Former senior Pence aide suggests farmers may sour on Trump, GOP over Iran war

Añadido: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Welcome back to Take Out. It's a new op-ed in the Washington Post that suggests the war in Iran and President Trump's trade policies pose some particular risks for Republicans in the midterms with a key coalition, farmers.

[00:00:13]Former Mike Pence chief of staff, Mark Short, points out that 94% of farmers say their financial situation has either worsened or remained the same. That means no one virtually is saying it's got any better. He writes, "Quote, states whose economies rely on agriculture are struggling and it's showing up in the polls." He wrote a lot of other things, but we excerpted that.

[00:00:34]So, let's bring in our political panel and Mark Short, Republican strategist, who wrote the piece, and Democratic strategist Molly Ballinger. So, Mark, you wrote it. Talk to me about it.

[00:00:43]>> Well, Major, thanks for having me back.

[00:00:44]Sure, you're always welcome here. Uh look, I I think that there's no doubt that the price of fertilizer has continued to increase and that's hurting farmers.

[00:00:51]>> Diesel, fertilizer, regular commodities?

[00:00:54]>> Absolutely. But, I think it's also preceded the war with this trade policy.

[00:00:59]>> Tariffs?

[00:00:59]>> And the reality [clears throat] is that not only has tariffs elevated a lot of prices, but it's closed markets. And you know, I I've been somebody who has supported the president's policy largely in the first administration toward China, but his universal attack on trade across the globe has created challenges where now farmers do not have supplemental markets to sell products.

[00:01:19]Canada was one of our primary trading partners in agricultural products and they're not accepting them now because of the the positions this administration has taken toward Canada, who has been one of our allies and best trading partners. And so, >> Does this show up in Iowa? Does this show up in Ohio? Does this show up in Wisconsin? The president's going to be in Wisconsin Friday touting his farmer-friendly agenda.

[00:01:38]>> I think it's going to show up in a lot of farm states, Major. I worry for Republicans there, not just in Iowa. I think where you saw a lower turnout, but you also saw an area where Feenstra was the Trump endorsement candidate. And he comes from the agro part of state part of the state. He's not from an urban part of Des Moines. He's from the agricultural part of the Steve King district that often used to elect Republicans. And the fact that that he I think was overwhelmed by a candidate who's actually from Kansas who just recently moved to Iowa I think is a reflection of the frustration that many farmers are feeling in sense they maybe just won't turn out because they feel like look, I'm not getting help right here and I'm going to stay home and that's going to be really detrimental to Republicans.

[00:02:16]Iowa is a state that voted for Trump by 13 points in 2024, but you know, it's a state that I think is in play for Democrats not just the governor's race but honestly in the Senate race too.

[00:02:26]>> Well, I know you agree with everything you just heard. So I'm not going to >> say it often but this man is brilliant.

[00:02:30]>> [laughter] >> Listen to everything he just said.

[00:02:32]>> your takeaways from California.

[00:02:34]>> Uh California, it's interesting, right? Not long ago my side was freaking out over the possibility that Democrats might be boxed out of the >> governor's race.

[00:02:45]>> governor's race. That's not the case. Uh it looks like at least one >> Xavier Becerra will cruise to victory.

[00:02:51]>> Becerra will be in there and you know, there's still a chance Steyer might be the second. So we'll see. One of the most interesting things though between both the governor's race and the LA mayor's race is that the establishment candidates on the Democratic side seem to actually be leading. The more centrist candidates seem to be leading. Um and we've seen that with a few exceptions but around the country as this primary season progresses is that the center-left in the Democratic Party seems to be still where most of the energy is and California is the latest example of that.

[00:03:28]>> Tom Kean Jr. is a member of Congress from New Jersey, a Republican. He hasn't been on Capitol Hill since March. He won't disclose what's wrong with him or what's going on. The House Speaker says he'll be back eventually. He put out a statement yesterday, I'm coming back but nobody knows why.

[00:03:45]This seems to be a very odd circumstance, Mel.

[00:03:47]>> Yeah. Um look, I give him a lot of grace if he's got a medical condition that he needs to >> tell people what it is.

[00:03:54]>> tell >> people that. That's Republicans were not wrong to demand more transparency from the Biden administration when it came to health, whether it was the president, whether it was Lloyd Austin, the Secretary of Defense when when he had a medical procedure but didn't tell people. That Republicans were not wrong to demand transparency. I think that same standard should apply here.

[00:04:13]>> Mark, >> I think it should apply, too, but I don't think I should let Mo's previous statement stand that it's centrist candidates across the board. In New Jersey, you just nominated a candidate who volunteered with Al-Qaeda in Bosnia.

[00:04:24]He was a defense witness for the World Trade Center bombings. And he's he's now their nominee in New Jersey. You have a candidate in Maine who's a neo-Nazi. And you know, if Republicans Yes, if Republicans were foolish enough to nominate somebody like that, they'd be condemned. When Democrats do it, it's like it's like we're expanding our base and somehow we're reaching new voters.

[00:04:42]And so, the notion that they're actually nominating moderate candidates is absurd.

[00:04:45]>> No, it's not absurd. I did say that there were some exceptions and you just named two of them. But across the board, when when the story of this primary season is is written, I think you'll see more center-left than >> there's anything interesting in American politics to pay attention to if Spencer Pratt makes it into the final two in the LA mayor's race? That's someone who is a reality TV star who put together a couple of whiz-bang virtual ads could run somewhat competitively?

[00:05:09]>> Yeah, I think two My two big takeaways.

[00:05:12]One, um despite what I just said about the center-left and the establishment, there still is an anti-establishment that >> feeling out there that is incredibly strong. Number two, the era of seriousness in our politics seems to be fading very rapidly.

[00:05:26]>> Well, Will Weatherly, you get the last word. Mark Short, great to have you with you. Keep writing those op-eds. We'll have you on the show