Thunderstorms form when upper-level atmospheric support (a river of air flowing over developing storms) turbocharges average thunderstorms into more powerful systems, combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that fuels rain production; meteorologists forecast severe weather by analyzing these atmospheric conditions and predicting when storms will develop, peak, and dissipate over time.
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Moderate to heavy rain approaching the regionAdded:
The setup remains [music] in place for showers, pockets of steady rain and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could turn severe. And not just tonight, but on through the upcoming weekend. We'll walk you through it. We had a bundle of thunderstorms move on up north through Starr County. The flood advisory or flood watch has been allowed to expire or actually was canceled early, but nonetheless, it was quite a light show moving on north. Now, over the course of the next few hours, as some showers could slide east, well, let's focus our attention on the next generation of thunderstorm activity from about 3:00 in the morning tomorrow morning in just a few hours. And note how it all kind of takes a good cohesion. It all starts to get itself together there. That's 5:00 a.m. and then rolls east 7:00 8:00 a.m. Rolling still across the valley, across the lower valley. So, that's 3:00 a.m. 5:00 a.m. 7:00 a.m. Your commute could be wet and stormy tomorrow morning. Why are we seeing this and seeing it repeatedly?
Because we have what's called upper level support. Yeah. And that upper level support is a river of air that flows over the top of developing thunderstorms, and it turbocharges them.
It takes an average little thunderstorm and makes it more powerful. As well, the the flow of gas just continues to roll off the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture, water vapor. It's a gas. And boys, it's firing up that rain engine for sure. 74 overnight. Tonight, mostly cloudy.
Showers and thunderstorms, especially more 3:00 to 5:00 7:00 a.m.
The Storm Prediction Center has the upper valley with the minimum chance for severe weather on the ladder there, but the rest of the valley under the general thunderstorm category. But hey, let let's just all be aware, weather aware, that we could see more rough and tumble thunderstorms across the valley overnight and into the morning.
You know, last night it was a boundary coming out of the north, and now the activity is being triggered and rolling out of the west. 76° to 79° tomorrow morning, 86° to 88° throughout the day tomorrow, but notice the chance for rain does start to pull back a little bit as the day wears on. So, it looks like the morning hours would be the peak for tomorrow. Then, Friday's kind of a so-so. Really, overnight into Saturday morning we could see some activity, and then Saturday and Sunday we peak at 70% and into the holiday under the observance of Memorial Day, we're still at 50%.
Now, much of this activity is going to be uh heavy on the lightning and the flooding potential, especially getting into the weekend. I think those are our two main facets or features of the uh potential strong thunderstorm or severe weather thunderstorms. Uh look at Friday. As I said, 1:00 a.m. before dawn, chance for some, and then let's go to Friday night. Yeah, a chance for more rolling on through. Let's go to Saturday. Look at Saturday, rolling on through with chance for rain and thunderstorms. This could all tally to an inch and 3/4 to 3 in of rain additional for now through say Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of next week.
Take a look at the 7-day. It pretty much spells it out. Again, uh make sure you have the Valley Central uh app on your phone, and just be prepared to take action. That's a look at your forecast.
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