How I Made $50,000 on PrizePicks Using Math

Ajouté : 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]I'm a professional sports better and I made over $50,000 on prize picks in just two months using math, data, and statistics to come up with all of my plays. And after that, my account got limited to basically pennies. And the craziest thing about this is I wasn't just sitting around watching NBA and MLB games. I wasn't studying matchups all day. I was simply utilizing a strategy called plus EV betting, mainly through line comparing and line shopping. In this video, I'm going to show you exactly how I went from losing thousands of dollars on prize picks to winning a ton of money finding mathematically profitable plays and how you can use this same process yourself. Now, how do you know that I'm not just full of crap or just making up stuff or how are you going to use math and data to come up with your plays? Use me as an example.

[00:00:46]Before I knew what plus EV betting was, you guys can see my graph right here. I was down 20 close to $24,000 betting on prize picks. That was a charity case. I was donating twoman powers nukes. I had no idea what I was doing. Stumbled upon a YouTube video, saw some things on Twitter, started looking into this plus EV betting, this line shopping, the strategy that some people were implementing and using to profit on prize picks. I quickly started to realize what I was doing wrong and how to write my sh how to turn the ship around, which is exactly what I did. And you guys, again, Pickicket, this is a a picket graph. It's a third-party bet tracker you can put on whatever DFS apps you play on, uh, any sports books or anything like that, and it will track every single parlay that you're playing.

[00:01:24]So once I started utilizing this strategy, I profited $51,000. Meaning I was up to 20 close to $28,000 in profit on prize picks. And when they saw me win 51K in a row in two months, they were like, "All right, we got to put a stop to this guy." But use me as an example as to this strategy can 100% work for you. So the ultimate goal of prize picks is to obviously find player props that are going to hit. But that's the kicker.

[00:01:49]Not every single player prop has the same percent chance to hit. We have so many different player props, so many different sports on the prize picks board. So, you might be thinking to yourself, how the hell am I supposed to find the ones that are more likely to hit or less likely to hit? And that's where line shopping and line comparing comes into play. And we're going to go over a couple different examples, and I'm going to show you exactly what you should be looking for when building out slips on prize picks. And real quick, line comparing is exactly what every single Sharp Sports better or professional sports better uses when playing on DFS apps like prize picks, the apps that use fixed payouts, which we'll talk about throughout the duration of this video as well. And it's super simple. All we're going to be doing here, and I we will go over a couple examples, is comparing the price picks lines and what they're actually setting their more or less props at back to the sharper sportsbook markets and taking a look at where they're actually pricing that exact player prop. So, right now on prize picks for NBA, the most popular play is going to be LeBron James' point total. They currently have his overunder or his more or less set at 20 and a half. There's been over 76,000 people that have played this player prop in a slip. But we can see on prize picks right now they have his 20 and a half point set. You can either take more or less. So if you think he's going to go over or more than 20 and a half points, you take more. If you think he's going to go under 20 and a half points, you take less. Now what we want to do is line. We want to compare this to other sports books, sharper sports books than prize picks. That being FanDuel. FanDuel is the sharpest when it comes to setting their NBA player prop markets. They have the largest volume. They have so many betters that are playing, sharp money coming in, etc. So, we can see that FanDuel instead of displaying it like prize picks with their more or less, they actually have odds associated to LeBron James's over 20 and a half points and under 20 and a half points, which is displayed a lot differently than how it is on prize picks. They currently have minus 102 odds for LeBron to go over 20 and a half points and minus130 odds for LeBron James to go under 20 and a half points. Now, at face value, this is insinuating that FanDuel believes it is more likely that LeBron James goes under 20 and a half points than it is he goes over 20 and a half points. What we want to do is figure out the fair odds, the actual true value that they being FanDuel are giving LeBron James to go over 20 and a half points and under 20 and 1/2 points. So in order to do that, we want to use a no vague calculator. So we had LeBron James more than 20 and a half points at minus 102 odds and we had less on 20 and a half points for LeBron James at minus130 odds. So if we calculate the fair percent odds, FanDuel is giving this at 47.2%. 2% chance for LeBron to go over 20 and a half points and a 52.8% chance for LeBron to go under 20 and 1/2 points. So, after removing the vig or the juice and finding the true value that FanDuel is giving this exact player prop to go over or under that 20 and a half point total, it's not really a play you're going to want to be playing on prize picks. It's not that good. But, let's talk about one other prop up on the prize picks board right now, and that's going to be the LeBron James points plus rebounds line.

[00:05:07]that prize picks currently has up at 28.5. Now, we have the ability again to take more or less on this specific player prop. But what we want to do is compare this directly back to FanDuel and see where FanDuel is pricing this.

[00:05:18]Now, if I go to FanDuel and I check out where they're pricing this 28 1.5 points plus rebound line here for LeBron James, they have the over at plus 124 and the under at - 166, insinuating that it is more than likely LeBron James stays under 28 1.5 points plus rebounds. Now, if we head back over to our NOVIG calculator and we add in plus 124 and minus 166, now we're talking when we remove the vig and find the actual true value that FanDuel is giving this exact player prop to go under 28 and a half points plus rebounds. LeBron James, we are looking at a 58.3%.

[00:05:58]So FanDuel is giving this a 58.3% chance that LeBron goes under 28 and a half points plus rebounds, which is an unbelievable play that we would want to take on prize picks. So this play right here, this is what sharp sports betterers are looking for when they're playing on a fixed payout platform like prize picks. finding these types of plays when we're comparing prize picks and their lines back to Sharper Sports books and their lines and odds that they're putting for those exact player props as well. This is how you find long-term profitable plays, expected value or plus EV betting through line shopping. These sports books like FanDuel, like DraftKings, they have million-dollar models that they use to set their lines and odds based on different data points, algorithms, everything that they have in order to set the most accurate lines and odds for the player prop markets, specifically in the NBA. So, by using and leveraging that information and comparing it back to prize picks, we're able to find instances where we're getting an edge against that DFS app. So, we can find these player props that are actually priced a lot differently against the sports books on prize picks where we can make long-term profitable bets. Now, the other battle when it comes to playing on prize picks is making sure you're taking the appropriate slip types. Not every slip type is built the same. So, here I have this beautiful graphic for you guys. Sixman flexes and fiveman flexes are mathematically the best slip types that you can enter on prize picks. This break even percent rate that you guys are seeing. This column is the individual hit rate you need to hit your player props at to remain profitable in the long run utilizing these slip types.

[00:07:44]So in a six-man flex, we only need to hit our individual player props at a 54.2% clip. If we can accomplish that, we will be profitable playing six flex slips over the long run. Now, in a twoman power, everybody's favorite slip type, you need to hit your individual player props at a 57.74% clip to profit long-term playing twoman powers. That is night and day between six-man flexes and fiveman flexes. So, we mentioned that LeBron James under 28 and a half points and rebounds prop.

[00:08:18]FanDuel had that at minus 166 on the under. In a six-man flex, we're getting each individual leg at minus18 odds.

[00:08:27]FanDuel had LeBron James under 28 and a half points and rebounds at - 166. We would have had it at minus18 in a six flex slip on prize picks. Two man powers, you're getting each individual leg at minus 137 odds. Threeman flexes, same exact thing, minus 137 odds. So playing on prize picks isn't just about finding the best player props. It's about finding the best player props with the greatest edge and taking those player props and putting them in the best slip types possible on prize picks.

[00:08:58]Now trying to comb through all of these individual player props that prize picks has to offer to find instances where you're getting an edge against the sports books, not just FanDuel, but DraftKings, Bet MGM, Caesars, you know, the whole shebang would be virtually impossible. You can't do it. By the time you find something that has value, prize picks will bump that line. They'll remove it. They'll turn it into a demon.

[00:09:18]They'll turn it into a goblin. You'll never be able to lock in value. So, that's why you should, and people do use upside tools and their fantasy player props optimizer. This tool does all the heavy lifting for you and shows you the best plays in real time. Now, how does it work? compares the sportsbook lines and odds back to various DFS apps like prize picks and other DFS apps like Better, Pick Six, Dabble, Underdog, and more to help show you individual player props that you're getting a long-term edge. So, a great example here is Paul Reed under four and a half rebounds. If I click into this row, you can see all these different sports books and DFS apps that are offering the overunder for Paul Reed 4 and a half rebounds. We compare all the different odds on the unders and the overs to show the actual true value, the true fair odds that this player prop has to hit based on the sportsbook market. So right now Paul Reed under four and a half rebounds. If you were playing this in a five pick flex or a six pick flex, you'd be getting it at -18 odds, minus 1119 odds.

[00:10:20]And in those individual player props, remember we're looking for anything north of 54.2 54.3% chance to hit.

[00:10:27]That's what we need to hit our individual player props at in the long run to profit long term. We can see that we have Paul Reed at a 54.9% chance to go under four and a half rebounds based on the sports books and where they're currently pricing this.

[00:10:41]So, this is a really good play to add into these appropriate slip types on prize picks. It's not just about finding value. It's about finding value as quickly as you possibly can. getting the value locked in before that play gets bumped or removed and entering it into the appropriate slip types. This is the exact strategy that I use to make all my money back in 2023. It's the exact strategy that I use currently to continue to profit month in and month out. And this tool does all the heavy lifting for me. Again, it takes the implied odds from the sports books, devigs and finds the actual true value and displays it in the percent hits column. I don't have to do any thinking, no manual work. I don't have to go to a sports book to figure out the odds. Does everything for me. I can build my slips right here based off the information that is shown to me on the fantasy player props optimizer. And guys, it can really be that easy to profit longterm playing on prize picks. It doesn't need to be uh who's done what for me lately, what stud is playing tonight, I need to take WBY over rebounds, I need to take LeBron over points, I need to take Luca over assists. That's not how you play.

[00:11:42]That's not how you profit long term.

[00:11:44]It's all about finding small edges with these individual player props, taking advantage of Prize Pix's fixed payouts by comparing them back to the Sharper Sports Books that use million-dollar models to come up with their lines and odds, leveraging that information and finding mathematical edges. If you guys have any questions at all when it comes to Plus EV betting or line shopping, go ahead and leave a reply in the comment section below and I'll be more than happy to help. If you guys want to come check out Upside Tools, there will be links in the description below. fiveday free trials with those links as well. If you want to come check out the optimizer plan, which does include the fantasy player props optimizer, you can go ahead again, links in the description. You can click on those links, go to the pricing page, get set up, and get 5 days for free. Come check it out and see what this is all about. But this is the way to profit long-term playing on DFS apps.

[00:12:32]If you guys are new to the channel, if you could hit that subscribe button, make sure you throw a like on this video as well. Really helps out the channel.

[00:12:38]and then turn on that notification bell so whenever we do post content like this, you get notified first. And if this is your first time learning or hearing about plus EV betting and line shopping, hopefully this opened up your mind a little bit and you will reconsider the way that you go about finding your player props when playing on prize picks. As always guys, I love you. Thank you for being here and I'll catch you on the next