This Bitcoin Chart Predicts An -80% Crash - it was never wrong...

[00:00:00]Well, it seems like the whole Michael Sailor situation went from worse to terrible to currently being hyper terrible, probably unforeseeable terrible because Stretch literally just is trading right now at about $85,000.

[00:00:16]It, as I say, it's um it's getting worse, but we're going to be talking about this. We also also going to be talking here about this 4-year Bitcoin cycle chart right over here, this 200 SMA. We're going to be talking about the impact here on the Bitcoin price. We're going to be using the retracement chart here to give out a target for the Bitcoin beer market. And overall, this is going to be an interesting video because it's going to be very bearish, but I do have something bullish at the end of the video. So, stay until that.

[00:00:40]It's not as bad as people are right now seeing it, but um yeah, things are probably going to get worse. Now, let's first drive into the charts before we're going to talk about this whole micro situation. So, what we are currently seeing, this is the 200 SMA here on daily time frame. I kind of just forgot about this whole thing. I didn't really pay too much attention to it, but today I saw a tweet and I thought, "Oh I forgot about it." But we're going to talk about it right now. So, the 200 SMA is a very, very important Bitcoin indicator because you can basically see that every single Bitcoin beer market, we basically break below this SMA. We come back and retest it and then we have another major correction to the downside. Now, generally speaking, this is about a one:1 correction. So, let me actually first circle here the correction. So you got here a correction and then you got the retest right over here. So let's go here to another cycle right over here. You got a retest. You got about two retests. You got even two right over here. But we'll just use that one right over here as well. You can see we break below it. We got here the retest and then we break one more time here to the downside. This is literally what happens every single cycle. Now what is very interesting is that you can take out the actual retracement tool here. And let's see. We have here about a one one retracement right over here.

[00:01:53]So that exactly hit a one right over here. This was I don't think this was exactly a one one. Let's actually see.

[00:02:01]Ew, it's very very close to it actually.

[00:02:03]Yeah, it's quite close to it. So it's almost a one one. And then right over here, I think this is pretty clearly a one one. This was worseer than a one.

[00:02:11]Yeah, you guys can see that this was a 1.25. So you can see that every single time that you break below this SMA, you come back up and you do a onetoone retracement at minimum. So what are we seeing right now? Well, we broke it to the downside. Let's take it from the top. Let's take it here to the retracement. Let's have a look. Uh we're looking at if this is going to be a onetoone retracement about $38,000.

[00:02:32]Now you're looking at me right now and you think, well, damn Thomas, that's not going to happen. You know, um all the YouTubers are bullish. They're going to say that I'm going to be a millionaire.

[00:02:42]Well, if you actually take out the retracement from all-time high, things become very bleak very quickly because literally every single Bitcoin bull market, again, literally every single one of them. What you basically see here is that you have an 84 about an 84% correction, but very close to 80% at least. You can see right over here on this indicator that you can see here on the right. So, this is 80%, this line is 70, this line is 60, this one is 50. For people on their mobile phone, it's maybe hard to see, but now I've explained it.

[00:03:08]So, you can see this is right over here.

[00:03:09]This line is 80%. So the 2015 cycle 80%, the 2019 BM market 80%. The 2022 right over here, exact bottom 77%. Again, very close to 80%. Current cycle, well, you can't even see the damn thing cuz it is only down about 50%. Which means, hey, if we're going to see what we basically seen every single cycle, you're going to be looking at 80% correction. Now 80% correction, you know what that's going to put us? It's going to put us all the way at about $24,000. that's close enough to maybe even destroy Micro Strategy. Now, the thing is is we have one good thing or bad thing, whatever you want to look at it, and that's that this whole Bitcoin bull market was kind of weak. It was not as high as what people were expecting. So, you can also kind of say like, hey, maybe if without AI and gold rallying so much, there would be more money flowing into Bitcoin. Maybe this Bitcoin bare market is also not going to be as bad because the volatility just wasn't as insane as we've historically seen. But again, even if we break down to 60%. Right, at a bare minimum, you're going to be looking at what is this? A 50% to $50,000. If we do something a little bit better, 70%, you're looking at $37,000. That will pretty much line up here with a one:1 extension. So, I don't want to be the hyperbear. Again, this is literally just it's literally just charts. It's I'm just I'm just looking at what has historically happened. I'm not saying like we're going to go to $39,000. So don't just like sell all your bitcoin, sell your h house and cry. Uh these are all things that has happened in the past and I'm just overlaying here on the current price. Like models can be accurate but sometimes they're wrong. So whatever you do whatever you want with it but again historically we've literally seen we always get down 80%.

[00:04:52]So if we're going to go there it's going to be 25,000 70% 37,000 60% is about 50,000 US dollar. So a lot of people are right now thinking we've bottomed right now. I don't know. It it like it definitely could be, but it still looks to me that this is a very simple retest here of the SMA and we still going to be looking at one more correction here to the downside. However, on the good side, one thing that has been happening here for basically like since November here of this year, let me actually check.

[00:05:18]Yeah, November November well last year November until 24th of November is that the miners have been actively caputilating. So, if you want to know why Bitcoin bare markets happens and Bitcoin bull markets, it's all tied to the miners and that is that miners control the supply of Bitcoin.

[00:05:34]Basically, what's really coming in like generally speaking, long-term holders don't really sell Bitcoin because they're ideologically into Bitcoin. They don't really want to hold any dirty fiat. So, generally, they don't really sell. The only people that are really selling are the miners because they're actively having to sell to kind of fund their operations. So you can see that if miners are struggling, what this indicator right over here shows you, then this follows with the price going down. And you can see the price has been going down and the miners have been in trouble. Now, the great thing I read over here about this indicator is that if the miners are actively selling, that's going to like relieve a lot of supply that's going to be hitting the market in like the next few months and years moving forward, which is a very nice and normal healthy thing to see because what you want to see is you want to see the miners just dumping all their Bitcoin during a bull market, during a beer market and stretching out because when the next hinging hit, there's like barely no Bitcoin that they can really sell and they probably have to hold a lot of Bitcoin, which generally creates these supply shocks that creates these cycle.

[00:06:30]articles. So, this is very healthy be behavior. This is again very very normal. There's nothing really to be worried about right now. Um, if these miners are going to continue to sell as you can see right over here, then you can expect the Bitcoin price still move to the downside. But so far, this is very very healthy behavior. So, while the price can still dump to the downside 50% again, literally every single time that we crashed 80%, we literally recovered and broke alltime high again and again over and over again. So, the fact that we're going to break down to even like 60 or 70%. It will look very dramatic, but historically, we've always broken back to the previous all-time high. And again, if we have the Federal Reserve printing a crazy amount of money, if we have the the US national deping out of control, I mean, there's a lot of things that can push Bitcoin price further to the upside. Just the price crashing to 60 70,000 or even 50 right now is not really the end of Bitcoin. It never has been. So what we also see here is that this is actually the electricity cost here the total bitcoin. So this is when miners are actually still profitable and what you can see here is that we have really never broken below this exact level. So technically again miners are struggling the most that they've always and always been which is probably one of the reasons why they are selling so much Bitcoin right now. But again I very much believe that the hash rate is just very very high right now. I think this thing will probably reset a little bit lower eventually. a lot of miners are going to quit and eventually you're going to see that things eventually balance back out again which is just again really what we want to see during a bitcoin bare market. So so far nothing really too bad with the miners coming on but they're probably the one that's mostly selling.

[00:08:08]So the last thing I want to talk about is this is the indicator. I think Benjamin Con made this indicator, but I thought this indicator is very nice. But this is kind of the problem that I will point out here with this Bitcoin rainbow waves indicator is that they are very nice, but like a lot of people are again expecting we're going to be bottoming right over here at like 60k, which we could, but just be warned about this is like we've always seen bigger retracements and making these kind of rainbow waves are nice, but I think this one is way too bullish. Like I think expecting something like uh I don't know almost like a million dollar Bitcoin in the next Bitcoin cycle like literally like 650,000 is just way too high. And just saying that Bitcoin price going to be bottoming right now I think is just too crazy. I think these rainbow charts I think we probably have to kind of stop using them too much though some of them can be quite useful but at least some of these hyper bullish ones I think you should be more using onchain data. And as well, I think like in the next cycle, what we're probably going to see that if the Federal Service is going to be forced to lower interest rates or print money, that this cycle is probably going to be forgotten. This cycle is probably going to be a crappy cycle. But that the next cycle is probably going to be quite insane. But it wouldn't be depending on this rainbow chart indicator. I think it's really just depends right now on the situation in the economy and if AI is leading and gold is leading. I think those things are made way more important than kind of adoption curve cuz clearly everybody already knows about Bitcoin.

[00:09:28]So I don't really think it it really applies at this point in time. But again, um the next I want to talk about and this is here the stretch. So this is the well so basically what Michael Sed did is he said like hey give us a bunch of money and then we're going to give you a 10% yield every single year on that money and then we're going to be buying Bitcoin with that money and because Bitcoin goes up more than 10% each year on average like we can definitely pay you back. But the problem is that when he released this, it literally started in January 2026 of this year. Well, look where Bitcoin was at the time.

[00:10:06]It was around $85,000. Currently, it's $65,000.

[00:10:10]We could still crash to, I don't know, $50,000, which means that he he basically lended money. He asked people to give us money. we're going to give you 10%. So, he could buy Bitcoin at a higher level. And because he doesn't really have any cash flow, he's now forced to sell Bitcoin on a lower level, which it just really doesn't make sense.

[00:10:30]Now, I wouldn't call this again a Ponzi scheme, but I can definitely see why a lot of investors are really worried and why his his stock is dumping. And now, he's going to have to raise the dividend very likely to bring this back to $100.

[00:10:43]And by raising the dividend, his existing cash is going to drain very quickly. And when actually his cash is going to hit zero. So he has about a billion right now. He has to pay I think 1.7 billion every single year. So he will run out in about 7 months. He's going to have to sell his stock or Bitcoin which is going to be very very negative for his stock. I think a lot of people are kind of overblown about the impact on Bitcoin. I don't really think that you would see something like a Luna collapse on strategy. you wouldn't really see a Bitcoin collapse, but you could see that his stock is really going to perform extremely badly in the next few years moving forward. And it may even suppress the price during a Bitcoin bull run. So, this is I think he just took way too way too much risk. And I think a lot of people are stressed about this. It's not the end of Bitcoin, but again, you're probably going to see that people are going to be worried about this and even during a bull run, people probably going to be a little more skeptical of a stock. So, yeah, that is something I I would be worrying about.

[00:11:40]This is not a it's not a collapse. Like Peter Schiff is literally saying that his house of cars is falling apart and Bitcoin is breaking down and sailor will go to prison which is it's it's a little bit too far-fetched. It's but but yeah, this is going to basically result in Michael Sed having to sell stock or Bitcoin either way. And it's going to be another FUD and bearish event that can definitely push Bitcoin lower. Uh it's not going to be the end of Michael Sitter. Realistically, I can fut about this all day and say like, "Oh, it's a policy, this and that." It's It's not.

[00:12:11]But this is this could definitely bring the Bitcoin price further to the downside. It is something to watch. If they're going to have to raise a dividend, it's probably going to dump the Bitcoin price. If this thing keeps going lower, it's probably going to dump the Bitcoin price. It is just not a good look for Bitcoin that we have. The guy that holds the most Bitcoin uh just takes way too much took on way too much risk to buy it. But yeah, that's all my opinion. Anyway, if you are new here watching this channel, make sure to subscribe. This is my new channel by the way. Uh, I have here about uh 10,000 followers on X. So, if you want to follow me as well, check out the link in the description. I've been here active since 2019, posting all these charts and stuff. So, if you wait if you made it all the way until the end and you're literally not subscribed, do it. I try to post a video every single day. I also post a chart every single day here on my ex account. So, check it out as well.

[00:12:52]And yeah, that's it. Hope to see you guys here in my next video. And uh bye-bye.