Trump Claims Xi Offered Help to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz | Larry Johnson Analysis

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]Did you read the the post by Trump?

[00:00:03]Oh, yes. Yeah.

[00:00:05]Oh, damn it. Damn it. I wanted to I wanted to be the one to read it to you so I see your reaction live.

[00:00:11]Yeah. It Well, I I'd already had information.

[00:00:14]Uh friend of mine has talked to a White House source.

[00:00:17]Said that the Chinese told Trump to go pound sand.

[00:00:23]Why? Like how?

[00:00:25]Like in the meeting is it in the meeting he came and asked for help on Iran they're like, "Hey, no." Yeah, they just He was Whatever request he made of the Chinese, the Chinese rejected it.

[00:00:37]Mhm.

[00:00:40]And all they gave him is these political compliments that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz should be open, there should not be there should be freedom of passage.

[00:00:51]And I think they said they won't they won't militarily help according to Trump. They won't military militarily help Iran. It's just empty words to give him something he can take to MAGA. Yes.

[00:01:00]Yeah, that's that's a lie. Uh China's providing Iran with military assistance.

[00:01:05]>> Yeah, New York Times article came out today. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:01:10]>> [snorts] >> Mhm.

[00:01:17]Yeah.

[00:01:18]What do you make of that post?

[00:01:21]What What do you do when you're an insecure insecure person?

[00:01:26]You always You always hype.

[00:01:29]You know, that's what Trump's doing.

[00:01:31]He's just he he's a very insecure person. He has to make everything all you know, it's Yeah, it was Biden that was bad. He's great. He's the greatest of all time.

[00:01:41]So that's just for the audience that hasn't read the post. This is Trump just put out a post 10 minutes ago, I think.

[00:01:45]He said cuz she indirectly said the US is a declining nation. I can't remember the exact quote, maybe you remember and you can tell us. And then what Trump's post is it's what what she meant what the US was a declining nation under Biden, but is no longer a declining nation under Trump. And even she praised Trump and what he's done these 16 months. And another thing he said is that the and he started going through all the you know, the all-time high in the stock market, etc. And he also says the the relationship with Venezuela, thriving relationship, and the military decimation of Iran, quote, to be continued in brackets. But then, so that's Trump's response to the statement by Xi. Do you remember Xi's exact statement what it was?

[00:02:26]Uh no. No, I don't.

[00:02:27]>> Mhm. But you know, look >> Look look, it it is >> [snorts] >> uh I think we talked about last time.

[00:02:33]Uh the Chinese sent all the signals that they consider the United States a second-rate nation.

[00:02:40]Uh they didn't tout it on the they they didn't put it on the front on the front headline, you know, the major headline that oh, Trump's coming to for talks.

[00:02:49]No, they focused on the relationship with Tajikistan, which, you know, the rail road that connects China to Iran passes through Tajikistan.

[00:02:59]And the sidebars story was only peripherally about Trump. It was more about all the international challenges that Xi is confronting uh on behalf of China.

[00:03:10]Uh the uh major websites uh in in China didn't say a thing about uh the visit. Uh the Iranian flags were still up 6 hours before Trump landed uh in China. So, instead of putting US flags up, they had Iranian flags up.

[00:03:33]Um So, it was and then the greeting at the airport.

[00:03:37]Uh Trump was met by, you know, the second tier. He wasn't met by Xi.

[00:03:43]When Putin visited in 2024, Xi was there at the airport.

[00:03:48]In fact, when Kim Jong-un visited China, Xi was at the airport.

[00:03:52]So, you got a lot of, you know, Trump apologists trying to say, "Oh, this This is They're just following protocol."

[00:03:59]Nonsense.

[00:04:01]Yeah, you follow You follow protocol for Bolivia.

[00:04:04]You'll follow protocol for Angola.

[00:04:08]You know, you follow protocol maybe for Cyprus.

[00:04:12]But, if if you're dealing with someone who's important, you follow You You bring out the big guns. I didn't know he met I didn't know they met Putin at the at the tarmac.

[00:04:22]Yeah. Um Photographs. I had some people say, "Oh, that's not true." Just look at the photographs, for God's sake. You know, the trolls and bots that are out there is ridiculous.

[00:04:33]Um So, what do you make of the statement by um by the White House, where he said the two sides agreed that if the Strait of Hormuz that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy. She also made clear China's opposition to the militarization of the Strait of Hormuz and any effort to charge a toll for its use.

[00:04:54]And he expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait in the future.

[00:05:00]Both Both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Obviously, that last point is pretty pretty useless. But, the points before that, buying American oil and then saying that no one should charge a fee at the Strait of Hormuz. What's the point of these uh of these promises that she made to the US? Or these not so promises, but these statements that she made to the US?

[00:05:21]Well, allegedly that she made to the US.

[00:05:24]What Trump says >> According to White House, yeah. made to the US. This is the Trump White House trying to put lipstick on a pig and claim that it's Marilyn Monroe, okay?

[00:05:34]Uh it is uh um it's it's it's just sort of a desperate attempt to put the biggest, brightest shine on this.

[00:05:41]Yeah, I'm sure the Chinese said, "Yeah, we'd like the Strait of Hormuz open.

[00:05:44]You, the United States, need to lift your blockade.

[00:05:48]Because the only one that's preventing the Strait of Hormuz from operating right now is the United States. Now, Iran put through 70 ships today.

[00:05:58]70 ships that had met the Iranian conditions. 70 ships sailed out. Now, is the United States going to try to stop them? I doubt it. They don't have enough naval power to do so.

[00:06:08]I think they announced Let me just quickly check.

[00:06:11]But I think it it they announced that there is um that 70 ships have gone through this week, I think. Let me check. Oh no, so is that different to So Iran says 70 ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz with its authorization since Wednesday. So last 2 days. They're the That's what you're referring to.

[00:06:25]Yeah.

[00:06:25]>> So last 2 days with Chinese vessels among the first to transit under Tehran's new management protocols. Iran is framing this as a as proof it controls the strait. Chinese ships were prioritized. Do you think they charged a fee to the Chinese ships? Or do you think they charged to all the fee all the ships' fees except China? Yeah, probably all except China.

[00:06:44]Because China is also providing aid. And I'm sure Iran recognizes that you know there's [snorts] a there's a quid pro quo in that.

[00:06:53]So instead of China said, "Okay, here you're going to have to pay us back for this." They offset it with the charges for going through the strait. But again, the United States is is is push pushing a false narrative that China is dependent on oil flows out of the Persian Gulf. Not true.

[00:07:14]Does it provide a a good supply of oil? Yes, but they've got alternatives. Remember, Brazil pumps as much as Iran, and Brazil has stepped up its supply of oil to China. As well as Russia has stepped up its supply of oil to China. And I don't know where Trump's getting that, you know, China's going to buy US oil. You know, US oil doesn't have enough to export. It's running low. It's running low on reserves. It's just, you know, the stead the increase that was taking place in price of oil is now dropped down about 10 cents in the United States.

[00:07:47]>> but I guess what I said so you said that this is according to the White House. So yeah, there's been no statements from any from the Foreign Ministry of China or any state media in China about no China no there should be no toll on the Strait of Hormuz Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon and about buying US oil.

[00:08:03]None of that came out of China. So only coming out of the US just >> Well, the again Iran should not have a nuclear weapon.

[00:08:09]Well, that's Iran's position.

[00:08:12]You know, so anyway.

[00:08:15]It's just crazy.

[00:08:16]>> the oil one the oil one didn't come out of China either.

[00:08:19]But is it possible that So I would be surprised if the White House made a statement without the without the okay from China. Otherwise China would just say no and embarrass them.

[00:08:27]>> Okay, why would you say that? I'll tell you. I'll tell you. So I think what I think happened is China said all right you you can say that we won't say it. So we can always deny it. We No one can say we claimed it. You could say that we won't deny it. And they're giving him political capital because they couldn't give him anything else which goes in line with what you said it they told him to pound sand. So they're not conceding on their support their military support to Iran. They're not saying they're going to support him in in opening the Strait of Hormuz or getting Iran to concede whatever it is removing the toll booth from Iran.

[00:08:57]But what we can do is give you these political wins which cost us nothing cost Iran nothing but you can go to your base and say hey we're winning China's doing X Y Z. And if anything that might even encourage Trump to go back and attack Iran militarily which only works in in China's interest. So that's why they I think the only thing they gave him is some political capital for his MAGA base.

[00:09:18]Um I personally doubt it because the Chinese they have a clear sense of what their interests are.

[00:09:26]And and she made that very clear in his statements opening statements with Trump.

[00:09:31]You know, it's got to be one of one of mutual respect.

[00:09:35]And we got to we got to take this off of, you know, he cited uh the Thucydides trap.

[00:09:42]Now, [snorts] Thucydides trap had its origin, I guess, with Graham Allison, a scholar who commented that with respect to the competition between Sparta and Athens that, you know, Sparta had been the established power, Athens was becoming a power and it ultimately led to a war between the two and it weakened both, but it weakened Sparta even more. Sparta you know, ceased really being a player.

[00:10:10]So, what what she is acknowledging is that the United States and and China are competitors and China is the rising power. And the United States is the declining power. And, you know, Trump can you know, he can spin it that oh, that was Biden, but now look at the United States. Yeah, look at the United States. It's now added $2 trillion additional debt in Trump's first 18 months in office.

[00:10:37]That makes us stronger?

[00:10:39]It's lost two wars. Well, it lost it failed to defeat the Houthis in the Red Sea.

[00:10:46]And then it has failed to defeat Iran.

[00:10:49]And in fact, the the immense damage that Trump claimed to have inflicted on Iran turns out not to be true, according to the US intelligence community. Yeah. So, exactly show me exactly where the United States is stronger. Uh it's it's sanctions on previous sanctions on China led China to respond by say, okay, we'll buy soybeans from Brazil. Screw the American farmers. And oh, yeah, no more rare earth minerals for you, which is what the United States absolutely must have without any alternative in order to build weapons that it wants to use against China.

[00:11:28]You know, China's holding the cards here. Trump Trump held no cards.

[00:11:33]Have you seen there is a there is a viral video going out. It's not the Lego one, but it's it's Trump at a table playing Uno with the with the Iranians.

[00:11:44]I haven't seen that. Yeah, it's hilarious cuz at the at the at the end the Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei plays the last Uno card.

[00:11:54]Which in Uno if once you run out of cards you win. And Trump's sitting there holding like eight cards going, "See, I hold all the cards."

[00:12:01]>> [laughter] >> And Iran goes, "Yeah, and you lost."

[00:12:05]Was it Was it released Was that a video released by Iranian Oh, yeah. Yeah.

[00:12:10]Oh, really? Oh, yeah, they're They've got a I was talking to Ali Hashem earlier. They said my they've got an incredible media machine and system they've built. Yeah, no listen. Anyway, I know I I should have told him Larry Johnson's enjoying those videos. That way that's how he gets up for every morning. Yeah. Yeah, I Watches it with his morning coffee.

[00:12:27]>> I give them credit.

[00:12:28]Of all the countries in the world, there's not a better there is not a country that does a better job of trolling, information ops, whatever you know, whatever you want to call it. I mean, they they they kick the ass of Russia, of China, of the United States hands down. Not even close. I mean, then and and the it's it's great content. It's well done.

[00:12:53]It's incredibly clever and it's always got a biting sense of humor with it. And you know, that that really appeals to me.

[00:13:02]Um so, a few more things I wrote down.

[00:13:04]President Trump said she is a great friend of mine. They as in China have promised they won't send any military equipment to Iran.

[00:13:11]Um So, that's that's useless. And then there's a statement by by China the not long after the White House statement. The The all they focus on is Taiwan. President Xi stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations.

[00:13:28]If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.

[00:13:39]Taiwan independence and cross-strait peace are as irreconcilable irreconcilable as fire and water.

[00:13:47]Safeguarding peace and stability across two Taiwan straits is the biggest common is the biggest common denominator between China and the US. The US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.

[00:13:59]Wow, the US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.

[00:14:05]So, the only concessions that Trump could give is is relating to Taiwan. Correct.

[00:14:11]>> And I just don't think the establishment in the US would allow that to happen.

[00:14:15]Well, that's true. And plus there's a court of course you know, the the United States has been touting it's got this multi-billion dollar weapons package with with Taiwan.

[00:14:27]Except, you know, the problem Oh, yeah, we're we're going to give you the pack three Patriot missile system.

[00:14:33]>> [snorts] >> How many how many you're producing right now? Oh, 55 a month, 60.

[00:14:39]How many you going to give us? And [snorts] at what time cuz you know, the United States has basically exhausted its inventory.

[00:14:46]So, once the United States replenishes its inventory, Taiwan might get the stuff in three, four, five years. So, you know, >> [snorts] >> it's it's like selling somebody the Brooklyn Bridge.

[00:15:00]I'm looking at the statement by China by the way. It doesn't even mention the word Iran.

[00:15:04]Iran, hear nothing. Let me see if it mentions Hormuz.

[00:15:07]No.

[00:15:08]Yeah. No, there their issue is Taiwan.

[00:15:12]Taiwan and the US sanctions that the the US put imposes on the Chinese and attempts to dictate to the Chinese how how they must conduct their government.

[00:15:22]You know, those are those are uh you know, sacred. Those are sovereign rights of China.

[00:15:27]>> Yeah, it doesn't mention Iran at all.

[00:15:31]Yeah, and that's that's where I think whatever I think the the the pound sand reference that uh the Chinese uh told Trump uh according to a White House source is um it was it regarded Iran.

[00:15:48]Uh the United States wanted to get China to intervene to help break basically bring Iran to heel. And you know, what China's doing with Russia is they're in the process of constructing this new strategic security architecture in the Persian Gulf, which basically expels the United States from the Persian Gulf.

[00:16:09]That's where this is headed.

[00:16:13]Yeah. Um so how does it relate to what we're seeing in um in Iran now? What happens is next there?

[00:16:20]We saw statements uh or reports on from uh Israeli media that there's a security meeting uh they're convening this weekend. Let me see what the reports are.

[00:16:30]And Channel 12 saying they're expecting war, Kan News they're expecting war. And Israel's preparing for war. The president canceled his trip to China to to to the US due to unforeseen circumstances.

[00:16:41]So the other war drums up and going again?

[00:16:44]Israeli president canceled his trip uh due to circumstances preventing the visit at this time.

[00:16:51]And the IDF will enter the maximum state of alert starting tomorrow when Trump leaves China. Yeah. I I the bet the bet I I wonder you know, for those who are into the poly market bet place the bet. How many how long after Trump goes wheels up in Beijing headed back to the States does the order to launch an attack on Iran come?

[00:17:15]You know, so if I was if was going to bed, I'd bet uh within 6 hours.

[00:17:21]You know.

[00:17:24]So, I I think it's >> imminent? Yeah, I I I think they're going to I think Trump is going to do it again.

[00:17:30]Uh But why?

[00:17:33]He's trapped. He he he he's got he's caught in a trap.

[00:17:37]Uh [snorts] and the and the trap is he he either tries to go all in and and pull a rabbit out of the hat militarily, which is, you know, not going to happen in my judgment. Uh the Iranians are too strong and the and their defense is too solid.

[00:17:53]Uh or he's got to walk away. There's no there's no in-between path for him.

[00:17:58]Yeah, but I just think walking away is still a better option. Like if >> [snorts] >> he's got these political, you know, the statements from she or the what the White House claims she said he could use for his base to claim this is a win.

[00:18:10]Um and then so that's one. Number two is the Gulf is pressuring him too as well.

[00:18:15]Uh according to one report, Saudi told Trump the war in Iran should be ended and the Strait of Hormuz should be opened citing {quote} immeasurable economic losses if the situation continues.

[00:18:25]Also, the Saudi again as well today has discussed the idea of a non-aggression pact between Middle East states and Iran as part of talks with allies on how to manage regional tensions. So, they're talking about a pact in the region Mhm.

[00:18:37]which includes Iran to avoid aggression, which is in preparation for, you know, once the American military presence is scaled back. They have to figure out what to do with that.

[00:18:46]The neighbor up north that's wounded and pretty upset at what just happened.

[00:18:51]Um and based on the report again, Saudi, which would have the most influence in the region on on Trump is telling him pretty directly according to this report, and I've seen other similar reports, they can't afford for the war to continue.

[00:19:04]Well, that's true. I mean, economically it is it's uh going to be killing the US economy. The I understand that Walmart and Costco uh were advised by Shell and Mobile Oil that they've got no more product to deliver to them. So, they sell motor oil for, you know, people do their own individual oil changes on their cars.

[00:19:30]Th- There's those shelves are going to be empty within a week. Uh reportedly.

[00:19:35]So, if that report is true, um the the shortage of sulfur has damaged uh an industry Mosaic Mining Company.

[00:19:46]Uh they reported a first-quarter loss of almost uh $400 million.

[00:19:52]So, you know, the economic damage to the West, to Europe, it with each passing day, it's going to keep piling up. This This isn't going away anytime soon.

[00:20:02]Russia and China are negotiating with Turkey and Saudis and Qataris and Iran to for to install a new security architecture.

[00:20:16]And the indications right now is that the Saudis and Qataris are going to going to accept that, which means they're going to push the US bases out of their countries.

[00:20:26]So, the US has already de facto been forced out of many places.

[00:20:32]Uh and and [snorts] this is This is going to confront the UAE with a real dilemma.

[00:20:38]Uh are they going to stick with the losing side? Are they going to sign up with the winners?

[00:20:42]Uh but uh because right now, Iran Iran is willing to let ships pass, but they've they've got to >> Yeah, they said that today. They said that today. Hold on. They said today, Iran's foreign minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz is open for anyone that isn't an enemy of Iran. You just need to pay the tolls. Yeah.

[00:20:59]Yeah, very simple.

[00:21:00]Um and and and the tolls are a consequence of the attack of Israel and the United States on Iran.

[00:21:07]Um so, you know, the Iran saying, "Hey, be our friend.

[00:21:13]You you can haul all the oil and urea and sulfur and helium out that you want and liquid natural gas."

[00:21:23]Uh but but then there's the also the other issue. We don't have a full assessment of how much damage has actually been done to the various the infrastructure in each of those Gulf Arab countries as a result of the war in the first 5 weeks.

[00:21:38]Uh reportedly the damage that Qatar suffered to its uh L its oil plant Ras Laffan the gas field. Yeah, the gas field is quite quite severe.

[00:21:49]So, it may be it may be a year or more before that even comes back online. So, the world's still going to be dealing even if the war ends tomorrow and they say, "Okay, all's done."

[00:22:00]Uh the world's going to be suffering. But again, right now, who's the one that's blockading, preventing other ships from moving? It's the United States. And it's not because they're actually physically able to do it, just the threat that they're presenting leads the insurance companies said, "Okay, we're not going to we're not going to insure that.

[00:22:18]Forget about that."

[00:22:21]Um I'm going to give you this take and let me know what you think.

[00:22:25]Buried in the Trump-Xi White House statement, China agreed to buy more American oil. That's assuming the claim by the White House is true and that the US even has oil to supply China. That's a different discussion. Suddenly, for what I understand, correct me if I'm wrong, the US is a net importer of crude oil, net exporter of refined oil. So, petroleum products. Right. But even that, not that massive an exporter. It's a massive exporter of gas, but oil not so much.

[00:22:50]Um and again, net importer of crude oil from what I understand. Am I correct in saying that? Is that Well, that's that's my understanding and but it's gotten worse. It's been uh exacerbated in the course of the last 11 weeks since the start of this war because the price of West Texas Intermediate has been artificially suppressed.

[00:23:13]And what and so the the the spot market, the future market price is about, you know, 40 to $60 different from what you're actually going to pay when you offload it from the ship. And so as a result, people are buying the West Texas. And so the United States is actually exporting more than it originally intended. It may get to the point the United States is going to have to import impose some export controls.

[00:23:39]So it's not it's not sitting on this, you know, huge reservoir of oil or refined petroleum ready to export. There there are limits there. And so if if China bought anything, it'd just be a token gesture.

[00:23:55]You know, just like just like Well, I was just going to say just like the kid is selling cookies, you know, door-to-door. You know, like they used to make him happy.

[00:24:04]>> [laughter] >> Toss him a buck, you buy the cookies.

[00:24:06]Okay, go away, kid. Leave me alone.

[00:24:09]Uh so I'll give you this thesis. If this true, China gets 40% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It just agreed to sell small from the US instead. Either China expects expects the Strait to stay closed or they've been told Gulf energy infrastructure is about to get hit.

[00:24:25]Iran has already threatened to strike Gulf energy facilities if its own are targeted. The US has confirmed that's on the table. So Trump may have just told Xi the war is continuing and offered American oil as the trade-off for China staying out of it. So the argument here is that Trump went there. Either he told them the war is going to continue or they didn't come to some agreement that they concluded the war will continue.

[00:24:47]And Xi is like, "Yeah, but I need an issue on this oil. If not, I'm going to do X Y Z." And Trump is like, "All right, we'll give you oil.

[00:24:54]But let Let do our war in in Iran. Let us do our thing in Iran. So, the argument is that the US supplying oil to China or China agreeing to buy US oil is the more of a preparation for an inevitable conflict that will continue causing havoc in the in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which China depends on, not the US. So, this is more of a like a gesture for the US in return for something from China, maybe less support for Iran or some other concession on the Chinese side.

[00:25:22]That's one of the theories.

[00:25:23]Yeah, see the um I I I don't want to take credit for his work. Kevin Kevin Walmsley, who has a a channel on YouTube called Inside China Business.

[00:25:35]Uh he he he he he posted a video 2-3 days ago.

[00:25:40]It's called China's oil resilience amid global shock.

[00:25:44]Experts caught off guard again.

[00:25:47]And so, what it pointed out is that said Western analysts, you know, they widely expected that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US actions and get actions against the Venezuelan oil flows would starve China of discounted crude and force them into painful consumption cuts. Send you know, global prices even higher.

[00:26:06]Yeah, for thinking that Beijing was going to be scrambling around looking for oil.

[00:26:10]Uh uh but uh China's oil majors the I mean, the oil producers in China are currently net sellers of crude in both Europe and Asian markets.

[00:26:23]So, inventories inside China, they're not being drawn down.

[00:26:27]And domestic demand has not collapsed.

[00:26:29]Uh and Beijing has not issued emergency conservation orders or slashed industrial output.

[00:26:36]You know, the which moves that both Asian economies and European economies have taken.

[00:26:41]So, um part of part of the way that Brazil insulated that India insulate India China got got too many countries right there. You went all of through through in BRICS, Larry. Yeah, that was so because BRICS is involved with this. So, China has been diversifying through its Belt and Road Initiative. Uh so, uh the example, Africa's largest refinery is built by Chinese engineers in Nigeria.

[00:27:09]And so, China has expanded its oil ties with Brazil. Then you've got record Brazilian oil exports to China, which offset anything that, you know, anything they lost from Venezuela.

[00:27:21]And then uh they they've got uh they've got long-term contracts with producers in Latin America, Central Asia, and Middle East that don't depend on going through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:27:35]Plus, they did strategic stockpiling.

[00:27:37]So, they actually, you know, the United States is they've they've got a false assumption.

[00:27:44]They they decided, oh yeah, China China would they look on some of the paper without really doing the expanded analysis. What are Did China have any alternatives? And the answer