Macro liquidity is determined by the price of money (interest rates, especially real interest rates) and the quantity of money in the system (Fed balance sheet, reserves, private sector liquidity). Every financial asset represents an asset-liability relationship where money is not a fixed store of value but a web of claims with duration risk (uncertainty of real purchasing power over time) and credit risk (uncertainty of nominal repayments). When real interest rates turn negative, capital systematically moves out the risk curve, driving market rallies. The current credit cycle meltup is driven by expanding financial market liquidity and credit injection into the underlying economy, with AI retooling both sides of the economy and markets, creating a unique macro environment where liquidity and credit can feed on each other.
The Capital Flows LIVESTREAM: Mapping Macro Liquidity & How AI Is Changing The Transmission Mech.Added:
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ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back, James. How are we doing? Welcome everyone to Capital Flows live stream.
>> Doing good. Zoomed in.
>> Zoomed in. Gota >> zoomed in. Is that the new What does that mean now?
>> That's the new lock in. you know, everybody is locked in, but they haven't zoomed even further. You know what I mean?
>> Um, you know, it's kind of funny. I know I'm sharing something I'm writing right now, but uh I'm in one of the articles I'm writing, I'm going over how basically uh for everyone that is terminally online and that kind of whole idea. One of the things that I realized the other day is uh you know that that phrase like the closer you look, the less you see.
And I feel like that's kind of uh what what is taking place a lot more these days where it's you know people are saying like oh you just have to you know sit there and watch watch everything which I think there's definitely a big element of it. Um but I I do think it's it's uh you know you feel like you have to do something or you can get into doom scrolling whatever it might be. So it's a interesting um interesting tension when you're you know trying to go through >> very fine line right very fine line you have to be >> zoomed in so much but at the same time willing to not do anything right and uh you get there's been so many times in our our years in the markets where you get so overly focused and in the minutia that you sit back one day and you're like I don't know what's going up, you know.
>> Totally. Yeah. 100%. I think it's a I just keep thinking about the the analogy for, you know, just how how useful fire is, but then it can also hurt you. And part of using fire or dynamite or whatever it might be, you can do so many amazing things, but it can also, you know, destroy you. And it feels like that's that's like what markets, social media, everything right now is because you can be like, "Oh, I'm gonna go, you know, I'm gonna hop on and go try to find some ideas and talk with some people." And then you kind of realize an hour later, "Wait, I'm down some rabbit hole on some really dumb video." Uh, >> yeah.
>> Or you've or you've allocated some money that you did not expect to allocate, right?
>> Totally.
>> Yeah. You're like, "How did I how did I get here?" Uh, so >> that's right.
>> I think uh I think it's good. Um, for everyone who is here for the first time or they're coming back for the daily live streams, appreciate you guys showing up every single day. We'll be doing those these every single day at 8:30 a.m. Mountain Standard Time. myself and James will um just the you know the entire goal and kind of mindset we have is that our entire goal in markets is to be able to understand all the macro forces and develop a base of knowledge over time and I like to think about it is when when you are constantly understanding what is taking place and how it's taking place and the opportunities within that the the game will come to you. You'll see the moment where you say, "Oh, okay. Now I know why I have conviction here and how I'm going to execute and how I'm going to, you know, choose my spots." So, the entire goal is to be able to have these periods of time as a way that gives you not only the information, but also the I just think you could even say emotional intelligence to weight that information and know how to act on that information. And I think that is, you know, we have these kind of extremes in, you know, the media side where you're just constantly bombarded with information all day. You have everyone coming on non-stop. And then you have this other side of kind of clickbait news media which is now I think actually decreasing in its impact on the algorithm um a little bit. But I think that you know these periods of time where you can actually spend time just saying like okay let's take a step back begin to think about why do we believe these things? How should we ask hard questions about that? And if you guys were here the video and stream we did yesterday I would encourage you to go watch it. Uh, we asked some really hard questions about where we're at with the entire environment on per and I'm trying to go down to the video right here if everyone is let's see here. Yeah, this video I did right here. We went over how to think about the new updates with per and you know I I'll say this that a lot of people not only um man the comment section wants a height reveal.
It's a this is not going well. This is not going well. People are going to be underwhelmed. Uh, so one one of the things that we talked about in this video is that you need to ask hard questions, especially if you're putting your money at stake and most people don't want to ask those hard questions and and spend the time and hard work trying to figure out the answer for them. And so there are some very important updates that I put in here for how should we think about per now that we have ETFs. Is the entire value proposition irrelevant or is it now operating in a different realm of rules in the marketplace for treasury companies and ETFs.
The outcome of that is really going to be dependent on who the leadership of hyperlquid strategies and perr and so if they step up and rise to the occasion if they pull together their ability to execute which they've already shown a track record of and they're able to really add value in a way that no other treasury company has because treasury companies have historically just been centered around bag holding.
If they can do that, they will create a a system that is really centered around the revolution we're seeing in perpetuals and the renaissance we're seeing in perpetuals because we're actually seeing the users and the people who have the most information and understand the value proposition the most building the actual protocols which is why the quality of projects like Hyper liquid have been so high in a kind of sea of noise and meme coins and everything like that. So when you know when we're going through these different streams, you guys can ask I you know you guys should be asking hard questions in the comment section like that should be one of your jobs is to say how should we think about this this and this because that's where you're going to begin to differentiate yourself and differentiate the views that you have. With that being said, the place that I want to start and I I laid this out yesterday in part in the thread that I published on the credit cycle. I want to start here because when we think about this idea of macro, it is all about what is the largest driver of returns in the cycle. And this, you know, if if you guys are, you know, following all of the indicators and models that you can get for free. For example, you know, we we talked about we we went over Qualcomm the other day, which, you know, by the way, pretty great that we were talking about it in real time. We were basically at the high right here a couple days ago and James is just saying, "Yeah, I'm peeling off some of the calls because I want to, you know, lock in some of the gain." we had a lot of the fundamentals price in things and now you know it makes sense we've had a couple days where we pulled back not surprising overall right and so I just think you know even just recognizing that in real time and saying oh maybe maybe you know you can recognize that you can just take a little bit off you can always change your mind and put it back on later and you know that's a a very important thing to kind of just think about but on the idea of macro here's here's how you want to think about macro right here is you know the attribution of returns that we have for Qualcom. Now when we think about what is driving the returns of every individual stock or the broad market it all comes down to 80% of all returns in the majority of asset classes stem from what we call macroeconomic forces about 80%. So any day that something moves, typically 80% of it is from the macro side of things. And I'll actually show you in the dashboard that I have.
Let me pull this up.
When we track equities and we go into, you know, what are the drivers in equities? Me go here. You know, here's a breakdown of all of the underlying drivers in the equity market. And what you'll notice is you have your market returns, sector returns, and then fundamental returns. And you know, we can go to, you know, something like materials or consumer discretionary or consumer staples. We can look at how much of each part of the returns are from certain parts of the market. And what we are doing is saying okay how much what we need to do is have a view on each section of these returns and say okay how much is from the market how much is from the sector and how much is from fundamentals. That market element and that sector element is fundamentally about macroeconomic changes in growth inflation and liquidity. And then the fundamentals function on the foundation of that where they are the outperformers or underperformers on top of the macro base that is already pre-existing.
And so if you can begin to stack these different views and say, okay, I need to have a view about, you know, multiple things at the same time, stack them on top of each other. And this is really where the analogy James brings in about pages in a book. How can I really think about the different elements and pages that I can have in a trade idea? And the entire idea of macro is how can we stack all of those drivers and ideas on top of each other. And so when we you know come to these sessions you know I always say the entire goal that I have and this is not even just for these you know sessions that we're doing and you guys are a part of but in our private conversations and all the models that I build this is just how I break things down. So I'm only just sharing every single thing that I'm doing every single day anyway. Map the macro regime so you're on the right side of it and find a few large asymmetric bets that function as home run trades.
That's my entire goal in markets. It's very simple. It's not complicated. My largest bets right now, as you know, are PER and Oracle. Um, I've been those are kind of the home runs that I'm trying to hit. And then, you know, we've been sharing the other, you know, kind of singles that we're trying to bat as well because at the end of the day, you know, when you're in markets, you need to be able to bat singles and home runs, but you're always trying to get the home run and the grand slam, but in the interim, you still need to bat singles. And so when we, you know, think about that, pull this up.
>> That, >> by the way, batting signal s batting singles and doubles, sorry, can help you can better help you hold the home runs, right? They could get you that ne necessity to actually act and do something. Maybe that's where, like for me, for instance, I'm in a couple futures trades now. That allows me to breathe and not feel like I have to do something with my home run trades. It actually helps me pull back on those and just let them go.
Break break break that down a little bit more because I think even in the um you know, the pole tudtor Jones interview that we had the other day where he's talking about being up at 2 am checking the market. I guarantee you he doesn't always have a home run trade on, >> but he's doing that all the time, right?
maybe kind of talk through how you're getting up at 2 am. No, I'm kid. Uh, but how you're thinking about how you think about just that process of how batting singles keeps you warm for the actual home run that comes.
>> Yeah, that's something we discuss a lot is I like to be loose and warmed up. I think we've used the analogy before of like I want to be shadow boxing before I actually get in the ring. I want to be kind of sweating already so that I'm um not coming into something cold and just swinging for the fences. I want to actually feel out the market. I want to feel the price. I want to feel that fighter that I'm against so that when the time comes, I'm ready to just size and scale right away. So, I'm constantly taking singles and doubles, whether that's insignificant size. Like I I've gotten to the point where I don't care about my size so much. I don't care what people think about my size and whatever because I know I have in the tank the ability to really unload the clip. So I will trade I mean I'll trade a one lot if I need to in futures just to just to feel something right. And I I'll often say like I come here every day and a lot of the times well I'll deal with like this need or expectation of things to happen. I need to feel like I'm moving forward. So sometimes if I get that feeling too much, I'll make unwanted changes or alterations or come up with some story that I have to like alter what I'm doing in the big grand scheme of things maybe with those home run trades. But I don't want to do that, right? Because fundamentally nothing's changed in those positions and I don't want to make a a tax implication or or whatever. So, in the meantime, I will address other markets to kind of um help fulfill that need to feel like I'm doing something or accomplishing something. And that will keep me loose, give me new ideas, cross-c collateralize how I'm thinking about things, and ultimately lead me back towards the home run stuff in the end. But that's that's that's kind of what I mean here.
>> Yeah, absolutely. I think um I think that is just just something that's underappreciated in terms of the the process itself and all of these little details even you know I think about even for me there's always little pieces of news items or information releases or conversations that I have and you know I those are always coming out in real time. And one of the things that's very hard to back test is understanding how all of the big moving parts fit together in real time. And for example, like one of the hard things to back test is saying, "Oh, a big piece of information came out and I know it's a big piece of information, but it didn't move the market at all." Oh, well, how are you going to go, you know, figure that out? I mean, I know that, you know, we have new speeds that you can decompose into time series now, but at the end of the day, if you know how to weight those, that's not super easy to do in a back test. And I know there's going to be some quant out there that's like, "No, no, no. We know how to do it." And I'm just like, "No, man. You you don't >> you know, so it's just understanding, you know, even the absence of moves sends a signal, right? And that is just one of the things that I watch a lot."
You would never know that if you're just saying like, "Oh, well, I'm just going to wait till alerts on my phone pop up and I'll come back to the desk or whatever it might be." Right? So, I think that's why even, you know, for everyone who's here, even if you're just kind of going about your day or working on the regular projects that you're having and just having this live stream up just in the background at the very least is something that is just going to help you a ton to be able to just say, "Oh, here's another idea that you can kind of like stack and just kind of put in the back of your mind." And I think that's, you know, our private group chat all the time is just, "Oh, here's another idea. Just keep in the back of my mind. Oh, this anthropic guy said this, this CEO said this, this, you know, other person said this. And just continuously adding those kind of elements is really interesting.
>> And if you haven't got watched this, I I found this to be one of the better videos I've like ever watched. I mean, some some just speak to you directly, right? and I talk a lot about mindset stuff and whatever, but if you haven't followed Jared, I mean, Floss has talked to him multiple times. He runs liquidation nation and he's been making this video series that's been absolutely I don't know, unbelievable. And this last one called the shadow book has just been so good. It's not the shadow book as in like the dark pools and all that, but rather your shadow book that talks about the positions and the things you don't want to admit that you have in your book and you never talk about.
Maybe you're just like a bag holder, community member, whatever. But there's a part in here where he mentions emotional debt. And I thought that was a really good thing to what we're talking about right now. And that is that like you'll often be showing up every day.
You'll feeling like you need to do something. You'll have you'll be creating this emotional debt. Whether or not that's a good debt, a bad debt, whatever, to where you feel like you need to fix that. You will need to change your state, change your way of being. And in order to do that, you might add to a position that's losing, right? Or you might get rid of a position that's losing just to like, you know, cut the position and not feel the pain anymore. And those are like shadow book decisions that you make. So because I know that I am very susceptible to that and I don't want to do that to my larger grander positions that maybe do affect me, I'll often execute the small little trades to fulfill that emotional debt that's been um building up inside of me. So if you haven't watched this specific video, I would highly suggest going and doing that now. So I know you've talked to him a lot. Shout out to Jared. Yeah, I mean Jared is a very um giving person. I think um I've been This just goes back to I'm still shocked more people don't do this, but you know, I just hit him up and said, "Hey, can I hop on a phone call with you and just ask you a bunch of questions?" um cuz he has so many experiences that I've you know never had or probably won't have in the future just given all the different places he's worked at people he's interacted with and you know we'll talk about different ideas but you know just asking him hey I'm building this I'm trying to figure this out can you give me some feedback on this and he's just always been very gracious with his time um and I think that you know especially on online right now There are so many pretty amazing people that, you know, it'd be pretty easy to message them and get on a phone call with them and they're pretty heavy hitters. They just don't have a big social media following. And I think that's just that's one of the biggest inefficiencies of like the internet right now is that some of the biggest players or you know people with the most significant experience they don't have a massive following which is like an inefficiency in a sense right because they're not playing the game of the algorithm. And so you can actually message them, talk to them, go meet up with them in person, take them out to dinner, take them to coffee or whatever it might be and show initiative. And that in itself, I think people underestimate how much, you know, people who are investors, how much, you know, we just value initiative and just saying like, oh, this guy is just doing all this stuff. He doesn't have it all figured out, but this is the direction he's going and this is his trajectory and yeah, if I extrapolate that, he's probably going to do X, Y, and Z. So, I want to be connected to that guy.
>> And that's a trade in itself, right?
That's finding a trade or an inefficiency in a market with some edge and executing on it, right? You feel like his his value is so insane compared to what the market is basically treating it as. and you have the ability to go in there and basically get a good fill and interacting with him in a spot where if it was somebody else, even your favorite K that you know on Twitter, good luck messaging them and getting a response.
So finding that discrepancy is like >> crazy alpha and that that pays so many dividend like how many conversations have you had with them now? probably what, five, six conversations. Like some of the stuff you've taken away from that is going to pay off in some big bet you make down the road. You just like don't see it yet right now.
>> Yeah, 100%. 100%. I think that's, you know, go going back to this thesis that I've been laying out. You know, this is something I bounce off people all the time to get their thoughts on, especially to get people's informed views on because, you know, one of the things that we talked about in the end of the last video from yesterday, which I mean, if you guys haven't watched it, you guys need to go watch it. We covered everything yesterday. Um, and again, you can go through all the the I mean, I put in all the links on the website every single day, but you guys can go through everything on the the channel and let me see here.
Yeah, right here. If you guys are on the Capital Flows Research channel, just go to the live tab and every single live stream, every single thing I've ever done, I guess, is on there. Um, and you know, you can go to the videos and everything else, but everything is laid out there. But on this idea that I laid out, this is really where we're going to start u today's breakdown. And I want to go over several distinctions and ideas that you're going to want to really anchor to because when you have these different ideas of, okay, how bullish, how bearish are things, how does that connect to the liquidity that we see in the system? How does that connect to interest rates?
And with all of that, uh, you know, kind of coming together, you know, use this thread or whatever it might be to send to someone to say, here is kind of a really good synthesis of how I'm thinking about things. Or you can just say, oh, here I I agree with these parts of the thread, but then these are other things that I'm seeing that I maybe would add to the thread or disagree or whatever it might be, right?
you know, use these and just copy in them and share them with people or whatever it might be to kind of say like here's a thesis that I'm thinking about.
Let's discuss this. The idea that I started with is that, you know, since 2022, we have begun to enter what we would call unknown territory. And the reason why is not just because we haven't been here before, but because we have the collocation of multiple elements that are creating a very unique circumstance.
For example, the fact that we have the level of globalization that we have, the fact that we have the dollar reserve currency, the fact that we have the Fed in the position that it's at right now with the level of a balance sheet it's at. And then on top of all of that, we have one of the greatest retoolings of the underlying economy and financial market. And one of the critical things that has really served me not only in testing ideas, but really bringing things back to how do I develop a view is that meltups are not just driven by euphoria or sentiment.
In you know my view euphoria and sentiment are a reflection. You know, you can have maybe euphoria and sentiment, whatever it might be, push around a single stock that has a low float, but a entire market, it just really doesn't happen. It's always driven by liquidity and credit. And these are directly linked to the AI retooling occurring in the financial market and underlying economy. This is key, not just the market, but also the economy.
And when you begin to shift your mindset because a lot of um older school people and you know I don't I don't say this as as a as a knock or anything like that is you know Warren Buffett has put up one of the best track records in history for just managing money aggregating assets and everything that he's done. And he has really propagated this view about value investing. And I think it's great if you are someone with a 20-year time horizon is fine holding cash and also has the information and deal flow that he has and is going to really differentiate yourself as it relates to like a longer term time horizon.
However, this entire idea that well, I don't know what the market is doing, but I know that if it's really overvalued, then it's just people being stupid or if it's really undervalued, then it's just again people being stupid or Mr. Market not really understanding the situation.
Fundamentally, we don't actually even see that in history, especially with the level of efficiency we have in U in the modern US financial markets. When you have valuations expanding, there is no indication that okay, well, that's people being stupid because we have, you know, valuations increasing pretty significantly over the last four years, three years. And if you just said, oh, we're at high valuations.
People don't know what they're talking about or doing. Um, I'm just going to leave the system. That in itself is a risk because you risk losing real purchasing power by just holding cash.
And one of the kind of things that I one of the charts that I shared and let me pull this up really fast is this see idea about holding cash and the returns that you get on it. And you can even see right here, here's a chart of Birkshshire Hathaway. And Birkshshire Hathway is a great beta in the market.
But you can also recognize that, you know, when we had the draw down in 2025, it actually rallied. Why? Because it had so much cash on its balance sheet. So they have so much cash that when you have market corrections, it's actually rallying. That tells you about where we're at in terms of what the expectation of holding cash is.
Then the opposite happens where now it hasn't even made a new high. And the reason why is because it holds so much cash relative to its assets. And so when you have these meltups like this, then you have this underperformance because they're holding so much cash on the balance sheet. People will say, "Oh, well, they're just being conservative.
It'll come. We'll have another 2008."
Yeah, that's totally fine. All I'm saying and all you have to acknowledge in the situation is what are the tradeoffs that you're taking to do that because you know you have all these periods of time where Birkshshire underperforms which is totally fine right like if you want the underperformance that's fine you just have to recognize that that has tradeoffs in itself there are tradeoffs for that you know if you just look at what what we're at overall you know you can see I'll actually put this on the same axis so you can kind get an idea.
You know, markets up 176%, Birkshshire is up 136, you know, and then if we go to a longer time horizon, obviously Birkshshire does incredibly well. And part of the reason for that is because of the capital they were able to deploy in 2008, right? But the, you know, we go, especially if we go back to 2008 from the lows, now we have kind of a different profile where the S&P 500 over the last here S&P 500 of the last where we at since 2015 has outperformed marginally Birkshshire Hathaway. And so that's a great example about how the equity risk curve functions and how holding cash can sometimes have a trade-off. I'm not telling anyone to not buy Birkshshire or, you know, Buffett has obviously done incredibly well. I'm just saying ask hard questions about why that's taking place. That's all you need to do so you can understand the trade-off for how that is functioning in the system itself. And so when we talk about the credit cycle, when money is increasing or decreasing in the system, that is the driver behind why a company that holds a ton of cash on their balance sheet that is technically, you know, maybe losing money in real terms is getting priced because you might see nominal numbers, but the market price is real numbers.
And so the entire point of this thread is to say let's go over the most important driver of these floats. And the current credit cycle meltup that is taking place is driven by two factors. Financial market liquidity is expanding at the same time that credit is being injected into the underlying economy. So these are two different ideas and you want to make sure that you don't conflate these.
Financial market liquidity is all about the changes that we see in the amount of money in the financial system that does not necessarily find its way into the underlying economy. So for example, if the Fed increases reserves or decreases reserves on their balance sheet, that does not directly flow into the economy.
There's a transmission mechanism where it could, but we've seen periods of time like the 2010s where it doesn't. If you even go and again this is you know let me pull this let me pull this chart up.
If you if you just go and look and again ask hard questions, notice that during the period of time in the the 2010s, go notice that in the 2010s, you actually had the balance sheet contracting and equities continue to rally. And then you also have, you know, this entire period of time where the balance sheet expanded, we had inflation basically down at these lows right here at 2%. So an immediate expansion or contraction in the balance sheet does not inherently transfer into inflation or inherently transfer into asset prices because you need to know the transmission mechanism for that. It's only one mechanism and one input into it. However, that input is primarily felt in public markets.
On the other side, when we think about credit, and this goes back to the distinction that I made right here, is that credit is about money being injected into the underlying economy.
And credit is always one person's asset and another person's liability. So, for example, when you have credit, you are think about all the capex that's being taken out. People are taking out debt to do that. When that credit injects into the system, a bank is giving that to let's say Oracle or let's say another Mag 7 company to e do capex or to buy back stock or something like that. And the idea here is that when that bank gives it to them, that's now an asset to the bank because they're getting paid on it every single day. It could be an asset to you if you hold a high yield ETF or a regular investment grade ETF.
That asset to the bank or to you is a liability to that company. And so the the reflexive feedback loop that can occur between the market and the economy is that when both of those are expanding, they can feed on each other.
And so when you have credit increasing the underlying economy and market liquidity expanding at the same time, that's when the largest credit cycle meltups occur. And so that allows them to feed on each other. Now, at the same time that is taking place, you have a very unique thing occurring in the US economy right now where AI is fundamentally retooling both sides of the economy and also both the economy and the market.
So this idea about liquidity being injected into the financial market and credit being injected into the underlying economy, that wouldn't be as big of a deal if AI was only retooling one. But AI is fundamentally retooling both. And we already seen that in all the evidence across everything, especially in things like the the movement where we have all of these layoffs occurring in the economy while, you know, companies are still while companies are still functionally increasing earnings and trying to adjust this new capex spend.
And so you have that taking place right now. And then when we go to this idea of how it's retooling the economy, it's at a pace where goods and services are transacted faster in the economy right now. This actually changes liquidity because it now costs a lot less to spin up a company, market it, and build a brand. This can happen with very little upfront capital, which means that more businesses generate cash flow with less upfront investment. So just think about it. Liquidity and capital in the market is all about supply and demand. How much demand is there for capital and how much supply for capital is there? What just happened over the last several years when you can have these entire products for AI actually be able to retool things. Now when you need less capital to start a business that's functionally a liquidity impulse in the market. So it's a basic supply and demand relationship. So on net this injects more cash into the system without being you know very capital intensive. So the same thing is happening in financial markets as well.
That's why we see this entire rise of zerodt options and all these other financial derivatives because when those come into the market you are shortening and shortening the time frame and adding more and more liquidity so that someone with you know a hundred bucks can now move so much more size than they could previously in history. And so we are seeing every single level begin to open the release valve of what can cause buying pressure in the market. And the problem is that there's an increasing amount of money still chasing the same amount of investments in the economy and the market. And now all of them are operating even faster due to all the changes in AI. And again, if you want to go through all these reports and how these are functioning and get all the updates every single day, just go to the website capitalflows research.com. Go to all the educational primers right here and then go through. You can see all the different changes that are taking place, especially in the equity strategy section. I would encourage you to wa watch this video, go through this research right here and all of the equity side of things right here. And that will really break down how these different flows are functioning. And so going back to this initial thread that I did, the biggest misconception in markets right now is thinking that AI or the macro credit cycle are independent.
Right now the capex side of the market is helping drive spending in the underlying economy as oil prices surge, which is helping push long-end interest rates marginally higher. So the idea here in this chart that I shared is that when you have this buildout in capex, what does that even mean? When someone's saying, "Oh, I need to build out more data centers." What does that mean? That means you need to build physical locations. That means construction, which means companies like Caterpillar are getting crosscolateralized with the AI capex spending. So just think about it for the like this for a second. Maybe in the past if you're building a SAS product, you're just saying I just need software engineers, right? And everyone said, "Oh, learn how to code. Become a software engineer, you know, in the 2010s because that's just the best thing that you can do. You can make so much money." Then everyone went that direction and they realized, "Oh, maybe that was a really dumb idea." Now, what's taking place is you're having a massive rebalancing because the biggest con the biggest constraint is around all of the hardware and physical side of the economy. Which is why you see correlations exactly like this happening when you have Caterpillar moving in lock step with the Goldman STAX US AI beneficiaries versus at risk index. So the idea behind this chart is that we have now the parts of the economy that are responsible for construction and you have that now connected to all of the AI capex spend. And so that's the idea that we are seeing right now. Now when you begin to connect those two things then you can understand how hardware and software are retooling both sides of the economy. And this is happening not just in the United States.
So this is really where we connect this to this bigger picture idea about crossber flows where uh you know and again we've been doing videos on this every single week. I can't I can't you know emphasize enough how when you understand how there's a rebuild out in another country then you know think about it if if another country is doing AI infrastructure spend and the expected return on investment is higher than a return spend over here I might then convert my dollars to that other local currency and invest in that project and that's what we call crossber flows and so when you see things like this where you have a buildout in another country that is beginning to crosscolateralize the construction and spending of these other countries with these larger forces in capex, the debt to be taken out for it and everything else. Now add in the fact that this is happening in China who is the biggest adversary of the United States whether you want to acknowledge it or not. There's an economic warfare going on. That's why the meeting that's taking place this week is so significant.
And you have China spending a ton of money to be able to compete in this domain. And so um again you can go through you know I did a whole video yesterday. It's linked right here on how that connects to crossber flows. But the idea here is that global trade has been going through the roof for decades now.
And ever since the 1950s we have seen a dramatic shift. And then since the '9s when China was added to the World Trade Organization, you have had a pretty significant cross collateralization in these flows. And now what is taking place is imagine this is an income for everyone. People want to get the largest portion of that and that's really the idea about where we're at with crossber flows and how it's functioning.
So with the with the AI trade as well and the injection of from both sides for like a liquidity impulse it is also important right that every country fullheartedly believes that the AI spend is necessary right and that it's basically a national security issue and that everything points to that that's only going to support this to continue effectively until like all of the infrastructure And this all kind of plays out over probably multiple years.
Is that accurate?
>> Yeah. I think this is just I mean this is why I mean there's so much spending that takes place in the world when you have an adversary because or people don't even say it's adversary. You can just say malicious actors because for example, if I don't if I can't trust that I'm going to be safe when I walk outside, I have to have the police department to provide safety. Think about how much money we spend on police department every single year. We need that because there are malicious actors in the system. But imagine if you took all that money that would be spent on police officers and was put all toward finding a cure for cancer or finding some new innovative product or some technology that would begin to dramatically change how money flowed in the system and how resources are used.
But overlay the fact that you have not only in the globe but also locally and then even between corporations people that are not the people that don't have your best interests at heart.
And so that means you need to spend more money just maintaining your competitive edge and competitive mode. And so on the AI side and then this actually relates to the space side as well which we've been talking about and investing in personally is the entire AI race and space race is the idea that we need to have a competitive edge in that arena because if we don't one I mean we need to because all these corporations are competing against each other to get there but two is like a lot of the space dynamics that are taking place is the fact that well we need to be able to have a competitive edge there because we can't have China, Russia or some other country get an edge in a place that we don't have any control over. So I think that's one of the key things that's why we have so much spending there. A lot of the spending is just simply saying hey we have to get to we have to have a base on the moon before China. So spend whatever is needed and just get there. Same thing for the AI side, which is why the US uh administration is so involved on the AI side and why it's so I just think important to you know recognize because it's just it's just like the the outcome here is you know if I tell you hey if uh if uh if we win this you know race that we have it's not that you'll just be kicked out of making money but I take half of your net worth or half of your money then you're just like oh well then I need to trip that guy on the Yeah, because I'm not going to I'm not going to risk losing that and risk losing my family or whatever else might be. And you know, especially people who don't have the same ethics or morals that people should have, that injects a lot more maliciousness.
And it's it's literally the exact reason why we're seeing the entire uh court case between Elon and Sam Alman. you know, by def like the fact that we have that court case, regardless of who you think is right or wrong, is an indication that there are people that will act with malicious intent, whoever that might be. Like, we wouldn't even have the court system and spend all that money if we didn't know that, well, people are not going to always act in the best interest of other people.
Could I just add that whenever the first data center goes live on the moon, that's that's going to be the high.
Okay, folks. That's that's I mean, talk about a sell the news event. I mean, the markets and and hear me out, I'm a dad.
>> They're just gonna crater.
>> Nice pun. Great pun.
>> They're going to crater. They're gonna crater.
>> They're gonna crater.
>> I I think it would be really cool. Um, and it's actually funny. The the TBPN guys, I think, talked about this. Um, I think NASA should do they they were talking about how NASA was live streaming stuff and then one of the guys had some thing. I don't know if it was intentional or not. I forgot what the whole thing was, but like they basically like shared a product in the NASA live stream on the moon or something like that. Intentionally unintentionally. I don't I don't know if they got paid for it. I I don't remember the details. But it is funny how it's like, dude, if you're like doing something like that, you should be live streaming it and like selling merch and doing all this like crazy stuff and use that to fund. Like, dude, I'm going to watch the live stream and I'll buy I'll buy a hat, you know, like the first data center going live on the moon >> and like, dude, like we have to pay for the rocket fuel somehow. Um, let's have some fun while we're doing it, you know?
So, >> this segment this segment of the uh broadcast from from uh the moon was brought to you by like you know insert whatever Chick-fil-A.
>> Yeah, they could be doing anything. It's fantastic.
>> Totally. it would it become like Super Bowl commercials and all that like you know you could have >> I mean so just a quick side note I remember one of the worst examples of this was I was down in Miami on uh like South Beach or something for Art Basil and I went to the beach because I'm like well I got you know I got to go enjoy a day at the beach right I'm looking out in the water now I love the ocean staring out in the water it's an amazing like whatever zen relaxation technique I look out and there is a boat slowly going by with a giant LED monitor that was uh promoting CocaCola. Just a boat that goes back and forth along the beach. So now you can't even look out at the ocean. And that is going to be the perfect example of like the moon. You know what I mean? They're going to have the advertising on the moon. I mean, we we just can't help but do this to ourselves. It's amazing. We take away everything that's great. Maybe we'll make it like a national park, right, where it's like uh you know, you can't do anything here. Um we'll see.
>> Uh on on this idea of you know, global trade, I think that we are already seeing it crossc collateralized with other credit. So basically this idea that I laid out above about credit being injected into the system, you know, companies like Alphabet, Google are now issuing debt not in dollars but in the yen. So you can begin to see that we're cross collateralizing and these are small but these are indications of what is to be that we are having really significant yen denominated bond sales on a multi-ranch offering spanning maturities of 3 5 7 10 15 20 30 and 40 years and the entire idea is that now different companies Amazon included they're issuing uh a Swiss Frank bond offering you a six-part deal. And so you have all these different companies offering debt now in other currencies which is crossc collateralizing their outcome with that currency.
And so all of this is taking place at the same time you have share buybacks take place. Um I'll have to share a chart of this later but S&P 500 share buybacks are increasing right now. So they're up only 3% this year. And then you have AI capex taking place. I mean, just think about this is companies are still buying back shares even though they could spend more money on capex. So there that when I see that, it's basically me looking at that and saying, "Okay, these companies have so much money that even after all their capex, they're still like, ah, let's buy back some shares."
That that that's where we're at. And people are gonna and people are saying liquidity is contracting. All right. On the micro market and micro structure of the market side, we are having a more and more concentrated flow in the ETF and passive vehicle complex. So, the ETF market added 85 new funds in April, bringing the year-to-ate launches up to 341 new ETFs, up 9.3% from the same period last year, keeping the same industry on pace to set a,000 plus launch uh year after 2025's record of 115 or one, excuse me, 1,15.
The surge increasingly reflects issuers race to push actively managed and derivative heavy products into the market as firms scramble to differentiate in an ETF industry where plain vanilla beta exposures rapidly become commoditized. Here's what I'll say about this. All of these different ETFs that are getting launched are basically them forming fees because people who are buying these new ETFs, all it is is the same beta wrapped in a different thing with higher fees because I guarantee you none of those actively managed ETFs actually have traders who know what they're doing because if they did, they would be a fund. And you know, running running an actively managed ETF is so incredibly challenging because you can, you know, this actually happened in the ARC ETF when they bought a bunch of lowflat stuff and that began to actually move the market because of how large the AUM was in 2021. So all of these factors that we are seeing all connect to the compressing of tails. So you can see in the chart here in red um uh or excuse me in the yellow or moving into the you know red period of time uh you can see we're up in ETFs especially on a year-to-ate basis compared to the same period last year. So I think this is just going to continue more and more and it's the continuous way that that liquidity in markets flows and then on top of all of this when we see the capex spending and every single kind of element in the market as liquidity expands capital is moving out the risk curve. So, a lot of uninformed market participants, right? They're just kind of following whatever consensus is, or they'll wrap something in a cool narrative or they'll kind of come up with these charts that are ever changing. They're taking refuge in the idea that capital or liquidity might be contracting.
There's basically no evidence of this. I mean, you can basically say, oh, the Fed balance sheet is contracting on a rate of change or contracting on a rate of change basis. Okay. Again, you know, why don't we go back and back test that? Not a great way to just look at that on an isolated basis. When you see the Goldman Sachs high yield index making an all-time high, these are all the companies that have the highest risk in the system. By definition, these are falling when liquidity is just flat. You can see even in 2021, you know, before we entered the bare market of 2022, we were just chopping in a range and we actually made a low in this index before we even entered a bare market in 2022.
So again, you know, when you pull together all the signals and don't just anchor to the ones that have confirmation bias for whatever you're trying to talk about, then you can begin to see how much liquidity is in the system. And then this connects to the acceleration we're seeing with the geopolitical shock, which is, you know, just this idea of you have the initial overreaction and now we're basically here where you're having the geopolitical situation is still, you know, ongoing, but the market has made all-time highs. And now even the CPI prints and PPI prints are not dragging markets down that much. All of this is building as real interest rates are 30 bips from making a negative print.
Once one-year real interest rates make a negative print, it will be something that reverberates across everything because then holding capital on a one-year basis is actually going to have a negative return in real terms. You'll say, "Oh, but I'm making money every single month because interest rates are three and a half%." In nominal terms, yes. But again, people the the hardest part to understand about interest rates is that there's changes in real purchasing power and we all think in nominal terms. So once you can begin to shift your mindset and say how is real purchasing power reverberating across the risk curve, that's when you can begin to understand why massive meltups can occur. And that's why I put this chart here of the nicke which you know it had uh almost 100% yearly return. This is not even to the high. This is just at the end of the year what was the return? We could have rallied even more and then come back down and then had a almost 100% return in the 70s. And so you know when people are saying oh the market's up 20% year to date it has to go down. Well just think about what's taken place in history so far.
on that real interest rates chart. It's pretty wild to really see how negative they can really go. I mean, in the 2020 2021 is that I'm having a hard time reading that, but is that like 400 basis points?
>> Yeah, we went negative 4%. So, basically, if you held >> you basically lost 4% a year if you held cash.
>> Yeah.
So, and again, people are like, "Well, I didn't lose any money." Well, you lost in real terms. They're never going to talk about losing money. They'll just talk about how prices are going up, >> right?
>> And I think this goes back to the idea of understanding money, which is what what I want to cover right now is how do you understand money? Money is not this objective thing that sits in your bank account and you're like, "Yeah, that's that's uh not losing money, right?"
there's always trade-offs because that money reflects an asset liability relationship. And so, you know, the the rest of this thread breaks down that we have a very unique situation where every single kind of macro factor has brought us to what I've been calling the macro endgame for a while because it's not just about a single sector in the equity market like housing in 2008. It's not just about tech stocks like it was in 2000. It's now about the tech stocks, the retooling of the economy, the global carry trade, the changes in real purchasing power, the global trade situation, the dollar reserve currency status, and then on top of all that, we have inflation in the system. And so that's why we have the highest valuations in US history on a price to sales ratio basis for the S&P 500.
And so when we you know again these are all you can go through this entire thread. I would encourage you to go through it and you know if you're here and watching this uh you know I really appreciate it if you're able to retweet the top tweet share that and send it to someone who you want to have a discussion with and say hey how would this fit into your view or how does this contradict or confirm or help refine so that you can just start that conversation of what's taking place. So when we have all those factors, we need to begin to say, okay, we understand what the signals are for the credit cycle, why is it that real interest rates or money and the changes in liquidity, why is it that they function the way that they do? And this brings us to again this entire slide deck that I'm going to walk you through where I'm going to lay that out for you. This will all be laid out on the website after this. So, if you want to get this slide deck, go to capital flows research.com and go to the I'll send out this slide deck later. You can go through the one that I did yesterday. Again, this is probably one of the most important videos we've done in a while. Um, where you have a whole breakdown of what we covered in the video and you also have the slide deck right there. And so, and I'll send out the link for what's taking place every single day. And then I also have uh typically almost every day a paid subscriber section going down further breaking down the more in-depth things for paid subscribers. So again, if you want this slide deck, it'll be laid on the website. All you have to do is become a subscriber. Free subscriber.
Just become a free subscriber. Um it'll be on the website wherever you're watching this. It'll be in the link in my bio or link below or whatever and you'll be able to be a subscriber very easily. So all the charts and everything it'll be laid out on the website and then again all the proprietary research is also on the website for paid subscribers as well. What I want to start with is this idea of money because you know when we talk about this chart of real interest rates and say okay real interest rates were negative in 2021 right here. And people will say again, people will kind of shift that narrative a little bit and they'll say, "Well, I didn't lose any money though. I looked at my bank account and it was the same amount of money in the system or the same amount of money in my bank account." And then they'll complain about prices going up. And what you fundamentally need to understand is that money is not a thing. It is a web of asset liability relationships. So your money is only valuable in so much as it has purchasing power over goods, assets or goods, services or assets in the economy. So there is no definition of money. So when people are saying here's a definition of money, it's a unit of exchange, fixed store of value, a store of value, something like that. There is no one to enforce that rule. So it's by definition, it's not a definition.
Because if it was a definition, then there would be someone who would come and enforce that upon your life. You know, you could say like, well, well, you know, this you you could even say like, for example, like for if you're speeding, you can get a ticket. Why?
Because there's a set definition of what the speed limit is. And if you don't do that, you can't just say like, oh, well, it's just whatever. You actually have someone that can enforce that and put a constraint on your life. Say, if you don't do this, you're going to go here.
In the money side with money, there is no set definition of what money is. Just doesn't exist. And again, people are coming up with these things that they're throwing out there to make themselves feel better and to have a little bit more stability in the system. But at the end of the day, there are no rules.
There is no set definition. Once you begin to shift your mindset and realize that gold is not money, Bitcoin is not money. There there is no definition.
There is no one to enforce that. Once you begin to realize that, that's when your kind of entire perception around what nominal and real changes take place and that this is just a web of asset liability relationships. Then you can begin to see how that functions in the system. And so what counts is what is the liquidity of the claim and what is the confidence behind it. So for example, you know, in the same way that you can have confidence in a currency, you can also have confidence in a company and how that asset functions on the asset liability curve. I mean, you have to remember money itself is not about a currency inherently or about oh well, it's this piece of paper in my hand because money is about an asset liability relationship. Cash in the system is simply an asset. It is simply another asset that exists. And in the financial system, every person's financial asset is someone else's liability. So, for example, the dollar is an asset to me, but it's a liability to the US government. And you know, you could say, oh, well, I'm, you know, you could say, oh, well, you know, there's some things that don't have an asset liability relationship or stuff like that. At the end of the day, you know, in especially in the modern world, if you have something that functions as an asset, then you know, that's why even real estate, there's taxes exerted on that for property taxes or other type of taxes to be able to buy that itself.
That in itself is creating a liability.
Even though it's not a piece of debt, it is creating a constraint or a liability, which is why we call taxes a tax liability sometime. And so your bank deposit is an asset to you and a liability to the bank. A treasury is an asset to investors and a liability to the government. And so in modern economies, the vast majority of money is credit. So for example great example is that US treasuries especially bills are functionally considered money in our system because of how they function in the as you know they how they can be functioned in terms of collateral and reserves and stuff like that but fundamentally that is a liability to the government. It's just a different quality of a liability and it promises to pay in the future not physical currency in the circulation as a money and credit are many times interchangeable with what exactly the nominal and real purchasing power of them are. So when a bank lends it creates an asset and a liability at the same time and purchasing power expands without any cash by the government being printed.
So, you know, we could easily between each other create money by just creating IUs where we're able to have some type of dimension that we're able to transact our goods and services. And we do this intuitively already with kind of the social capital that we have with each other or friendships we have with each other. So when we have this web of asset liability relationships, this is what begins to build the balance sheet where you have reserves and QE and bond purchases and all these things functioning around the asset liability relationships of things like central banks, households and you have flows between these asset liability relationships.
And so th this is the entire point of capital flows is if you can map the asset liability relationships between each player central banks, households, consumers, the flows of capital are the transactions that take place between those. And so if you think about even the buying and selling of stock, that is inherently a flow of capital between two different balance sheets. And so, you know, this is why we go through things like M2 or the Fed balance sheet and say, well, what's the difference between them and why is it that those are different? Because a lot of people are just going to take one data point, look at the rate of change, and say it's going up over time to confirm their narrative when in reality, there's multiple levels to how liquidity even works. And so every claim, every asset or liability has one of two things or both, duration risk and credit risk. Duration risk is the uncertainty of assets, real purchasing power over time. So for example, going back to this idea of real interest rates, when you had a, you know, one-year bill and real interest rates were negative, you had duration risk. you were losing money in real purchasing power terms. Even though the government would have paid you back for sure and there was a certainty about the government paying you back, there is an uncertainty about the real purchasing power of those nominal flows that come back. So this is again why a lot of people have the macro system elude them and why it's hard to understand interest rates because when you have these changes the entire point is that it sits in duration risk and then also sometimes credit risk. So duration risk is about the uncertainty of an asset's real purchasing power over time. So if I'm going to get back $100 at the end of the year, how much is inflation going to change between now and then? So that that $100 is now worth 95. Right? I'm still going to get the $100 and I'm going to feel like I made money, but if inflation ran at 200% or 100%.
Then I lost money in real terms, which again, go to any emerging market country, go to Turkey, go somewhere where the currency is just cooked, and you'll begin to understand, oh, I'm actually losing money in real purchasing power. The longer you wait for cash flow, the more inflation can erode them, which is why you can have, again, think about the curve for US treasuries.
There's no credit risk in the 5year versus the 10-year bond. But when you wait longer, you can have more inflation in the system, and there's more uncertainty about what can happen because the farther out you go, the more things that can take place. And so that's why a 30-year bond can have a higher interest rate or be more sensitive than a three-month bill.
Credit risk is the uncertainty of nominal repayments. This is key key distinction here. Will the borrower actually pay back what they owe in full and on time? Hinges on income, leverage, collateral, and economic conditions.
This kind of goes back to, you know, a lot of people will say like, "Oh, well, I just bought these high yield bonds and it says that they'll pay out 15 or 20% It says they will, but the question is, are they actually going to do that?
That's what they're saying, but are they going to fulfill on that promise? And that is the definition of credit risk.
And so, you have both of these factors, duration risk, and credit risk driving every asset liability relationship in the system, whether it's equities, growth stocks, Bitcoin, and alts, investment grade corporate, high yield, the 10-year, 2year, TA, whatever that might be. duration risk and credit risk drive both sides of assets. And so when we're thinking about this, you can see long-ear treasure uh excuse me, long-term treasury total returns in blue right here. And then you can also see the high yield treasury returns, excuse me, not treasury, um high yield bond returns, total return index. That's what I'm trying to say. total return index right here where it shows pure credit and pure duration and the idea is that these will outperform during different periods of time. So notice right here during COVID you actually have this losing money in red but then treasuries actually bid and then the opposite happens where you have you know during this period of time high yield is rallying pretty aggressively but then we have US treasuries basically flat because of inflation in the system. Then notice both go down during the inflation shock of 2022. Why? Because inflation risk is still pushing down high yield bonds because those are still have a duration risk component in them. And again, you can go I would encourage you to go through this chart and go through all of these charts afterward and you know beginning to break down and think about how these factors are working and and we'll you know continue to kind of dig into how these are are functioning. They'll be laid out on the substack as well.
So, uh, you know, back on the how your kind of capital flows in general, you I I'm trying to like kind of bring it back to a simple more understandable point and it it basically seems like it's just a constant web of like trying to determine credit quality between different assets and different parties.
Does that kind of make sense? Like if if uh this leads me into a different question, but like if if somebody's abil if somebody is being invested in less or whatever, there's like less liquidity and less quality of their credit. So they're going to be that is going to be uh is go nominally going to like go down in value while something else goes up.
>> Totally. So >> I don't know if I'm saying this in the right way.
>> No, I think it is. I think the question the question is how do we look at different players in the system as it relates to credit quality and then also let's say duration risk. So, for example, you have um basically really good example right now is actually, you know, people know and I've talked about Oracle for a while.
They're leveraged up with a ton of debt right now, right? And their stock is going all over the place because they're leverage all this AI capback stuff. They have more credit risk than Warren Buffett and Birkshshire Hathway, right?
So, you clearly objectively Oracle has more credit risk than Birkshshire Hathway. However, at the same time, if you have inflation accelerate, the person to benefit the most is probably Oracle, not Birkshshire Hathway because Birkshshire is holding primarily cash, whereas Oracle has a lot more debt out on it right now. So, if you have inflation rise, that can help, you know, in a sense put some, you know, downward uh real purchasing power pressure on it's going to be easier for them to pay their debt obligations.
The hope is that well are they going to need to roll over those debt obligations at higher interest rates and how is that going to lean against their income right now? In the same way that you know people take out uh a mortgage on a house, they intuitively know that if they locked in their rate at a low rate and then we had inflation rise and now they make more money that they they they like that. They're like, "Oh, I'm making more money now. That's great." But the idea behind that is that in real terms part of their life has been devalued and part of their life has been revalued higher. And so you basically need to look at you know what is the credit quality. Let's say you know let's say uh you know both of us are making a certain amount of money a year. You make more than me. Let's say you make 500k a year.
Let's say I make 300k a year. And then we both buy a house. you're going to have less credit risk than I am.
However, we're still operating in the same macro context of real purchasing power changes. So, is long as you know, if we both buy a house worth a million dollars, you have less credit risk than I do. But at the same time, if we have inflation begin to rise and we each bought a house for a million dollars, then that is going to help both of us because we just took out debt on a 30-year mortgage and now that is functionally being devalued in inflation terms, in real purchasing power terms, in real time. And so you're still, you know, less credit risk than I am, but we're both experiencing the benefit of that inflation. Now, if I don't have a house and you have a house and we have inflation take place, then I'm going to get hurt by inflation while inflation will benefit you.
So, there's all these different scenarios. This is just it's you know the idea of inflation and growth and real purchasing power and real changes and all this stuff is just like positions in a portfolio. I can be long or short crude. I can be long or short bonds. I can basically be long or short whatever that might be in that context and different scenarios can benefit me or hurt me.
>> Okay. Okay, so that leads me to the question of like say um I think it was Venezuela or like Turkey or whatever when these currencies go into like this kind of spiral yet the equity market rips to the upside. Can you just explain a little bit as to why that occurs? because I assume their uh their rates are going skyhigh, their equity market's going skyh high, and their currency is completely in freef fall. So why does a lot of the value transfer into >> Well, you could say their their stock market might be going up in nominal terms, but it's probably the same in real terms, >> right? So it's it's reversed on the other side, >> correct?
>> Likely. I mean, it it because it's a risk asset, it's probably making you money, right? But the question is, how do we adjust it for inflation, right?
How do we adjust it for changes in the currency? And I think that here's here's what people will do. People will say like, "Let me get long the stock market and short gold." Or they'll like put a ratio on when like that's not how you denominate something. That's like putting on a pair trade. What you need to say is like, "Well, how much has the you know, if if I'm not coming to you and denominating a a market in gold, right? I'm not coming to you and saying oh you now owe me this amount of gold right it's always about well how is your currency uh you know risen or fallen in a certain period of time and how does that adjust for whatever it is right so when we think about adjusting it you need to adjust it on a percentage change basis and real purchasing power changes connected to the currency as opposed to just saying like let me take whatever asset is and divide it by gold or silver or the Fed balance sheet or something like that because that's just not going to work. It It's just not It's not a fair comparison.
>> And that is there there's something with like the flows can't I mean I know obviously some of the flows are probably exiting the country and they're you know maybe selling into whatever the dollar or the yen or whatever to go buy other assets. But is there a lot of people in those other countries that they have to keep the money internal? So they have to pick like the stock market.
>> Yeah. I mean if you're if you are like let's say you're se you have a business in Turkey, right? You're just going to increase your prices every year. But if you have a business in Turkey, uh you still have to sell things in the Turkish lera, right? So if you're going to transact, you still need to transact in that local currency. Um, and to be fair, there's plenty of people, um, I've done it sometimes. I'm not the, um, I'm not as experienced as like a lot of other people I talk to that do it, but, you know, if you, if you buy the Turkish LRA, it might go down 5%, but the yield you might get is 7%. in in a in a in a month, let's say a month, right?
So you could actually make four or 5% in a month by just being long the currency.
Even though it goes down, you're getting paid in that interest rate with that same amount. And because you're getting paid more than it's going down, you're offsetting that. And all you need to do is leverage that. So they're they're this is the whole idea of a carry trade, right? Which is why things are not as simple as people kind of look at on the surface. They see the Turkish lera just collapsing. And you know, I know many traders that are like, "Oh, this is amazing. I'm going to buy it because I'm going to make so much more in the interest rate than the currency goes down." And again, that's on net. That helps cause the currency to drop less than it could, right? And the all these supply and demand forces all come into to to balance. But I mean the largest the largest rises and falls and when when nations rise or fall or there's collapses in economies, it's always connected to currency, the currency and interest rates every single time like without question. And it's the least understood aspect of macro and markets because it's all about nominal and real purchasing power changes. And no one talks about real purchasing power because it's just it's very tough to for people to intuitively get. So people in the news media don't talk about it. I mean again, why aren't people talking about real interest rates and you losing money in real terms? It's not as it's not as cool as saying prices are going up.
>> All right. Thanks. That explains it a bit better.
>> Totally. Um on the macro liquidity side, all of this comes down to well, what is macro liquidity?
And again this is primarily in financial markets where we have you know credit it really depends on on how we're delineating some things but the underlying principle is that macro liquidity is based on the price of money and the quantity of money in the system.
So just think about the price of money as interest rates especially real interest rates. Um but knowing nominal and real interest rates help you a lot.
And then the quantity of money which is all about I mean easy example is Fed balance sheet all these changes with reserves or bills or private sector liquidity or things like that. And so the idea is that you have the price of money always changing and then you have the quantity of money always changing as well. Think about balance sheets, bill issuance, government spending, private uh sector liquidity coming into the market um from uh incomes and 401k flows and things like that. And then you have the price of money which is interest rates short and long-term on a nominal and real basis. If you take both of those, the net effect is net macro liquidity. That's how you want to think about that. Now people are saying okay well can you just give me all the inputs for how that works and I'll just create a liquidity index and do that one most of the liquidity indices out there that kind of pull these together are in many ways discretionary in the sense that some factors or all the factors net out at the end of the day. But this is really where people get their secret sauce when they can actually map how these are functioning not only in liquidity expanding or contracting but also the destination because you can have liquidity expand a bunch but then you say like oh but it's not flowing into Bitcoin and that's because liquidity when it expands or contracts that's just it expanding or contracting on a net basis where it flows and the destination of it is a kind of totally different thing on top of that which is kind of something that people don't talk about as Well, they're only talking about, oh, well, it increased a little bit, so now markets have to go up and it could fundamentally change. It could it could move across another another border, right? You could have liquidity in the United States increase and all the US investors take all the money and put it into Japan or another country, right? And so that's where this element of destinations is is really important as well. the idea about interest rates, rates and FX, these are two sides to the same coin. So if you're saying, okay, I want to pull this and connect it to markets. Rates and FX are two sides of the same coin in the asymmetrical lynch pin that markets rest on. So you know, currency markets and rate markets are much larger, deeper, faster than equities or credit or anything like that. they repric macro information really aggressively the fastest and that's where so much leverage and size exists and so when we think about rates and FX these are all the inputs into and they merge and synthesize into all the changes that take place in the equity side and everything works downstream from that.
So when you think about things you want to start with, well, what's the fundamental point that everything starts on and its rates and FX and this is why you have had things like the currency rally so much during the hiking cycle and then the derivatives of it move in lock step with the currency. So you can see here in blue two-year interest rates and then in this green the DXY and you can see it makes sense that you know they're moving in lock step like this.
This actually most recent thing we covered yesterday about how you know my view is the dollar is going to move a lot lower and part of that is connected to what we're seeing on the forward curve. We need to see a little bit of inflection before begin things begin to shift a bit more.
Once you begin to have all of that, then the yield curve and I've I've shared this uh you know there's a yield curve model that you can download right here on the website. All the educational primers you can go down scroll down right here. All the models are linked right here and you can go through all these and then you can go to the yield curve model from trading view. Just click on this. You can open this link and it'll show you the yield curve regimes right here on the bottom panel.
This is basically the thing I watch every single day. It's if you want to understand macro liquidity, you need to understand that that chart. And so go you can go there. You can go through the interest rate primer. Everything's there. You can even have Claude code set up a thing for you in Trading View that always tells you what's happening and why it's happening. But the entire idea is that the yield curve is one of the main things that shows the net effect of liquidity in the system. So when you have a certain yield curve regime and then the currency and equities are doing a certain thing that tells you where we are and that's why if we have this cross asset change that's why I have these regimes okay S&P up rates up DXY up that's the regime that we're in right now how does that connect to the yield curve and then how does that work across you know the UK and then also the Euro zone and then after you begin to build that then you can begin to say oh Now, I kind of get why the currency is moving in the way that it is and how it connects to oil and why, you know, some people might be short European equities right now for a little bit because they see oil kind of rallying, but then that you could have that squeeze there that begins to unwind and, you know, that's that's why one of the reasons why we're seeing equities the way that they are right now. So, when you pull those pieces together, you can begin to see that the yield curve is incredibly important. It connects with the short end and the yield curve is a reflection of duration risk in the system and it's going to continue to be that reflection because it is about the price of money because the yield curve fundamentally is an input into liquidity. And so capital is always rotating back out the risk curve or into the risk curve. So basically you always have your cash and tea bills as the safest thing but you have to remember these could be losing money in real terms. So the risk curve is all about real and nominal changes. So for example going back to this chart about real interest rates when real interest rates are negative and you start losing money when you hold cash on a real purchasing power basis then what people do is they say okay if I'm losing money in real terms I need to go to high yield or I need to go to investment grade bonds or I need to go to equities and you can see that even though there is not a fundamental like losing of money on a nominal basis when real interest rates turn negative the system itself. Um there's a lot of mechanisms for this, but what I'd say is that it's fundamentally mechanical and systematic. So when real interest rates fall, people are saying, "Oh, I'll just take the loss." It doesn't happen with on a broad basis because what people will do, especially large players, is they'll come into the market and they're able to basically borrow money at and make money by borrowing money. So basically, if you borrow money and real interest rates are negative and you're benefiting from that, you're basically getting paid to take out debt. It's like it's like having a funding rate on a perpetual that's positive and you get to be long Bitcoin and the funding rate's positive. That's basically the idea. And when you have real interest rates turn negative, sure you might not see money go out of your account, but in real terms, you're losing money and people systematically move out the risk curve as a result. And so that's why you have things like small caps rally when real interest rates turn negative and it's why you have Bitcoin have the greatest rallies when interest rates turn negative. And so that's the entire question that I am has have been going over in this thread right here. And I'd encourage everyone go through this thread because my entire thesis right now is that this credit cycle meltup is going to get a lot more intense if and when real interest rates turn negative.
And Kevin Worsh is going to be a key input into that. And you know, I don't know if we're going to rally as much as we did in the nick in the 70s because it's a little bit different because during that time you had commercial banks actually forced to issue money into the economy. However, with the amount of retooling that we're seeing in the economy with AI, it's functionally the same as issuing credit. Because if you are creating things that are just much cheaper and faster at the same time, you're fundamentally injecting money into the system because everything is getting bought and sold that much faster, which takes money and throws it through the system faster. And as a net result, earnings are made faster and as a result, equities rip higher. And so that's why we have the mechanism that we have right now. And that's why I laid it out all in this thread. And you should go through this entire thread. It's pinned on the Twitter profile right now.
Everything is laid out here. Uh again, I'm laying out all of this on the website every single day. All of the models to map all of this are right here. So if you don't have a Bloomberg and you're saying, "Well, I have AI, but I don't have a Bloomberg." just go through this all of these models, connect your clog code to Trading View to pull data. Um, if you don't have a Bloomberg, just buy Trading View. If you can't afford Trading View, you need to go get a job. But at the end of the day, you know, if you, it's just how it is, guys. Uh, but you know, you want to go through and just connect those moving parts. You can pull data from Trading View with cloud code. Now, um, people will say it's against Trading View's like policy or whatever. It is what it is. People are doing it. I'm not going to confirm or deny that I'm doing it, but you know, you can go through and just connect all these things. And then I'm, you know, right here, this CFR playbook, you can pull, there's code in here that you can just feed into cloud code. So if you just download this, this is an entire playbook of like the actual code from the dashboard that I run and an entire breakdown of like the architecture you need to run. And then you can have the entire dashboard that I run every single day. And the code's right here. Literally, if you be this PDF into cloud code, it'll just take this code and make it for you. I mean, and this is free. This is all free on the website that all the stuff that I've like built. So, you know, this this is a perfect example of you could in the past you'd be spending all day every day just trying to figure out how to build a basic Excel model. Now, you can just go and go to the Capital Flows website and download this, feed it into Cloud Code, and you have all the code yourself. I I mean, if if this is I I don't what else do you guys need, you know, like everything is everything is here for you. So the coming back to this this slide the credit cycle that we're talking about right now is that there's an asset liability mismatch on the upside. So that means that there's a meltup occurring because there's more money in the system than there is delinquencies or any other kind of basically other breakdown that would cause selling pressure. the when when people share these charts about, you know, debt going to all-time highs or anything like that. Crisises fundamentally occur when an asset liability mismatch occurs and interest rates and FX shock the system and then repric. That's how every crisis occurs.
So, the way you want to understand crisises is not just studying the past.
that's great, but understanding the mechanics of how different types of cycles can play out because just studying 2008 is not going to help you with the next crisis. Because at the end of the day, most uh financial history books, uh all they talk about is well, everything was getting so euphoric and people were taking out debt and all this stuff, right? and then they'll post clips of that online as if we're always in that period of time, which is not really the case. You want to look for asset liability mismatches. And so, you know, the textbook people will say like, oh, like the credit cycle is based on expansion, euphoria, contraction, panic, rec, you know, this cycle you can you can say. In reality, it's all about path dependency. So, how does a rate hike shock the system? And is the system normalized to that at a higher level? I mean just think about an easy example is think about how interest rates are higher now that we or think about how everyone thought that when you raise interest rates the mortgage market's going to collapse or crack and then in 2022 we raised interest rates and delinquencies for houses didn't go up.
That tells you that the system is not at a mismatch or else it would have collapsed or it would have had delinquencies rise and we haven't had delinquencies rise almost at all.
So, you know, when we're when we're looking out at this path dependency reality here, you know, if you have this asset liability match right now and we're kind of in this regime and it's moving forward, but then you have policy between the central banks in the world start to adjust.
there's that's going to influence the credit quality and the duration and the risks of all of the different assets out there. And if you had a situation where the current path let's say of like the stock market or whatever continues on the same path kind of in in this assumption maybe in a euphoric phase or whatever a meltup and this assumption that the asset and debt liabilities are this staying the same but the underlying like policy changes, geopolitical risk, um credit quality is maybe starting to turn over. Those are all of the like compiling signs that you would maybe start to be like, well, we might be heading into a shift here and the market is not incorporating that enough. Is that kind of how you start to get to like >> 100%. You basically what you do is you stack these different elements of the balance sheet, the flow of capital, and potential mismatches. You use these shocks in the system as basically guideposts that tell you where you are in how much of a mismatch exists. And then you stack on top of that what is the market pricing relative to how things are likely to change. And then the way that you execute is when you have positioning extremes in V cross-sectional momentum or relative momentum between things and cross asset ball. So you execute this is executed extremes and meme in between. That is that's how macro works, right? The way that you do that is by stacking these layers and you stack these layers by understanding what are the different elements in the underlying economy in the balance sheets in the flows between them on a nominal and real purchasing power basis and how do all those moving parts synthesize and weight together in this period of time that we're in. And here's the thing, I'm not going to I'm not going to sugarcoat this. This is like so difficult. This is not something where you're just like, "Oh, yeah. Let me come in and let me look at CPI data.
Okay, we're we're right here." You know, like I know where we're at now. You know, this is something that literally investment banks spend hundreds of millions of dollars a year just being like, "Okay, let's have different analysts in different sections of the market and covering this and covering that and they spend so much money just trying to get an edge, a small edge here, right?" And so if you're a person who is saying like, "Oh, you know, this sounds some like something I can just kind of, you know, put a framework together a little bit, watch a couple YouTube videos and, you know, come into the market, take some big swings and make generational wealth." It's just a little naive, right? Because the and and then the other side of things is this is this this great it's great if you go to um I love Peter Teal's ideas on this and then some other things is you know a lot of people will just say like this is a little bit too complex for me. I just like things that are simple and just keep it simple. That's fine but you have to recognize that the more complexity you're able to synthesize the more you're going to get paid. And people don't like to hear that because they like to retreat to this idea of well simplicity is the best option and it's just not really the case. If you look at any monopoly the whole point is that they're able to synthesize complexity and so you know one of the things that Peter Teal and then also I think Alex Karp and obviously they're connected right um in Palunteer and everything that Palunteer does and all these other guys who have created monopolies.
The entire idea is that they're solving very complex problems. So simple solutions work and you can make money based on simple things that you just keep running the process over and over.
But you shouldn't expect insane returns from that. And I think that's one of the key things. Here's the thing. you can like if you understand some basics of like how all this works like I talk with people that are wealthy people and they're just like you know I I don't know how all this stuff works I just know that when market corrections happen I have cash on the sidelines I deploy it and you know I basically over the next you know five years I just you know raise a little bit of cash here and there and I try not to be too aggressive and then once dislocations occur I add more and they basically use the buffet approach Right? Which is great. Like you are probably going to make money over time doing that and you're probably going to outperform the market a little bit. But if you have an expectation and and this can this doesn't even have to be about trading itself. It is primarily about trading because that is the primary mechanism to monetize it.
But even if you harness 5% of the complexity that exists and differentiate yourself by 10 or 20% from the other people in your domain, whether that is in an investment bank, a hedge fund, financial advisor, financial services, or you are in some type of industry in real estate or services business where you're able to adapt faster than other businesses around you. those small edges and differentiating factors are the the things that allow you to make more money than other people. And so I just think that is such a critical thing to to recognize that all this is very hard.
I spend all my time doing all of this.
Uh I spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year just getting the data and compute and everything necessary just to have a seat at the table, right?
like just to just to show up every day and have access to the data and compute and resources like it's just expensive to be able to do all that. So that's why we're doing these live streams every single day so that you can benefit from one the framework side of how things work and two the synthesis of the mechanics and how it's actually being implemented in real time for markets. And again, this goes back to the entire thread I just shared, which is here is a net result of all the ideas that I'm sharing. And then you can go on to the website and go to all the models that I've shared here. And then I'm going to continue to for anyone who is on the the website, uh you'll continue to get these PDFs that I share which have all the actual code. So, if you want to be able to get all the upside with a lot less work, then you just become a subscriber on the website and you get all these things, right? Like my entire goal is to, you know, I remember, you know, when I first started, I didn't have all these materials and resources and I just thought, man, it'd be so nice if I had everything in one place and then all I had to do is just work hard and go through all of it. But then you know at the time there wasn't as many resources and so you know it was just going through things little by little and aggregating those myself and you know now so much has changed. So there's all these new books and websites and courses and every there's so many resources now and now it's about information overload. So everything is laid out there. um continue to lay it out and the the entire point is that you get all of that and you know all the slide decks and everything else um when you're on the website and then once you learn all of that you got to learn to execute which is a whole another a whole another realm actually putting the risk on the table understanding how you're going to best do that where you're going to best do that >> what portion of your are you going to use? Are you working? Are you trying to trade? Like, it's there's there's so many sides to this coin, which makes it the toughest arena to play in in the world. But hey, you keep showing up, trying every day, working on your execution, putting in the reps, add in a little bit of luck, you never know. You never know.
>> Yeah. I think uh I think the thing I' I've thought about a lot is like you're probably going to spend a lot of time just working really hard just to get a seat at the table and then once you get a seat at the table then you get the opportunity to take swings and then that's when you actually get to have the opportunity to perform but until then you're just working to get a seat at the table and that's why I think the the the attrition rate in this industry is not as much about the difficulty of the industry but about the amount of people that come into it with unrealistic expectations.
I think that's the bigger thing about the attrition rate because if people understood the challenge and sacrifice and you know the mental execution everything but they understood that going in and respected it a little bit more and saw that it was a bit daunting a lot less people would try and you know the people that did understand it they say okay you know and I think I think there's always an element where you don't really even know how hard it is until you start going through it and you're like oh wow this a lot harder than I thought it was initially. I thought that it would even get easier over time. It's only gotten harder over time because other people are getting better, right? And so those are all, you know, things to consider. And it's why it's never a quick, you know, get-richqu scheme or anything like that.
It's about building a base of knowledge over time that can serve you to consistently monetize over the rest of your career.
>> Yeah. And like I mean we had uh before I got to my firm, every every trainee class that would come in would be, you know, these Duke, MIT, Harvard um finance bros, right? Uh, and they'd come in and they'd be like, "Well, I went to these really difficult classes. I excelled. I worked hard. I got amazing grades. I got this opportunity." Then they'd come in and a year later they'd be gone, >> you know, because it just had nothing to do with the actual execution of trading.
And there's nothing wrong with like the analyst track, right? because you could be a top tier analyst but just not have the ability >> to to um convert >> the knowledge and ideas that you have into trade execution. It's a whole another ball game and that it that can be a great path. You could get paid a lot of money for that. And then there's other people like myself who excel at the execution side and less at the analyst side. So that's why a lot of these firms have combinations, right? A guy who's the actual head trader or executor with analysts working under them and them them trying to synthesize together how to best attack something.
Um, so there's a lot of ways you could you could play ball in this industry or get a seat at the table just might not not look exactly like what you might imagine.
>> Yeah, I love this. I I was trading options in class whenever they brought a speaker in. Too much theory, not enough practical utility.
>> I think that's awesome. Uh what a what a blast. Um James, as we kind of pulled together, we've gone over so many different thoughts. I want to pull together a couple of them and uh kind of put a bow on it. But we've covered a lot of stuff over the last several days in all the kind of things that we've broken down for people.
The main idea that I would kind of push people to to say is that when you get the macro environment correct, then that allows you to begin to stack specific edges on top of that and be aligned in the environment you're in so you don't just get sidelined.
And the environment that we're in right now is one where you can go, you know, right here and go through everything that laid out.
Sorry, right here. And go through this entire, you know, breakdown. And, you know, it's it's just everything's laid out. Go through all the views right here. And you can show up every single day to these sessions that we're doing.
um they're going to be the same, you know, 8:30 a.m. Mountain Standard Time every single day. And the entire slide deck that we went over right here, which breaks down how to think about liquidity, why it matters, what are the different mechanisms for it, why exactly people make so many mistakes in understanding liquidity and real purchasing power. All of those are are laid out right here, and it'll be sent out every single day after we're done here. and you'll be able to have all the breakdowns and every single thing for you. And once you merge that bigger picture ideas with the execution that, you know, James talks a lot about, he just published a video that I'll link as well. Um, once you pull those things together, that's when you can begin to actually get actual feedback and say, "Here's how I can improve or here's how I need to adapt." And I think that's where you actually begin to have fun and you you feel like your potential is being utilized. So those are those are really the main ideas. Uh James, what were kind of the final thoughts you pull together for people to kind of help them think about and challenge them to think about?
>> I think it's just important to go back over this this last few weeks. We talked about this yesterday, but go back over these last few weeks and really look at yourself and how you acted, what positions you put on, what you didn't, where were your mistakes, where did you make great decisions, whatever. And one thing that I look forward to like with with all this stuff is like, don't you see where we're heading? Like we're heading into something like spectacular, whether that's up or down. And by showing up every day here, you're going to be best prepared on how to navigate through like what could be some euphoric meltup and then the subsequent um whatever you want to call it, cooling off. And if you're like, it's all fun in games to win money going up, right?
Picking the winners. Oh, you got the next robotics or Frontier stock and you're up 30% on the week and blah blah blah. But like in the end, what's that going to matter if you're not preparing to sidestep what could be a catastrophic downfall on the back end of that, right?
Because like how are you going to hold on to that through the next few years, multiply it and continue to outperform the markets here? So, I really look forward to like where this all ends. And we're not claiming to understand exactly where it is, but we're I'm I'm claiming that I think we're going to be better prepared than most people to see the signs and synthesize this and all do it together at the same time. And then you can figure out individually how that's going to impact your, you know, critical positions. And like look like there you were here if you're around in 2020 or 2022 like these things these times come and I want to be the one who takes advantage of it. Um not sure exactly how but I'm always kind of coming up with different scenarios. I could do this. I could do that. How could I sidestep things? How could I take advantage and actually be a short seller and participate buying back on the long side? How do I play breakouts? How do I adjust my strategy now for somebody who's not a great momentum trader to take advantage as we push higher? All these are things that um excite me and I think everybody else should be just as excited.
>> Yeah. Let me let me add uh a story that really kind of has stuck with me over the years is I remember uh meeting with a friend. I I just met him and uh you know we're good friends now but I just met him and we were talking about you know he works in markets as well manages a lot of money and he's he's an older school guy right he's not like you know he's he's kind of the guy that's just been around for a while knows how things work really good at trading also really good at picking stuff um really good at you know sidstepping these kind of areas he's just been in markets for so long and you know it's it was kind of funny we were kind kind of in this group where everyone's talking about these different changes and when's the next, you know, meltup and when's the next recession, all these things and um I remember talking to him one-on-one afterward and being like, "So, you know, how do you think about when that actually happens and you know, this this and that?" And I was I was like trying to understand like what what are the signals that he thinks about and things like that. And he and he just kind of said confidently without like worrying, he's just like, "You'll know what to do exactly when it happens."
And I was just like, he's like, you you'll know it when you see it and you'll know exactly what to do. And it's just like a guy that, you know, with with who he is, it's just a guy who just trusts in himself so much because he's constantly taking in information. He's been through so many of these. He knows like how to operate. And everyone's like, "Oh, what about this indicator?
What about this moving average? What about this?" You know, and he's just like he's like he's like, "Don't worry, you'll know it when you see it." And I was like, "Well, maybe you will." But, you know, it it just is one of those things where it it's it's someone who's just so confident in knowing how to build a base of knowledge over time and then being through so many reps and then they just like look forward and they're like, "Yeah, I'll like I kind of I trust myself to be the guy who makes the the kind of buzzer beater shot and I'm going to do that."
>> Yeah. that if you trust yourself like him, it's easier to stay kind of long, right? Because if you're not confident in yourself, you're just constantly going to be getting like scared and shaken out of what could be life-changing moves to the upside because you're always you're not truly deep down in the mindset that I'll see that when it's coming. I'll I'll know like if you don't. So, I I think that's awesome. Um, yeah. Again, sounds easy, bro. But like, uh, yeah, I think that's those are the guys who are going to just they're going to be the ones that somehow you'll call them lucky or whatever, but uh there is something to that for sure.
>> Absolutely.
>> All right. Well, everyone, thank you for joining today. We'll be here tomorrow, 8:30 a.m. Mountain Standard Time, and breaking down more. Everything that we covered in this session be laid out on the website afterward. All these slide deck, charts, everything else. You can get all the research there as well. And then the uh pinned tweet is all the breakdown of the credit cycle. You can find all that. And then if you guys are able to retweet that, reshare that, always appreciate it. And then anything you guys are going over, thinking about, tag me, tag James, everything that we're doing. Um, appreciate all you guys showing up and we will catch you guys tomorrow morning.
>> See you later.
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