Burry Says RECESSION | Saylor Says THE BOTTOM IS IN! (Who's Right?)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]The tailwinds for Bitcoin are the catalyst will be >> my base case the bottom is in but it might not be but at least a lot of the fast capital is already out.

[00:00:08]>> Two of three major catalyst that sailor calls is bullish for Bitcoin are in motion and Lyn Alden's base case for Bitcoin is that the bottom is in. But is that ignoring all of the recession indicators that are blinking red right now?

[00:00:18]>> So comments from executives are coming out and they're saying that they haven't seen demand this low since 2008 that this feels like recession levels to them.

[00:00:26]>> The housing market is in a historic crisis. Oil prices are indicating that there's no end to this war in sight.

[00:00:32]Auto delinquencies are at all-time highs. So, what's going to happen? Is Bitcoin going to rise back to 100K? Or will a potentially looming recession drag us back into a bare market? Let's find out on today's episode of Bitcoin Simply. Let's go.

[00:00:49]the tailwinds for Bitcoin or the catalyst will be, you know, uh a sessation or a resolution to the Gulf War, the the the installment of WSH at the Fed, any any loosening or any forward accommodation in the interest rate monetary policy, and then um and then any um positive development ments in in trade, right? And those are all of those are positive catalysts and then the the passage of resolution on the Clarity Act, right? When we get a resolution there, those will be positive macro factors for Bitcoin.

[00:01:34]>> Catalyst number one is in motion. Kevin Wars being elected as the new Fed chair.

[00:01:39]There's a two-step process for that happening. One, he has to be elected to the Federal Board of Governors and then as the Federal Board chair. Step one just happened yesterday.

[00:01:48]>> This vote the yays are 49, the nays are 44, and the motion is agreed to.

[00:01:52]>> Will report the nomination.

[00:01:53]>> The clerk will report the nomination.

[00:01:56]>> Federal Reserve System Kevin Warsh of Florida to be a member of the board of governors.

[00:02:02]>> 49 to 44. Check. Next step, Federal Board. Bye-bye, Jerome. That's a massive step because as we know he stated that he is a Bitcoiner and that his first step is policy and that one of his first steps is policy when he moves into the position is going to be to loosen rates to drive growth. Catalyst number two, the Clarity Act being passed. Late last night, the Senate Banking Committee issued the first draft and updates to the Clarity Act since January. More details are coming out on what the red lines and what the changes are, but it appears that there's optimism on both sides of it passing.

[00:02:37]>> With regard to the Clarity Act, listen, I think we're I think we're on the verge of uh of an agreement here. And uh I think this is going to be very necessary to ensure consumer protections, to ensure certainty for an industry that's burgeoning. We want to make sure it happens here in America, not offshore.

[00:02:53]And uh there's been great leadership by a number of uh of my Senate colleagues uh Senator Hagerty, Senator Lumis, Senator Mareno, who I know you have next. Uh that leadership, I think, has put us in a place where we can hopefully have an agreement here shortly.

[00:03:04]>> This can get wrapped up as soon as Thursday. There's going to be a ton of positive news in capital and cash that are going to flow into the Bitcoin and crypto space at large. But overall, investors aren't so bullish right now.

[00:03:16]They think that Bitcoin and AI are overheated and overhyped right now.

[00:03:19]Michael Bry is case number one. He's opened up an even bigger short on Nvidia and Palunteer than he even did in the great financial crisis. And he's not the only legendary investor who thinks that Bitcoin has lost its investment thesis.

[00:03:32]Uncle Ray Ray Ray Dalio is completely misinformed about Bitcoin. But here's why he says that it's not the safe haven asset that everyone thought it was.

[00:03:41]>> What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?

[00:03:48]There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin. Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled. Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold it. So, it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know, and central banks. there has been um some question or thoughts of the development of you know new technologies like quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that and then there's you know who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio. It tends to have a a pretty high correlation with uh the tech stocks. So from an ownership, you know, just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something whatever else they have. So there are those dynamics. It's a long way as and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market. I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money, you know, it's it's small in relationship to gold. And so, you know, those are the dynamics. There is only one goal.

[00:05:04]>> No privacy. Wrong. Correlated with tech stocks. He hasn't been paying attention clearly because Bitcoin is breaking the trend of being correlated with tech stocks and it's so small that it can be controlled. Wrong. Ray is wrong on all three accounts and he doesn't clearly understand the amount of capital and assets that are going to flow into Bitcoin through the passing of the Clarity Act. Ray doesn't understand that there are companies out there like Micro Strategy who raised $437 million yesterday that are just buying Bitcoin.

[00:05:31]He's thinking about the traditional central bankers. He's not thinking about someone like Michael Sailor acting as if he's a central banker. If the old guard central banks aren't thinking about Bitcoin in this way, well, there's going to be a new central banker in town.

[00:05:45]Michael Sailor, do you hear that clip where he said, uh, is if I'm thinking like a central banker, if I lower the interest rate policy by 0.25%. What's that going to do to the demand that drives into my credit instrument? If we if we get to the point where we've issued a trillion dollars of credit and the company has an equity market cap of $3 trillion, right?

[00:06:10]Yeah.

[00:06:11]>> And we lower the interest rate 25 basis points, you know, we're going to make an obscene amount of money for our equity shareholders in that one month. People are going to go, "Oh my god." Right? you know, they just made billions of dollars for the equity overnight. And that would be equivalent to Amazon having 250 million prime customers and saying we raised the price from $10 to $11. But you can imagine the time when I want to do that is when we own the market like when 5% or 10% of the entire credit market or the treasury market is flipped to digital credit.

[00:06:54]We might. And by the way, we would only do it if the Bitcoin economy slows down.

[00:07:00]If Bitcoin's growing 30% a year, we're just going to continue to drive the credit here. But let's say Bitcoin backs off and Bitcoin's only growing 20% a year, right? Then it's kind of like, you know, if you're the the central bank of Bitcoin or the Reserve Bank, you might think, well, we're going to slightly lower the the interest rate be to keep, you know, to keep things going and not overheat. But that is so many years in the future and that is when Bitcoin's a million dollars coin and we're 10 years out and then we can talk about it. He's talking about numbers of a $3 trillion, $5 trillion, $6 trillion credit market.

[00:07:38]He's thinking in a 10-year horizon with Bitcoin's price being at a million dollars. Sounds like there's going to be a new kind of central banker moving forward. And with that kind of thinking, how much actual supply of Bitcoin is going to be left? Before we go any further, let's thank our sponsors. Letin has been the leader in Bitcoin back loans since 2018, allowing you to be your own bank, your own central bank, borrowing against your own assets to raise fiat dollars in order to pay for your current liabilities. That's exactly what you can do. If you've been buying Bitcoin, don't sell it. Have no capital gains and just borrow against yourself.

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[00:08:18]Top it up anytime and keep the loan rolling. After all, Bitcoin is growing 30 to 40% a year. Don't sell it for fiat. Go to learn.let.io/simply to get started. Speaking of banks, you can become your own bank, your own central bank by running your own node privately. Yes, you can do that, Ray Dalio. You can have a private Bitcoin node where no one can see your transactions because it's run over the tour network. What does that even mean?

[00:08:44]How do I get started doing that? That sounds interesting. Schedule a free 30-minute meeting with the team at the Bitcoin Way and they'll walk you through exactly how to run a node, how to manage your own private keys, and how to beat your own central bank in the world of Bitcoin. Go to the bitcoinway.com/partner/dant-cook to get started. There's recession fears on the horizon right now. It's actually harder to sell at home than it was in the great financial crisis. There's over 600,000 sellers than there are buyers in the market. No one has money to buy houses. And President Trump right now is coming out and saying that his goal is to make housing affordable. It's too unaffordable right now. People are competing with outside investors are competing with high interest rates and there isn't enough economic growth in the economy right now to simulate home buying. And this is the type of thing that Kevin Worsh sees and he's going to start to implement right away. I believe that there's going to be a flood of capital into Bitcoin. He's seeing that household unemployment drop for the fourth straight month. But when you're thinking like a long-term investor, you're not thinking about the short term. you're thinking about the long term. Regardless of whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued at the moment, you don't really care. You understand that it's the most scarce desirable asset in a world moving towards digital credit and digital assets. It's the only asset that can't be copied, replicated, or recreated by some other asset. And this is exactly Lynn's base case right now. The bottom is in, and the long-term trends for Bitcoin look good right now.

[00:10:08]>> Fast money's already out, so you get seller exhaustion. Now whether it's already all like entirely out yet still is an open question. Like my base case at the bottom is in, but it might not be. But at least a lot of the fast capital is already out. Uh we we've seen kind of coins rotate to to strongly more strongly held hands. I think that's a that's a really important kind of factor in kind of building the next base. Uh and then two um changes in liquidity, right? So if you don't have energy shocks that are causing liquidity shortages and you know potentially forcing entities to degross positions from a trading perspective um then that starts alleviating bitcoin. Uh if you see um governments do energy styi checks for example uh and just you know kind kind of like money supply starts accelerating uh in various capacities um that can find its way into scarcer assets. Uh it can find us you know that that's a that's what the the the gold enthusiasts are looking for. That's what the Bitcoin enthusiasts are for. That's that's why some people are willing to hold really top tier stocks even at kind of inflated valuations because they say, "Well, I'm not going to bet against the money printer, so I want to own the the scarcest things even if occasionally they're they're richly priced." Uh, and the good news about Bitcoin is that it's it's not really richly priced at the moment.

[00:11:22]>> Bitcoin is the apex asset. We have Kevin W coming in. We have the Clarity Act that's probably going to get passed in the next several weeks. And we've got Sailor thinking like he's a central banker of Bitcoin. This is bullish and this is why I do think unforeseeing another eruption in the war in Iran that Bitcoin will continue its march towards 100K. The liquidity horizon is going to change in a meaningful way right now.

[00:11:45]Doesn't change my thesis at all, but just giving you some tips and ideas and some alpha which we always drop on this channel if you haven't already subscribed. You know what's also a great thing to do right now is get into Bitcoin mining if you haven't. Mining difficulty is dropping. why hash prices are rising, meaning you're earning more Bitcoin with less competition on the network right now. Don't worry about all that. Just give the team at SAS Mining your money and they will buy you a Bitcoin mining machine. Connected to power, repair it, maintain it, and send SAS straight to your wallet. Use the QR code to get started. This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin Simply. Happy stacking.