Cardano (ADA) - Never Give Up (2026 / 2027 Price Prediction)

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates. So, in this video I want to start with the night chart. The reason for that is because we went up quite a lot, I believe yesterday or like 2 days ago, and we had this crazy wick to the upside. I even posted about this on the Discord server and I told you that the wave count had to be adjusted. So, let me explain what's going on right now. I believe that this move to the downside was a 1 2 3 4 5 for a much bigger first wave. This ABC was a much bigger second wave move up, and currently we are still in the third wave to the downside. Uh just like with the ADA chart, by the way, I believe ADA is also in a much bigger third wave of the bear market, and we know that night is probably going to follow exactly what ADA is doing, which means that even if we get another low, and even if we end up getting to the target for the much bigger third wave right there, then the price might still get a move to the upside after that to complete a much bigger fourth wave. So, let's talk about what we have right now, you know, of this much bigger third wave. So far we seem to have some kind of 1 2 3, and this move to the upside was an ABC for the much bigger fourth wave. We got rejected exactly by the 50% resistance level, which was the 50% resistance level of this entire move to the downside of the third wave. And yeah, if we are indeed in a much bigger fourth wave to the downside, a target for that would be between 2.1 cents and 1.4 cents. This target was also adjusted. I took the 1.618 of the A wave. The 1.618 of the A wave down right there is pretty much at 2.1 cents.

[00:01:40]But a move like that will only happen if the price decides to break below this support zone, which is between 3.6 cents, which we pretty much already broke below, and 3.3 cents. So, let's see if we manage to stay above this, and if we do, then I could maybe say that this was just some kind of much bigger AB, and we are trying to start a much bigger C wave of the fourth wave. The target for that is at 5 cents, which is also where the bull market support band is, but I would not get my hopes too high for that. I mean, here on the ADA chart, we pretty much invalidated a very important one two setup, which would have been a much bigger one two of the C wave to the upside of this AB, and we also pretty much almost invalidated the entire AB setup as well. The next support zone I have for you is between 19.6 cents and 15.1 cents. Although I did say many, many times that we might even get to 13 cents, you should probably already know the story by this point. Quickly going to the Bitcoin chart, we are still waiting for the price to drop to around $40,000 in the next couple of months. Maybe it's not going to happen right now. I mean, the S&P 500 chart keeps going to up cycle highs every single day, but just like in 2018, this is probably going to lead to a much bigger drop later in the year.

[00:02:49]Also, understand that the 4-hour RSI on the S&P 500 chart has some bearish divergence. The price keeps forming cycle highs, but the RSI keeps forming lower highs, which is not good. I'm not sure if you can remember, but this is exactly what it did back in this area on the Bitcoin chart. The price kept going higher, and once we got to the bull market support band and the 21-day moving average, we got rejected. And I believe the reason why we got rejected is because the RSI kept forming lower highs every single time. So, yeah, this was bearish divergence, and we had the exact same setup back in this area right here. The price went a bit higher a couple of, you know, days later after this high, but the RSI went lower, which was very, very bad. So, we'll see what happens, but my next target is still at around $37,000 for the much bigger C wave. Also, understand we have a support zone on the Bitcoin chart between $73,300 and $71,200.

[00:03:43]In case Bitcoin decides to stay above the support zone, I could always count this as some kind of much bigger one two, and then the price maybe is going to try starting breaking to above the previous all-time highs. That is not my main scenario, to be honest. We are still below the 200-day moving average.

[00:03:59]In every single bear market so far, Bitcoin stayed below the 200-day moving average, and so far we did the exact same, which is telling me that yeah, this is probably just a normal bear market, and it's probably going to end by the end of October, but you probably already know the story by this point.

[00:04:13]And yeah, here on the daily chart, let's go back to ADA, we are still below the moving average on the RSI, and we are even below the much bigger 50% support level of the entire one-two setup from that low to that high of 2021. The reason why this is a very important support level is because it was tested many times in the past. For example, the first time it was back here in December of 2022, the second time was right here in let's say June of 2023, then it was tested again in September of 2023, and right now it was pretty much tested many times during the sideways price action.

[00:04:44]We even bounced off of it in the much bigger, well, not the much bigger third wave because the third wave is still not in, but in this week right here, we bounced off of it, and then we got some kind of move to the market's support band. So, you get the idea, this support zone is very important, and by the looks of it, we are not able to stay above it, which in, you know, in the past pretty much resulted in the price dropping to the next support zone. That's exactly what happened back there, but I'm not going to repeat that.

[00:05:10]Now, on Bitcoin on the daily, it's still the exact same story. We got rejected by the moving average on the RSI. So, let's quickly go back to the weekly, I guess, and here on the weekly, unfortunately, we broke below the very important trend line on the RSI, which was used as a support many times in the last couple of months and even years. I mean, for example, back in the previous bull market, it was used as a support about four times, and each time we bounced off of it, that's when the price kept forming cycle highs. So, yeah, if we do not manage to stay above it, and if we close below it in about 2 days and 14 hours, that is going to lead to a much bigger drop, in my opinion. That's more or less pretty much exactly what happened back here. Although here, we did not have a trend line, we only had the moving average on the RSI, and once we broke below that, the price went from, let's say, around $43,000 to around $18,000 in a couple of months.

[00:05:58]And this bottom was in June. So, could we get some kind of bottom in June?

[00:06:02]Well, we could, but only if the price decides to start dropping right now.

[00:06:06]But, also understand that, for example, in the last drop, it took Bitcoin a couple of weeks to actually bottom. Let me actually show you how long it took just so you could get an idea of how long it can take right now. From that high to the low, it took Bitcoin 42 days to bottom. And from the all-time highs to the first low of the bear market, it took Bitcoin also 42 days to bottom. So, let's say we, you know, bottom about 42 days after this test of the 20-day moving average.

[00:06:33]That would put us on June 15th, 2026. Is that going to happen so fast? I have no idea. That's like in 2 weeks, so maybe we're not going to get a move like that.

[00:06:42]Maybe we're going to have to, you know, wait for a bit longer for that to happen just because the S&P 500 chart is going up right now. But, yeah, going to the ADA chart on the weekly, it's the exact same story. We broke below the important trend line on the RSI, which was used as a support about seven times in the past.

[00:06:58]For example, you have to understand it was also used as a support back in this area. And that's relevant during that time, the price also was at a similar price. And back then, after we bounced off that level, we were able to get a move to the moving average on the RSI, and even a wick to the bottom of the support band. And it even happened back in this area again. We tested that trend line two times, and that's what gave us a much bigger move later on. It even happened back, I believe, in let's say, 2024 in July. We tested trend line, which later gave us a move from 30 cents to about $1.30.

[00:07:30]But, right now, if we close below it, then I think this is just going to look exactly like what it did back in this area.

[00:07:36]The previous bear market was the only time when ADA broke below the very important trend line on the RSI. So, it broke below it about two times, and then the second time it broke below it, that was the bear market low, or at least almost close to the bear market low.

[00:07:49]This was actually the much bigger third wave to the downside. We then got a move to the bear market support band and even above it, which was the fourth wave. And then later in the year, we still got a much bigger fifth wave, which again bounced exactly at the trend line on the RSI. So, let's say we get another low right now. Let's say we get below these RSI levels just so we could copy what we did back there, because this low on the RSI was much lower than this one. Once we get a new low on the RSI, I think the price is going to get a move to the bear market support band, which is going to be a fourth wave move up. And what happens after that is still unclear.

[00:08:20]Maybe the support is going to be respected this time, and maybe this is going to turn into a much bigger one two instead of instead of a much bigger fourth of the upside. But in case that does not happen, and in case we just decide to break below support, the next move after that could be a much bigger fifth wave, and that's going to be way below 13 cents.

[00:08:39]We might use the trend line as support, bounce off of it, form a lower low on the price chart, but a higher low on the RSI. And then after that, we can finally get a move to the upside, which might even be above $1.30, and in the best case scenario, maybe above the previous all-time highs just because, I mean, in the next bull market we're going to be in QE the entire time, and not in QT.

[00:09:00]And the last time we were in QE, ADA went from like 2 cents to about $1.30.

[00:09:05]This is why I'm not really concerned with the market situation, even if we end up breaking below 13 cents, and even if we got like 5 cents, we have seen in the past that ADA was able to recover after a move like that. Obviously, I do not believe we're going to get to like 5 cents, but even in that case, let's say that happens. Here during the first cycle, the price dropped from $1.30 to about 2 cents, and it still went to new all-time highs after that. And what's interesting about this cycle is that we pretty much stopped exactly where we stopped back in 2017. So, even in a case like that, I do see the price still recovering, especially because we're going to be in QE the entire time.

[00:09:40]So, I would definitely not forget that, and I would definitely not ignore the fact that a move like this is also going to put us in the oversold territory on the monthly RSI for the first time ever, which is going to be extremely bullish.

[00:09:52]So, yeah, also I'm expecting the same thing to happen with Bitcoin, but I believe I talked about this yesterday.

[00:09:59]That's pretty much it for this video. I hope you enjoyed. If you did, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want to access to all of our charts, and if you want to access to our daily Discord updates. Like, subscribe, and I'll see you on the next one.