, the trend is up into the right in a very slow fashion. And that's largely the same trend that we've been seeing with BMNR, down to 1740, and slowly stair-stepping upwards. Let's first start off with some adoption. Here you can see the technical patterns with BMNR Bulls here talking about how Ethereum, from a technical perspective, is reclaiming this structure. And this white line that you see here cutting down the middle is the 100-day simple moving average. 2300 flipped to support.

[00:02:34]Ethereum flows are turning positive. The compression is starting to form into a breakout. And BMNR Bulls here is saying that this is the start of a reversal. Of course, this is all predicated upon whether Ethereum can hold 2300. If it can't, BMNR is also going to fall alongside it. But if it can, then generally speaking, BMNR is also going to go up. Goldman Sachs is moving deeper into crypto. They filed for a Bitcoin income ETF in their further crypto push.

[00:02:59]This is from April 14th, just earlier this week, saying that Goldman is wanting to pursue a Bitcoin ETF that generates income by selling options on Bitcoin-linked funds, following BlackRock's push into a similar yield-focused product. And in my last update, I talked about all of these funds moving deeper into the crypto space. And Nate here has summarized a few headlines over this past week. So, we have Goldman's ETF push. We have Morgan Stanley's new MSBTC fund that's attracted over $100 million by offering the lowest fees out there.

[00:03:31]We have Charles Schwab to launch direct Bitcoin Ether trading to compete with Robinhood. And we have the New York Stock Exchange all in on crypto. So, many institutions are taking note and are jumping in headfirst. And as I said in my last update last week, they wouldn't be doing this if they didn't have confidence in the regulatory clarity being around the corner, because really they need that as a prerequisite to jump in with heavy volume. So here you see Morgan Stanley's MSBT launch.

[00:03:58]This was on April 16th, just 2 days ago.

[00:04:00]In 2017, Morgan Stanley said Bitcoin's true value could be zero, and yet this week they launched their own Bitcoin ETF, the most successful ETF launch ever. And if we look holistically here, this is a table that we haven't seen in a few updates. So this right here is Ethereum ETF inflows, and as you can see all the ETFs are here. have BlackRock's ETFs, Fidelity, Bitwise, VanEck, Franklin Templeton is here, Grayscale, so on and so forth. And over here on the right-hand side, you see the totals across all those ETFs. And yes, there are days where you have more outflows than inflows, but over the past week we've largely had more inflows than outflows. And a lot of this is driven by the BlackRock Ethereum ETFs. But on April 17th, we saw the biggest inflow that we've seen over the past little while, 127 million Ethereum bought, about 32 million across BlackRock's ETFs, and and over 84 million dollars in Fidelity. So what you'll notice here is that you'll notice a lot of things happen in conjunction with one another.

[00:04:58]As Ethereum starts to slowly rise, then you're going to notice funds buying more and more to try to take advantage of that rally upwards, and eventually you get to reversals like the ones you saw on the technical level. Now on Monday, BMNR provided their weekly updated holdings as showing 11.8 billion dollars in total crypto and moonshots, 4.87 million Ethereum, and 719 million in cash. So as we know, they're burning cash every single week to buy more Ethereum, roughly 100 to 150 million dollars in cash going into Ethereum every single week. BMNR had over 1.2 billion dollars in cash a month ago, and today it's nearly half of that amount, that's 719 million dollars. Why are they burning cash? Well, because they can't really issue shares because they wouldn't be able to do so accretively because they're trading under a one MNAV. They're trading at a valuation that is smaller than the total amount of Ethereum that they hold on their balance sheet. And as a result, they're forced to buy in cash. You can see here in their continued update, BMNR total Ethereum holdings exceed 4% for the first time ever. BMNR is the largest holder of Ethereum in the world. No other digital asset treasury company owns even close to 4% of the network.

[00:06:08]So, they crossed that 4% threshold. Of course, their target is 5% of the total network. That's what they're working towards. They purchased 71.5 thousand Ethereum tokens last week. And this is a trend that's been accelerating. And I even posted this graph here saying BMNR acquires over 71,000 ETH for the third week in a row. And I highlighted here that since they're trading below one MNAV, they've been buying with cash over the past couple of weeks, meaning that their cash has dropped from 1.2 billion to 719 million. And here in my post, I highlighted that they can keep using cash for the next few weeks, but ideally we would climb to above one MNAV where they would be trading at a premium where they can continue to creatively issue shares to continue to buy Ethereum. And if we go back to the update here, they highlight that the geopolitical conflict is entering its seventh week and Ethereum remains the best performing asset class since the beginning of the conflict, outperforming Bitcoin, mag seven, and pretty much everything else out here. They also made an individual post about this where the original post said Ethereum will move very quickly through the low area to fill the CME gap. Volume by price can be seen on the right hand side. So, you see these volume shelves over here and you see this big, big gap over here up until 2650. Iran just opened the straight up removes, which could be the catalyst for this move. Well, I hate to break it to this person, but as of this recording, Iran just closed it back again. Bitmain, the official account said here on April 17th, just yesterday, that Ethereum is the best performing asset since the war started. And they continued to say that it is the future settlement layer for finance as well as agentic AI. So, of course, this is largely going to be driven by geopolitics and what's going to happen with the regards to the conflict. If it in fact does end or if it does escalate, of course, that means different things for risk-on assets such as Ethereum and R. If we go back to this update here and we scroll down, we can see their staking did not change week over week. As of April 12th, the staking stands at 3.3 million Ethereum staked.

[00:08:03]Fully staked annualized Ethereum rewards are now reaching 310 million. However, this 3.3 million is just a portion of the 4.8 million Ethereum that they currently hold. So, there is still plenty of room left to grow to achieve their full staking. Okay, let's move on to some other BM and R related news.

[00:08:21]They just released their 10-Q. Why is this important? Well, in the 10-Q, they highlighted the outstanding shares. One of the reasons why they might do this is because they talked about share buybacks. About 537 million shares are outstanding for BM and R as of April 13th. And the reason why this is significant is because once we have the outstanding share count, we can determine what their accurate MNAV is. We can look at their Ethereum and that's exactly what BM and R bulls did here. So, using the latest reported treasury figures and the new 10-Q share count, Ethereum is currently trading for 2325. BM and R is 2163, meaning that the net asset value per share is 2298. That's at a one-to-one parity, meaning that the market cap to NAV where they're trading relative to where their assets are is 0.94x.

[00:09:10]That means Bitmain is trading below the value of its underlying holdings based on the updated 10-Q share count. And so, the 10-Q will give you information like this. Of course, you can scroll through the 10-Q and it's going to give you other valuable pieces of information along with their balance sheet, income statements, and others. We can see that the actual revenue they're making from staking, revenue from leasing and consulting, revenue from self-mining and others. And they're sitting on huge amounts of unrealized losses from the value of the Ethereum that they hold, but ultimately as we look at this, we know that BMNR is going to be tied to Ethereum. It's going to be dependent on if Ethereum's value goes up and and to what degree. It's going to be tied to the execution around not only Maven, but around the capital allocation from Tom Lee. And And so far we have seen some investments there around Mr. Beast and Aiko and others, but it's really a matter of how well are they allocating capital and is that something that will build investor confidence that invest in BMNR relative to the underlying Ethereum that they could just buy on the market.

[00:10:09]And speaking of, Tom Lee was at Paris Blockchain Week earlier this week talking about his vision for Ethereum.

[00:10:16]We're going to play this clip. Now, this is a longer clip and a lot of the stuff we've already heard in the past, so we'll play select segments of that. This is from Paris Blockchain Week earlier this week. One, since the war started, the best performing asset in the world, outperforming energy stocks, is Ethereum. Um it's outperforming the S&P by almost 20 percentage points. And you can see it's massively outperformed gold and silver.

[00:10:41]And if you take a look at Ethereum's chart over the last 10 years, I think it's going through a major consolidation, a massive consolidation.

[00:10:49]How do these other consolidations get resolved? Well, in the first consolidation, Ethereum went on to rise by 220 times. And then the consolidation that ended in 2019, Ethereum rose by 50x. I think there's a massive move coming in Ethereum driven by a couple of things. One is tokenization and the second is agentic AI.

[00:11:09]So, uh I'm going to have to go through these pretty quickly, but I think that this means you can get something like a 25x for Ethereum. So, I've talked a lot about tokenization in the past, so I'm going to fly through this.

[00:11:21]Uh you can look at our other presentations about this, but I think we're going through an important moment in the financial system not too different than 1971, which is that tokenization is a time when we're making almost every asset synthetic.

[00:11:34]And it follows a roadmap that happened when the US went off the gold standard in '71. It led to unleashing a huge innovation of products from money market funds to currency futures to CDOs, to index futures, all because the US was trying to preserve the sovereignty of the dollar when we went off the gold standard.

[00:11:51]Well, I think that's happening today because now we're we're digitizing everything. Look, even Jamie Dimon, the biggest skeptic on blockchain, even recently stated that crypto was better than the current financial system.

[00:12:01]I think everyone who's building in crypto is going to develop these future products. And that's stablecoins, tokenized equities, tokenized monetary reputation, but it's also really part of the future agentic system. Part of this is the Clarity Act, which we hope passes. Uh has a 59% chance of passing. But if it doesn't, I think crypto is actually going to do well without without the Clarity Act because that just means that companies are going to be building, engineers are going to be developing products that are relevant without the banking system.

[00:12:31]The second driver is agentic AI. Now, I put together a list of all the things that work better an AI system using blockchain. Uh but let me just cover a few of these really quickly. One is, of course, identity, decentralized identity.

[00:12:46]The second is the unit of payment and the payment system. I don't think AI systems care that they're using dollars to collect payments, but they almost certainly don't want to be using PayPal or Visa or MasterCard to do micropayments. Um because they want to use smaller units of accounts, and that's where crypto comes into play.

[00:13:03]Blockchains should gain relevance against crypto's store value, which is Bitcoin. And so, in our minds, the way to think about the future of Ethereum is its price ratio to Bitcoin.

[00:13:14]Now, the 8-year average is 0.0479.

[00:13:18]The high was 0.087.

[00:13:20]We think fair value for Bitcoin is 250,000.

[00:13:24]And so, if Ethereum goes back to the a year average, that's 12,000.

[00:13:29]If Ethereum goes back to its 2021 high of the price ratio, that's 22,000 Ethereum. Of course, I think it's better positioned today than it was in 2021.

[00:13:37]And so, that gets us to what we think is the payment rails number, that Ethereum is going to be roughly a quarter of the value of Ethereum of Bitcoin, and that gets you to 62,000. And that's kind of following the previous historical price cycles, that if you look at the last crypto lows and make a composite of where Ethereum could be in roughly 3 years, that would be a 30x, and that would take us to around 60,000. So, a lot of that we've heard before, I mean, around the valuation. And I think as he throws out these crazy valuations, like people will scoff and roll their eyes because the fact of the matter is is that Ethereum's at 2,000 right now, and I don't think a 30x is on anybody's bingo card. But again, this is not going to happen overnight. Tokenization, agentyc AI, all of these macro cases for Ethereum are long-tail bull cases that happen over the course of many years. And so, on one side, you could say, "Well, this is a foundation that's been building for years with Ethereum." So, now that we have a solid base underneath, we're seeing the institutional adoption, we're also seeing the regulatory clearance, and now we have a green light to go higher. Now, on the other side, you could say, "Well, the price of Ethereum hasn't really moved all that much, and it's very difficult for investors to buy into that thesis because they look at the price, and the price hasn't really done anything." We also saw Tom Lee at that same conference talking about Orbs as a moonshot project. This is one of the slides, saying that they believe Eight Roads Private Holdings are undervalued uh because Eight Roads here has 28% of their NAV in OpenAI, 22% in Worldcoin, Mr. Beast, Ethereum, and cash versus something like a Fundrise, which recently saw a huge rally upwards, uh who owns Anthropic, Databricks, OpenAI, and others. And by putting these side by side, he's just trying to illustrate one of their moonshot projects, which is Orbs being undervalued. BM and our MNAV tracker here said BM and R started off the week at 0.5 MNAV, which we talked about in their 10-Q filings, and they closed the week at 0.97. Good for the market. We need a big buy on Monday. And the reason why is because again, BM and R rose higher than Ethereum rose over the last few days this week. So now that we have an accurate understanding of the outstanding share count, we can have a more accurate understanding of the MNAV and confidently say that they are in fact trading under one MNAV. Let's move over now to regulatory clarity. Now, this is a story that we've been covering over the past several weeks, and it's something that keeps developing every single week as it moves through the stages. Now, on April 13th, uh Polymarket has it at around 59% uh as of right now, if I check live, it's about 54%. So it does fluctuate somewhat around new developments that we do get, but we are getting movement. So on Monday, April 13th, we saw that the Senate returned from Easter recess. And what that did was it opened the critical clarity act legislative window. And since they returned on April 13th, the Senate Banking Committee is really aiming for a markup between April 13th and April 20th, as this is the window that could jeopardize the bill's passage. So this week was a really important one, and even this weekend and even this weekend since we do get news over the weekend as well. On Tuesday, we saw some news around the Parity Act. Uh so you see this post here US lawmakers take another swing at crypto tax policy.

[00:16:51]Parity Act was reintroduced by two congresspeople, and it applies wash sale rules to digital asset transactions.

[00:16:58]It's basically tax for crypto. It creates stablecoin de minimis provisions and distinguishes passive staking from active trading from a tax perspective.

[00:17:07]So this is a bill around how the IRS would approach crypto taxes. I also saw this post here by Bullish Theory saying the US just introduced a bill that would make stablecoin transactions completely tax-free. Right now, every time you use USDC or USDT to pay for anything, the IRS treats it like selling a stock. You owe tax on every single transaction.

[00:17:29]This bill removes that completely. If the stablecoin holds a one-to-one dollar peg, there is no taxable event. You can just spend it like cash. For staking rewards, the bill gives you a choice.

[00:17:40]Pay tax now or when you receive them or wait up to 5 years to pay. The bill also closes a loophole where people were selling crypto at a loss just to claim a tax deduction then immediately buying it back. To qualify, the stablecoin must be regulated under the genius act and must hold within 1% of $1. This is not law yet, but if this passes, it will be a big win for stablecoins because again, if we change the tax treatment on stablecoins from the parity act, then you're going to get a higher adoption of stablecoins because this fundamentally this makes sense, right? Stablecoins should not be treated as stock transactions but more so a payment method. And if that's the case, then you shouldn't really be taxed on that. Now, this is a Fox News here saying the Clarity Act timeline is becoming clearer as the details take shape. Let's give this a quick listen. So, when do you expect the markup of clarity?

[00:18:30]Well, I won't be as clear on that as I was on on Kevin Warsh because there are three major components that need to be solved. Number one, the rewards issue. I believe we'll have that solved within the next 2 weeks. Uh number two, we got to make sure that the DeFi piece is in place and I believe that that is almost as close uh as the the rewards piece.

[00:18:53]And then number three, we need to make sure that every single Republican is on the same page at the same time. And frankly, I think that takes another couple weeks for us to get there as well. So, I'm optimistic that as we head into summer, we'll be done with the issue of the Clarity Act and we'll be moving on to other uh really important topics. So, of course, the gentleman talking is US Senator Tim Scott and I think that's pretty clear. A couple of weeks to solve some of the main issues and a few more weeks to get alignment across the board. Of course, this can fall through at any time as we've seen over the past few months, but again, we are getting more and more confident as each week passes. And the reason why he said that he's more uncertain on this versus Warsh because with the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh's nomination set for Tuesday, there was a delay in the Senate Banking markup of the Clarity Act. So, what Tim Scott was basically saying is that because Kevin Warsh's nomination took precedence here this week, they had to push out the Senate Banking markup until next week or even the second week of May since the Senate is out for the first week of May. And so, depending on how quickly these remaining issues are solved, we can see a May resolution here. And so, I think that rough timeline of getting it passed this summer is more or less accurate since all we're hearing across the board is that there's finishing touches and that largely we have agreement across all these major parties. We saw the CFTC chair saying that they don't have the final Senate version of Clarity yet, but everything they have seen so far is excellent. And the CFTC chair also said that this should be at the president's desk relatively soon. At CoinDesk here reported that negotiations on the Clarity Act have narrowed to just two to three unresolved issues with a Senate staffer describing the draft as a very close per a JP Morgan report. Nick here says the bank that publicly lobbied against stablecoin yield published a report yesterday calling it close to completion from 12 unresolved issues down to two to three unresolved issues.

[00:20:44]The stablecoin yield debate in a good place. So, that's really promising stuff, right? Because two to three issues can be resolved fairly easily and there doesn't seem to be any major hold up. We saw here the biggest Clarity Act blocker, Coinbase, says Chairman Scott is expected to hold markup this month and a floor vote in May. So, this is Coinbase's chief policy officer who's really reacting to that initial Tim Scott post that we watched together.

[00:21:10]Let's give this a quick listen. Yeah, what what's your expectation on the markup of this bill?

[00:21:14]I feel I think we feel great about it.

[00:21:16]You know, there's been a lot of really good work that's taken place since the Banking Committee initially tried to do the markup a couple of months ago. We've been working on an issue regarding stablecoin rewards, which we think is really critical. All of those are I think resolving themselves. So we're hopeful that Chairman Scott will be able to schedule a markup as early as this month. We'll be able to get to the floor in May and get the President and Congress another big bipartisan >> win. So that's really promising, right?

[00:21:36]Like when they release a bill for a 48-hour review, that's really when we should be hopeful that the thing will pass because they can't schedule a markup until 48 hours after publicly releasing it. So if they do release this on Monday, then they can schedule the markup anywhere on the 23rd or after the 23rd. And if they want to have a floor vote in May, that's roughly the timeline that they should be following. So the optimistic case here is that this gets released on Monday and we see a markup any time on Wednesday or beyond and that we have a floor vote in May and that this does not get pushed back to the second week of May because the Senate is off on the first week of May. So we also saw a post here from Patrick Witt last night. He's the executive director of the President's Council of Affairs for Digital Assets saying the compromise reached by Senator Tillis and also Brooks addresses concerns about deposit flight head-on. It's hard to explain any further lobbying by banks on this issue as motivated by anything other than greed or ignorance. Move on.

[00:22:36]So I have some pretty strong words there. This is of course in response to this post here by Brendan who said latest on stablecoin talks, some banking trade associations have begun taking their concerns about the latest version yield compromise to other senators on the Senate Banking Committee broadening an aggressive lobbying push on the unreleased text. So we're still seeing strong lobbying efforts from the banking side of things. But to wrap this video up, the actual Clarity Act timeline is very important here. So Stephanie here says, "The biggest issue is that the final legislative text has not even been released. Under the Senate rules, they can't schedule a markup until the text is finalized, released, and reviewed for 48 hours. So until that happens, everything else is just noise." And this is the step that we're currently waiting on right now. Stephanie continues saying, "Now, Senate just returned from recess, which was last Monday. So behind the scenes, they're finalizing the language, aligning votes, and making sure that when this bill is scheduled, that it actually passes. Because the last thing leadership wants is to rush the markup and to have it fail. Once the final text does drop, which could possibly be as soon as Monday, things will move quickly. You're likely looking at a markup within days, a Senate vote shortly after, and if everything aligns, this could realistically become law within the next couple of months. That's the most optimistic case. A real timeline, best case, is that late April we get a markup, early May we get a Senate vote, mid-May you get the House alignment, and late May this is signed into law from the President. Most likely, the markup is going to slip into early May and passage is going to take two to three months. But even if that's the case, again, like Tim Scott said, we can get this done in the summer, and this would be a big push for all crypto assets. And as you know, the market is forward-looking, so this is something to keep an eye on. Next week is going to be important because we really want to see what the latest text is once everything is finalized by the Senate. And then beyond that, of course, there's the Senate vote, where we're hoping that this does pass. So to wrap up that update from a regulatory perspective, everything seems to be on track, and that last step we're going to get on the last week of April or early May. And as we know, there's a lot of pressure from regulators and lawmakers to move as fast as they can, while also ensuring that this thing does actually pass. There's heavy lobbying from the banks, but there's also broad agreement, and there's only a couple of unresolved issues left to pass. So, presumably the confidence that we have this week is higher than we had last week, which was higher than we had 2 weeks ago. And so, we're moving in the right direction. Not only is Ethereum and BNB are slowly moving in the right direction with the alleviating of geopolitics, but we're also moving towards more regulatory clarity. As always, I will keep you guys updated every single week with this news as it develops. And we're going to be covering it together every Saturday. So, definitely subscribe to the channel if you guys are not already subscribed. I drop a like, share this video out so that we can spread the word. If you do find other pieces of news that would be helpful, then definitely just tag me directly on X and I can include them in this video. Thank you so much for watching, and I will see you in the next one.