6:30 p.m. Live Weather Impact update

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:03:42]Heat up here.

[00:04:52]Good Tuesday evening everybody. David Paul here in the KHO11 weather center.

[00:04:57]We're about to go into an unsettled weather pattern and I wanted to begin by just looking at the extended so you can begin to get an idea of how to plan for this. 30% chance for scattered showers tomorrow. There will be rain off and on off and on. I expect it will be mostly light rain on Wednesday. That thunderstorm will be a slight chance tomorrow night. We'll go over that in just a minute. And then a chance for a scattered shower, maybe a thunder shower on Thursday, 40% rain chance on Friday, at least a 60% rain chance Saturday.

[00:05:30]And for the moment, I've backed down on rain chances to 30% on Sunday. Mother's Day Sunday may include a few little showers, but uh rain chances overall are are are lowering for Sunday. We'll take a look at all of this as we move along.

[00:05:45]Let's just extract the rain part of the forecast out. Today, we've been dry but cloudy. And that cloudiness, the moisture that will feed this rain chance tomorrow. It'll be a lot of light showers. 30% on Wednesday, 50/50 chance for rain on Thursday, 40% on Friday.

[00:06:00]Now, I've written cold front in here.

[00:06:02]There is a cold front that will push slowly into the area and just kind of stall out. We're in May, so this is the time of year when the cold fronts quite often don't have any cold air with them.

[00:06:13]That will be the case with this one, but this boundary will help to enhance the rain chance. So 60% rain chance on Saturday as the front stalls over us. It just sort of acts like a like a speed bump. You know how a speed bump lifts your car? The surface front stalled boundary helps to lift the atmosphere.

[00:06:31]And once it starts to lift, it cools, condenses, you get clouds, and you get the rain chance.

[00:06:37]High temp today went to 85. Normal is 84, so we were just about on the money.

[00:06:42]Clouds stayed pretty thick. If we had seen more sun, we could have had temps in the upper 80s, but we didn't do that because the clouds helped to keep us cooler. 231 is when the high temp came at Bush. 94 is the record high on this day in 1906. Record low is 49 in 1970 on this day. So it can be very hot or chilly still this time of the year.

[00:07:01]Conro flags little south breeze. We're cloudy. There's no rain. It's a pleasant evening, but it is noticeably warmer and really more humid. It's 82, but the due point yesterday at this time was at about 60. Today it's at 72. So much more humid. Due points in the 70s. That's summertime humidity for Houston.

[00:07:22]Southeast breeze at 10 m an hour. Air temperatures four warmer than yesterday at this time. And looking at the radar, no rain. That's a little ground clutter near the down there near the coast. But you can see lowle cloudiness and the highle cirrus coming overhead as we mentioned coming from that storm system out west that will begin to send a front our way and begin to lift the atmosphere and give us rain chances. This is going to be starting tomorrow. Let me just back this up. There we go. 8:30 in the morning. So, you're up tomorrow morning, tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning, getting going. And there will already be scattered rain showers coming up off the Gulf of Mexico from Columbus, Okama, Victoria, all the way to Galveston and Houston. So, we begin the morning with a 30% rain chance on Wednesday. We go into noon. Get the idea? Little hit or miss scattered rain showers. I'm not expecting thunderstorms during the day tomorrow, but there will be rain showers into the afternoon. 3:34, 4:30. Still pockets of rain, 30% rain chance. But this front approaches from the north. As this front sags a little further south, you can feel all the humidity in the atmosphere. That's energy. The warmth and humidity is energy that could feed thunderstorms if they can develop.

[00:08:39]That's an if. Looking at the modeling, it's not really blowing up a whole lot up here, but it is suggesting that okay, there could be a very small in scope, but large in scale. In other words, small but mighty thunderstorm could pop up somewhere in the northern quarter of our viewing area tomorrow. That's 8:00 in the evening. That until about midnight when the threat will come to an end. The Storm Prediction Center kind of got a handle on this yesterday and they've stuck with the idea that tomorrow evening, Wednesday night, there is a severe threat here along that stall that slowly sagging south boundary. The greatest threat will be here in the lower Mississippi Valley into Jackson, Mississippi, uh, and and into Alabama and Birmingham. They've got a three out of a five threat. They've got a higher threat than we do. I don't think we're going to see a lot of storms. We may not see any storms tomorrow evening, but as you saw, if one can get going, it could become small but mighty. And so, large hail and a brief tornado not out of the question. Northern uh counties from basically Highway 105 northward tomorrow is the threat. Once again, back to the 7day. So, that's tomorrow and tomorrow night. And then rain chances continue Thursday, 50% chance. Friday, 40% chance. Each day through Saturday, you need to have the umbrella handy and get ready to pop it. And you may need it all day on Saturday. So, let's move ahead and take a look at that. This is Friday morning. Already quite a bit of rain around the area, even back into central Texas, 8 a.m. Friday morning. And so, that begins this wet end of the week and the weekend. And we'll go into Friday afternoon, five o'clock in the afternoon Friday.

[00:10:27]And along that stalled boundary, you see the thunder showers and rain showers collecting. This latest run, this is the first run that's done this that this produces some pretty good rain uh in here during the uh Friday afternoon hours.

[00:10:41]So, we'll go into Saturday. There's Friday 8:00 p.m. lingering showers. So, Friday, Friday evening, look wet.

[00:10:46]Saturday morning, 8:30 widespread light to moderate rain that continues into 3:00 Saturday afternoon. What are your plans? They include a chance for rain.

[00:11:00]7:30 Saturday night, rain chance, maybe an isolated thunderstorm as end of week and weekend rain chances linger. Let's go into Sunday morning.

[00:11:10]So, here's where the improvement starts Sunday morning. Now, modeling is suggesting that the rain pushes east into the lower Mississippi Valley and the northern Gulf Coast. So, if that happens, our rain chances may drop to less than 30% beginning 8 a.m. Sunday.

[00:11:26]I'm kind of watching to see if the trend continues and then going into 1:30. This is a low res model, so maybe a slight chance for a scattered shower there Sunday afternoon, Sunday later in the afternoon. That's not much of a rain chance. So, I think we're going to be able to keep lowering rain chances for Mother's Day. How much rain?

[00:11:46]So, now through Thursday, not a whole lot. say the modeling less than a half inch in general down to the coast. So that suggests there could be one or two spots now through Thursday that see half inch to an inch of rain.

[00:12:02]Friday, again, the latest modeling, this is the first model run that this has shown up in, but it produces some pretty good rain on Friday. Maybe an inch or two or three along that stalled boundary. That's why we track those stalled boundaries, just like a speed bump. And then if you add on top of that Saturday's rain, so Friday and Saturday, those are the two heavier rain days. We could add it all up to get many spots that see 2, three, four, five inches of rain. That would be interesting being that the drought index. Uh well, it's going to update on uh Thursday in two days and it'll have all that rain we had late last week and then we get this on top of that. We're going to we're in the process of busting this drought drought report. This is as of May the 5th. So, uh, as of May the 5th. So, at the moment, rain chances, uh, rain, excuse me, rain total. So, this is this is okay. They've updated this today. No, no, no, no. This is this is from last Thursday. This is not the update.

[00:13:03]They'll update it on Thursday. As of today, we've got no drought here in a big part of central Texas. They had all that rain. We're still showing areas of moderate to extreme drought, but this doesn't include the rain we had last Friday. All that heavy rain widespread.

[00:13:21]So, I expect when we get the update on Thursday that this is going to show a much improved picture. That'll be good. We stay in this in general wetter than normal regime. Drier than normal out west.

[00:13:35]That's the 11th through the 15th. So, the wetter weather pattern kind of continues. That's the rain going into the weekend. And as we look outside right now, cloudy skies, but no rain. 82 at Bush. Hobbies 81. Sugarlands 81.

[00:13:46]Warm, breezy evening underway.

[00:13:50]Hourly forecast for tonight, just staying warm and very humid and and a little breezy. South wind 10 to 15, cloudy skies, very humid overnight.

[00:13:57]You'll be running the AC. Wednesday's numbers, 30% rain chance begins in the morning, lasts through noon, last into the afternoon, and then we'll wait and see if we get that thunderstorm in our northern counties, Huntsville, Madisonville, Livingston tomorrow evening and the extended 50% chance again on Thursday. Keep the umbrella handy on Friday. Keep it ready to go Saturday.

[00:14:26]So, Sunday, model trends, the last 24 hours, as I mentioned, have backed off on on widespread rain Sunday. I'm going to leave a 30% rain chance in there for now. It's not quite in the high-res model range yet, but if those trends continue, we may be able to back down to maybe just a 20% rain chance or even less for Mother's Day, Sunday. And then it's rather comfortable 60s and low 80s Monday, Tuesday, going into early next week. All right, active weather patterns starting tomorrow and through the weekend. That's where we stand. Have a good evening, everybody.