Hodges provides a sharp reminder that while technology changes the tools of war, the psychological erosion of leadership remains the most effective way to collapse an army. His analysis skillfully bridges the gap between high-tech precision and the timeless human element of conflict.
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Putin’s generals are ‘looking over their shoulders' as the GUR ramp up attacks | Lt Gen Ben HodgesHinzugefügt:
It also has a an arm much like the Mossad that can um hunt down Russian generals and anybody else that was responsible for war crimes, attacks on civilians, kidnap children, all these kinds of things. And so, um, I think the GUR is going to make life miserable for, uh, these Russian officers who who will spend the rest of their life checking under their car and looking over their shoulder because GUR is out there. Hello and welcome to Front Line with me, Philip Ingram. Now, today is day 1,511 of Vladimir Putin's 10-day special military operation um into Ukraine or his full-scale invasion. And we're very fortunate to be talking to an old friend of the show, General Ben Hodges. Now, General Ben an infantry officer. I'm going to talk infantry tactics in a minute, a military planner and former commanding general of the US Army Europe and co-authored future war and the defense of Europe. And you provide commentary frequently on everything that's going on around the world. Uh Ben, welcome back to Front Line.
>> Bill, thank you very much for the privilege.
>> Now, the infantry bit, the thing that struck me most, let's get into sort of low-level tactics. Your job as an infanteer was to take and hold ground.
President Zalinski came out last night and explained how they're now using unmanned ground vehicles to take and hold ground. Does that mean you're unemployed?
>> Well, I would say it it means that there's less chance of uh infantry soldiers being killed or maimed. Um, if if we can figure out how to uh achieve that infantry task with unmanned systems, I I'd like I was impressed.
>> Is it Are we getting to a point where, you know, we're seeing science fiction coming to become science fact on the battlefield? And you know, we're we're on a path now to potentially having semi-autonomous or autonomous um equipments in the air on the land, and we're seeing it operating at sea, fighting our wars for us. And you know, people are going to be one step back or two steps back.
>> Well, I'm going to say something that you already know, and probably most of your listeners do. Um the side that wins is usually the one that's able to integrate, adapt to and integrate new technologies. Um of course you remember there was a time when infantry was literally just infantry and then you start introducing longrange weapons and then tanks and then air and all these technologies, but you always still needed some way to control uh land and populations and critical infrastructure. Um, so if you can do that with robotics that are able to destroy the enemy or run them off u to enable follow on actual ground forces to then show up and secure it or work with the population that's there because that's one thing that I think I don't know that we're at the point where robotics can do the interface with civilians in a village that you just entered for example. Um, but I' I'm all for it. If you can if you can get um superior firepower there uh without um losing a bunch of your soldiers, I'm I'm for it. And I I imagine all of our armies will uh be looking to to learn from what the Ukrainians have done here.
But but then again to square the circle, you know, those that are listening, you know, from the PlayStation or whatever other latest game consoles out there generation, you warfare isn't all about just what you can do with electronics and remotely and control. There's still a guttural element of it. You know, I remember during the Faulland's war, um which was was a while ago, but there was still the fix bayonets and charge um as as infantry attacks were going in. We had exactly the same with the British army in Iraq as well. There were at one point, you know, the the infantry troops ran out of ammunition and had to fix bayets and charge the um uh the the the positions of those that were trying to attack them. And I'm sure exactly the same thing has happened in the United States. warfare is still a very human onhuman activity and no matter how much technology we get, there's still that horrific gutal element where, you know, man has to fight man or woman has to fight woman or um mixing mixing it up on on the modern battlefield. Well, I think um uh you and I were educated in our profession about the nature of war, which is unchanging, the violence, the uncertainty, um but the character of war, which is changing because of primarily technologies. So, you're right. I mean, there there is always going to be violence there. But if you can if you can do this and achieve your mission without um losing a bunch of your soldiers, I I think every commander is going to want to to be able to do that.
>> Yeah. And one of the things that Ukraine needed more than anything was uh is and still is is money and financing. And one of the big um uh roadblocks to that with the potential EU90 billion euro loan that was going to Ukraine was Victor Orban um of Hungary. But this weekend he lost the election in a landslide uh by Peter Maguier. Um and it looks as if Maguar is happy to unlock the 90 billion euro loan for Keev. you know how vital do you think this sudden injection of European funding is to Ukrainian logistics especially with you what we're seeing with the US diverted elsewhere and you know was the US actually providing any real money or was it getting the EU to pay for everything that came from the US >> you know um I first of all what great news to to see uh Mr. Maguar winning his party winning this election and so we're looking hopefully in a very short time that he becomes prime minister and and and you have a new government in place and that should what you're talking about unlocking the uh or or removing the veto against EU funds for Ukraine should happen pretty soon. uh that will be very timely and important for Ukraine because I think they are only a couple of months away from literally running out of money. So this this is none too soon. Um I think that the um psychological aspect of this also will be important that you won't have this Russianfueled Russian influenced voice sitting at the table in Brussels either at the EU or at NATO uh causing problems. Now I hope that Fitzo doesn't Mr. Fitzo doesn't feel that he has to carry the torch for the uh for the Russians. U I don't know that he will be as um I hope he won't be as uh much of a hindrance as was Orbine >> fe from the Czech Republic. He he doesn't seem to have been as quite as extreme. But how significant do you think this is for Vladimir Putin to have lost yet another um Putin supporter? You know, he's he's lost Maduro in Venezuela. He's he's lost um his influence into Syria. He's he's lost Iran now effectively um and now lost his his link in the European Union. You will he be feeling more isolated?
>> Um this this is an interesting point. So u with Orban out of the way um and and of course the Russians put a lot of effort there. uh in Slovakia with Fitzo, they have put a lot of effort there, but I don't know that Fitzo would have that sort of u pull um in and influence to to do things that Orban was able to do. Uh Babish back into the Czech Republic is a problem. um even with a uh even with a much more obviously former NATO chairman military committee as a president now um Russian influence is just not what it was that that footprint um and and then as you highlight u people that Russia has supported in the past Venezuela got no help Armenia got no help Syria got no help um the the attempt to influence the election of Muldova was a failure. Only in Georgia have the Russians been able to maintain uh this direct sort of influence. Um and of course obviously Bellerus. So, I think that uh you've you've touched on something that's true that the Russians ability to influence what's going on inside the boundaries of their neighbors is decreasing partly because of the their failures and inability to win this war that they have started against Ukraine uh and what the Ukrainians are doing to them. So despite the fact that the United States is not, as far as I can tell, playing a very helpful role in providing anything to Ukraine, u European countries have stepped up significantly, but also most of the credit goes to Ukraine themselves. Now, I do think that uh the Ukrainians are hoping that the United States at least stays close enough that it can help um provide a a framework for negotiations with the Russians. I'm sure you were reading today like I was. Uh uh Budanov has seemed slightly optimistic that he can see that the Russians are looking for a way out now also. So, who knows? It does feel to me that the momentum has shifted inside Ukraine. I can't point to a specific thing, but you just don't hear this endless narrative about, you know, Russian victories inevitable. Um, it you you don't hear people talking about artillery ammunition anymore or even personnel shortages, even though those are still issues. It's just it's not it's not in the conversation that like the way it was.
>> But but again, we're not we're not hearing much from Putin. He seems to be very quiet. you know, there have been more air defense assets moved around his uh his accommodation in or just outside Moscow. Um on on the front lines, it seems as if um there's increased reporting that the Ukrainians are um advancing and you getting through whether they're punching through, you know, language is always interesting here when people are are are commenting on it, but they're getting through some of the Russian defenses. Um and then at the operational level, you know, the Russians seem to be uh impotent when it comes to trying to stop the Ukrainian attacks against their oil and gas infrastructure and defense manufacturing and everything else. Does the momentum lie with Ukraine at the moment?
>> That's what I think. Uh I I agree with you completely. Uh and you're right. I mean, where where is Vladimir Putin?
Well, I I imagine that they are dealing with the the uh consequences of Ukraine's significantly increased ability to destroy Russian oil and gas export capabilities. I mean, at at range. And uh this this to me seems to be the path to victory for Ukraine. If they can they can make it uh if they can damage Russia's export ability so significantly that they can no longer afford the war. and and then the oligarchs start getting very uncomfortable with all of this. And um so, you know, if you're if we're talking to our European friends, the best way to defend themselves is to make sure that Ukraine wins. And that means investing in Ukrainian defense or giving them long-range weapons, things will help them continue to pound away on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure as well as Russian logistics. And I don't think that the Russians have proven to be very capable at doing this. And you know, Russia is so large, what used to be an asset for them, I think now really in modern warfare with long range precision weapons, it has become a liability that the Ukrainians are exploiting because the Russians cannot cover all of it. And um of course we don't even talk about the Black Sea fleet anymore, although I think yesterday was the fourth anniversary of the sinking of the Muska.
And uh I the one thing that they haven't been able to stop is Russian attacks against civilian targets. Uh you know that that's still a problem. And uh until we can either kill all the archers or improve Ukraine's ability to knock down the arrows, this is going to continue to be a problem. But Russia's got huge numbers of archers and an even bigger number of arrows and that's the difficulty. It's just it's the sheer volume that's there um and the technologies that are needed to try and remove this. But you're looking at other technologies and other woes for the Russians. You the there have been reports recently that the Ukrainians have managed to um damage or destroy the last of the um railway fies that went across um into Crimea um having then damaged the railway link that goes across the Kesh Bridge. So that Russia is having real difficulties um logistically resupplying Crimea and is having to take it um roadwise through Russia down the captured areas of the Donbass and and into Crimea. How vulnerable do you think Crimea is? Do you think it would be um an act of stupidity if the the Ukrainians tried to open another front and get into there? I think that um Crimea I still believe as I did since the beginning that Crimea is the decisive terrain of the war because not only what it represents uh in a symbolic you know for Putin this whole thing started with them seizing Crimea and then the seap ports that are there and uh the ability to project power across the Black Sea really comes from Crimea.
But on a practical standpoint, if if Russia is no longer able to use any of those ports there, and they've already had to move the the Black Sea fleet out of Seistole, um but it still, you know, has airfields there. It still has capabilities. If the Ukrainians were able to um isolate it, you know, that big bridge is eventually going to come down. I'm I'm I'm confident of that. Um so when they take out the fairies, they take out that bridge or can the Russians have to worry that it is not safe or usable. Um then the isolation of Crimea um leads to its uh loss of real value to the Russians at least for a while. And and so I think the the Ukrainians will continue to hit airfields there, continue to hit uh air defense systems there. Um, I would not anticipate anytime soon a direct assault of some sort that I don't they don't need to do that right now, but um I don't I am pretty confident that uh that President Jalinsky and General Sirki and General Bodanov it's still on their objective list. Well, we've seen, you know, increasingly through through this war, the importance of the SPU, their um intelligence services, and the HUR/GUR, depending on what what acronym they're they're using today. Um the importance of those sorts of activities that if we put it into sort of Second World War terms, we'd have it as special operations executive type stuff. Is this something that, you know, as we're seeing our modern armies develop further, we should put more effort into making sure we've got those capabilities available um should they be needed today?
>> Well, I think um part of the security guarantee for Ukraine is not going to be association with NATO or something like that. It's going to be them becoming Israel um of Europe with very large defense industry uh a very large and capable um reserve territorial force capability that can mobilize rapidly and is already trained has all their kit um and has a society that's prepared that it that is committed to this. Uh but it also has a an arm much like the Mossad that can um hunt down uh Russian generals and anybody else that was responsible for war crimes, attacks on civilians, kidnap children, all these kinds of things. And so, um, I think the GUR is going to make life miserable for, uh, these Russian officers who who will spend the rest of their life checking under their car and looking over their shoulder because GUR is out there. And, uh, I think this will help the Ukrainians maintain a sort of an initiative against against the Russians. The R, as far as I can tell, the Russians have not demonstrated the ability to do the same thing to the Ukrainians.
>> No, the Russians are, you know, on the back foot tactically, on the back foot operationally. Um, they you seem to have difficulties with all of the um areas in the world that they were trying to influence. But do you think it's still important that European nations recognize that there is a real potential for longerterm threat and continue to invest in defense? And which European nations? Um, and I'll include the UK in this. Um, and well, UK and Canada, um, under the European label, which European nations are not living up to what they should be doing? Well, you know, um, Philip, the something I think you and I have talked about before, these these grreyzone operations, uh, that the Russians conduct against all of us and, um, if if the civilian leadership is unwilling or unable to look at that and see what it is and then speak to our populations as if they were adults about what's what's going on, that the Russians are actually at war with us, even if maybe They're not launching Kinszel missiles against uh London or Berlin or Gdansk.
The fact is the Russians are using all of their tools to create dissension, to fracture us, uh to probe, to constantly test, and to scare people so that they put pressure on their government to stop supporting Ukraine. Um, so the sooner that all of us get serious about inflicting consequences on the Russians for what they're doing, the sooner it stops. I thought it was very uh important that Mr. Healey the other day came out and publicly called out the Russian submarines that were um operating around pipelines and cables.
And what you correctly pointed out is that this was important because we don't normally talk about, you know, when we have found them, you you don't you actually don't want them to know that we know where they are. So you can follow them around. But this this was uh I thought an important point for the Mr. Healey to to say, you know, we know where you are. We know how to do this.
We still know how to do this. And um I think a more muscular response uh against submarines, ships operating in territorial waters or even even in international waters but doing things that are uh uh dangerous like cutting cables um or these shadow fleet vessels that are carrying Russian oil out through the Baltic Sea. This is the kind of stuff that we have to deal with. This is an important part of defense. It's not just about having, you know, conventional forces that could uh fight combat successfully. So, um I'm I'm reluctant to say, well, this country is doing great, this one's not.
Certainly, uh and I'm not throwing bouques here. My experience is that the Royal Navy, the Royal Air Force, and the British Army, the quality of people, the quality of officers, uh remains as good as I remember. Just not enough.
>> Yeah. No. Well, you know, the not enough is an argument that comes up as we turn to the the geopolitical elephant that's in the room at the moment. Um, you know, the the hot war with Iran or um, you know, the the we're not quite in the hot war stage at the minute because we're we're we've got a ceasefire, but let's theoretically make you Commander Sentcom. Um, are are you going to resign immediately or or, you know, how are you going to deal with the tasks that you now have in hand? And Commander Sentcom, for those that don't know, is the US commander that's commanding all of the operations into uh the Middle East and has now just been charged with um uh blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
>> So, uh I think we're all for non-Navy people, we're all learning a lot here in the last 72 hours about what's involved in a blockade. I mean it's uh um the the different capabilities that are required and I'm impressed with what I've seen from the US Navy uh both in terms of ships that are being deployed there, the uh countermine things they're doing, the boarding teams that they have, the different types of platforms that are there, uh and then working out the procedures on how do you uh you know communicate to a ship that you want to stop. Um, I think Admiral Cooper, who is the legitimate commander of Central Command, um, he's the one that probably took a, uh, kind of a messy go blockade the straight.
>> Yeah, we call it a hospital pass.
>> The, uh, um, who's actually figured out, okay, we can we can actually blockade the Iranian ports along the kind of the north northern shore of the straight. I was looking today. I think there are six major Iranian ports, probably bunches of smaller ones, uh, which could host these smaller attack ships. But the main ports where oil tankers might be going in and out or other kind of larger vessels, I think that's what he's focusing, that's where he's focusing the blockade. Now, uh the first time you have a Chinese flag vessel that um comes through there, uh are I mean this is when it will start getting uh really challenging and people are having to make judgment calls. I think that the US and China both probably would like to avoid a confrontation before the president goes to Beijing. Um the the uh Saudis are of course are concerned that the uh Houthis might try to close the the strait between Djibouti and Yemen there. The uh uh Bob al Mander Mand which they have done before.
So there's there's a combination of deterrence and uh and diplomacy all all mixed together. So what do you think the next steps are? Because you know Iran has clearly withdrawn from any negotiations. JD Vance didn't stay very long on the ground and Pakistan negotiating which you knowing the Arabs as as as we both do. You know, you you you spend three or four days just talking about stuff that's nothing to do what you with what you want to do. Um by way of setting up to get to the the main effort that you sit down and talk about.
That clearly hasn't happened here.
>> Yeah, I that was a pathetic uh performance by the US side. I'm embarrassed to say that first of all, we send Kushner and uh Witco who are two real estate guys. um they have no business being there except that they are doing business on the side and then the vice president comes rolling in and people are talking, oh wow, they did a 21-hour marathon. But you're right, the Iranians who uh the Persians, they've been at this for three or 4 thousand years and um the JCPOA took many, many, many months to get that done. And so the idea that you could just roll in and in 21 hours of threats that somehow the Iranians would give in, either the US side was never serious about it, which the president kind of acts like he said, I don't care if we get a deal or not. Um or they really continue to underestimate the Iranians and and that's not good for us.
>> Yeah. Well, you know, 21 hours, I I laughed at it. I remember being taught about planning um uh whenever US SANS graduates came in to help us with bits and pieces and we all always got into pizza planning and the pizza planning was were the only thing that you could get underneath the closed door pizzas to be slid underneath it. Um and planning um only finished whenever you finished and you and you were fed with the pizzas slid under the door. So pizza planning which which was good. So yes, 21 hours um was definitely not enough. Um but do you think we're going to get back to bombing? Um I I think there's there's a possibility of that, of course, and we're still inside the famous two weeks that the president had said. There's the ceasefire appears to still be uh holding there. So, um you who knows this this could be I I saw today that the Iranians had come back with a another counter offer about uh regarding the uh weapons grade uranium. uh a period of time to gradually get rid of that. And um I I think there's a lot of factors at play and you've got uh other countries, particularly the Arab countries in the region who certainly don't like Iran. Um but they also would like to see this ended as soon as possible. And they they probably are worried a little bit that President Trump is going to declare victory and leave. And uh and then you've got the Israelis. I I have always wondered at what point would the Israeli objectives and the US objectives begin to diverge? Um how long and of course both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump I think in the long run have different uh outcomes in mind.
>> Yeah. But by by way of a final question as a theory that's going through the around my head. Do you think there's a possibility the Chinese might turn around and say right we're going to come and secure the streets of H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H formuz for the international community um and in particular the Arab community and then and therefore by doing that almost user US influence across the region um and come in as the the the all singing all dancing heroes that um saved the world.
>> I I imagine that the Chinese are looking at you know what what are their principal interests here? uh obviously number one to ensure continued access to the energy that they need, but they they'll get it from somewhere. If they can't get it out of the uh the Middle East, they'll they'll get it from somewhere else, whether it's Russia or elsewhere, which of course if they have to do that, then the price goes up even more. Um I could be wrong, but I think that I'd be surprised if the US would say, "Oh boy, we're sure glad you're here. Now you can you can handle this." Because I think at the end of the day, I don't think Iran having nuclear weapons is actually the main thing. I I think it's more about uh the US wanting to make sure that they had a um some kind of a strong hand in the supply and the flow of oil because of not just because you need oil for your economy but the whole system of petro dollars that keeps everybody on US currency in the in the global markets. If it so if that if that fails that that has really significant long-term implications for the American economy and our ability to you know have huge amounts of debt if if people find that they can avoid having to use the pro dollars. So I think that is behind a lot of the thinking uh by the administration. Well, Ben, if you're right, that would suggest that we're on the path to some form of off-ramping. Um, let's hope we get to that off-ramping, but I think the world is so unstable. We're going to have lots more opportunities to talk. So, General Ben Hodges, it's been a real pleasure talking to you today on Front Line once again.
>> Well, thank you for the privilege, Philip. I always enjoy talking with you.
>> Thank you. Thank you for watching Front Line. Um, we'll keep you up to date with what's going on in Ukraine. Of course, you can get us on your favorite podcast channel. Just search for Times Radio Frontline. You can get us on Times Radio at 0135 Greenwich Meime um in the UK or 2035 Eastern Standard Time in the United States. But um please like, subscribe, and share us with all of your friends because we'll keep you up to date with what's going on. Thank you. Goodbye.
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