FRAGILE CEASEFIRES AND RENEWED STRIKES, ALL THINGS MIDDLE EAST

Añadido: 2026-05-30

[00:00:10][music] [music] Welcome back to ILTV on the hour. I'm Devo Klein coming to you live from Israel with all of the top headlines coming out of the region. It's currently 7:00 a.m. in New York and 2:00 p.m. here in Israel. These are all of the latest developments. The ceasefire on both the Lebanese and Gaza fronts are quickly unraveling as clashes with terrorists and IDF strikes intensify and even an IDF fatality show no signs of potential peace or quiet on Israel's borders. In Gaza, dramatic strikes rocked Gaza city as the IDF confirmed that a targeted air strike campaign successfully eliminated two senior commanders of the kamas terror group. According to the military, ease alin beek, commander of kamas's northern Gaza brigade, and Immad Alim, the deputy commander of that same brigade, were confirmed as the targets.

[00:01:15]This development comes as the IDF continues its relatively recent campaign to hunt down any remaining Kamas members involved in the October 7th massacre, the deadliest and most brutal attack in Israel's history. Recently, the IDF eliminated the new kamas military chief Muhammad Odell, leaving Kamas with nearly no command structure left at all.

[00:01:35]All of this despite the US imposed ceasefire. And on the Lebanese front, the IDF released for publication the name of a fallen soldier. Sergeant Rotani, aged 20 from Gatada, a service conditions NCO soldier in the 435th Battalion of the Givati Brigade, fell during operational activity in northern Israel. According to an initial IDF probe, Bratam was killed by a Kazbala drone in a military zone by the border as she was running to shelter for cover.

[00:02:07]A second drone in the same attack seriously injured a reservist and moderately injured another. As these explosive lladen drones continue to pose a very real and very active threat to both IDF troops and Israeli civilians.

[00:02:20]In response, the IDF continued strikes across southern Lebanon. Eyewitnesses captured the moment a strike hit the city of Ty as the military targeted abala command center. The IDF spokesperson said this morning that in the last 24 hours alone, 135bala targets were destroyed, many of which were rocket launcher positions. Now, in parallel to strikes, IDF troops are pushing deeper into enemy territory, extending the buffer zone between Israel and the Israeli civilians and the Kbala terror positions. And as the IDF continues its operations, northern Israel comes under fire once again in the last hour. Sirens sounded int identification of rockets fired by the terror group and at the same time also got red alert sirens for a drone attack. And as speculation grows that the fighting in Lebanon could stop if a ceasefire is reached between the Islamic regime and the United States. Well, on the diplomatic front, there are not only no signs of a breakthrough, but renewed clashes have now been reported in the region. The RGC says this morning it targeted an American military base earlier this morning in what they called retaliation for American strikes on an Iranian military site. Tensions are picking up also in the Strait of Hermuz as Iranian state media claimed IRGC forces fired warning shots at four ships near the strait after they allegedly attempted to cross without coordination.

[00:03:47]Any serious escalation in this critical oil shipping route could mean devastating consequences globally. But despite these recent clashes, Trump remains confident in a deal. Speaking at a cabinet meeting last night, Trump said this about the straight of form and the progression of the talks.

[00:04:04]Uh the street's going to be open to everybody. It's uh >> And who would control it?

[00:04:07]>> It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have.

[00:04:16]They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's [clears throat] international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else. So we'll have to blow them up. The primary urgency is that we can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Uh but at the same time we have a tremendous amount of oil, tremendous amount of area. You know, it's again it's Iran would have had a if we didn't hit them with the B2 bombers, Iran would have had a nuclear weapon within two weeks from that date because they were ready to go.

[00:04:45]And if they had a new weap nuclear weapon, it would have been used already.

[00:04:49]It also would have been used had I not terminated the Obama deal, the Iran nuclear deal as we call it. Uh that was in my first term. Had I not terminated that, they would have had a nuclear weapon a long time ago. Uh I would say it was a guarantee that it would have been used and it would have blown up Israel. It would have blown up the entire Middle East. Uh but I think we're doing very well, Steve. I think we're doing pretty well in terms of the negotiation, but we'll see. If it's not going to be a real deal, cuz Obama had that horrible JCPOA, whatever it was, it was the worst deal.

[00:05:25]It it was a path for Iran to have a nuclear weapon very quickly. Years ago, they would have had a nuclear weapon. We might not be here talking about it right now. They would [clears throat] have had a nuclear weapon.

[00:05:39]>> And now before we move on, a quick message from our partners.

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[00:06:27]>> And joining me now to discuss all of the latest developments in the region is our panel of experts for today. I'm pleased to welcome to the show Dr. Eric Mandel, founder and director of the Middle East Political and Information Network and retired Colonel Dr. Jacqu Nirya, special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. Thank you both so much for joining.

[00:06:49]>> Thank you. So Dr. Mandel, the United States just carried out strikes on Iranian military targets near Bandar Abbabas even as talks continue. What's your analysis of these exchanges of hostilities amid the diplomatic efforts?

[00:07:04]>> Well, first thank you for having me. I think the Iranian strikes u against uh shipping uh transiting the straits of Hormuz are part of their greater strategy to pressure the United States to make a deal sooner and in their favor. Um, we should just think that they have been during negotiations mining the straits of Hormuz. That's a strong indication how they're going to threaten the straits of Hormuz in the years after any deal is made. They've already changed the whole tone of the negotiations thing. We were the president talks very much about um uh the nuclear program, but really it seems that the negotiations are much more focused on their enriched uranium. And it has been my thought for quite a while that I thought the Iranians eventually would be happy to give up their enriched uranium if they're allowed to keep a level of enrichment if proxies um discussions are off the table, if ballistic missiles are off the table. Um and they brilliantly have been able to put on the table uh Lebanon [clears throat] and I think what is happening right now uh in Lebanon with Israel increasing its actions and I just saw a note from the IDF that uh Israel has attacked Beirut moments ago um is that that because Lebanon is now on the table, Israel is in a race to try to get some uh tactical if not strategic achievements against Hezbollah. So this isians are quite smart. Um and we should not underestimate them and they've had years preparing again. They've been in a war against my country for 47 years. Um and uh the question is Israel is worrying um and we need Israel for American national security interest, but Israel is worrying that there's going to be a premature um ceasefire and it's going to not be able to make all of its achievements. So I believe all these arenas are uh are together.

[00:08:59]>> Mhm. And you know as you rightfully mentioned uh the IDF did recently release that we did uh air strikes in Beirut which is a massive development that I will uh want to touch on soon.

[00:09:09]But uh first Dr. Narya uh do you think that these um circumstances of these uh exchanges of fire amid the diplomacy? Do you think that they are unique circumstances for talks or is this just you know the way of the Middle East clashes reported amid efforts to maintain a ceasefire? What are your thoughts?

[00:09:25]Well, you know, I don't know where are the these negotiations going to lead us because I basically, frankly, I don't think that the Lebanese government has has any any power to implement any agreement between between Israel and and Lebanon. And by the way, they're not talking about a security arrangement with the between Lebanon and Israel.

[00:09:46]They're talking of negotiating the withdrawal of Israel. This is what they want. They don't want anything else.

[00:09:52]They want the withdrawal. They want the the displaced to come back. They want reconstruction. But they don't want any normalization with Israel. This we have to to make clear. And this is not the purpose of their negotiation. No, the negotiators. Their negotiators are going to discuss only the the the elements that I have spoken and we will not withdraw from Lebanon as long as the armed and still fighting Israel.

[00:10:20]>> Trump's comments. Yeah.

[00:10:23]the this is this is the absurd I mean we have a situation where we have a delegation speaking about so-called peace but it's not peace and we're on at the same time we are just having a a a war of attrition led byah and under the the guidance of the direct guidance of of I mean unlike who had some liberty of maneuver Here Naim Kasim is completely completely controlled by controlled by Thran and he he give and the order he gives to his troops are the the order that were given by the revolutionary guards >> right but Dr. Yeah. Do you mind just like elaborating on the I guess you can call it the logistics of this chain of command getting their commands obviously from the Islamic regime directly, but how much influence does have when it comes to the Lebanon and the Lebanese front when it comes to also the diplomatic efforts? You know, Israel obviously US brokered um ceasefire discussing with uh Lebanese officials to curb KBA since Israel is not really supposed to be doing this alone. Le the Lebanese government and the mil the Lebanese military needs to be involved in dismantling and they're getting commands ex like directly from the IRGC.

[00:11:43]So is that influential when it comes to the diplomatic efforts? We know that have a lot of power on the ground but what does that mean for um talks in Lebanon diplomatically?

[00:11:54]It means very clearly. I mean then now is threatening the government to topple the government because if he if it continues the negotiation with Israel then the would have all the all the reasons all justification to try to topple the the government and I mean Na Kasim said it only two days ago but he said it in in the context of the of the Lebanese government acting against the banking system of of Cardinal Kassan. They have about 40 40 banks in in Lebanon about 400,000 people with has have opened accounts and with almost 2 million people that are just conditioned by by this bank and and and this bank is the the money washer of of this is why is threatening the government. So we have here a militia. Let's remember basically 1982 this militia was founded by Iran.

[00:12:55]Iran with the 1500 in the valley was the were the first to to to establish this uh this militia and this militia responds financially formation weapons equipment logistic everything is is Iranian. Now what happened after the after the elimination of well the uh the situation changed the was in had received a very very hard strike by by Israel and because of that officers of the IRGC came into Lebanon and took took control of of today is run by by Iranian officers all the all the all the instructions come from directly from Thran and this is why I mean the cannot stop because I mean its DNA was is twofold. One is fighting Israel and second turn Lebanon into an Islamic state, >> right? And it's becoming clearer and clearer every day that that's not going to change anytime soon. Uh but Dr. Mandel, I actually want to uh flip this perspective and ask you this. Uh it's very clear that the Islamic regime has uh you know incredible influence on Lebanon. But I'm curious on your take on this. Do you think that the fighting in Lebanon, the strikes in Beirut and the deepening of troops into Lebanese territory could actually be impacting the negotiations with the Islamic regime with the United States?

[00:14:30]>> Well, I believe that Iran wants to keep its proxy alive. And I think, you know, I have more optimism, you know, I want to tie these fronts together. I have more optimism if we had a different strategy um for Iran than I do for Lebanon. Lebanon because of Willie Dafaku basically um 50% that will is guardianship of the jurist which basically means just as Jacques has said that uh IRGC runs um uh the Hezbollah and Hezbollah follows the orders. It's a division. Uh it's not independent of um of of Tehran.

[00:15:08]um as far as um the uh with the negotiations and what's going on and why I have more optimism for Iran than I actually if we had a different strategy is because the Iranian people um if we had regime change as part of our long-term strategy um it would then that's probably the only thing that could degrade uh Hezbollah, degrade Hamas, degrade the Houthis, degrade um their hegemonic ambitions. Um, and with Lebanon, you're dealing with uh probably 50% of the Lebanese armed forces being Shia. Uh, they the country uh is 50% Shia, Lebanese armed forces are infiltrated by Hezbollah and the officer and the military intelligence. Whereas if our strategy and I think this is where Iran has changed everything and this is where we really need to go back to basics in that basics is that America should be about if we want to make the Middle East better not to have to come back here not to to have great a great strategic achievement that will resonate to our primary adversary China. It [clears throat] means supporting the Iranian opposition. That means this the president unfortunately right at the very beginning of this war stopped the beginnings of arming opposition starting with the Kurds and other minorities and then towards the Persians which is what the CIA does well and can do well and that's really where we should get back to and that would force the IR that would force the Iranian regime to focus inward against a um uprising of what's going on um within the country and that could change the tone of the conversation But anything short of regime collapse um which is the first thing that would happen um this is going to go on and on and this is about a a perspective that America wants to move on to the next um to get to the next election uh to move on to to short-term things whereas the Persian uh regime the 12ites they are willing to outweigh us and Hezbollah is tied in with Iran but again going back to what I think was Naftali Bennett had said we need to deal with the head of the octopus if we want to deal with the tentacles. But the reason Israel is going at full tilt right now in Lebanon to me is they're on another clock. That clock is um that the America may make a deal uh with uh the Iranian regime and Israel is going to be forced to stop before it's made its tactical achievements.

[00:17:40]want to dwell on something that you said earlier because you claimed that uh regime change should ultimately be the uh primary goal in order to actually achieve what we're trying to in the region. But Trump has said time and again that he believes that they have effectively achieved regime change because the previous regime is no longer there. They've all been replaced and now uh in the beginning of uh of this uh so-called change, it was being reported that they uh the new regime heads are actually more extreme in their views than the previous regime. But now Trump is saying lit from earlier um this week that these are actually more moderate uh people in charge and that they're actually wanting to come to a deal. So can we trust Trump in his words? Is he just posturing at this point? What do you make of that?

[00:18:23]uh as far as regime change um it's a semantic question there that we have different people who have the same ideology and I don't think you know and and I when you open up the New York Times here in the states and they talk about moderates um and people more hardline this is nonsense um everybody part of the regime is hardline or more hardline and we think that there are we read about the fractures in the Iranian leadership um I believe um there are that this may be that America is being played. I think we have to assume that they have not changed their spots. They may try to paint them over, but they are the same regime that has as its primary DNA destroying Israel, destroying America, expanding hegemonically, dominating the Middle East, taking over eventually Saudi Saudi Arabia so they can get Mecca and Medina. Um so the belief that um that the regime you know that we negotiate with ourselves the regime this we need to be a little more binary in the fivedimensional world of Middle East because America very often when we say binary um it's you know we want short-term victories but binary means here when we're dealing with the Iranians no enrichment no nuclear program no weapons minimize ballistic missiles certainly ly long range ballistic missiles. Um you no monies for um for their um proxies and supporting the Iranian opposition which has been willing to put themselves out on the line. But when 40,000 people were killed um they went out when the president told them to go out um and then they were slaughtered, you can't expect them to go out again. Um, and the truth be told is that our best estimates is that the vast majority of the Iranians are willing to get rid of this regime, which means that you're dealing with all of the desperate minorities from Aaris to Kurds to belug to Turks, including majority of the Persian population wants to get rid of regime. back in Lebanon, 50% of the country is Shia and they were they could be either complicit, intimidated or part of um of the Lebanese regime, which is a division of the IRGC. And the one thing I was talking with a Lebanese friend the other day um is and what I've remember going back to my time when I was studying this back in Boston um at the Kennedy School from years ago, they don't want to go back to a civil war.

[00:20:57]whether it's the Christians, the Sunnis, the Drews, they don't they do not want to have that. And so they're almost willing to live with Hezbollah, which gets us back that the going to the root cause, not just the symptom, but going to the root cause, which means going back to Iran and the regime and getting to regime collapse.

[00:21:17]>> And Dr. Nura, do do you agree with um Dr. Mandel's assessment that essentially the the the head of the octopus analogy that that should be Israel's main priority and and not confronting in Lebanon. What's your take?

[00:21:30]>> The only difference between me the and my colleague here is that I don't think it's an octopus. I think it's a it's a snake. It's the head of the snake. So I mean and ba basically the snake is eating the the is eating the the system in Lebanon. Uh it is part of the system in Lebanon. Just remember what the commander of in chief of the army when he visited the Washington and he was asked by Lindsey Graham how do you see the he said do you considerah as a terrorist organization and the answer of the commander of the the Lebanese army said very clearly not in the context of Lebanon meaning I mean it's a terrorist organization in France in UK in the states and all over the world but not in Lebanon. It is part of the system. It is part of the system. And so it will it will be very difficult to to to separate from the system. If I mean ifah continues to run its parallel state, its parallel education, its parallel militias, its parallel banking, its parallel all the activities and just ignoring all the instructions given by the government. We see that very clearly. The government issued only the three weeks ago an instruction that there will be no the firearms in in Beirut. And we see every night every night the the followers of the bala just the the the protests go all around. And when they heard that a possible agreement was was to be reached between Iran and United States, the the sky was lit with with all their weapons and and and firings. This is a a a body that do not consider does not consider itself a Lebanese. It considers itself part of the we like the the part of of the Iranian the the Iranian front. This is why the Iranians are just asking all the time to include the Lebanese front with the with the Iranian and Israel says no no way we have to separate those two those two elements and the opposition inside Lebanon say how do you drag us into such a situation.

[00:23:44]No Salam, the the prime minister said said it very clearly only before the the war between Israel. I mean, Israel controlled five points, five five strategic areas in South Lebanon. Uh, and this is what what was the the Israeli presence. And now because of Israel controls more than 68 villages in South Lebanon, 1 million Lebanese have been displaced. And now uh the effort is is concentrated on on Ty and Nabata. It means that about 250,000 more will go to Beirut which mean and they will join the 35,000 families that live in ts there.

[00:24:26]This is the this is what's happening in Lebanon today. And under with this background, you cannot reach an agreement because is is adamant to continue to fight and and still as it it's very illogic and absurd. It it enjoys 92% at least of of its base and who accept its activities against Israel.

[00:24:52]>> All right. Well, uh I have many many more questions to ask, especially on um the Gaza front. We barely touched on the recent strikes in Gaza, but we are unfortunately out of time. Uh so we do have to end it with that. But I want to thank you both so much for coming on the show today, giving us your analysis and insights. Dr. Eric Mandela, Dr. Jacqu Narya, thank you both so much for joining.

[00:25:12]>> Thank you very much.

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[00:25:55]And moving on, ID of Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Ayal Zamir attended the reception ceremony for the Gideon Refueling Squadron, which arrived in Israel recently, highlighting Israel's longd distanceance capabilities. The new aircraft, part of the Gideon Refueling Squadron, arrived actually from the United States and is expected to significantly enhance the air force's ability to operate across distant theaters, including against threats from the Islamic regime in Iran. The new Gideon aircraft will allow Israeli fighter jets to remain airborne longer, carry out extended missions at greater distances, and support continuous operations far from Israel's borders.

[00:26:37]Now, at the ceremony, Zamir sent a stark warning to the regime, saying this, quote, "The edifice of evil of the Ayatollah's regime has been noticeably cracked and its future and stability are shrouded in fog. Its leaders are hunted.

[00:26:54]Most of its military capabilities have been destroyed. Its nuclear program has been set back years. Its economy is collapsing. and its citizens have yet to grasp the magnitude of this disaster to which their extremist leaders have led them. Those are the extreme words by Lieutenant General Ayalamir, but perhaps preparing and a little bit hinting a regional escalation. And now in some semi-positive news, released hostage Rome Gonen, who spent 471 days deep in the tunnels of Gaza in Kamas captivity, is slowly and gradually returning back to her life, showing us a glimpse of humanity as she showcases her vibrant and bubbly personality, even flashing a smile in a new podcast series, In Honor, broadcast on Israel's V1 channel. Now, in one of her latest episodes, Romy Gon had a guest on her show. She actually shared a pretty funny story where her driver's license was terminated while she was in captivity in Gaza. In Israel, all drivers need to attend a refresher course. And you will never believe when her refresher course was set for. But this is actually not a sad story as her laughter and her bright smile while she's telling the story brings some lightness to such unfathomable circumstances. Take a listen.

[00:28:26]Shaloo. Shaloo. [laughter] [laughter] [laughter] [laughter] >> [laughter] >> That's definitely Israeli resilience for you. Making light of a situation that could definitely not be light at all. In fact, very dark. Um, but she symbolizes that quite perfectly. And finally, tonight, it's actually National Hamburger Day. So, from classic cheeseburgers to gourmet creations stacked skyhigh, restaurants across Israel and around the world are firing up the grill to celebrate one of the most popular foods on the planet. The hamburger is believed to have originated from German immigrants who brought Hamburg style beef to the United States in the 19th century before it evolved into the iconic sandwich that we know today. Whether you like your burger simple or fully loaded, today is the perfect excuse to indulge. And yes, fries are definitely included. And that's a wrap for this edition of ILV on the Hour, broadcasting live from Israel in the heart of the Middle East. We're here every hour on the hour with the latest breaking news, in-depth reports, and exclusive insights shaping the world and the region. I'm Devo Klein. I want to thank you all so much for watching.

[00:29:58]Don't forget to scan the QR code that's on your screen or was on your screen for more. And that's a wrap.