Exclusive: IMD Chief Explains India’s Weak Monsoon Warning | What It Means For You?

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]forward. The biggest news that we've been tracking since morning for you is the IMD [music] uh you know latest forecast that we have which talks about a 90% LPA uh below normal rainfall [music] forecast. Let's actually get speaking with uh Dr. Mutin Jay Mahopatra the DG of IMD to help our viewers understand what the latest forecast truly means. Uh a warm welcome on the show Dr. Mahopatra good to have you with us. First up, explain to our viewers, you have reduced uh your forecast of uh the monsoons, the southwest monsoons. It was pegged at 92% LPA earlier. Now it is 90% LPA. What does this mean? Is there a huge difference? What should investors understand uh from this?

[00:00:48]Yeah, you told correctly. The second update on the monsoon season rainfall for June to September 2026 has been issued today. So we have revised our estimate from earlier 92% of the long period average to 90%. For the country as a whole we actually get about 87 cm of rainfall during past June to 30th September. And this year we are expecting that it will be 90% of that.

[00:01:21]So this model which is utilized has model error of plus - 4%. So therefore while it is most probable that it will be around 90% but it could be between 86% and 94%.

[00:01:36]When the rainfall is between 90 and 95% it is called as below normal rainfall category. So >> is there a downside risk to even 90% you are saying since you say it could be anywhere between 86 to 94 do we understand that there is some sort of a downside risk even below 90%.

[00:01:57]>> Yeah. Therefore that model uncertainty if you look at then we have to be prepared for 90 plus minus 4 that is 86 to 94%.

[00:02:09]>> And if you look at >> yeah please go ahead sir. If you look at the distribution of rainfall expected then our forecast says that um many parts of the country will have the probability of below normal rainfall during the season except some parts northwest India like Jaman Kashmir Ladak and then Himatra Pradesh and northeastern states of course and then souththeast peninsula like Andhra Pradesh Telangana and uming areas of southa or south southeast where you can expect normal to above normal rainfall activity in some parts of Tamil Nadu also you can have normal normal rainful activity. So therefore um there are certain areas where um you have some kind of positive forecast also that rainfall will be normal to above normal but in general for the country as a whole it will be below normal rainfall. Sir, what do you think about the how serious is El Nino threat this year? When will its impact peak out and which are uh can we avoid a droughtlike situation if we continue to see this below normal for the large part of the country? You are saying >> we have not predicted any drought. We have told only the below normal rainfall >> um expected and drought depends on many other factors and also so much deficient rainfall we have not predicted. to be predicted only 10% below the long period average >> and as far as Elino is concerned yes we have predicted that Elino will be there during the monsoon season and we are expecting weak elenino conditions in June which will be moderate elenino condition in July and August and September and towards end of September it may be a strong elino conditions that condition will continue in post monsoon season that is October November and December If we look at >> are you also predicting delay in the onset? It used to be 1st of June for a lot of parts in the country is that also getting delayed and other parts as well.

[00:04:24]Do you see there is a delay now in the onset? Now I will come to that before that let me tell that um in the past if you take the data from say 1951 onwards all the elino years it is found that 60 to 70% of years when there is alino condition rainfall becomes normal. It is not like that all elo years becomes affected. So therefore there is no one to one relationship but we will be monitoring and getting update for elenino condition also every month and also the rainfall forecast. So regarding the monsoon onset, yes, today we have issued the forecast for rainfall over June. Rainfall June says that in many parts it will be below normal and country as a whole it will be below normal rainfall. But however, South India especially in the eastern part of South India will have normal to above normal rainfall activity.

[00:05:17]>> Got that? Usually monsoon advances over south India first then goes northeast India then around last week of June only monsoon comes to northwest India.

[00:05:27]Therefore rain June is mainly attributed by that occurrence over south and central and eastern India and advance of monsoon we have told within a week monsoon is likely to advance into southern parts of the south India and some parts of northeast India which is near normal.

[00:05:46]>> All right. Dr. Mahabatra, thank you so much for getting us all of those updates. We'll of course keep getting in touch with you as in when you keep uh uh you know updating us with the newer forecast of the monsoon. But right now, >> if you like the video, do like, [music] comment, share and subscribe.