SEVERE WEATHER Is About To SHIFT In May...

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]A brand new storm is about to form, and this one could pack a real punch with major severe weather implications.

[00:00:07]In today's video, I'll show you the atmospheric conditions creating this storm and why this one could be powerful. Plus, the latest track as brand new model guidance starts to roll in. And finally, if you stay long enough, you'll find out who could have the highest tornado threat as the storms begin to spin up.

[00:00:28]Well, the main driver of this storm system that's going to form next week is this big upper level trough that is going to work from west to east across the United States. And it's going to bring plenty of lift with it. Uh the question that we still need to figure out is what exact orientation does this trough take and how is that going to affect the surface storm uh that it fires off? Let's go ahead and update you with uh where we are kind of right now out there on this uh Thursday going into Friday. We've got a very strong belt of winds over the southern part of the country. Uh but notice the orientation of that is important. It's very zonal or kind of flat here from west to east.

[00:01:03]Anytime you have zonal winds, uh the weather is usually a little bit more boring. So that's kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing a little bit of a lull in the action over the next couple of days. By the time we go into the weekend, we are going to get a little bit of a short wave in this to develop by Saturday. Uh you can see here is one trough kind of developing and here's your short wave embedded in it. That's going to be creating enough lift out there that we are going to get a coastal storm to develop and actually ride up the east coast. Watch what happens with this trough. It's exactly what it does.

[00:01:32]It starts to tilt and it goes from what we call a positive tilt to more of a neutral tilt. You can see here how it starts to get a little bit more vertical with how that trough is oriented and creating a big strong jet streak right off the Carolina coastline. That's going to fuel uh likely bomb cyclloenesis here. You can see that low pressure developing in a big way right there off the coast of New England. We are going to get a noraster out of that. I'll be honest, not too far from actually almost a winter storm. Uh if it were uh pulling in that low pressure a little bit more towards the coast, then we're not done.

[00:02:04]By next week, this is when things get a bit more interesting. Kind of double trouble. Here's one trough kind of dipping into the northern part of the country. Here is another trough uh with a uh a bit of a closed low pressure system starting to work into the west coast. And the big question that we still need to kind of iron out and figure out here is how do these two interact with each other? You can see we've got a lot of wind, we've got a lot of energy, but how do they link up? Do they link up in a way that creates a bigger storm or are we going to get maybe a more mild storm? Earlier on, the model showed a very powerful one. The latest runs have backed off a little bit. I'll show you that here in a moment. Uh but uh either way, we have got a lot of wind energy and what that is going to help to do uh very likely is uh kick up uh some instability out there. It will be pulling in plenty of uh moisture from both the Gulf and the Pacific. Check it out on your Dupoint map. This is your muggy meter. Uh kind of getting a bit of a break uh this weekend from it as cold air is moving down, but still going to be quite muggy over Florida this weekend. What's new though, right? That's just a typical day in the sunshine state. Basically any time of the year outside of those big fronts we get in January. But then that second system that comes in early next week, starts to pull some moisture back north. How far north can it get pulled?

[00:03:15]That's what we're going to need to watch. But you can see by the early part of the week, Monday, we do get this moist sector that could be conducive enough to fire off some strong storms as that upper level energy moves over it.

[00:03:25]And then kind of it moves a little bit further south. And I think the biggest moist sector next week is going to be into the Gulf States from Texas all the way up through the Carolinas. And that's likely where the severe threat will maximize with this setup. All right, that's the upper levels and how it's fueling the surface. Now, let me show you the latest track of this system, how we've trended a little bit, and give you the brand new model data that just came out. Let's start with the weekend storm that hasn't changed a whole lot in its track. Here it is starting to develop.

[00:03:54]Uh this is uh by tomorrow morning, Friday, we're going to have this big low pressure right over Texas basically that gets going as that upper level trough starts to fuel it. Also, New Mexico going to get some snow out of this out towards Santa Fe and into even the southern Rockies there of Colorado.

[00:04:10]Yeah, getting some snow in April, but not too uncommon out there in the Rockies. Then that big shield of rain starts to shift east. Now, there will be a limited severe weather threat with this kind of uh right along the Gulf Coast, right into that region, that belt from Corpus Christie to Houston all the way over to New Orleans and then into the panhandle of Florida. Uh not going to be an outbreak or anything like that, but something absolutely to keep a watchful eye on. Then it starts to shift further east. This is by Saturday, overnight Friday into Saturday. Check it out. A nice shield of rain into a droughtstricken area of Florida, Alabama, the Carolinas. This looks like the first real good soaking we've had in a while. And you can see here's that surface low pressure right off the South Carolina coast by early Saturday morning. And uh bringing a good shield of rain with it. Starts to work up the coast. Now, I will tell you there will be a fine line with this. So areas into the mountains of Appalachia might not get a whole lot, but the coast probably will get a pretty good amount. I will also say sometimes in the last second in the models, these things like to shift back northwest a little bit. So that could help areas a little bit further inland. Obviously, we'll watch the trends on it. Then this thing really starts to get a boost from that upper level trough I told you about. And look at it crank as it rides up the coast.

[00:05:18]Kind of a coastal scraper for New England. So Cape Cod, Nantucket could get some rain. Maybe even the down east areas of Maine could be a bit breezy as well. And then this almost turns into a bit of a blizzard up towards Halifax into parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland where still just enough cold air to work with. Look at that 979 millibar low. That's that bomo genesis I told you about and bringing some snow all the way up into Canada. Then comes next week's system and that's where things start to get a little bit more tricky in the model data. We've got a little bit less confidence. Here was the morning run of the GFS. That's what I'm showing you right now. And uh notice what happens. It starts to get some showers and storms over the Ohio Valley here by the time that we go into early next week. This is by Tuesday evening.

[00:05:59]You could see some of that rain developing out that way. Then you go further into time and it really cranks up that storm. But then comes that second upper level boost of energy and that gets the next storm really going in the morning run of the GFS. had a lot of storms and really cranked this thing up 996 millibars um down to below 990 millibars as it ran up the Great Lakes and then turned into just this massive storm system off the east coast. Look at it there. You can see the uh low pressure right here. And then that frontal system, I mean literally going all the way down to Florida. So had a big storm as the upper levels really helped to fuel it in the morning run.

[00:06:35]The afternoon run on some of the models a little bit different. Let me show you some of those uh differences between them and what the latest track shows and where we could go from here. All right, this is the brand new run of the GFS.

[00:06:46]Hot off the press and the European kind of followed suit. The European last night had a big uh storm system and then here's the new run. What does it show?

[00:06:54]Well, you still have that storminess to start the week right over the Ohio Valley, Mazeville, Louisville down towards uh kind of the Paduca area that kind of works on through. Could create some severe weather. Then you get some more storminess to get going by Wednesday, Thursday. Uh but notice kind of the difference. I'll zoom out here and show you much of kind of the eastern half of North America. And watch what ends up happening. Yeah, you still get that storm, but it's a lot more messy.

[00:07:18]It looks quite different than the run previous did. You don't have as big of a storm system. And instead, you kind of get a lot more little pieces of energy instead of one really big piece of energy. And obviously, that would have a pretty big impact on the forecast, all things considered. So, we're in this kind of wait and see game. The models are doing a little bit of a windshield wiper effect. I will tell you, this past week, the models absolutely blew.

[00:07:41]Straight buns is what they were. Um, so we're going to need some time to figure this one out. I think the real uh story line will be when that piece of energy gets over North America, we'll get better analysis of it. That should happen this weekend. So, we'll see if this is just a quick jump one way or if this is a trend. It's just too soon to know for sure. But uh the cards are on the table in the upper levels for a big storm system next week that could produce widespread severe weather and windiness for a lot of us. So that's what we'll be watching as the trends and uh what way that goes. Either way, I think we'll see severe weather. Let me show you who has the highest tornado threat with this pattern. All right, let's talk about the tornado potential with this setup next week. We'll start with our thunderstorm fuel ingredient or the Cape values, whatever you want to call it, again this weekend kind of trapped down towards the Gulf Coast. So could see some stronger storms down that way uh over the coming days. You can see that right there. But other than that, check it out. By Sunday, I mean, we are basically thunderstorm fuel free across the United States, but that doesn't last very long. Check it out how that thunderstorm fuel starts to work back in by Sunday a little bit. Uh but uh especially by Monday here. So Monday at 5:00 p.m., notice we're starting to get back into some of those uh higher fuel values. Remember, we've got a lot of wind here. So what I'll do here on Monday at 5:00 p.m., let me take a sounding. We'll start down here in Indiana and let me show you what I'm talking about and uh you'll get an idea of uh kind of the thought process here.

[00:09:01]All right, so this is a photograph. This kind of measures what and all is happening in the atmosphere and I've got it coded in here that you can see exactly what some of the numbers are and how that ends up uh playing into this.

[00:09:11]So over here, this is uh the photograph part. This is uh the windshare vector.

[00:09:16]And you can see right there on the label, curved equals windshare equals tornado potential. And if you ask me, that's pretty curved. So, we've got some of that on Monday. Here we go on the left hand side. This right here is your Cape region between your lifted parcel there as well as your temperature right stuck between the two. And Cape values down here might be hard to see around 1,500 or so. So, not off the chart, but enough that uh you start to think twice about things. And that is a sounding that absolutely could produce uh some active severe weather, including a tornado. So, for Monday, uh that is what I'd be watching is that area. you go deeper into time. By the time we go, here we go into Tuesday. By Tuesday, severe weather starts to shift south a little bit. Let's do the exact same thing. And uh take a sounding here over parts of East Texas. What does this look like? Well, guess what? We can do the math again. All right, the photograph this time a little bit more straight, but there's still a lot of wind shear and there is some curvature there, but a lot more cape here by Tuesday, further south over Texas. Uh so, your storm fuel higher. It's starting to get up 2,000 to 3,000 jewels per kilogram. The higher the number, the higher likelihood you're going to see some active weather. All right, so Tuesday, yeah, starting to look a little interesting there. What about Wednesday? Here we go. Wednesday at 800 PM, it's a lot of the same. A lot of thunderstorm fuel. You keep it going.

[00:10:31]By Thursday, even more. Let's take a sounding uh let's go a little bit further into time. Here's Friday.

[00:10:37]Saturday, you can see more of it. Let's actually back it up a bit. Let's take another sounding on Thursday at 5:00 p.m. Let's do a little bit further east.

[00:10:44]Let's do Mississippi, Alabama this time and see how things are looking for folks out that way. Uh, and your sounding analysis this time. Not as exciting, but you still have pretty strong wind shear, just not as curved. You've got some cape. You definitely have some ingredients for severe weather. Let me show you this though. Uh, if I can get my face back on the screen, that'd be helpful, right? Let's go even further.

[00:11:05]If next week doesn't do it, what about further out into time? Notice how some of that thunderstorm fuel keeps coming back and keeps even trying to get further east. If we had a stronger storm next week, the map would probably look something like this. And uh again, we can just do like a kind of test sounding here over Alabama to see what that would look like. Uh once again, has a pretty big severe weather sounding. Uh you got your curved photograph. You've got a lot more cape on this sounding. And uh that's uh those are the things that you want to be mindful of. All right, let's go ahead and give you the latest on kind of the overall things to take away from this video. widespread severe weather chances are going to return as we go into next week. Now, there is high model uncertainty on this, but if it doesn't do it next week, then the week after also looking quite active. So, either way, I think the first half of May will have severe weather. Also, a weekend Gulf and East Coast storm. We talked about that a little bit. Uh, and that will definitely be bringing a wet weekend for a lot of us. In fact, also probably a bit of a chilly one as you saw that thunderstorm fuel is basically gone for the most part across much of the United States over the coming uh days outside of maybe the Gulf Coast where we'll have some thunderstorm fuel.

[00:12:10]And per usual, hit the bell for the latest notifications. Down below, let me know where you're watching from. Let me know if you enjoyed the video. Hit the like button as well. It's going to help more people uh find these videos. And folks, we'll be back next week with live severe weather coverage um as much as possible. A couple things I want to throw here at the end. I've got a pretty crazy May ahead of me. Uh I've got a lot of things back home uh to take care of.

[00:12:32]Nothing bad, just uh Mother's Days and birthdays and my sister's graduating high school and all this other stuff. Uh so I will be in and out of town a bit in May. So there will be some days unfortunately I'll just have to miss. I also have a vacation that has been planned for a while uh in the middle of May. So I will apologize for all that up front, but uh that was all planned out well before uh the changes to the channel came. Either way, there will be live coverage as much as possible. And after that, uh, my schedule really opens up. So, expect a very active June and hurricane season here on the channel.

[00:13:00]All right, y'all have a great rest of your day. Stay safe. Come back tomorrow for a brand new update on the pattern ahead.