⚡ El Niño May Disrupt India's Monsoon, Trigger Extreme Weather Patterns | Monsoon | N18S

追加: 2026-06-05

[00:00:00]Indian Met Department has warned that 2026 monsoon season could turn weaker than normal as developing El Nino conditions are likely to influence global weather systems, which will essentially reshape rainfall patterns across India. [music] Now, do remember few days ago we discussed the El Nino phenomena in detail, but let's quickly remind you once again as to why it finds a mention in every monsoon related conversation [music] in 2026 in particular in India.

[00:00:27]El Nino refers to the abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Not just a local ocean event, [music] it disrupts global wind and pressure systems that control weather across continents. [music] For India in particular, this means the monsoon circulation can weaken, which will reduce the inflow of moisture [music] that normally drives widespread rainfall across the country. Now, according to the latest IMD forecast, the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala by the 4th of June, which is a 9-day delay from the earlier prediction.

[00:00:58][music] And in northern India, particularly Himachal Pradesh, the agency says a fresh western disturbance could also bring rainfall and thunderstorms. And overall, [music] India is expected to receive around 90% of its long-period average rainfall this monsoon, which is, by the way, 2% less than the earlier 92% predicted. [music] And that's where the story really lies, not in the delay in the onset of monsoon so much, but the reason behind the delay. The forecast also shows a high probability of El Nino conditions developing [music] between June and September. So, if this pattern strengthens, if the El Nino phenomena strengthens, [music] it could lead to uneven rainfall distribution. Some regions could receive normal showers, while others could face significant [music] shortfalls during critical farming months. And here's how this year could be different than any other year. Under normal conditions, remember, strong moisture-laden [music] winds from the oceans move steadily across the subcontinent, supporting consistent rainfall. But during El Nino years, here's what happens.

[00:01:57]>> [music] >> Warming in the Pacific weakens these wind systems and as a result the monsoon becomes less organized. Rainfall becomes more erratic and large parts of the country [music] may experience extended dry spells or delayed rain cycles. A weaker monsoon also intensifies heat wave conditions remember across India.

[00:02:15]When [music] rainfall is delayed or reduced, skies remain clear for longer periods and land surfaces heat up faster. [music] This allows temperatures to rise sharply especially in northern and central regions [music] extending heat wave conditions. This entire combination often feeds into higher inflation [music] while also slowing rural demand and overall economic activity across sectors. So the big question now is how prepared is India if this El Nino pattern strengthens further in the coming [music] weeks and what does it mean for both the economy and everyday life?