Labor government’s new policies under scrutiny as analysts dive into facts and promises

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[00:00:00]New net new immigration figures released in the budget paper suggest there'll be 35,000 more migrants in Australia this financial year than previously expected.

[00:00:09]Immigration peaked at 550,000 in 2223 following years of co pandemic related border restrictions.

[00:00:18]The latest numbers put overseas migration at 295,000 this financial year then decreased to 244,000 next year.

[00:00:26]Both figures higher than last year's estimates. Yeah. both also higher than when the Labor government came to power.

[00:00:32]The federal government says its budget measures will put downward pressure on those figures, though. All right, so for some early reaction this morning, let's bring in the Master Builder's chief executive, Denita Warren. Good to see you this morning, Denita. Thank you for your time. So, let's start off with your thoughts on the budget and the broken promises.

[00:00:49]>> Well, a series of broken promises here.

[00:00:51]First and foremost, the prime minister said repeatedly during the election and immediately after the election that his focus was on the supply of homes. Uh we've got a target of 1.2 million. We're falling short by 200,000. The second broken promise he would not touch negative gearing or capital gains tax.

[00:01:10]The government by its own calculations is saying that will reduce supply of homes by 35,000.

[00:01:17]Uh so that is simply unacceptable. It's a broken promise and it goes totally contrary to their policy priorities of increasing supply.

[00:01:27]>> Is that 35,000 figure about your estimates?

[00:01:33]>> We think it is an optimistic uh reduction in supply. We've literally got our modeling team starting today on assessing the uh decisions of government around negative gearing capital gains tax. So we can put our own evidence to the Senate when it considers this legislation. The government says that its other supply housing measures provides a net outcome of around $30,000 sorry 30,000 homes. Uh and we say that that is uh simply uh negligent. Uh we need hundreds of thousands of new homes.

[00:02:08]And of course, we haven't even discussed the fact that once you start taking property investors out of the property market, rents will subsequently increase. Uh so the focus is all wrong here, Pete. We need to be increasing the supply of homes so affordability becomes real for all Australians.

[00:02:25]>> Yeah, interesting. You've got you're doing your own research. The property council is doing its own research as well. It'll be it'll be very interesting to see what that turns up. Now, now on the question of costs, on average, how much has the cost of a build gone up?

[00:02:37]Dita, >> yeah. Well, pre the Middle East conflict, uh, it was sitting just under 50% increasing costs over the last 5 years. Uh, we're now estimating that's well over 50% because of the compounding nature of the cost being passed to builders that can't be passed on. Uh, so it's over 50% over 5 years. People are already reluctant to put open their wallets uh to build uh new homes. this last night just makes that wor.

[00:03:08]>> So that's I mean that's doubling in in a lot of the cases.

[00:03:12]>> Yeah, absolutely. We've seen just year on year on year of cost increases uh and people are saying we want homes, we can't afford to build them and so we were hoping for a budget that really saw a significant decline in those costs. Uh disappointingly virtually nothing on workforce needs of the industry. we need another 300 odd thousand people in the industry and they've actually put uh less money into apprentices not more uh and nothing on skilled migration. So really disappointing last night beyond the CGT and um Pete I haven't even started on the tax implications huge number of tradies rely on the tax arrangements as well. So we'll be modeling not only the tax uh decision but also the holistic package on its impact on the industry.

[00:04:03]>> I'll come to that in a moment because I I asked you about the cost of a build how much of that has gone up with the next question in mind. So you say 50% um it's the cost of a build has gone up since co >> by restricting negative gearing to new to new properties then will that help in the build or supply of new properties at all? So, so will buyers help you so to speak?

[00:04:30]>> No, Pete. Unfortunately, you would think that's the case and that's unfortunately, I think, a slight of hand uh by the government. By the government's own admission last night, these tax hikes, and that's what they are. They are a tax hike on property, will see a decline of the supply of homes into our market by 35,000 homes.

[00:04:51]uh and so uh we are already behind uh in um our supply. This will make it worse and the additional measures that they have introduced last night will not stack up as far as we're concerned.

[00:05:07]>> And and just back at backing up on on the number of builders, are we did you say we're 300,000 short?

[00:05:15]>> We are around 300,000 workers short in the industry at the moment. We currently employ 1.4 million. We're 300,000 about 115,000 additional workers needed to build to the housing accords that we're going to fall very very short of but an additional about 200 odd thousand required for the infrastructure building that is anticipated over the next 5 years. So nothing nothing in there and in fact the only minor adjustment was an adjustment downwards when it came to apprentice support.

[00:05:49]>> Right. Okay. So when the government points to its number it its migration levels which has ticked up a bit. I mean would that help you or not?

[00:05:59]>> Well we say there needs to be significant adjustments to the skilled migration um focus of government. Uh we need a focus on tradies. Uh we need um streamlined pathways. I acknowledge that they've spent a bit of money on assisting migrants already in the country get their skills recognized, but that's a small number, less than 20,000.

[00:06:20]Uh we need as change in the migration mix to meet the skill needs of this country. If we're going to build those 1.2 million homes the government wants us to build, we need more skilled workers. The focus on migration needs to be on skilled workers.

[00:06:35]>> All right, Denita Warren, good to have you with us as always today. Thank you.

[00:06:38]We'll chat again soon.