Is This Weather from El Niño?

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]It is happening. The waters in the eastern Pacific are warming as we enter an El Nino pattern heading into the summer and fall. And you're going to hear a lot about this, I think, from in the media. It's everywhere. It's happening. And I want to show you what we're seeing now. And the question is, is this already having an impact on our weather as we head into summer starting to relax these trade winds that we're doing like this? And when that happens, you start to reduce that upwelling of the cold water that's below the surface.

[00:00:25]And that's what really causes the leninia that we saw back in the winter.

[00:00:29]Another thing that I think is going to cause this winter to be different and probably the summer too, it's that temperature difference that sets up and you'll really notice that in the winter because with the cooler water here in the eastern Pacific, it's cold across North America, right? I mean, especially the further north you go, you don't really get a strong subtropical jetream.

[00:00:47]And that usually means kind of what we saw last year, a dry winter across the Southwest. Now, the script is changing, friends. Look how warm this water is getting as we moved through the late winter months into spring. As the trade winds start to weaken, you start to pull that warmer water at the surface. Now, follow me here. It's relatively cooler across the northern hemisphere, especially across the mid latitudes. By the time you get into the fall and winter, I think El Nino is going to have a much stronger effect then because as it starts to get cooler across the continent, you still have that warmer water here. you start to develop a really strong jetream, that thermal difference because the heat from the equator wants to move north towards the north pole. The cool from the north wants to move south. The Earth is always trying to find equilibrium. It's trying to find that point of where everything is the same. That's never going to happen as long as we have the sun beating down. And I think that's going to strengthen that subtropical jet as we head into the winter and we're going to see more precipitation across the south.

[00:01:47]kind of like what we're seeing now, which made me go, is what we're seeing right now an effect of El Nino? I don't think so. And here's why. I mean, maybe a little bit, but really not that much.

[00:01:56]Because, first of all, it's starting to get really warm across North America.

[00:01:59]You don't have that huge contrast in temperatures across the south versus the north. And another thing, too, you're not seeing this huge storm track into California. I think that's going to start to set up as we head into October and November. And uh that will move east. And does that mean we're going to see a warmer setup across the east? I plan on doing an update looking back on some of the strongest El Nino years over the last century, maybe even earlier than that. That sounds interesting to you, subscribe and come back. I'm working on that now. If you want to check out some other crazy summers, the year without a summer, we also had some really warm weather back in the 30s.

[00:02:32]I'll put some links in the description below. You can check that out. It'll also be at the end of the video. But we're definitely seeing a lot of rain across the south. The good news here, right, look at the drought monitor. This was from last week. I am anticipating this week's update because I feel like some of this is going to be chewed away at a little bit. Certainly, the rain we're seeing right now is not going to be a drought buster type of rain that just ends the drought. Let's just hope this continues and let's just hope it's not too much of a good thing and we end up with a soggy south where it's just way too much rain. All right, I don't think we're in for a 1993 episode where the Mississippi flooded, but we're going to watch the rain. Uh, and we are thankful for it at this point, especially with drought conditions that we've seen lately. Still more rain to come. This is through next Sunday.

[00:03:12]Several inches 2, three, four, in some cases even 5 inches of rain possible, especially here into southern Mississippi into Louisiana as this wet, soggy pattern continues further to the west into Texas. We're seeing rain here as well through the next week or so. And that rain though drops off kind of dry across the northern plains. If you go back to the drought monitor, we're starting to see some of that drought creep into parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, into Minnesota, Iowa. We've been rel relatively wet here, but if you look at the next week or so, again, not as much rain in the forecast, at least for Wisconsin up in Iowa and Minnesota. So, something to watch as we head through the next couple of weeks. And uh we'll be watching for persistence with the drought. Some thunderstorms today with that rain and uh that's going to be falling across the plains. Some strong storms possible also across parts of the south. Damaging winds. There could be some hail. The tornado risk just because of what we're seeing today isn't off the charts, but there could be a few twisters across Nebraska into South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. And hail, not a huge huge risk tomorrow, but today we'll be watching this area for some of those stronger storms. Again, if you if you have strong storm enough to develop tornado, this tornadoes, that's my rule of thumb, you're going to have some big hail makers. Okay, so that's going to be the deal. All right, let's look at the future radar as we move through what's left of Sunday. Wherever you are, we're seeing a decent axis of showers and thunderstorms moving across Kentucky and Tennessee. That will continue through this afternoon. Out ahead of it, these storms will also start to fire up across East Tennessee, West Virginia, far southwest Virginia, but into the Delm Marva region, eastern Virginia, the Pemont of uh of North Carolina for the most part kind of dry. There will be more showers and storms developing along the coastal plane and then down into Georgia. Some heavy rain possible with these thunderstorms and into Florida as we get some convergence with the seab breeze going here into the northeast.

[00:05:02]It's cool and damp showers moving out of the northeast. We're already watching this next round of rain moving back across western New York. So Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse, rain moving your way also into Vermont and New Hampshire.

[00:05:14]We're starting to dry out some though across the Tennessee Valley. So Nashville to Louisville north up in Indianapolis drying and then that all that rain starts to really push into the Northeast. So, another wet day on Monday from Boston to Portland and uh more rain into the south. Look at this moisture fetch that's just coming in off the Gulf. If you really trace it back, you can see how we're pulling some moisture in off the Atlantic as well into the Carolinas. So, more of the same. And uh you can kind of see this flow as this low back to the west pulls east. A lot of moisture, more rain on the way. Same story, just a different day. All right, let's back up to the west across uh the central states where again there could be some stronger storms heading into this afternoon and this evening into this region. Damaging winds, hail, maybe a few tornadoes. This is the H tripr not nearly as uh as robust looking tomorrow.

[00:06:05]There we go. So yeah, it's the live stream. I was wondering I was like where are the storms at? Uh even this afternoon though. I mean look the ACR not as strong. And yeah, we are on Sunday now. By the way, this is a live stream. Yeah, there's going to be mistakes. So, you get it all. The good, the bad, the ugly. Let's just hope there's more good than bad and ugly. All right. Uh I do want to flip something over. I want to check out the uh the NAM 3K. And let's just take a look at it.

[00:06:29]Yeah, it's a little more aggressive with some of these storms across Nebraska.

[00:06:32]We're not going to dwell here a long time, but yeah, there that's the region to watch heading into the afternoon and evening. And you can kind of just see how these storms are moving in this direction. A little bit of wind shear out of the south. So, some of those could rotate. And then as we head into tomorrow, there's all that rain we've talked about across the south. Look what's happening into the southwest.

[00:06:50]We've got this upper low spinning, pulling moisture into New Mexico, Colorado. Showers will be around and then on Tuesday, this starts to push east. So, I think that would be a day for stronger storms into Texas. Let's really widen things out. We'll take you through what's left of Sunday. Looking across the entire country into parts of Canada. Showers, it's wet, right? Um, it's been kind of dry here across the prairies, but there will be a little bit of rain moving in. Here's where things really start to mess me mess up. Um, I I don't know what I have the power to allow here, but I know we're just connecting to a network. I had an update on my computer last night. Let's allow it. I I don't even know. We'll allow the weather to do whatever it's going to do. Uh, and here here's what's going to happen. It's going to turn cold in the Northwest. I don't have that power. People think I think they think I have the power to control the weather. That's the conspiracy theorists will go now. That's that's how I do it right there. I allow it. I'll allow the cool weather into the Northwest with some rain and snow into the Cascades. Um yeah, we're still talking about snow on May 26th here.

[00:07:55]That's a cool pocket of air. 540 line starting to develop with that upper low.

[00:07:58]It gets cut off from the main flow and we're talking about snow into the Sierra Nevada into the northern mountains of California. And then we've talked about the rain in the south south, not to beat a broken record over and over again or a drum, I guess. Uh it's going to rain cool into the northeast, too. And I think this is something to watch. This cool cool pocket of air. It's cold aoft starts to dig just off the east coast.

[00:08:19]We've got another lobe of that moving toward the northeast. And I think that's going to keep things pretty cool. We do start to dry out across this axis as as the moisture kind of pushes back to the west. There is some dry air that gets infiltrated toward from the northeast.

[00:08:32]So drier conditions I think from PA down into the Virginiaas. But that line of bareicity starting to set up. You can see south of that a lot of moisture. The rain axis almost like this. We're warm across the southwest. Another cold pocket of air is off the west coast too by next weekend. So that will be interesting. And look at the tropical system that we're starting to see into the Gulf into the Caribbean possibly moving toward Florida next weekend. Now this is a long way away. The GFS wants to really hint at this. I do want to go over to the European deterministic that ran uh let's go to the overnight run.

[00:09:06]You know, you've got a lot of things happening in this region. It's not nearly as aggressive. That feedback mechanism not as strong as what you're seeing on the GFS, but I think this is a time period to watch on the tail end of these fronts. Sometimes things can happen. So, more to come on that. Here are your temperatures for today. Cool in the northeast with the showers tonight.

[00:09:27]warm across the southeast and muggy tomorrow. Showers will keep temperatures down with the clouds. I mean, if you could get some sun, you'd be in the 90s.

[00:09:36]There comes some of that cool air into the into the northeast as we head toward Wednesday, you you'll really start to feel that into Maine. And then by Thursday, highs will be pushed back into the 40s and 50s. And then you can kind of see how that cool air moves south.

[00:09:50]Look at Friday morning's lows. 40s as far south as PA, Maryland, maybe even uh into parts of Michigan and Wisconsin.

[00:09:57]And then highs warm up nice in the day.

[00:09:59]It'll be cool and crisp across this region. Kind of pleasant though. Back to the west, 80s today across Texas. We've even got some 90s on the board as we head into tomorrow. Another hot day.

[00:10:10]That heat builds north. 90s at least close to 90 across eastern Montana and further to the west. It's hot in the valleys here, but pay attention, pay attention very closely to the Pacific Northwest. The cold weather moving in.

[00:10:23]Look at the numbers into the Cascades by Tuesday morning, dropping near or below freezing. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s into the mountains. The central valley of California even cooling off too from the 80s and 90s back into the 70s. Uh, and then we start to stay chilly into the mountains. Look at this heading into Wednesday. That cold pocket of air settling in here across the west.

[00:10:45]Further east, warm on the east side of the Rockies. There's your numbers into the 80s and 90s into Montana up to Calgary. A little cool in the 60s, but you get out into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That warmth really starts to build north across uh a good chunk of the central US and really continental North America as we really widen things out. You can see, look at the 70s and 80s pushing all the way up into northern Alberta.

[00:11:12]into the Northwest Territories warming up too. It's been pretty cold across Alaska. Some of that cold air is slipping south. It's one of the reasons we're going to start to see that cool air across the Pacific Northwest. Um but overall though, warming across this part of North America as summer starts to take grip. And there's some pretty cold air along the north slope of Alaska.

[00:11:34]Still just pumping into this region.

[00:11:36]Winter not letting go here just yet. All right, that's a wide look at what's going on. Again, if you're on the live stream, this won't be here, but if you're checking it out on playback, here's a link to the uh the summer that didn't happen. It was the year without a summer. Kind of a historical look back and maybe what we could see this summer.

[00:11:53]All right, thanks for watching. See