Russians See It: Putin’s Power Is Fading Fast

追加: 2026-05-03

[00:00:00]Without heavy military equipment, most likely without an air show, and without the march of cadets from the Suvorov, Nakhimov, and Cadet Corps. This year, the parade on Red Square will be the most modest and sparsely attended in its entire history. Tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, fighter jets, and helicopters will only be visible to spectators on large screens. As Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, stated, "Everything will take place in a reduced format, supposedly due to a terrorist threat and because, allegedly, the date is not an anniversary." In addition, during the parade rehearsal and on the day of the event, Russian authorities are preparing to restrict mobile communications in several districts of Moscow.

[00:00:43]On May 5th, 7th, and 9th, all mobile communications will be restricted and possibly SMS sending and even the operation of white lists. Authorities include internet resources in white lists that remain accessible during mobile internet restrictions. It is expected that the restrictions will apply not only in central Moscow, but also within the MKAD, according to a report by the Russian service of BBC News.

[00:01:07]Right now, Russian propaganda is trying to convince everyone that the absence of military equipment on Red Square has nothing to do with the shortage of armor and aircraft at the front. But, the numbers tell a different story. During the full-scale war, the Russian army has lost nearly 12,000 tanks in Ukraine, more than 40,000 artillery systems, 1,300 air defense systems, 435 airplanes, and 350 helicopters. And, of course, bringing what has survived on the battlefield out onto the cobblestones is quite risky. As for personnel losses, in recent months, the Russians have suffered record numbers, and despite promises of high payments to recruits, the command has not been able to make up for them.

[00:01:50]Over the past 4 months, Russia has suffered four times more losses at the front than Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have killed or wounded between 30 and 35,000 Russian soldiers each month. 95% of this was achieved using drones with a ratio of one Ukrainian killed to five Russians killed. These figures sound harsh, but they clearly demonstrate how the situation on the battlefield has changed compared to last year. Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, in an interview with Clash Report.

[00:02:21]By the way, parades and mass gatherings are being canceled in almost all Russian cities. For example, the authorities in St. Petersburg plan to send out only 310 invitations to Palace Square instead of the 6,000 that were originally planned.

[00:02:35]Strikes on strategic targets in the Leningrad and Saratov regions, as well as in Perm, Orenburg, and Tuapse have not only caused economic losses for Russia, but have also seriously destabilized the situation within the country. For example, the sociological service of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion recorded a record drop in Putin's approval ratings to 65%.

[00:02:58]As noted by The Washington Post, the Russian dictator has not had such low support since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war unleashed by Putin has reached Russian regions, bringing with it fear, chaos, and a decline in trust in the authorities.

[00:03:15]It is difficult to accurately assess public sentiment under an authoritarian regime that deports, imprisons, or even kills political opponents and has made criticism of the war illegal. But, compared to Putin's historical approval ratings, which reached as high as 88%, the decline in poll numbers indicates growing war fatigue, now in its fifth year, and that negotiations to end it have largely reached a deadlock. From a Washington Post publication.

[00:03:43]Another reason why the parade is being practically canceled is the rapid weakening of the Kremlin's foreign policy positions. Over the past year and a half, Putin has lost three key allies, Bashar al-Assad, Nicolas Maduro, and Ali Khamenei, and he hasn't been able to help any of them. That's why there are fewer and fewer guests willing to come to Moscow. And this year's parade, no matter what excuses Kremlin propaganda comes up with, will be yet another testament to the weakness of Putin's regime. Irina Usupova for Freedom TV channel. Ilya Davlyatchin, journalist from the Telegram channel We Can Explain, is already with us live.

[00:04:20]Welcome. Welcome to you.

[00:04:23]Good morning, colleagues. Greetings to all viewers.

[00:04:26]Ilya, so look, it turns out that this parade on Red Square in Moscow on May 9th will take place without columns of military equipment. This was reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

[00:04:36]Only servicemen will participate in the parade, specifically cadets and representatives of various branches of the military in a marching column.

[00:04:44]And the ministry also explained this decision by what they called the current operational situation.

[00:04:50]I would note that military equipment will not participate in the parade on Red Square for the first time since the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022.

[00:05:00]This is quite a blow to the image of Putin's military machine. And tell me, please, who will be watching this scaled-down parade?

[00:05:08]Who are the people who will come to visit Putin?

[00:05:12]Well, there's only Fico left. He said, I think, that he will still fly in for the Victory Parade. I live in Lithuania.

[00:05:19]If he can.

[00:05:20]>> Yes. Speaking of the Lithuanian authorities, they said they won't let Fico's plane through for obvious reasons, because, well, what the hell are you flying to a country that started a war and has been waging it for how long now? It's already been more than 4 years in a row. But, uh after all, Putin does grant wishes. Yes, he wanted demilitarization and he got demilitarization. Though, to be fair, there's a catch. He got the demilitarization of the wrong country.

[00:05:43]After all, it happened in Russia, as we can see, and now it's happening very actively. But, in reality, this story with the cancellation of the Victory Parade, well, essentially, its cancellation is a very important, very important event. I wouldn't downplay it, because for Vladimir Putin, in essence, there is, well, one sacred thing. It's the Victory Parade, which he attends every year, where he sits with veterans, where previously Shoigu would arrive there in his car, and then Belousov.

[00:06:07]They, yes, were the ones who, um, commanded the parade. Everything was orderly, dignified, and splendid. Since this parade is, um, directed for a very, very long time, all these drive-bys, all these camera flyovers, all these displays, it's actually a spectacle that, well, I used to talk to people from Channel 1, Channel 2, and they told me that literally almost half the staff, half the resources of these main Russian propaganda TV channels are involved in this very parade. Just take a look at what a picture this is, how it's all filmed, how it's all put together.

[00:06:36]And it's clear that all of this is done for the sake of the visuals.

[00:06:40]It's not for, I don't know, for Belousov to report something or say something, not for the veterans, certainly not for the veterans. Vladimir Putin couldn't care less about the veterans of the Great Patriotic War. Not for the soldiers, either. He cares even less about them.

[00:06:53]It's all for Putin and for propaganda, so that the whole country can see how strong the Russian army is, how it marches, what kind of weapons it has.

[00:07:01]Although, in reality, there isn't much weaponry left there anymore. We mentioned, I think it was the year before last, that only one tank showed up for the Victory Parade, and even that tank was from the time of the Great Patriotic War, from the 1950s or 1960s.

[00:07:15]So, yes, there isn't much weaponry left, but the fact that the Victory Parade in Russia has been effectively canceled, not just in Moscow, but also in St. Petersburg and many other cities across the Russian Federation, is significant.

[00:07:28]This is a very important fact, because what is there to show on this day, aside from this scaled-down Victory Parade?

[00:07:33]What is there to be proud of? What will they talk about in the news?

[00:07:37]This is actually quite an important story.

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[00:08:03]Ilya, tell me, how much of a propaganda blow will this be to Putin's regime, considering how all of this will, well, let's say, be presented by the propaganda-driven federal TV channels?

[00:08:14]Yes, you called it a truncated parade, but I would say cut down.

[00:08:18]Cut down, yes. Well, listen, what's important isn't what actually happens, but how it's shown. For Putin, anything can be spun anyway. Tuapse is burning, cows are being killed, Victoria Bonya is making statements. But, none of that is on TV. Solovyov responds, yes.

[00:08:32]Oh my god. Solovyov responds, but Solovyov responds on his own channel, right, with 0% viewership, and on his own show, which, I think, is ranked 72nd in the top 100, according to Mediascope.

[00:08:43]So, it doesn't matter what actually happens, what matters is how it's reported. If an event isn't on TV, then it doesn't exist at all. But, you can't fool people. People remember perfectly well what the Victory Parade was like.

[00:08:54]People remember how it was talked about.

[00:08:56]Although, Yuri, it's always been a mystery to me. What is it about this Victory Parade? Forgive me for undermining these sacred values, of course. What news is there in the Victory Parade, really? What could possibly happen there for news agencies, reports, Kommersant, or Channel 1 to write about it?

[00:09:12]Well, for example, I don't know, Putin's pants would have to fall down during the parade. Now, that would be news. That would be something happening. But, otherwise, some vehicles drive by, planes fly over, soldiers march, Putin gives a speech. Okay, fine. Putin gives a speech, maybe that's news. In any other case, there is no news coming from the Victory Parade. But, again, what's important is how it's shown, how it's talked about, how Dmitry Kiselyov, or, God forgive me, Solovyov will talk about the Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9th.

[00:09:39]There's no other event happening there.

[00:09:41]And here's another story.

[00:09:42]Every year on May 9th, there was also an event that was quite important for Vladimir Putin. Let's not forget about that, either. This event is called the Immortal Regiment.

[00:09:51]That's when people march with portraits of their relatives or acquaintances who fought in the Great Patriotic War.

[00:09:57]And this was also widely covered.

[00:09:59]Moreover, this event has become even more, well, debased than the Victory Parade because the Immortal Regiment was actually invented by the team from the Tomsk TV channel TV-2.

[00:10:10]Back then, probably around 2005 or 2006, they came up with this event and in Tomsk, people whose relatives died in the Great Patriotic War really did march through the city.

[00:10:20]Later, this event, this act was stolen by the Russian authorities. They appropriated it for themselves.

[00:10:26]The Tomsk TV channel TV-2 was shut down at the request of Roskomnadzor and the local authorities. They simply destroyed it.

[00:10:33]And for many years, the Russian authorities, including Vladimir Putin, exploited this appropriated event, even though it became indescribably debased.

[00:10:41]And this event will not take place either.

[00:10:43]The Immortal Regiment will not be held this year either. In fact, to be honest, I haven't heard whether it will even be held online because for several years in a row, the online version was also marred. People started spamming, flooding the Immortal Regiment website with portraits of Goebbels and Hitler, which led to a major scandal. But the fact that neither the Victory Parade nor the Immortal Regiment, in which Putin also participated for many years, will take place is, in reality, the main disgrace for Vladimir Putin, who simply cannot end the war.

[00:11:13]And this is what even his two favorite events have turned into. Yes, you know, it seems that for Putin, the war has become the tool that helps him cling to power.

[00:11:22]And all this, this pathos that he so desperately needs on May 9th, is precisely that moment of propaganda meant to make people understand why their lives have gotten worse, why the economy is struggling, and why the cemeteries are growing.

[00:11:34]But it seems that he has no intention of ending anything. He just needs one day of truth, so to speak, in order to put on this victory mania show of his, and then continue the war afterwards.

[00:11:44]There is active militarization of schoolchildren going on, and here's something else. Belarus has stopped allowing Russian conscripts to leave the country. This was reported by Radio Liberty. The Border Committee stated, "Citizens of the Russian Federation who are subject to a travel ban after receiving a draft notice cannot leave the country through Belarus either, since they share a common database with the Russian Federation."

[00:12:05]Recently, human rights activists reported a case where a Russian conscript was not allowed to leave Minsk without any explanation.

[00:12:12]So, according to their information, this may indicate data sharing between the military registries of the two countries. Departure is permitted only if the person is not listed in the database and has the proper documents.

[00:12:24]In your opinion, will there be a full-scale, a total mobilization?

[00:12:30]Well, if things continue like this, then total mobilization will be unavoidable.

[00:12:33]Again, yes, why are conscripts not being allowed to leave Belarus now?

[00:12:37]Suppose, yes, if everything is really as they say on TV, people are volunteering to fight in the Russian army, people are signing contracts on their own, people are supporting Putin on their own, people there support the war, blah blah blah.

[00:12:48]Was it really necessary to take all these measures? First of all, to establish year-round conscription, which already exists in the Russian Federation, and to implement an electronic summons registry. This is when a draft notice is considered delivered to you simply by the fact that it arrives in your email inbox, roughly speaking. In other words, even if you haven't opened your email, it's still considered that the draft notice has been delivered to you.

[00:13:11]Was it necessary to raise the conscription age range from 18 to 27 to 18 to 29?

[00:13:17]Was all this propaganda really needed?

[00:13:19]Was it necessary for the regions to increase the value of contracts? Now, the value of contracts reaches 3 to 4 million rubles. Was all of this really necessary if people themselves were willing to sign contracts and go fight for Vladimir Putin, not just these murderers, drug addicts, and other criminals from prisons and detention centers?

[00:13:36]Last year, the Federal Penitentiary Service reported, or rather, I think it was Krasnov or one of the heads of the investigative agencies, that the number of inmates in prisons had decreased by almost a quarter. As they say, "What happened? Where did they go?"

[00:13:49]And again, would all of this have been necessary if people themselves were willing to sign contracts and go fight for Vladimir Putin? It seems to me that the answer to this question is quite obvious. But as for the registries, by the way, you mentioned the registries, they've been shared and operational together for a long time now. I discovered this myself when a criminal case for extremism was opened against me in Belarus, and I was immediately put on the wanted list in Russia as well. So, these very registries have been unified for quite some time. And if something happens to a person, at least in the opinion of investigators, courts, or FSB officers, either in Russia or in Belarus, it is instantly reflected on them in the neighboring brotherly country.

[00:14:27]Because the registries have been operating for a long time, and it's really no secret that they are shared.

[00:14:32]And if, for example, there really is a case against a person, or they are banned from leaving Russia, then, excuse me, going to Belarus is the last thing you should do. People who want to dodge the draft and avoid conscription absolutely should not go to Belarus.

[00:14:44]That's the worst possible idea. You shouldn't do that. You need to find other ways and routes to leave the Russian Federation, and definitely not through Belarus.

[00:14:53]Ilya, tell me, in the decision to scale down this parade and to show only what is currently available, what role, in your opinion, does Vladimir Putin's personal sense of insecurity play in this?

[00:15:04]After all, it's probably not just for the sake of the parade that he called Trump and said, "Can you pass something on to the official Kyiv so that maybe they could hold off on shelling on May 9th?"

[00:15:15]Well, look, the decision about the Victory Parade is not made instantaneously. That's why I think that the decision to cancel this whole part was made, well, about 2 months ago. Yes, once again, because there are TV rehearsals, equipment rehearsals.

[00:15:28]I personally witnessed it, and I know from sources at Channel One how far in advance this is prepared. And just 2 months ago, none of them had even heard that equipment was supposed to be involved in the Victory Parade at all.

[00:15:39]So, they, this is also a telling fact, by the way, remained silent for a long time and until the very last moment did not say that the Victory Parade would be canceled. And this, again, is a telling fact, just how much Vladimir Putin is afraid, how much of a coward he is, even in this regard. It's not just that he's afraid for his life. Okay, many people fear for their lives, they worry that a drone might hit them.

[00:15:59]He is even afraid to say that the Victory Parade will be canceled, and he doesn't do this himself. Who did it?

[00:16:06]Let's recall.

[00:16:07]Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin's talking head.

[00:16:09]Just like when Vladimir Putin said something about cows.

[00:16:13]For months, he stayed silent about the internet, even when all of Russia was already boiling over, outraged and indignant because of the internet shutdown.

[00:16:20]Putin stayed silent for several months.

[00:16:22]Then, at some Security Council or government meeting, he came out and mumbled something about it being for security reasons. Excuse me, but what kind of security is that if drones keep flying over Russia just like before?

[00:16:33]But Vladimir Putin didn't talk about this, did he? Because, let's be honest, Vladimir Putin is a coward. Not only is he afraid for his own safety, he's even afraid to say anything about it.

[00:16:42]That's how bad the situation has gotten in the Russian Federation. Because of one man's cowardice, the whole country is falling apart. And fine, let Russia fall apart, whatever. People are dying.

[00:16:53]Putin is afraid to end the war because he doesn't know what to do if the war ends. He really would have to explain what's going on with the economy, what to do with those military killers returning home to the Russian Federation, and in general, how to rebuild everything.

[00:17:06]And the territories haven't even been liberated, as Vladimir Putin claims.

[00:17:10]He can't do any of this because Vladimir Putin is simply a coward, just an ordinary, pathetic coward. He's been trying to take Malatokmachka for how long now? Ilya, thank you very much for joining us. Hey. You explained the situation perfectly. And even these behind-the-scenes backroom stories are very telling when it comes to this celebration that Putin is planning for himself.

[00:17:30]Ilya Davlyatchin, journalist from the Telegram channel We Can Explain, was with us live on the Freedom Channel. The whole truth about Russia's war against Ukraine.

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